Cow Talk – Round 13

Written by Father Dougal on June 15 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

Week 13, the unlucky week. Well, maybe an unlucky week this season. One of many for most of us. But now it is Hogswatch Cowswatch; the happy time when the Hogfather Cowfather helps us celebrate the slaughtering season with pork beef products. So, what is in our socks by the fireplace this year? Hopefully we shall find out, unlike last year when Mrs. Doyle lit a fire and Father Jack’s sock exploded.

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti did not play last week, which was definately not a nice surprise.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Adams had a fine week with an 85 and looks safe to keep his value up to his bye.  What more could we want? As an Adams owner you would think I would have remembered he didn’t play last week. I blame inadequate beer consumption. At his current average of 86.11:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

384,665 14,265 14,265 Cats
      ——
396,080 11,415 25,680 Swans
404,959 8,880 34,559 Tigers

M. Brown has new break even of 71, which is over his best score over the last three weeks, but at least possible. Unless you are really fortunate with the number of players you have for this week he looks like worth keeping until his bye even though he could lose some value. At his current average of 58.08:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

269,879 -5,521 -5,521 Giants
      ——
275,148 5,269 -252 Eagles
279,021 3,873 3,621 Saints

Dea  his BE of 121 looks like a big smidge more than he is going to score vs the Hawks. Well, if big smidge is about 27, which is the difference between his score of 94 and his last weeks BE, I nailed it. Sadly that was dumb luck, since I was using big smidge in a theoretically humorous way to indicate I thought he had no shot of making 121, which rather short odds. But I’ll take any right looking prediction I can get! Looks pretty safe to hold up to his bye. At his current average of 72.25:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

367,907 -2,993 -2,993 Giants
      ——
377,275 9,368 6,375 Eagles
375,457 -1,818 4,557 Saints

Hartley did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Byrne went for 49 two weeks ago week and 48 last week, which was enough to pump his price up usta bit before his bye. He sure looks ready to be traded out, and at just the right time. At his current average of 67.44:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

325,500     ——-
311,709 -13,791 -13,791 Giants
309,700 -2,009 -15,800 Pies
316,793 7,092 -8,707 Crows

Weitering Has his bye this round, with a BE of 16 meaning he’ll go up the round after the bye. Which really doesn’t matter much unless you have so many R13 bye cows you need to pick which one to let live. At his current average of 71.7:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

324,645     ——-
349,091 24,446 24,446 Giants
345,334 -3,758 20,688 Pies
348,609 3,275 23,964 Crows

Byrne-Jones looks ready. No reason to get out before his bye next week and no reason to keep him past it.  At his current average of 74.2:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

341,721 2,221 2,221 Dockers
      ——
343,883 2,162 4,383 Lions
350,848 6,965 11,348 Hawks

Midfielders

Hewett did not play. I’m thinking of tradin ghim out this week to avoid the price drop is he is named, depending on who all is named. Even at his lowish price I am ready to replace him, especially after a concussion. 

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Parish gave his price a nice little bump but he still looks ready to go at his bye. At his current average of 71.09:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

328,959 4,959 4,959 Giants
      ——
337,932 8,973 13,932 Eagles
342,363 4,432 18,363 Saints

Mills came back and put up a respectable 74. Looks fine to play until his R14 bye after which he is probably surplus to requirements. And wow are there are a lot of R14 cows all looking ready to harvest.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

335,926 5,826 5,826 Demons
      ——
337,764 1,838 7,664 Dogs
339,116 1,351 9,016 Cats

Davis rose up a lot last week and has a bye this week. He’ll very likely go up a bit more if you can’t manage to trade him in on his bye. His current average is below his last 4 scores, so I think he could at least hold his value if played after R14.  At his current average of  60.67:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

306,700     ——-
317,819 11,119 11,119 Hawks
315,709 -2,110 9,009 Saints
312,249 -3,460 5,549 Lions

Oliver  With a BE of just 39 he looks like a good “sell at the bye” guy. Yeah that. Looks to have peaked with high or lows scores ready to push him around in the short term. At his current average of 67.11:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

322,211 -1,589 -1,589 Swans
      ——
320,210 -2,001 -3,590 Crows
324,077 3,867 277 Dockers

J Smith Next week will clue us in I hope. A score of 42 gave us The Answer! Sell him now because he is ready. At his current average of 68.5:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

305600     ——
301,954 -3,646 -3,646 Dockers
300,817 -1,137 -4,783 Blues
311,659 10,842 6,059 Giants

Rucks

Cox may have saved Goldstein’s owners a donut last week, and might do the same for NicNat’s owners this week. Well, off by a week, since NicNat is now out. If you have cox you have cover, although with NicNat out so long he isn’t really a good long term solution. Or short term since his bye is this week.  At his current average of 61.25:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

269400     ——
274,796 5,396 5,396 Dockers
277,551 2,754 8,151 Blues
284,974 7,423 15,574 Giants

Forwards

Kerridge has been grand, but it’s probably time for him to go. If you are doing so well at going premo that you can keep him at F7 or are doing so badly he’s the best you will ever get for F6, then keeping him makes sense. Otherwise I think he has to go. I know I need the money and I’m not letting Ted near it this time….  At his current average of 87:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

427,900     ——-
444,064 16,164 16,164 Giants
438,759 -5,305 10,859 Pies
437,504 -1,255 9,604 Crows

Kennedy score a 94 but still went down a tiny bit and his BE is 83. Nice. Nice, not thrilling, but nice. He could even :

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

338,924 -3,376 -3,376 Swans
      ——
356,794 17,870 14,494 Crows
361,635 4,842 19,335 Dockers

Papley did not play and if he is not back soon may be dropped from the post.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McCarthy only scored 38, so who knows how long he’ll stay in the side. Of course they won, so maybe that won’t matter.  At his current average of 53.875:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

229649 3,249 3,249 Dogs
233757 4,108 7,357 Saints
      ——-
243,035 9,278 16,635 Swans

Menadue did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McGovern is at his bye, so you can sell him! Oh joy.   At his current average of 59.91:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

299,900     ——-
294,533 -5,367 -5,367 Roos
291,102 -3,431 -8,798 Demons
292,180 1,077 -7,720 Blues

Petracca may well be rile just as his bye arrives. Still likely to rise a bit after his bye if you need to keep him. At his current average of 77.71:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

355,530 25,130 25,130 Swans
      ——
369,028 13,498 38,628 Crows
373,975 4,947 43,575 Dockers

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

Nothing like a mass of injuries to mess up bye planning! Good luck over the next few weeks.

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14 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 13”

    1. They are all lower priced then I usually cover, but Hopper and Ruggles are getting close so I will add them. Williams (B. I assume?) is not even up to $200,000.

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    2. Hopper
      Price Change Total Change
      277,272 6,872 6,872
      284,174 6,902 13,774

      300,351 16,178 29,951

      Ruggles
      Price Change Total Change
      267,593 8,293 8,293
      285,036 17,443 25,736

      288,492 3,456 29,192

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    1. If you are doing well enough you can keep him at F7/M9 then yes, as above. Some of us don’t have six better Forwards. Or even five better ones. Maybe not four better ones….:-(

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  1. Thank you father, great article.
    It’s going to be an absolute bloodfest down at the abattoir over the next few weeks.

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  2. Love your work, FD!
    After crunching the numbers all week, it seems I’ll have to trade the likes of Kerridge and Petracca at some stage if I want to go full premo. Simply due to lack of trades after a shocking start……

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  3. I am struggling to decide if I should upgrade Kerridge to ward or just save the trade.
    would leave me with 14 trades and 300k and petracca/Hall as F6,7

    TU Go for it
    TD Save it

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      1. That would be ideal, but I won’t be able to afford Rance and Laird next week..

        It’s not ideal getting rid of Kerridge

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Cow Talk – Round 13

Written by Father Dougal on June 24 2015

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

Again, not much bovine action last week with so many cows not playing due to byes and injuries. I think I updated less than half the guys in my spreadsheet!

Defenders

Oxley didn’t play due to bye. Projections if you hold him:  at his season average of 84 he’ll go up $33,600 W13 and then $9,100 W14, before starting a slow slide downward to meet his PTA.

Brown didn’t play due to bye. Projections if you hold him: $18,900 if he hits his average of 55. Another 55 adds $3,700 before he’ll start to drop again.

McIntosh did play, for a certain value of play. He scored 39 points and beat last weeks BE only to give him self a huge BE of 91 next week. I am tempted to cull him even though he is a playing cow, and thus a happy cow.  If he scores at his average of 65 he’ll lose you $10,400 and then $3,100 before going back up $8,700 and $6,600. Rather obviously, if he cuddles a wombat next round his price will start to plummet, and if he does well he’ll have a minimal loss with a chance of gains afterwards.

Saad didn’t play due to bye. Projections if you hold him:  at his current average of 83.5 he’ll sneak up a bit more for a while: $8,300 $11,900, and $3,600.

Midfielders

Ellis-Yolman put up a decent for him 77. He is still  playing so he is still worth holding this week. Something about playing cows being good cows. His 103 drop out of his TRA this week but next week his 43 drops out of his TRA. So if he scores his average of 82, he’ll go -$6,900 then +$11,300 and then +$10,600 and slowly up more.

Cripps has grown from cow to steer. If I still had him I would keep him. I’d swap Jellwood for him if it didn’t take a trade. Seriously, he is doing better and is looking like he will do better than Jellwood. And if trading out the J-man-thing is a bad plan, then trading our Cripps is a worse one. If he hits his 100 average (well, 99.78)  he’ll go up $24,800, $18,900, and then level off. If you really want to upgrade him I would at least think about waiting 2-3 week for his price to go up more.

Miller didn’t play due to bye. Projections if you hold him: at his average of 71 he’ll lose $700, then gain $7,100, then slowly drop off.

Vandenberg didn’t play because he is still hurt. Harvest him and make use of the cash.

Forwards

Hogan really limited his losses by not playing! Argh. Late out meant a late harvest for me last week.  Expected to return after the bye. I’d think hard about cashing him in now for a playing premium, but for him it depends on what you need. Will he be a top 8 forward? If not he’ll need to go sooner or later. If he keeps up his 78 average he’ll go $-6,800, $14,800, and $4,900 and could make some more cash. Do with him whatever you need.

Clark did not play again due to injury. At this point I would trade him out. He may do okay make a little more if he ever gets back, but now enough to make him worth holding. When he gets back, if he scores at his average of 64 he’ll go $3,800 $-7,900 $4,900.

Krakouer played the whole game and scored an 88! If Hogan hadn’t been hurt I would have traded him out, but I kept the playing happy cow and got a playing happy surprise. I definately think if you kept him this long you should keep him longer as those low scores are due to leave his three week average which should see his price rise. It would be a hell heck of a comeback but looks possible. If he makes his not high average of 66 he will make $4,900, $23,700, and $7,700. That’s $36,300 over the next three rounds with slow increases after that. Since his average includes those sub and injury scores, I can see him doing better and for the next few weeks he could make money doing a lot worse.

Tarrant got worse again. Got really intimate with a wombat and scored 37 for a full game. What the bleep mate? Does anyone know what is up with this guy? Slaughter him before he plays again. Of course now that I have said that he’ll come back a score a ton…well, probably not. He almost has to scare score more soon, right? He can’t go lower every week for the rest of the season……I hope…..if he scores 60s coming back from the bye he’ll drop $6,800 and $5,100.

Lonie didn’t play due to bye. Projections if you hold him and he goes just 60: $15,200 and $13,200 before leveling off.

Walker was having a bad match and then went off with an injury, keeping him to just 32 after a pair of 66s, and his price is down to $379,000. If he manages to score 75s, which is 5 off his average, he’ll lose $22,300 and $13,000 before slowly going up again. Oh, apparently he is not, technically, a cow, but his price and scores made it easy for me to confuse him for one. Small, far away and all that…..

 

Random Cow Thoughts:

There are still a lot of calves in teams now, but none fat enough to harvest. With so many calves there are fewer and fewer cows to cull. What you do with each one is more and more important, as is who you downgrade to, if you are downgrading of course. This week is again a good week to hold off trades for as long as you can, in case of late outs and cows kept in the barn.

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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13 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 13”

  1. McIntosh has to go, surely B Smith will only go up from here

    Tarrant has to go (wish Steele didn’t have the bye) looking at McLean, not sure about his JS

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  2. Made the decision to keep Saad as D6 instead of Pittard, if he can average 80 I rate that quite good in defence this season. Doing this it allows me to swap Saad back to defence & upgrade Pittard to Hannerbury

    T/U….well worth it, great trade Catta
    T/D….to risky Catta

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  3. Want to get rid of KMac but struggling to think of any options for trade ins. Already have Houli, Simpson, Higgins, Ibbo and BSmith on field. Not enough cash for Shaw or Hodge.

    (TU) Find an option for this week such as Murphy, Birch, Yeo…
    (TD) Wait till Rnd 16 and get Tom McDonald when he has bottomed out and Kmac will have returned to max price

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  4. Tarrant will be culled this week, and probably Amon and one of either Kmac or CEY. Both CEY and Kmac will be on my bench after this week. Who should I trade out?

    T/U : Cull Kmac
    T/D : Cull CEY

    Cheers

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  5. I’m sick of Rance’s crap scores, and he’s set to lose a heap more cash this week.

    T/U – Trade him out (to either Simpson or Smith)
    T/D – Hold him

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