Cow Talk – Round 19

Written by Father Dougal on July 26 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

If anyone has the trades to downgrade more than one cow at this point I am impressed. Even downgrading one is getting to be a challenge for many of us! In a way that makes who you cull when ever more important.

 

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Scharenberg – Did not play. Darn.

Ryan– Did not play. Darn.

 

Midfielders

Witherden – Put him in the mids so there would be one! Wow is he doing well. I plan to keep him as a backup for a long time, plan to at least. Last round or two he could easily be upgrade-able for cheap, or a source of big cash if you have a trade to use to harvest him. His growth might only stop when the season does! My, that all still applies, and not much more to add. Sure came along at just the right time.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 117,300
10 117,300
11 117,300
12 117,300
13 117,300
14 76 117,300
15 91 117,300
16 74 117,300
17 109 193,300
18 86 263,800
19 87.2 313,000 Eagles
20 87.2 352,633 39,633 39,633 Dogs
21 87.2 371,732 19,099 58,732 Priests

Rucks

Darcy – Price is and should keep going up. Doing well for a rookie. Hard to play him as R2 at this point in the season, but boy he would have been good early on.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 117,300
10 117,300
11 117,300
12 117,300
13 117,300
14 50 117,300
15 99 117,300
16 71 117,300
17 67 184,000
18 87 240,500
19 74.8 276,400 Giants
20 74.8 302,406 26,006 26,006 Suns
21 74.8 324,640 22,234 48,240 Drongos

 

Forwards

Parsons – While his 32 was annoying, he averaged 65 if he came on as an emergency both of the last two weeks. Not so bad really. Ack, he was so bad really last week though. Still money there to harvest, depending on how much you need for what. I was sure I was going to downgrade him until all the long term injuries. Now his price is set to fall a lot, so if you do need to harvest him, do it now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 51 199,000
14 82 213,300
15 49 241,800
16 98 258,800
17 32 292,000
18 25 294,100
19 51.3 284,700 Blues
20 51.3 257,274 -27,426 -27,426 Swans
21 51.3 245,699 -11,575 -39,001 Tigers

Greenwood – More cash to come, if you can afford to lose his points and fwd/mid status!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 104 117,300
10 72 117,300
11 72 117,300
12 68 196,900
13 240,000
14 127 240,000
15 84 296,300
16 342,000
17 71 342,000
18 103 376,600
19 87.6 390,900 Pies
20 87.6 403,394 12,494 12,494 Power
21 87.6 419,957 16,563 29,057 Monks

 

 

Other cow stuff:  The hotel California is turning into the roach motel California. Any cow who comes is now is almost certain to never leave. Like this bit of Cow Talk that was here last week. Seems to be stuck….

­Other non-cow stuff: Like sands through an hourglass, so go our trades…..

Did I miss someone? Say so in the comments, and I’ll see what I can do.

Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

­

 

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4 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 19”

  1. I’m interested with what pricing Greenwood and Witherden should be next year. I know they generally price players with their last 3 years ave but haven’t paid attention to those that begin their careers in the last half of the season.I know injured players get discounted for only playing a certain amount of games per year, what’s the likelihood they’ll start low 300’s and what price would you snap these ultra consistant rookies up for next year?

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    1. You are priced on last years average alone, not the previous 3. Discounts range from 10-30% I believe pending how many games you play. Can’t recall the game range, no more than 6-8ish to get a minimum 10%.

      If you didn’t play last season, they price you at your last season average and then apply a 40% discount.

      Greenwood and Witherden will be priced at an average of ~85ish if they keep things up and play the rest of the season out. To much for me to jump on anyway.

      CD then add some special conditions on players they don’t want to be too cheap otherwise everyone will start them (see Ablett 2016).

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  2. While the likes of Witherdon and Greenwood have been fantastic value this year, and have(and i hope continue to) more than done their job for us. But the idea of paying 400k on a second year player in your starting team is just fraught with danger.
    Sure there’s always the exception to the norm. However for every Clayton Oliver pick, there will always be 10 Kade Kolodjashnij picks

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  3. Cheers Guys, and thanks Father for the write up.Yep, I wouldn’t be paying 400’s either, Witherden probably would only have a 10% discount if anything at all. Greenwood probably too many games to receive a discount.

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