Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.
At this point roller coaster weeks are more likely than not. We’ll all need to hold on as we slowly cull the herd and bring in upgrades and backups.
I was really impressed by all the physics jokes in Thommo’s Round 10 Review, even though I didn’t get any of them. I feel inspired to do some priest jokes, if I can find a priest or two help out. Maybe I’ll ask Ted if he knows any priests…..seriously, I just type whatever comes to mind as I go, so the whole “planning” thing isn’t really my bag baby – which would explain my season come to think of it!
Defenders
McDonald-Tipungwuti is having one heck of a rookie season. I remember watching him play in the pre-season, looking up his price, and then adding him into my team. He’s averaging 83.5 over the last four matches and his price is about a week from topping out at his season average of 76.3. I’m hoping he’ll keep his average up until his R15 bye, so he can be replaced by a guy who’s bye has already past. He has a rough schedule after this weeks match vs the Dockers….now there’s something I never expected to write at the start of the season. Dear god, I am actually wondering if Fremantle can beat the suspension ravaged Dons. The Dockers might see this as their big chance to screw up getting the first draft pick win their first match. We’ll find out when we see if Barlow is named….
At his current average of 76.3:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
382,764 | 14,464 | 14,464 | Dockers |
384,713 | 1,950 | 16,413 | Hawks |
383,634 | -1,079 | 15,334 | Giants |
382,841 | -793 | 14,541 | Eagles |
Adams came back and got hurt again, but was nice enough to score a fine 84 in his one match cameo. He’s doing well enough when he plays and keep or hold may depend on play or not play. I’d like him to hang on until his bye comes up, but if he isn’t playing that may not be realistic. At his current average of 86.25:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
370,543 | 14,643 | 14,643 | Eagles |
385,382 | 14,839 | 29,482 | Power |
397,280 | 11,898 | 41,380 | Cats |
406,025 | —— |
M. Brown goes up and down. Which, oddly, is better than staying nice and even, as it give him a higher high at which to be sold. He looks very ripe to me at this point. He could go for 80+ again, or he could go for another sub 40 score. Do you feel lucky coach? Well do ya? He does play the Dockers next. That does make me feel a bit lucky, so yeah, I do now that I think about it. . His BE is only 51, which shouldn’t be that hard to hit. At his current average of 60.2:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
303,508 | 4,008 | 4,008 | Dockers |
296,406 | -7,102 | -3,094 | Hawks |
297,444 | 1,038 | -2,056 | Giants |
298,207 | 763 | -1,293 | Eagles |
Dea is set for a drop when that 126 goes out of his three round average. He’s not going to do that again; this year’s supply of sports miracles was used up be Leicester FC. Sell now or sell next week. Not a lot of risk holding one more week with a 43 BE. At his current average of 74.9:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
394,786 | 14,086 | 14,086 | Dockers |
382,621 | -12,165 | 1,921 | Hawks |
380,246 | -2,375 | -454 | Giants |
378,500 | -1,746 | -2,200 | Eagles |
Hartley did the thing we all dread, getting hurt early in a match. As far as injury roulette goes a 19 isn’t that bad. Bad enough though. When he comes back, expect his to start dropping. If I had him I’d plan to get him out before he returns. BE is now 95. At his current average of 62.33.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
279,841 | -14,359 | -14,359 | Dockers |
268,993 | -10,848 | -25,207 | Hawks |
280,116 | 11,123 | -14,084 | Giants |
288,291 | 8,175 | -5,909 | Eagles |
Byrne did not play. Be of 22, so certainly some upside still, when he returns.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
327,671 | 22,071 | 22,071 | Cats |
354,406 | 26,735 | 48,806 | Lions |
356,807 | 2,401 | 51,207 | Saints |
358,572 | 1,765 | 52,972 | ——- |
Weitering has a BE of 68 and an average of 67.25. But, he has a 23 and 38 about to go out of his TRA, so really he has upside still. If you still have him at this point I’d be inclined to hold him and see where he is at his bye.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
274,947 | -653 | -653 | Lions |
287,356 | 12,409 | 11,756 | Saints |
287,356 | ——- | ||
300,113 | 12,756 | 12,756 | Giants |
Byrne-Jones has a 31 about to go out of his TRA and is looking good for another week or two after last rounds 88. A popular cull last week, he could well make up what he lost and rise up to his bye. Another player I’d probably try and sway out when his bye arrives.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
321,950 | 16,350 | 16,350 | Pies |
342,284 | 20,335 | 36,684 | Dogs |
351,887 | 9,603 | 46,287 | Dockers |
358,945 | 7,058 | 53,345 | – |
Midfielders
Hewett has a BE of 22, but is actually very close to his price for his average. No reason to get him out this week, if he is named, but after that it may be time. We’ll have another week’s score though before we need to decide. At his current average of 61.11:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
303,756 | 17,056 | 17,056 | Suns |
304,883 | 1,127 | 18,183 | Giants |
304,879 | -4 | 18,179 | Demons |
304,879 | – |
Parish has a BE of 81 which is well over his average of 71.89. He is about as ripe as they get. He did get his price up nicely though. At his current average:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
324,980 | -3,920 | -3,920 | Dockers |
331,744 | 6,764 | 2,844 | Hawks |
338,871 | 7,126 | 9,971 | Giants |
344,108 | 5,238 | 15,208 | Eagles |
Mills is the poster boy from why expensive rookies are usually a bad risk. He’s topping out not even $150,000 0ver his starting price. Not rush to trade as will creep up a bit more at his 68.2 average:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
327,461 | 9,161 | 9,161 | Suns |
331,198 | 3,737 | 12,898 | Giants |
333,593 | 2,394 | 15,293 | Demons |
335,352 | – |
Davis joined us with a shock 90. Wow. Nice timing mate. As long as that 90 is in his TRA his price should go up, and right when it leaves it’s bye (bye) time. Maybe there is a god! No idea if he can keep scoring over his average of 56.71 but I can hope:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
261,465 | 33,265 | 33,265 | Swans |
281,822 | 20,357 | 53,622 | Tigers |
281,822 | ——- | ||
282,117 | 295 | 295 | Hawks |
Oliver did not play last week yet somehow he has numbers. Huh.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
316,457 | 5,557 | 5,557 | Power |
329,167 | 12,709 | 18,267 | Hawks |
332,590 | 3,424 | 21,690 | Pies |
335,107 | 2,516 | 24,207 | Swans |
J Smith is joining us this week, thanks Luke. He has gone up enough he clearly should be included. He should be able to get a decent amount over $300,000 with more time, and since he is averaging 73.5 I’m hopeful he’ll make more cash right up to his bye. Even then I am not sure; have to see how he looks at the time. At his current average:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
308114 | 19,914 | 19,914 | Power |
325615 | 17,501 | 37,415 | Demons |
325615 | —— | ||
336496 | 10,880 | 10,880 | Dockers |
Rucks
Cox is the very best American ruck playing for the Pies that you can buy. If you own him he’s a fine backup, since he’s playing. His price is slowly rising and he tonned up once, which gives hope that he can do it again and push his price up even more.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
269762 | 5,762 | 5,762 | Power |
274365 | 4,603 | 10,365 | Demons |
274365 | —— | ||
284725 | 10,360 | 20,725 | Dockers |
Forwards
Kerridge remains ready to harvest if you think you can do without his scores. He seems like he should be F7 maybe; not sure he should be culled. If you think it best do it any time. At his current average of 83.7:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
398,356 | 10,281 | 10,281 | Lions |
396,526 | -1,830 | 8,451 | Saints |
396,526 | ——- | ||
402,100 | 5,574 | 5,574 | Giants |
Kennedy only scored 29 and now has a BE of 96. Blah. He is set to lose not-trivial cash over the next few rounds and he is probably the top harvesting candidate this week. He may make it back someday and we know he can put up good score, but He doesn’t seem like a season keeper. At his current average of 73.3:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
333,174 | -10,226 | -10,226 | Hawks |
322,265 | -10,909 | -21,135 | Pies |
333,769 | 11,504 | -9,631 | Swans |
342,224 | – |
Papley did not play
Price Change Total Change Opponent
McCarthy did not play
Price Change Total Change Opponent
Cockatoo did not play
Price Change Total Change Opponent
Menadue did not play. What took so long?
Price Change Total Change Opponent
McGovern seems to be topping out. He did break $300,000. His BE this week is only 39, so one more week it looks like now. At his current average of 60.1:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
304,269 | 9,069 | 9,069 | Saints |
305,251 | 981 | 10,051 | Eagles |
305,251 | ——- | ||
303,813 | -1,438 | -1,438 | Roos |
Random Cow Thoughts
As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.
I’d think hard about the byes before making any trades now. Rookies who have the R15 bye are extra nice, since you can play them twice before culling.
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I think you referenced to wrong ‘Adams’ who got injured in the Pies V Dogs game 🙂
Aargh, yup. Well, the not injured Adams is looking fine then!
As entertaining as usual FD. I have cows to cull but nobody to trade.
I’ll have to control my itchy trigger finger.
Same Thommo. Several Rookies ready to go, but not many rookies coming through, particularly with good/reasonable JS.
Fingers crossed Trengove gets up at Melbourne this week for his first game in 2 years. He’ll be a guaranteed 70-80 points per week if he can stay on the park.
I reckon Roos will consider him a good option to help cover the loss of Viney.
Thanks mate. Not having many options for downgrades is a real pain. I hoep it get better around the byes!
Awesome stuff FD, always handy to know if you can hold for another week or two.
You missed Josh Smith in the midfield or am I going blind?
I hadn’t added him but clearly he is ready. Now there, thanks!