Cow Talk – Round 11

Written by Father Dougal on June 1 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

At this point roller coaster weeks are more likely than not. We’ll all need to hold on as we slowly cull the herd and bring in upgrades and backups.

I was really impressed by all the physics jokes in Thommo’s Round 10 Review, even though I didn’t get any of them. I feel inspired to do some priest jokes, if I can find a priest or two help out. Maybe I’ll ask Ted if he knows any priests…..seriously, I just type whatever comes to mind as I go, so the whole “planning” thing isn’t really my bag baby – which would explain my season come to think of it!

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti is having one heck of a rookie season.  I remember watching him play in the pre-season, looking up his price, and then adding him into my team.  He’s averaging 83.5 over the last four matches and his price is about a week from topping out at his season average of 76.3.  I’m hoping he’ll keep his average up until his R15 bye, so he can be replaced by a guy who’s bye has already past. He has a rough schedule after this weeks match vs the Dockers….now there’s something I never expected to write at the start of the season. Dear god, I am actually wondering if Fremantle can beat the suspension ravaged Dons. The Dockers might see this as their big chance to screw up getting the first draft pick win their first match. We’ll find out when we see if Barlow is named….

At his current average of 76.3:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

382,764 14,464 14,464 Dockers
384,713 1,950 16,413 Hawks
383,634 -1,079 15,334 Giants
382,841 -793 14,541 Eagles

Adams came back and got hurt again, but was nice enough to score a fine 84 in his one match cameo. He’s doing well enough when he plays and keep or hold may depend on play or not play. I’d like him to hang on until his bye comes up, but if he isn’t playing that may not be realistic. At his current average of 86.25:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

370,543 14,643 14,643 Eagles
385,382 14,839 29,482 Power
397,280 11,898 41,380 Cats
406,025     ——

M. Brown goes up and down. Which, oddly, is better than staying nice and even, as it give him a higher high at which to be sold. He looks very ripe to me at this point. He could go for 80+ again, or he could go for another sub 40 score. Do you feel lucky coach? Well do ya?  He does play the Dockers next. That does make me feel a bit lucky, so yeah, I do now that I think about it. . His BE is only 51, which shouldn’t be that hard to hit. At his current average of 60.2:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

303,508 4,008 4,008 Dockers
296,406 -7,102 -3,094 Hawks
297,444 1,038 -2,056 Giants
298,207 763 -1,293 Eagles

Dea is set for a drop when that 126 goes out of his three round average.  He’s not going to do that again; this year’s supply of sports miracles was used up be Leicester FC. Sell now or sell next week. Not a lot of risk holding one more week with a 43 BE. At his current average of 74.9:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

394,786 14,086 14,086 Dockers
382,621 -12,165 1,921 Hawks
380,246 -2,375 -454 Giants
378,500 -1,746 -2,200 Eagles

Hartley did the thing we all dread, getting hurt early in a match. As far as injury roulette goes a 19 isn’t that bad. Bad enough though. When he comes back, expect his to start dropping. If I had him I’d plan to get him out before he returns. BE is now 95. At his current average of 62.33.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

279,841 -14,359 -14,359 Dockers
268,993 -10,848 -25,207 Hawks
280,116 11,123 -14,084 Giants
288,291 8,175 -5,909 Eagles

Byrne did not play. Be of 22, so certainly some upside still, when he returns.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

327,671 22,071 22,071 Cats
354,406 26,735 48,806 Lions
356,807 2,401 51,207 Saints
358,572 1,765 52,972 ——-

Weitering has a BE of 68 and an average of 67.25. But, he has a 23 and 38 about to go out of his TRA, so really he has upside still. If you still have him at this point I’d be inclined to hold him and see where he is at his bye.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

274,947 -653 -653 Lions
287,356 12,409 11,756 Saints
287,356     ——-
300,113 12,756 12,756 Giants

Byrne-Jones has a 31 about to go out of his TRA and is looking good for another week or two after last rounds 88. A popular cull last week, he could well make up what he lost and rise up to his bye. Another player I’d probably try and sway out when his bye arrives.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

321,950 16,350 16,350 Pies
342,284 20,335 36,684 Dogs
351,887 9,603 46,287 Dockers
358,945 7,058 53,345

Midfielders

Hewett has a BE of 22, but is actually very close to his price for his average. No reason to get him out this week, if he is named, but after that it may be time. We’ll have another week’s score though before we need to decide. At his current average of 61.11:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

303,756 17,056 17,056 Suns
304,883 1,127 18,183 Giants
304,879 -4 18,179 Demons
304,879

Parish has a BE of 81 which is well over his average of 71.89. He is about as ripe as they get. He did get his price up nicely though. At his current average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

324,980 -3,920 -3,920 Dockers
331,744 6,764 2,844 Hawks
338,871 7,126 9,971 Giants
344,108 5,238 15,208 Eagles

Mills is the poster boy from why expensive rookies are usually a bad risk. He’s topping out not even $150,000 0ver his starting price. Not rush to trade as will creep up a bit more at his 68.2 average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

327,461 9,161 9,161 Suns
331,198 3,737 12,898 Giants
333,593 2,394 15,293 Demons
335,352    

Davis joined us with a shock 90. Wow. Nice timing mate. As long as that 90 is in his TRA his price should go up, and right when it leaves it’s bye (bye) time. Maybe there is a god!  No idea if he can keep scoring over his average of 56.71 but I can hope:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

261,465 33,265 33,265 Swans
281,822 20,357 53,622 Tigers
281,822     ——-
282,117 295 295 Hawks

Oliver did not play last week yet somehow he has numbers. Huh.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

316,457 5,557 5,557 Power
329,167 12,709 18,267 Hawks
332,590 3,424 21,690 Pies
335,107 2,516 24,207 Swans

J Smith is joining us this week, thanks Luke. He has gone up enough he clearly should be included.  He should be able to get a decent amount over $300,000 with more time, and since he is averaging 73.5 I’m hopeful he’ll make more cash right up to his bye. Even then I am not sure; have to see how he looks at the time. At his current average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

308114 19,914 19,914 Power
325615 17,501 37,415 Demons
325615     ——
336496 10,880 10,880 Dockers

Rucks

Cox is the very best American ruck playing for the Pies that you can buy.  If you own him he’s a fine backup, since he’s playing. His price is slowly rising and he tonned up once, which gives hope that he can do it again and push his price up even more.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

269762 5,762 5,762 Power
274365 4,603 10,365 Demons
274365     ——
284725 10,360 20,725 Dockers

Forwards

Kerridge remains ready to harvest if you think you can do without his scores. He seems like he should be F7 maybe; not sure he should be culled. If you think it best do it any time. At his current average of 83.7:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

398,356 10,281 10,281 Lions
396,526 -1,830 8,451 Saints
396,526     ——-
402,100 5,574 5,574 Giants

Kennedy only scored 29 and now has a BE of 96. Blah. He is set to lose not-trivial cash over the next few rounds and he is probably the top harvesting candidate this week. He may make it back someday and we know he can put up good score, but He doesn’t seem like a season keeper. At his current average of 73.3:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

333,174 -10,226 -10,226 Hawks
322,265 -10,909 -21,135 Pies
333,769 11,504 -9,631 Swans
342,224

Papley did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McCarthy did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Cockatoo did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Menadue did not play. What took so long?

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McGovern seems to be topping out. He did break $300,000. His BE this week is only 39, so one more week it looks like now. At his current average of 60.1:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

304,269 9,069 9,069 Saints
305,251 981 10,051 Eagles
305,251     ——-
303,813 -1,438 -1,438 Roos

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

I’d think hard about the byes before making any trades now. Rookies who have the R15 bye are extra nice, since you can play them twice before culling.

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 11”

  1. As entertaining as usual FD. I have cows to cull but nobody to trade.

    I’ll have to control my itchy trigger finger.

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    1. Same Thommo. Several Rookies ready to go, but not many rookies coming through, particularly with good/reasonable JS.

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      1. Fingers crossed Trengove gets up at Melbourne this week for his first game in 2 years. He’ll be a guaranteed 70-80 points per week if he can stay on the park.

        I reckon Roos will consider him a good option to help cover the loss of Viney.

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    2. Thanks mate. Not having many options for downgrades is a real pain. I hoep it get better around the byes!

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  2. Awesome stuff FD, always handy to know if you can hold for another week or two.

    You missed Josh Smith in the midfield or am I going blind?

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Cow Talk – Round 11

Written by Father Dougal on June 10 2015

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

This week and cows….It’s so bad I don’t even want to rhyme swear. Lots of surprise scores; too many of which were the “coal in the stocking” sort.

Defenders

Oxley went mad. If you held him, good on you, wow. A big 122 means his price goes up and breakeven comes down to 78. I don’t have the faintest little clue if he will make that or not. He could do bleeping anything. A 108 W11 makes you $12,800, and a 48 loses you $12,600. But, depending what he does next week, he may even be a keeper through his bye, because that awful 25 leaves his 3 week average, (known from now on as a 3WA), and that means if he breaks even at 78 W11 then a 78 W13 gains you $22,500. After that, he’s at his Priced to Average (PTA) and will hover, going up and down depending on his scores.

Brown had a surprising big score, for him, of 79. (Since a surprise big score for him is something over 65.) With a breakeven (BE) of 30, that means a very likely rise before his bye and maybe even some rise a week after it. If he gets a pair of 50s he’ll make $8,400, bye, $9,000 – and then another 50 loses him $5,300.  Like the Ox, you will want to keep in for W11 and then depending on what he does cull or keep a little longer. Depends on who else you have and such.

McIntosh had another low end score of 54. He made his break even but I think it is clear he has no long term place in my (any) side.  But, it looks like he will have a short term place in my side becuse I need him on the field W12 & W13. Having 18 on the field is more important than small price changes. Maybe even big price changes. Projections if you hold him at 65/round: Bye, $15,600, -$2,200, $3,000.

Saad managed a decent 70 and went up a smidge this week, although his breakeven is now 77 for next week. He could be at his season high price right now, although he might manage a bit more from a surprise good game. There is very little reason to keep him past his bye aside from a need for W13 players.  Since W11 is a bye week and Saad is playing I am going to keep him for the score even if he might lose a little bit. After that, of all the trade I have been thinking about Saad to Hodge is the most certain. Projections if you hold him at 80: $1,200, bye, $1,700.

McKenzie was out with a concussion and hopefully will be back next week. He still is a calf and far from any sort of decision time. I again mention him because I did before – which I probably won’t after this until he grows from calf to cow.

Midfielders

Ellis-Yolman had a crap week, which is no surprise since I had him on the field. (See last week’s great week on the bench.) He actually failed to make his BE of 60, perhaps due to exhaustion from to much time playing with wombats. Or something. (Injury?) He is so gone this week, I think.  In case you want to see how it looks for him in the future, at 80/round: Bye, $4,200, -$7,000, $10,300. Again, if you need him for W12 & W13 it won’t be the end of the world if you keep and play him.

Cripps scored a 99 and missed his breakeven by just 1 point. I can still see either keeping him or culling him depending on your situation. If you are going to cull him this is the obvious time since he has a bye this week. His 68 drops out of his average after his next match, so a score of 90 would see him rise about $9,700 if you hold him to week 12, and another $6,900 if you hold him for W13, which you should, if you do not cash him in W11.

Miller just made it past a half-ton. I did not predict he would fail to make 100 vs the Swans, but if I had I would have been more than right. I hope you got him out last week, although I know some people needed to keep him in order to field a full team and may again this week. I would probably keep anyone who is playing during a bye week. He dropped $19,400 this week and if he keeps up his average of 70 he will drop $10,700 W11 and another $5,100 W13.

Vandenberg tripped over a wombat and left the pitch with a mere 40 and a new BE of 104. Owch. I had expected to hold him until W13 and then swap him out, but now I am wondering if he needs to be replaced right now. I really need him/replacement on the field, and I am worried about price drops. If he makes 75s the next two weeks he’ll go -$12,300 and -$8,800. Assuming he is not hurt, his breakeven is at least within his abilities.

Forwards

Hogan ….. damn mate, couldn’t you have made it just a few more matches before wombat time? A 31, really? A new BE of 98, but the bye rounds mean I play you and watch your price fall. Well, probably, maybe you’ll pop out a ton. That’s isn’t out of the question. I can see Hogan harvested at any time if you have a good guy to bring in for him. That probably means an upgrade, because there is a big shortage of downgrade targets. Maybe a DPP move that lets you bring in a midfielder or something? Projected prices if he makes his average of 77 is -$8,700 and -$12,000.

Clark may play, in which case I would keep him. You need everyone on the field over the byes. If he does not play, I would cull him at your earliest convenience. Still an easy breakeven of 54.

Krakouer, thanks to his wombat loving ways, has been sent back to the VFL. This is good news since it gives time to cull him before his price drops further. In theory, if you don’t think he has made enough to be harvested you could keep him as a DPP loophole guy and hope that some time in the far future he plays often and well enough to be worth banking. I am thinking of doing just that. I’m not sure the money I would make culling him.

Tarrant found himself a wombat to snuggle and scored a below his average 52. Blech. I’m still planning to hold him and sell him at his W13 bye. He should make some of his money back, I hope, and if nothing else he should be on the field for W11 and W12. If he keeps up his new, lower average of 77 he’ll gain back about $7,400 and $9,400 before his bye. With a BE of 60 I don’t see much risk in playing him until he gets slaughtered W13. (Ha ha ha, right up until I said that, now he is dooomed, doooomed I say……)

Lonie has lost what he is going to lose, and with a BE of 13 he should start going back up. If you have him, I’d just keep on holding on since you have already been through the worse of it. If he scores his average 56 he’ll rise $18,200, bye, $6,100

Random Cow Thoughts:

During the byes, a playing cow is a good cow. Have a plan for late outs, probably lots of plans. I would focus more on getting 18+ on the pitch each week rather than prices, assuming the price changes don’t stop you from bringing in who you want.

My current plan has me holding McIntosh because I need him playing W13 and there is nobody I want to downgrade him to, while trading out CEY and Vandenberg, one up and one down. After that, Miller and I have no idea…….and something will probably happen to change all that!

I hope I avoided saying “trading in” this week. I’m so exhausted from all this ruminating on ruminants that I can’t bring myself to go back and check.

 

 

 

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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28 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 11”

  1. Anyone wanting to cash in the likes of McIntosh could look at Alex Pearce.
    Played 2 games with 27 and 74.
    Fero have similar role players like Silvagni, Johnson and Dawson out for 5+ weeks.
    I would think he should play a month or so of footy.
    One to consider.

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  2. Couple of cows and Rocky out
    Any thoughts?

    Cam Ellis-Yolmen will be traded OUT
    Tom Rockliff will be traded OUT
    Patrick Cripps will be traded OUT

    David Mundy will be traded IN
    Callan Ward will be traded IN
    Ollie Wines will be traded IN

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  3. Is Cripps a keeper or not. Now with Judd out perhaps his scores might increase. I have 18 players this week so don’t need to trade him out becausr of his bye, but keen to know if people consider him a good M8 or is it a waste of a spot.Thanks

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  4. This round Im making three trades
    CEY OUT > Boston IN or maybe Glenn depending on teams
    Rich OUT > Selwood IN
    Nic Nat OUT > Goldy IN Had some help form the forums on this one, just been waiting for his price to bottom out and this seems the perfect week to finally get him in the team, much needed

    For the rest of my bye trades ill be trading OUT McIntosh and Saad > IN Hamling and Hodge
    In the last week gonna swing bont down forward and trade OUT Hogan and IN Pendles when he bottoms out to finish off my midfield and forward line

    Leaves me with about 8 trades left to cover injuries and a bit of salary left over to trade in some fallen premiums for bench cover or the backline

    Let me know what you think

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  5. Love your article mate! Brilliant Job as usual!

    I’m culling 3 of those rookies this week.
    Out Cripps, Vanders, McIntosh
    In Selwood, Boston, McGovin

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  6. Out: Bellchambers and Rich
    In: Brooksby and Joelwood.

    Leaves me with only 13 trades but 140K in the bank to complete my defence, then I will have fully upgraded team.

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  7. I’m trying to avoid making trades this week unless really necessary.

    In my mind, why would I want to trade in guys who will be missing a game in the next 2 weeks. Need to get through this week and then look to bring in guys that have had their bye already.

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  8. Only burnt two trades. Vandenberg out, Clark out.

    Missy goes forward. Alex Pearce in and Travis Boak in.

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