Cow Talk – Round 1 – Cowpound Interest

Written by Father Dougal on March 28 2018

“Small or Far Away” Father Dougal on Cows

What is cowpound interest? It isn’t compound interest, where reinvested money add to the profits and gets reinvested and so on etc etc. Cowpound interest is the benefit we get from a player having more rounds on the pitch with which to score points. This is a very obvious idea, and I’m rather frustrated with myself for not thinking about this sooner. For one thing, the math is easy, and  I can so use some easy math at this point in the season!

I was thinking about cows, not like that, and when to sell them and the value of fast money vs slow money. We all know getting to full premo ASAP is good. A few years ago when looking at the winning team one of the big takeaways was how fast he improved him team. Not a huge revelation, but still good to keep in mind. So, I asked myself, not like that, how much value is there from waiting to get a better player? Depends on how much better of course and when.

On round 23 a guy scoring 100/week gets you 100 points. That would be the same value as someone getting you 50/week with two rounds to go. Duh. More likely if you can fill a hole round 22 with a guy who gets 100/week, then that’s better than anyone you can get R23. Mostly still duh. Of course that also that means a player in R22 who scores 80 is likely to be better than anyone you can get R23. A little useful. A round or two left is pretty obvious. How about farther back?

I could bring in a guy who will average 100 on Round 7, or wait and get a guy who will average 120 on Round 10. (Neither plays for Port or Gold Coast) Which is better? Getting the one averaging 100 on R7.  He will play 16 more times, for 1600 total points. the guy scoring 120 starting R10 plays three few matches, so 13 more time, meaning 1560 more points. To find what is needed to break even, you just divide the 1600 by the 13 rounds to get an average of 123.1.

Full chart for a round 7 average of 100.

Left Ave
1 1600.0
2 800.0
3 533.3
4 400.0
5 320.0
6 266.7
7 228.6
8 200.0
9 177.8
10 160.0
11 145.5
12 133.3
13 123.1
14 114.3
15 106.7
16 100.0
17 94.1
18 88.9
19 84.2
20 80.0
21 76.2
22 72.7

The differences add up a lot faster than I expected. I could pick up one of many players on Round 5 who will average 89 and be even with getting someone with a 100 average Round 7.  And Mr 89 is better than getting someone who averages 120 on Round 10.

Full charts with a 100 average at every round below.  While it is more accurate to use rounds left, since byes, I did put round numbers in for players with a bye round 14, just to make it a little easier to see.

Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0 1800.0 1700.0
22 2 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0
21 3 733.3 700.0 666.7 633.3 600.0 566.7
20 4 550.0 525.0 500.0 475.0 450.0 425.0
19 5 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0
18 6 366.7 350.0 333.3 316.7 300.0 283.3
17 7 314.3 300.0 285.7 271.4 257.1 242.9
16 8 275.0 262.5 250.0 237.5 225.0 212.5
15 9 244.4 233.3 222.2 211.1 200.0 188.9
13 10 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0
12 11 200.0 190.9 181.8 172.7 163.6 154.5
11 12 183.3 175.0 166.7 158.3 150.0 141.7
10 13 169.2 161.5 153.8 146.2 138.5 130.8
9 14 157.1 150.0 142.9 135.7 128.6 121.4
8 15 146.7 140.0 133.3 126.7 120.0 113.3
7 16 137.5 131.3 125.0 118.8 112.5 106.3
6 17 129.4 123.5 117.6 111.8 105.9 100.0
5 18 122.2 116.7 111.1 105.6 100.0 94.4
4 19 115.8 110.5 105.3 100.0 94.7 89.5
3 20 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0
2 21 104.8 100.0 95.2 90.5 85.7 81.0
1 22 100.0 95.5 90.9 86.4 81.8 77.3
Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0
22 2 800.0 750.0 700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0
21 3 533.3 500.0 466.7 433.3 400.0 366.7
20 4 400.0 375.0 350.0 325.0 300.0 275.0
19 5 320.0 300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0
18 6 266.7 250.0 233.3 216.7 200.0 183.3
17 7 228.6 214.3 200.0 185.7 171.4 157.1
16 8 200.0 187.5 175.0 162.5 150.0 137.5
15 9 177.8 166.7 155.6 144.4 133.3 122.2
13 10 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0
12 11 145.5 136.4 127.3 118.2 109.1 100.0
11 12 133.3 125.0 116.7 108.3 100.0 91.7
10 13 123.1 115.4 107.7 100.0 92.3 84.6
9 14 114.3 107.1 100.0 92.9 85.7 78.6
8 15 106.7 100.0 93.3 86.7 80.0 73.3
7 16 100.0 93.8 87.5 81.3 75.0 68.8
6 17 94.1 88.2 82.4 76.5 70.6 64.7
5 18 88.9 83.3 77.8 72.2 66.7 61.1
4 19 84.2 78.9 73.7 68.4 63.2 57.9
3 20 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0
2 21 76.2 71.4 66.7 61.9 57.1 52.4
1 22 72.7 68.2 63.6 59.1 54.5 50.0
Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0
22 2 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0
21 3 333.3 300.0 266.7 233.3 200.0
20 4 250.0 225.0 200.0 175.0 150.0
19 5 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0
18 6 166.7 150.0 133.3 116.7 100.0
17 7 142.9 128.6 114.3 100.0 85.7
16 8 125.0 112.5 100.0 87.5 75.0
15 9 111.1 100.0 88.9 77.8 66.7
13 10 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0
12 11 90.9 81.8 72.7 63.6 54.5
11 12 83.3 75.0 66.7 58.3 50.0
10 13 76.9 69.2 61.5 53.8 46.2
9 14 71.4 64.3 57.1 50.0 42.9
8 15 66.7 60.0 53.3 46.7 40.0
7 16 62.5 56.3 50.0 43.8 37.5
6 17 58.8 52.9 47.1 41.2 35.3
5 18 55.6 50.0 44.4 38.9 33.3
4 19 52.6 47.4 42.1 36.8 31.6
3 20 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0
2 21 47.6 42.9 38.1 33.3 28.6
1 22 45.5 40.9 36.4 31.8 27.3
Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0
22 2 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0
21 3 166.7 133.3 100.0 66.7 33.3
20 4 125.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 25.0
19 5 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0
18 6 83.3 66.7 50.0 33.3 16.7
17 7 71.4 57.1 42.9 28.6 14.3
16 8 62.5 50.0 37.5 25.0 12.5
15 9 55.6 44.4 33.3 22.2 11.1
13 10 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0
12 11 45.5 36.4 27.3 18.2 9.1
11 12 41.7 33.3 25.0 16.7 8.3
10 13 38.5 30.8 23.1 15.4 7.7
9 14 35.7 28.6 21.4 14.3 7.1
8 15 33.3 26.7 20.0 13.3 6.7
7 16 31.3 25.0 18.8 12.5 6.3
6 17 29.4 23.5 17.6 11.8 5.9
5 18 27.8 22.2 16.7 11.1 5.6
4 19 26.3 21.1 15.8 10.5 5.3
3 20 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
2 21 23.8 19.0 14.3 9.5 4.8
1 22 22.7 18.2 13.6 9.1 4.5

 

Now, the above charts are just like for like comparisons and don’t take anything else into account.  When making less theoretical decisions you would need to include any other factors. Players in the real world are not usually priced at what they will average for the rest of the season! On the other hand, if you are sure a bloke is going to score at least 85, then there is upside not in the charts, which could make him a better buy.

The below charts assume that you are trading in a cow who is on the field and scoring you 60 each round.

Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 880.0 840.0 800.0 760.0 720.0 680.0 640.0
22 2 470.0 450.0 430.0 410.0 390.0 370.0 350.0
21 3 333.3 320.0 306.7 293.3 280.0 266.7 273.3
20 4 265.0 255.0 245.0 235.0 225.0 230.0 220.0
19 5 224.0 216.0 208.0 200.0 204.0 196.0 188.0
18 6 196.7 190.0 183.3 186.7 180.0 173.3 166.7
17 7 177.1 171.4 174.3 168.6 162.9 157.1 151.4
16 8 162.5 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0
15 9 157.8 153.3 148.9 144.4 140.0 135.6 131.1
13 10 148.0 144.0 140.0 136.0 132.0 128.0 124.0
12 11 140.0 136.4 132.7 129.1 125.5 121.8 118.2
11 12 133.3 130.0 126.7 123.3 120.0 116.7 113.3
10 13 127.7 124.6 121.5 118.5 115.4 112.3 109.2
9 14 122.9 120.0 117.1 114.3 111.4 108.6 105.7
8 15 118.7 116.0 113.3 110.7 108.0 105.3 102.7
7 16 115.0 112.5 110.0 107.5 105.0 102.5 100.0
6 17 111.8 109.4 107.1 104.7 102.4 100.0 97.6
5 18 108.9 106.7 104.4 102.2 100.0 97.8 95.6
4 19 106.3 104.2 102.1 100.0 97.9 95.8 93.7
3 20 104.0 102.0 100.0 98.0 96.0 94.0 92.0
2 21 101.9 100.0 98.1 96.2 94.3 92.4 90.5
1 22 100.0 98.2 96.4 94.5 92.7 90.9 89.1
Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 640.0 600.0 620.0 580.0 540.0 500.0
22 2 350.0 360.0 340.0 320.0 300.0 280.0
21 3 273.3 260.0 246.7 233.3 220.0 206.7
20 4 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0
19 5 188.0 180.0 172.0 164.0 156.0 148.0
18 6 166.7 160.0 153.3 146.7 140.0 133.3
17 7 151.4 145.7 140.0 134.3 128.6 122.9
16 8 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0
15 9 131.1 126.7 122.2 117.8 113.3 108.9
13 10 124.0 120.0 116.0 112.0 108.0 104.0
12 11 118.2 114.5 110.9 107.3 103.6 100.0
11 12 113.3 110.0 106.7 103.3 100.0 96.7
10 13 109.2 106.2 103.1 100.0 96.9 93.8
9 14 105.7 102.9 100.0 97.1 94.3 91.4
8 15 102.7 100.0 97.3 94.7 92.0 89.3
7 16 100.0 97.5 95.0 92.5 90.0 87.5
6 17 97.6 95.3 92.9 90.6 88.2 85.9
5 18 95.6 93.3 91.1 88.9 86.7 84.4
4 19 93.7 91.6 89.5 87.4 85.3 83.2
3 20 92.0 90.0 88.0 86.0 84.0 82.0
2 21 90.5 88.6 86.7 84.8 82.9 81.0
1 22 89.1 87.3 85.5 83.6 81.8 80.0
Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 460.0 420.0 380.0 340.0 300.0
22 2 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0
21 3 193.3 180.0 166.7 153.3 140.0
20 4 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0
19 5 140.0 132.0 124.0 116.0 108.0
18 6 126.7 120.0 113.3 106.7 100.0
17 7 117.1 111.4 105.7 100.0 94.3
16 8 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0
15 9 104.4 100.0 95.6 91.1 86.7
13 10 100.0 96.0 92.0 88.0 84.0
12 11 96.4 92.7 89.1 85.5 81.8
11 12 93.3 90.0 86.7 83.3 80.0
10 13 90.8 87.7 84.6 81.5 78.5
9 14 88.6 85.7 82.9 80.0 77.1
8 15 86.7 84.0 81.3 78.7 76.0
7 16 85.0 82.5 80.0 77.5 75.0
6 17 83.5 81.2 78.8 76.5 74.1
5 18 82.2 80.0 77.8 75.6 73.3
4 19 81.1 78.9 76.8 74.7 72.6
3 20 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0
2 21 79.0 77.1 75.2 73.3 71.4
1 22 78.2 76.4 74.5 72.7 70.9
Round Left Ave Ave Ave Ave Ave
23 1 260.0 220.0 180.0 140.0 100.0
22 2 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0
21 3 126.7 113.3 100.0 86.7 73.3
20 4 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0
19 5 100.0 92.0 84.0 76.0 68.0
18 6 93.3 86.7 80.0 73.3 66.7
17 7 88.6 82.9 77.1 71.4 65.7
16 8 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0
15 9 82.2 77.8 73.3 68.9 64.4
13 10 80.0 76.0 72.0 68.0 64.0
12 11 78.2 74.5 70.9 67.3 63.6
11 12 76.7 73.3 70.0 66.7 63.3
10 13 75.4 72.3 69.2 66.2 63.1
9 14 74.3 71.4 68.6 65.7 62.9
8 15 73.3 70.7 68.0 65.3 62.7
7 16 72.5 70.0 67.5 65.0 62.5
6 17 71.8 69.4 67.1 64.7 62.4
5 18 71.1 68.9 66.7 64.4 62.2
4 19 70.5 68.4 66.3 64.2 62.1
3 20 70.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 62.0
2 21 69.5 67.6 65.7 63.8 61.9
1 22 69.1 67.3 65.5 63.6 61.8

Much more useful. And we can use the magic number to see how much cash a cow needs to make in order to be worth keeping for a while. Our Round 7 cow, for example, needs to make $50,600 in three round to make him worth keeping for those three rounds. This assumes someone to spend that on of course and that the players you would be buying are priced for their average.

This of course means in addition to cash projections in Cow Talk, I should also do trade in projections as well, using their projected growth and current average, which would give a player by player estimate for ideal selling time. Would be extra work each week of course, but, .um… ow…..!!!!!!!

Wow, I’m going to have to finish off this week. Father D’s brain just escaped and is emptying a half of a bottle of rum over itself….which is apparently not enough….

… I directed it to the cheap stuff, since it has no taste buds, hang on…..

…okay I’m going to have to go stop it from getting near any of the candles because that could go really badly, so it looks like this is it for this weeks Cow Talk! 

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14 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 1 – Cowpound Interest”

  1. Assuming the cow is in the 22, what about the points you get for the cow in weeks 8-10?

    Don’t you need to subtract those points from the 100avg for the 3 weeks?

    i.e. if avg is 60 p/w, then the 3 weeks of holding out costs you 120 points total. You then recoup those at the difference of 20 p/w in the above scenario… making waiting a much better option.

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    1. The second set of numbers assumes that you would be replacing a player scoring 60. That’s why the R10 value is 109.2 rather than 123.1. Much lower cost to wait if you are doing an upgrade rather than bringing in a replacement for a donut.

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  2. Brilliant stuff as usual Father.
    Be wary of too much rum though, we don’t want to addle that mathematical analytical brain of yours………

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  3. Well done father, great maths. Shows how important timely trades (good trades) will be worth, There is a price for going early as it is for waiting….lets just hope that the cows fatten. We dont need them to do a Parsons this year, that would be another spanner in the works… Now I raise my glass of Rum to you.

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  4. Good analysis and highlights the point that we probably hang on to our cash rookies for probably 2 to 3 weeks too long. Once their break evens are virtually within 10 points of their priced average then we should be looking to off load to a new rookie where possible or updgrade to a premium if sufficient funds are banked.

    Looking at Tim Kelly (basement valued) if he averages 70 through to round 12 his price would have increased by 210,000 approximately by round 9, however , his price will only increase by a further $22,000 in the following 3 rounds. He may prove to be be a good example as many will keep him until the bye rounds then off load as he appears to have a good ceiling going by his first game score.

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    1. Indeed. It’s often the case that the best time to sell a rookie is not, as most people assume, when their price peaks, but shortly after their rate of price growth peaks.

      This is especially the case when there is a good downgrade target available, because this could enable you to make nearly twice as much cash in about the same period of time as if you had held the original rookie until their peak.

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  5. What the fuck. I’m doing an honours in Aerospace Engineering and I still have no idea what the fuck all those charts are trying to say. I’m sure they are very useful to those who can wrap their heads around all this.

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    1. In short, they’re saying that it’s often better from in terms of total points to get a (presumably cheaper) player who can average, say, 100, earlier than it is to wait a few extra weeks and get a player who can average, say, 120.

      Real world example: you’d probably be better off bringing in Ollie Wines or Trent Cotchin in round 5 than you would be saving up the extra cash to bring in Dangerfield in round 9.

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