Cow Talk – Round 14

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Well, what a week that was. We have weeks like that every year, but they usually don’t happen right after the byes, spoiling the whole “I get my whole team back” vibe.

This week, I compare all the cows to types of donut. Hah, not a chance! The last thing any of us need is more donuts.

A lot of coaches are in that weird place where we don’t have 22 real premiums, but we do have 22 players who are not in immediate need of replacing or at risk of a cow-like 30 score, like Newman in back, Scooter in the mids, Witts in Ruck, and Nankervis or Greenwood up forward. Not full premo, but still something. I’m gonna call it “full-pseudo.” It’s like full-premo light, sort of a full premo substitute. Lloyd in the mids will average 15 less than we really want, but he sure beats Barrett.

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten –  Sell him now or he makes you his, um….sad owner – Well, I hope you sold him now, er, then. Last week I mean, or you’re a sad owner. He had “trade me” tattooed on his forehead for weeks, I hope you did. If not, he looks ready to go down more.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	45	123,900
2	108	123,900
3	98	123,900
4	98	203,800
5	101	286,300
6	61	344,300
7	69	370,000
8	56	376,400
9	72	360,400
10	121	353,900
11	36	372,200
12	62	376,200
13	—	375,500
14	47	375,500
15	74.9	341,900			Blues
16	74.9	334,367	-7,533	-7,533	Dogs
17	74.9	334,573	206	-7,327	Demons
18	74.9	347,182	12,609	5,282	Cats
19	74.9	356,488	9,305	14,588	Pies
20	74.9	363,355	6,867	21,455	Power

Thomas Stewart – #16  Mr Boddy: Clue – Oh dear, I may have cursed him. At least he is only mostly dead. Meaning he is from a fantasy point of view, at least for this season.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	57	117,300
2	60	117,300
3	22	117,300
4	53	148,900
5	70	170,300
6	68	190,700
7	—	225,900
8	46	225,900
9	52	249,044
10	91	257,600
11	73	274,400
12	—	298,300
13	74	298,300
14	48	326,300
15	59.5	327,800			Giants
16	59.5	322,880	-4,920	-4,920	Lions
17	59.5	312,781	-10,099	-15,019	Hawks
18	59.5	310,459	-2,323	-17,341	Crows
19	59.5	308,744	-1,714	-19,056	Blues
20	59.5	307,480	-1,265	-20,320	Swans

Andrew McGrath –  He is also at what could be his peak selling price three price weeks after his R10 101.  – That would be a yes. Owch. More losses on the way. Another one I hope you traded out before now.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	83	211,800
2	56	211,800
3	62	211,800
4	97	246,500
5	82	278,100
6	89	313,200
7	–	350,700
8	66	350,700
9	59	364,300
10	101	364,400
11	55	369,700
12	61	368,200
13	—	368,700
14	45	368,700
15	71.3	344,000			Lions
16	71.3	332,977	-11,023	-11,023	Pies
17	71.3	329,452	-3,525	-14,548	Saints
18	71.3	338,599	9,147	-5,401	Roos
19	71.3	345,349	6,750	1,349	Dogs
20	71.3	350,330	4,981	6,330	Blues

Caleb Marchbank –   He is going to be hard pressed to go up in value, so can probably be sold anytime  – Yeah, dropped some, although not tragically much. Looks like a sell today if you don’t need him on the field. If you do it’s not a disaster, and he could make back what he lost. Could, not will mind you.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	97	236,100
2	82	236,100
3	56	236,100
4	74	279,600
5	76	301,100
6	69	314,600
7	108	329,800
8	63	356,700
9	61	370,000
10	70	376,600
11	—	364,400
12	95	364,400
13	55	369,900
14	60	371,200
15	74.3	367,700			Crows
16	74.3	355,809	-11,891	-11,891	Demons
17	74.3	355,647	-162	-12,053	Dogs
18	74.3	361,911	6,264	-5,789	Lions
19	74.3	366,533	4,622	-1,167	Cats
20	74.3	369,945	3,411	2,245	Bombers

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – He also has a purrrfect record of going up in price ever single round – Still does, well done mate. Odds are he goes up again after this round. Three 80+ scores in the last four rounds. He is not  close to good enough to keep in the mids, but he might well be the last cow to go, at least of those cows who are going to be going.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	78	135,300
2	90	135,300
3	51	135,300
4	41	198,000
5	55	227,500
6	97	233,800
7	60	258,700
8	70.0	285,700
9	—	311,900
10	55	311,900
11	88	312,600
12	60	325,200
13	85	330,700
14	82	348,100
15	70.2	358,200			Tigers
16	70.2	370,144	11,944	11,944	Eagles
17	70.2	372,334	2,191	14,134	Roos
18	70.2	368,666	-3,668	10,466	Demons
19	70.2	365,959	-2,707	7,759	Saints
20	70.2	363,962	-1,998	5,762	Crows

Sammo Petrevski-Seton – Don’t think about it too hard or you too could go mad….– Price dropping like a heavy stone thing that has been dropped from a great height, right over the head of one of his remaining owners.  Soon to be $100,000 down from his high price. Get while the getting is good. Well, too late, but get before the getting gets worse.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	59	189,300
2	51	189,300
3	116	189,300
4	49	240,900
5	49	274,400
6	78	298,400
7	134	298,700
8	59	337,200
9	58	369,500
10	26	384,700
11	—	347,700
12	—	347,700
13	64	347,700
14	32	322,700
15	64.6	292,700			Crows
16	64.6	287,646	-5,054	-5,054	Demons
17	64.6	284,177	-3,469	-8,523	Dogs
18	64.6	296,152	11,976	3,452	Lions
19	64.6	304,990	8,838	12,290	Cats
20	64.6	311,513	6,522	18,813	Bombers

Jake Barrett –  What have you scored, Jake? You’ve scored nothing! NOTHIIIING! And I will be a lion’s uncle if I let you ruin this for me, because if you can’t get the job done, then I will trade you out for a real premium! – Couldn’t get the job done and I am trading him for a real premium.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	46	127,900
2	50	127,900
3	74	127,900
4		170,600
5		170,600
6		170,600
7	60	170,600
8	59	208,200
9	87	239,600
10	77	268,800
11	—	297,800
12	97.0	297,800
13	54	336,400
14	32	350,000
15	63.6	340,000			Bombers
16	63.6	317,652	-22,348	-22,348	Cats
17	63.6	305,443	-12,209	-34,557	Tigers
18	63.6	310,531	5,087	-29,469	Blues
19	63.6	314,285	3,754	-25,715	Eagles
20	63.6	317,056	2,771	-22,944	Dogs

Jarrod Berry – But, if you sell this week or next you could get something decent from him. And that tattoo on his chest says “the, Bart the” in German. – And, that tattoo on his forehead says “sell me now.” You could wait to you get home, you don’t have to sell him now. But, if you don’t, be careful of your beak. If you wait until you get home, well, he might have a great game and go up in price.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1		139,800
2		139,800
3	32	139,800
4	29	139,800
5	14	139,800
6	62	136,900
7	60	147,900
8	71	170,000
9	75	211,400
10	48	248,000
11	—	269,500
12	84	269,500
13	44	291,400
14	76	293,500
15	54.1	307,600			Bombers
16	54.1	304,668	-2,932	-2,932	Cats
17	54.1	307,006	2,338	-594	Tigers
18	54.1	298,957	-8,049	-8,643	Blues
19	54.1	293,017	-5,940	-14,583	Eagles
20	54.1	288,634	-4,383	-18,966	Dogs

Tim Taranto – Out injured. At least his price will be stable

Scott Selwood – I’m declaring him an honorary cow. I’ve been following his price moves as if he was a cow and so I expect other people will be as well. Trying desperately to come up with a “his uncle owns the theater” joke, but drawing a blank. He has a breakeven of 102, which is not out of reach but not likely, but that 42 leaves his three round average after this week and he should more than make back anything he loses his next price week. I hope that is this week, since I want him to make a bit more before that likely swap to his brother. (Not Uncle.) While he hasn’t made huge cash, or scored huge points, he scored his points at a time when we needed them, and really came through last week just by being on the field. Too soon to be sure, but he may have been worth the trade.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	—	281,800
2	—	281,800
3	—	281,800
4	—	281,800
5	—	281,800
6	—	281,800
7	—	281,800
8	—	281,800
9	102	281,800
10	112	281,800
11	101	281,800
12	—	348,000
13	44	348,000
14	72	371,500
15	86.2	371,000			Giants
16	86.2	363,996	-7,004	-7,004	Lions
17	86.2	377,653	13,658	6,653	Hawks
18	86.2	394,067	16,414	23,067	Crows
19	86.2	406,181	12,113	35,181	Blues
20	86.2	415,120	8,939	44,120	Swans

Rucks

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Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner – Out injured.

Will Hoskin-Elliot – Wants to turn himself into a reliable forward – And made a good start with that 91.  Trading him out now is like the “I hate Geddy Lee club” No Rush.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	88	213,300
2	120	213,300
3	71	213,300
4	70	282,500
5	51	325,200
6	125	326,200
7	65	350,500
8	75	366,500
9	71	388,400
10	64	380,900
11	90	374,700
12	62	376,200
13	—	374,200
14	91	374,200
15	80.2	384,600			Hawks
16	80.2	387,876	3,276	3,276	Bombers
17	80.2	398,427	10,551	13,827	Suns
18	80.2	401,409	2,982	16,809	Eagles
19	80.2	403,609	2,200	19,009	Crows
20	80.2	405,233	1,624	20,633	Roos

Daniel Butler –  He could make back what he will lost over the next two weeks quickly  – Could, but didn’t think he would! If he backs up that 76 with a few 60+ scores, he makes it back after two more rounds. I have no idea if you should trade or hold though. Totally depends on your team situation.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	96	123,900
2	65	123,900
3	79	123,900
4	64	198,800
5	64	239,700
6	54	269,600
7	57	280,100
8	36	285,000
9	—	275,100
10	—	275,100
11	58	275,100
12	—	270,391
13	14	270,391
14	76	247,700
15	60.3	248,900			Power
16	60.3	250,723	1,823	1,823	Saints
17	60.3	272,712	21,989	23,812	Lions
18	60.3	281,922	9,211	33,022	Giants
19	60.3	288,720	6,797	39,820	Suns
20	60.3	293,736	5,016	44,836	Hawks

Cam McCarthy –  Cam has had no chance to fail since last week, but he does play this week  – That was a bit harsh, but he grabbed the opportunity to fail again with both hands, on his throat, and held on tight, soooo, harsh but fair. His scores have been so all over the place so who knows what will happen to his price? Just like a key forward really, only scoring 50 points less per game.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	36	203,600
2	28	203,600
3	53	203,600
4	100	202,800
5	72	230,600
6	78	271,000
7	73	311,500
8	66	329,700
9	61	339,900
10	43	340,100
11	50	326,800
12	21	309,300
13	—	279,300
14	44	279,300
15	60.4	257,400			Saints
16	60.4	245,907	-11,493	-11,493	Roos
17	60.4	255,010	9,103	-2,390	Eagles
18	60.4	269,051	14,042	11,651	Hawks
19	60.4	279,414	10,362	22,014	Giants
20	60.4	287,061	7,647	29,661	Suns

Blake Hardwick –  Both Hardwick and The Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight (Yeah baby Yeah!) have never managed to make something of themselves. Promising starts but no follow though. Oh they try, but they both belong in the sidekicks lounge and not the Comet Club –  Well, prove me wrong why don’t you? After his bye, on or before which most people sold him, he finally pumps out a good score and gives himself a change to make decent cash.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1		134,900
2		134,900
3		134,900
4	63	134,900
5	65	134,900
6	77	134,900
7	74	191,000
8	32	237,600
9	55	256,800
10	65	261,400
11	52	260,700
12	47	268,700
13	—	271,600
14	84	271,600
15	61.4	282,200			Pies
16	61.4	294,092	11,892	11,892	Giants
17	61.4	309,291	15,200	27,091	Cats
18	61.4	310,426	1,135	28,226	Dockers
19	61.4	311,263	837	29,063	Swans
20	61.4	311,881	618	29,681	Tigers

James Parsons –  Parsons has not done much scoring aside from never – Looks like “Prove Me Wrong Two, Electric Boogaloo” But he is still owned by a lot of people who may get to enjoy his price rise. Good question if he will be worth a trade, but he is more likely to be than before. And while it is probably wishful thinking, perhaps last week was a sign of him getting his confidence and raising his game?

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	–	117,300
2	–	117,300
3	60	117,300
4	68	117,300
5	–	117,300
6	–	117,300
7	19	117,300
8	38	152,300
9	47	168,000
10	42	170,500
11	56	182,500
12	—	199,000
13	51	199,000
14	82	213,300
15	51.4	241,800			Giants
16	51.4	260,728	18,928	18,928	Lions
17	51.4	274,895	14,167	33,095	Hawks
18	51.4	271,718	-3,177	29,918	Crows
19	51.4	269,374	-2,344	27,574	Blues
20	51.4	267,643	-1,730	25,843	Swans

Dan Houston –  Could easily make $40-50k over the next two weeks while that big score is in his system – Well, more like $30-40k now, but still, great comeback from injury.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	72	117,300
2	81	117,300
3	68	117,300
4	68	185,500
5	73	233,900
6	51	266,300
7	56	282,200
8	—	288,900
9	—	288,900
10	—	288,900
11	—	288,900
12	—	288,900
13	90	288,900
14	64	301,100
15	69.2	315,900			Tigers
16	69.2	332,712	16,812	16,812	Eagles
17	69.2	335,849	3,137	19,949	Roos
18	69.2	340,494	4,645	24,594	Demons
19	69.2	343,922	3,428	28,022	Saints
20	69.2	346,452	2,530	30,552	Crows

Hugh Greenwood – Wow, lots of cash to come, assuming he keeps that average up –  I’d like to thank Motts and the whole SCT community for making my winning the understatement of the year award possible. His price should go up around $125,000 between my saying that and the 127 leaving his three round average. In a few weeks we’ll find out if he can make steer. He sure looks like a good F6 option right now. Might slow down and just be a F7/M9. Please do not get spud up and derail those lovely, lovely price rises.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1		117,300
2		117,300
3		117,300
4		117,300
5		117,300
6		117,300
7		117,300
8		117,300
9	104	117,300
10	72	117,300
11	72	117,300
12	68	196,900
13	—	240,000
14	127	240,000
15	88.6	296,300			Blues
16	88.6	345,118	48,818	48,818	Dogs
17	88.6	390,326	45,208	94,026	Demons
18	88.6	406,554	16,228	110,254	Cats
19	88.6	418,527	11,974	122,227	Pies
20	88.6	427,362	8,835	131,062	Power

James Stewart – Joins us this week. That 104 means money to make for next week and without a big score this week, not a lot afterwards.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj	Next
1	–	169,800
2	–	169,800
3	–	169,800
4	–	169,800
5	–	169,800
6	–	169,800
7	–	169,800
8	91	169,800
9	51	169,800
10	50	169,800
11	35	210,900
12	105	215,900
13	–	244,200
14	51	244,200
15	63.8	265,400			Lions
16	63.8	293,876	28,476	28,476	Pies
17	63.8	296,525	2,649	31,125	Saints
18	63.8	304,203	7,678	38,803	Roos
19	63.8	309,869	5,665	44,469	Dogs
20	63.8	314,049	4,180	48,649	Blues

Other cow stuff:  The Hotel California effect is in full swing now. Almost no chance that downgrade options will ever be sold, so their job security and DPP status are the main concern, as well as their cost, since lower cost means more funds freeded up for use. Someone like Deluca is now a real option even if he never plays again, since he is DPP mid/fwd and only costs $102,400.  Witherden is another one who could be fine even if he loses his job, having def/mid DPP and costing $117,300, although he seems to have decent JS right now.

Other non-cow stuff: The first year I played, there was incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades. The second year I played, there was incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades. The third year I played, there was incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades. This year, there will be incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades – except that is isn’t really unprecedented, it happens every freaking year! It’s like we all have trauma-induced memory loss about what the end of the season is like. It will be a real challenge, like it always is. Luxury trades are not your friend.

Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

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