Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

At this point roller coaster weeks are more likely than not. We’ll all need to hold on as we slowly cull the herd and bring in upgrades and backups.

I was really impressed by all the physics jokes in Thommo’s Round 10 Review, even though I didn’t get any of them. I feel inspired to do some priest jokes, if I can find a priest or two help out. Maybe I’ll ask Ted if he knows any priests…..seriously, I just type whatever comes to mind as I go, so the whole “planning” thing isn’t really my bag baby – which would explain my season come to think of it!

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti is having one heck of a rookie season.  I remember watching him play in the pre-season, looking up his price, and then adding him into my team.  He’s averaging 83.5 over the last four matches and his price is about a week from topping out at his season average of 76.3.  I’m hoping he’ll keep his average up until his R15 bye, so he can be replaced by a guy who’s bye has already past. He has a rough schedule after this weeks match vs the Dockers….now there’s something I never expected to write at the start of the season. Dear god, I am actually wondering if Fremantle can beat the suspension ravaged Dons. The Dockers might see this as their big chance to screw up getting the first draft pick win their first match. We’ll find out when we see if Barlow is named….

At his current average of 76.3:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

382,764	14,464	14,464	Dockers
384,713	1,950	16,413	Hawks
383,634	-1,079	15,334	Giants
382,841	-793	14,541	Eagles

Adams came back and got hurt again, but was nice enough to score a fine 84 in his one match cameo. He’s doing well enough when he plays and keep or hold may depend on play or not play. I’d like him to hang on until his bye comes up, but if he isn’t playing that may not be realistic. At his current average of 86.25:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

370,543	14,643	14,643	Eagles
385,382	14,839	29,482	Power
397,280	11,898	41,380	Cats
406,025			——

M. Brown goes up and down. Which, oddly, is better than staying nice and even, as it give him a higher high at which to be sold. He looks very ripe to me at this point. He could go for 80+ again, or he could go for another sub 40 score. Do you feel lucky coach? Well do ya?  He does play the Dockers next. That does make me feel a bit lucky, so yeah, I do now that I think about it. . His BE is only 51, which shouldn’t be that hard to hit. At his current average of 60.2:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

303,508	4,008	4,008	Dockers
296,406	-7,102	-3,094	Hawks
297,444	1,038	-2,056	Giants
298,207	763	-1,293	Eagles

Dea is set for a drop when that 126 goes out of his three round average.  He’s not going to do that again; this year’s supply of sports miracles was used up be Leicester FC. Sell now or sell next week. Not a lot of risk holding one more week with a 43 BE. At his current average of 74.9:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

394,786	14,086	14,086	Dockers
382,621	-12,165	1,921	Hawks
380,246	-2,375	-454	Giants
378,500	-1,746	-2,200	Eagles

Hartley did the thing we all dread, getting hurt early in a match. As far as injury roulette goes a 19 isn’t that bad. Bad enough though. When he comes back, expect his to start dropping. If I had him I’d plan to get him out before he returns. BE is now 95. At his current average of 62.33.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

279,841	-14,359	-14,359	Dockers
268,993	-10,848	-25,207	Hawks
280,116	11,123	-14,084	Giants
288,291	8,175	-5,909	Eagles

Byrne did not play. Be of 22, so certainly some upside still, when he returns.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

327,671	22,071	22,071	Cats
354,406	26,735	48,806	Lions
356,807	2,401	51,207	Saints
358,572	1,765	52,972	——-

Weitering has a BE of 68 and an average of 67.25. But, he has a 23 and 38 about to go out of his TRA, so really he has upside still. If you still have him at this point I’d be inclined to hold him and see where he is at his bye.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

274,947	-653	-653	Lions
287,356	12,409	11,756	Saints
287,356			——-
300,113	12,756	12,756	Giants

Byrne-Jones has a 31 about to go out of his TRA and is looking good for another week or two after last rounds 88. A popular cull last week, he could well make up what he lost and rise up to his bye. Another player I’d probably try and sway out when his bye arrives.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

321,950	16,350	16,350	Pies
342,284	20,335	36,684	Dogs
351,887	9,603	46,287	Dockers
358,945	7,058	53,345	–

Midfielders

Hewett has a BE of 22, but is actually very close to his price for his average. No reason to get him out this week, if he is named, but after that it may be time. We’ll have another week’s score though before we need to decide. At his current average of 61.11:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

303,756	17,056	17,056	Suns
304,883	1,127	18,183	Giants
304,879	-4	18,179	Demons
304,879			–

Parish has a BE of 81 which is well over his average of 71.89. He is about as ripe as they get. He did get his price up nicely though. At his current average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

324,980	-3,920	-3,920	Dockers
331,744	6,764	2,844	Hawks
338,871	7,126	9,971	Giants
344,108	5,238	15,208	Eagles

Mills is the poster boy from why expensive rookies are usually a bad risk. He’s topping out not even $150,000 0ver his starting price. Not rush to trade as will creep up a bit more at his 68.2 average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

327,461	9,161	9,161	Suns
331,198	3,737	12,898	Giants
333,593	2,394	15,293	Demons
335,352			–

Davis joined us with a shock 90. Wow. Nice timing mate. As long as that 90 is in his TRA his price should go up, and right when it leaves it’s bye (bye) time. Maybe there is a god!  No idea if he can keep scoring over his average of 56.71 but I can hope:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

261,465	33,265	33,265	Swans
281,822	20,357	53,622	Tigers
281,822			——-
282,117	295	295	Hawks

Oliver did not play last week yet somehow he has numbers. Huh.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

316,457	5,557	5,557	Power
329,167	12,709	18,267	Hawks
332,590	3,424	21,690	Pies
335,107	2,516	24,207	Swans

J Smith is joining us this week, thanks Luke. He has gone up enough he clearly should be included.  He should be able to get a decent amount over $300,000 with more time, and since he is averaging 73.5 I’m hopeful he’ll make more cash right up to his bye. Even then I am not sure; have to see how he looks at the time. At his current average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

308114	19,914	19,914	Power
325615	17,501	37,415	Demons
325615			——
336496	10,880	10,880	Dockers

Rucks

Cox is the very best American ruck playing for the Pies that you can buy.  If you own him he’s a fine backup, since he’s playing. His price is slowly rising and he tonned up once, which gives hope that he can do it again and push his price up even more.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

269762	5,762	5,762	Power
274365	4,603	10,365	Demons
274365			——
284725	10,360	20,725	Dockers

Forwards

Kerridge remains ready to harvest if you think you can do without his scores. He seems like he should be F7 maybe; not sure he should be culled. If you think it best do it any time. At his current average of 83.7:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

398,356	10,281	10,281	Lions
396,526	-1,830	8,451	Saints
396,526			——-
402,100	5,574	5,574	Giants

Kennedy only scored 29 and now has a BE of 96. Blah. He is set to lose not-trivial cash over the next few rounds and he is probably the top harvesting candidate this week. He may make it back someday and we know he can put up good score, but He doesn’t seem like a season keeper. At his current average of 73.3:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

333,174	-10,226	-10,226	Hawks
322,265	-10,909	-21,135	Pies
333,769	11,504	-9,631	Swans
342,224			–

Papley did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McCarthy did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Cockatoo did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Menadue did not play. What took so long?

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McGovern seems to be topping out. He did break $300,000. His BE this week is only 39, so one more week it looks like now. At his current average of 60.1:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

304,269	9,069	9,069	Saints
305,251	981	10,051	Eagles
305,251			——-
303,813	-1,438	-1,438	Roos

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

I’d think hard about the byes before making any trades now. Rookies who have the R15 bye are extra nice, since you can play them twice before culling.

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