Cow Talk – Round 12

Written by Father Dougal on June 8 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

The next four weeks are when we need our cows the most. Well, not them exactly, but rather the sweet, sweet money we get from the sale of their ripe bodies. Or in some cases their unripe bodies. Or in a few their points, since getting 18 on the field each week during the bye rounds can be a real bear.

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti is still pumping out good scores with an 80 for last round. He’s ripe and ready, with little growth left. A big score will of course give him and bump, and a bad one a dip. Harvest him now or on his bye, however works for you.

At his current and barely changed from last week average of 76.63:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

387,989 3,189 3,189 Hawks
387,969 -20 3,169 Giants
      ——
386,472 -1,497 1,672 Eagles

Adams plays for the Dogs, not the Pies, and I completely spaced last week not catching it was the Collingwood Adams  that was injured. D’oh, sorry about that. Numbers still worked though, as did he, putting out a nice 85. He’ll keep growing up to his bye and probably beyond, although more slowly as time passes. I’m not sure if I’ll end up trading him out at all, he may be a great D7 if you can afford to keep him. Maybe even a D6 for the trade poor. At his current and also barely changed average of 86.11:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

384,665 14,265 14,265 Power
396,080 11,415 25,680 Cats
      ——
404,959 8,880 34,559 Swans

M. Brown goes up and down and down with more down. Do you feel lucky coach? Well do ya?  He does play the Dockers next. That does make me feel a bit lucky, so yeah, I do now that I think about it. D’oh again, he scored another 29 and managed to miss his BE of only 51, which shouldn’t have been that hard to hit. His new break even is 99, which is over his best score this season. Somehow I don’t think he’s going to make that playing the Hawks. He needs to be harvested before he can bleed out more cash. At his current average of 57.37:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

271,553 -18,547 -18,547 Hawks
262,928 -8,625 -27,172 Giants
      ——
269,088 6,160 -21,012 Eagles

Dea  Sell now or sell next week. Not a lot of risk holding one more week with a 43 BE. Indeed, he went for 48 and managed to avoid dropping last week. Sell now because that 126 leaves his system and his BE of 121 looks like a big smidge more than he is going to score vs the Hawks. At his current average of 72.45:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

361,321 -22,079 -22,079 Hawks
350,580 -10,740 -32,820 Giants
      ——
353,463 2,883 -29,937 Eagles

Hartley did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Byrne did play but only scored 49 again. BE of just 29, so certainly some upside still. Unless he goes mad next week he looks like a prime harvest over his bye. At his current average of 69.88:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

335,103 17,603 17,603 Saints
      ——-
329,478 -5,625 11,978 Giants
334,542 5,065 17,042 Pies

Weitering If you still have him at this point I’d be inclined to hold him and see where he is at his bye. Finally, advice that looks good in hindsight! Pumped out his 2nd ton and made the dollars with more on the way. If he just hits his average then it is a big decision as far as keep or trade at his bye. Another good score and its time to ride the big blue A-frame to profit, another 23 or 38 and its time to bail. At his current average of 63.56:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

327,093 28,093 28,093 Saints
      ——-
349,750 22,656 50,750 Giants
341,088 -8,662 42,088 Pies

Byrne-Jones has a BE of just 35, so looks likely to make some money up to his bye, when its hammer (to the head) time. Not the other Hammer Time; I deny even knowing about that, and I was young and drunk at the time.  Early hopes that he would be a season keeper have not really panned out, but he’s made enough cash to pay for a big entourage if your into that sort of thing. At his current average of 75.56

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

345,397 17,297 17,297 Dogs
352,627 7,230 24,527 Dockers
      ——
359,067 6,440 30,967 Lions

Midfielders

Hewett had a BE of 22, which he missed, thanks to another bad session of injury roulette. My write up of Hartley last week was NOT a challenge to the rest of the league, really. You can stop the early in the match injuries any time, with any time meaning immediately. He hasn’t made us much, and now I worry he never will. Holding him long term is a, well, long term gamble. With his not very high price set to plummet, I’d trade him out before he plays again if you can spare the trade, otherwise he could hang around a long time. At his current average of 56.1:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

264,361 -17,312 -17,312 Giants
248,596 -15,765 -33,076 Demons
      ——
256,884 8,287 -24,789 Dogs

Parish is ripe and ready. His BE of 65 is about his average of 70.6 and he is pretty much priced to his average. Trade Mr. Dull out now or at his bye. (Tempting fate with that bit, but what the heck, I don’t own him!)  At his current average of 70.6:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

321,616 1,916 1,916 Hawks
324,610 2,995 4,910 Giants
      ——
331,923 7,313 12,223 Eagles

Mills did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Davis gave hope last week, then I saw his score and now I’m a believer! He had a very disappointing start to the season but that was then, this is now. And oh my my his is BE is -10! He plays the Tigers this pleasant valley Sunday after which he’ll be my stepping stone to a premium.  I’ll get to full premo soon, yes I will. My mid-price madness fail has turned me into a star collector. Sadly, his price looks likely to be goin’ down soon after his bye, although projections more than a few weeks out are only shades of gray rather than black or white;  At his current average of  60.125:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

304,489 30,589 30,589 Tigers
      ——-
313,807 9,318 39,907 Hawks
310,135 -3,672 36,235 Saints

Oliver is rapidly closing in on his price for his average. With a BE of just 39 he looks like a good “sell at the bye” guy. At his current average of 68.625:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

329,778 12,778 12,778 Pies
333,276 3,498 16,276 Swans
      ——
335,681 2,406 18,681 Crows

J Smith should be able to get a decent amount over $300,000 with more time, and even with a bland 65 last week that seems still true. I’m thinking he may have to go at his bye but if he has a monster score next week that can be rethought. And he does play on the difficult R14, so if you are in need of warm bodies that week it does not, not looking too bad to hold onto him until the byes are done. Next week will clue us in I hope. At his current average of 72.29:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

318899 14,099 14,099 Demons
      ——
326,743 7,844 21,943 Dockers
335,719 8,976 30,919 Blues

Rucks

Cox may have saved Goldstein’s owners a donut last week, and might do the same for NicNat’s owners this week. He’s not making big cash but is making some, and he seems pretty secure in the best 22. (Hope I’m not jinxing that.)  At his current average of 63:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

275568 4,968 4,968 Demons
      ——
286,271 10,702 15,671 Dockers
293,696 7,426 23,096 Blues

Forwards

Kerridge had a wonderful 126 last week and really pumped up the volume on his price-O-meter. Another R13 bye player with awkwardly timed peak value. Sell at the bye, or hold longer? If he puts out another big score this week it may make sense to wait until the byes are done to cull him; assuming he gets culled at all. His average is up to 87.55 and while that is not the 100+ we want in our starting 6 forwards, it comes without a trade being used. I can see that either way.  At his current average of 87.55:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

430,785 13,485 13,485 Saints
      ——-
449,310 18,525 32,010 Giants
445,980 -3,330 28,680 Pies

Kennedy did not play:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Papley did not play and if he is not back soon may be dropped from the post.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McCarthy finally played another match; the cat came back! If you held him this long keep holding him; his price will go up when that 15 leaves his TRA. At his current average of 56.14:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

235156 -11,144 -11,144 Roos
245128 9,971 -1,172 Dogs
255196 10,068 8,896 Saints
      ——-

Cockatoo did not play and is dropped from the post until he shows back up.

Menadue did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McGovern seems to be topping out. And now seems to have topped out. I’d hold one more week and hope he doesn’t go full DEVO in the week before his R13 bye.  At his current average of 59.91:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

303,823 123 123 Eagles
      ——-
301,669 -2,153 -2,031 Roos
300,928 -741 -2,772 Demons

Petracca joins us, thank you Freo Tragic

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

324,505 12,405 12,405 Pies
344,567 20,061 32,467 Swans
      ——
353,510 8,943 41,410 Crows

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

All trading should be heavily Bye focused from now until R15 is done. I expect that is not news to anyone.

I hope nobody has Brown and Dea and Hewett; we don’t often see three guys all poised to suffer big losses in the same week. If you do have the whole set, I’ll say a prayer for you.

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17 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 12”

  1. As always, I thank you for the analysis. I do not thank you for the image of harem pants beneath a cassock.

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  2. He He.

    Hammer Time.

    You seem to be back in fine form again Father. Bless you.

    Just want to mention the the enigma that is D Gorringe

    I bought him in on the bubble last week to cover Goldie.

    He scored a very respectable 92.

    He is averaging 72 and has a break even of just 11.

    He may find himself on the field if Nic Nat doesn’t get up this week

    He also gives me 2 rucks on field all through the Byes.

    Fingers crossed he keep getting a game for the much improved blues.

    After the byes I plan to upgrade him to Tippett/ Lycett.

    Thanks again for the awesome write up.

    I look forward to it every week.

    Dea gone this week. I think I’m going to hold on Brown until his round 14 bye then he will be upgraded to Rance. It will cost me some dollars but I don’t want to trade in Rance the week before his bye. Heres hoping he surprises every one and gets 80 odd this week and next.

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  3. Forgive me Father

    Is Petracca not another cow that may be ready to harvest around his r14 bye?

    Or is everyone planning to keep him as dpp swing F7 or M9?

    Thanks again.

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    1. Personally I have more than enough DPPs between the MIDs & FWDs (Wells, Greene, Hall & Barlow). For that reason, I don’t think Petracca will be in my side after the Bye Rounds……….

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      1. What about on your Mids bench?

        I plan on having all my 8 mids as mid only premiums with a ddp on my mids bench. There just doesn’t seem to be to many M/F rookies coming through this year. I have Barlow,Wells,Kerridge. and Dusty as M/F and Wingard in my forwards and want to add Zorko . Then maybe upgrade Kerridge to Doll house or Lids.It seems a bit of a waste to play a M/F premo at M8.

        Petracca seems like perfect M9 candidate to me.

        I’d be interested to here other theories on this?

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        1. I see Barlow or Greene as the perfect loophole options for F7/M9. Capable of a big ton, but moe likely than not, happy to leave their 60-70 sitting on the bench 😉

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        2. I will most probably be keeping Petracca either as a F6 or a M9,depending on how my fwds go,at the moment I’m only really happy with Dusty,Wells and Kerridge as keepers,so Petracca could fit quite well as a F6.Looking at Zorko and Buddy/Dahlhaus to make up the other two places.

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  4. Sounds like you are a Daydream Believer of Ryan Davis. But we want continued high scores and not just Words. However, if he is still in your team after the byes he might be thinking to himself What am I doing hangin’ round!
    (The Monkees were a manufactured band but still put out some great songs. Not just takin’ the Mickey (Dolenz))!!

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    1. Oh what a feeling when someone gets the obscure (?) stuff 🙂

      Indeed, they were sort of the first boy band, but had actual talent and songs that have endured.

      Love the reply in the same style. Cooperative humor, a little bit me and a little bit you!

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      1. I’m trying not to Listen To The Band (wagon) about Ryan Davis, but For Pete’s Sake changes have to be made. Don’t Listen to Linda – get off the Last Train (to Clarkesville) and ditch him – he was just a Stepping Stone.

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Cow Talk – Round 12

Written by Father Dougal on June 17 2015

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

Not much bovine action last week with so many cows not playing due to byes and injuries.

Defenders

Oxley went mad again. Three weeks ago I predicted he’d end up gaining maybe $10-30k before the bye. Then I thought I was way wrong after his low score, and then and then. Reminds me of a song….”How many predictions about Oxley must a man make before he can call himself baffled and give up?” I’m thinking three. Turns out that he went up $4,600 and not $10-30k. Now that he is at his bye, it is prime time to cash him in. If you want to keep him, he is due for a big price rise after he next plays. If he hits his season average of 84 he’ll go up $33,600 W13 and then $9,100 W14, before starting a slow slide downward to meet his PTA. Of course who knows what he’ll actually do, I sure don’t!

Brown had another surprising big score, for him, of 74. (Since a surprise big score for him is something over 65.) His new BE is just 11. Of course he is still Nathan Brown and it is W12 when he has his bye. So, like Oxley, this is when most people will be milking him. If you don’t, his udders will hurt, and he’ll make you $18,900 if he hits his average of 55. Another 55 adds $3,700 before he’ll start to drop again.

McIntosh didn’t play due to bye. Projections if you hold him at 65/round: $15,600, -$2,200, $3,000.

Saad managed a fine 96 and went up a another smidge this week. If he keeps on at his current average of 83.5 he’ll sneak up a bit more for a while: $8,300 $11,900, and $3,600 – After the bye of course. I plan to harvest him, because I want player who averages more than 83.5. That was a fine average for a growing cow, fattened him right up, but do you really want that starting for you? I don’t.

Midfielders

Ellis-Yolman did not play due to bye. If you keep him, at 80/round: $4,200, -$7,000, $10,300. Most people already culled him. Of course he is playing now, so if you have not culled him yet he may be the wrong guy to trade out until W14. Playing cows are good cows.

Cripps also didn’t play due to bye. Again, a score of 90 would see him rise about $9,700 if you hold him week 12, and another $6,900 if you hold him for W13, which you should, if you did not cash him in W11.

Miller made a nice 82 to limit his drop. Now, you trade him out. At his average of 71 he’ll lose $700, then gain $7,100, then slowly drop off. With a W12 bye, and it being W12, few teams will be in a place where keeping him makes sense.

Vandenberg didn’t play because he is hurt. Put him down and stick a fork in him, he’s done. Have fun spending all that nice cash.

Forwards

Hogan really limited his losses by going for 93. Thank you lots! He will play this week, so again, a playing cow is a happy cow and I am keeping him until his bye W13. If he makes his 78 average he’ll lose $6,700. Who knows, he might even make his BE of 94, he almost did last week. I’ll gladly accept a $6,700-ish loss in return for 18 on the field.

Clark did not play due to injury and has been ruled out for this week, so I would cull him at your earliest convenience. Still an easy BE of 54, but so what? Out this round and next means swap him for someone who will play over the byes.

Krakouer played in the VFL. It is possible he will return when Port gets to promote a player R12. If he does play again he will lose non trivial cash for a while. I would either trade him before his price drops or hang onto him a long time. Anything else seems sub-optimal. I had been thinking of keeping him but decided to trade him in instead of a playing forward like Hogan, since I got lucky and the math worked out. Your situation may be different. Oh, and non-trival cash means at 60/round -$20,600 and then -$6,500.

Tarrant seems to be getting worse and the season goes on. His highest score over the last 4 weeks is lower than his lowest score (well scores, 3 78s) from the first five week. Long ago I was thinking I might hold him through the byes since he has such good fixtures post byes, but that seems like a bad plan now. I’ll play him this week and harvest him next week. If he goes 68 this week he breaks even. His average is higher, but, again, dropping every week……

Lonie is on his way back up, having gained $29,400 last week. With a BE of just 25 now, he should go up $14,300 and $11,600 after the bye if he hits his average of 58 both weeks. I can see that and more. Nothing wrong with culling him if you need to get in someone playing this week, but no urgency otherwise. He has more upside than a lot of the other cows with a W12 bye.
Random Cow Thoughts:

There are a lot of calves in teams now, but none fat enough to harvest.

At this point all of the players brought as tradedowns are probably not going to be harvested, so profit potential is not the only factor to think about. Over the byes, JS is king.

 

 

 

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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6 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 12”

  1. Do you guys think lever or Mackenzie will make it back into the sides. I really want to get hamling if he is named.

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