Cow Talk – Round 5

Written by Father Dougal on April 27 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

This week we go from theory and general stuff and start in player by player. No (well, very few) predictions because I am really bad at predictions. Projections based on math and stats, sure, but If I knew who was going to do well in the future my team would be ranked a lot higher.

To keep the number of players manageable; I’m mostly going to stick to talking about cows, not steers and calves. A steer is a player who is fully grown and can be expected to be kept rather than harvested and just fluctuate around a high level. Patrick Cripps is an example from last season. A calf is a player who is not ready to be harvested. Current examples are Darcy Byrne-Jones and Ryan Davis.

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti has one more week with that 106 in the Three Round Average and that will help him make good money this week. After that he’ll slowly rise up for a few more weeks if he sticks to his 75.2 average. A big score could give him more room to grow, while a low one will slow him down to where he’ll be ready to harvest. At 75.2 the next three weeks:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

319574 35,474 35,474
332164 12,590 48,064
346010 13,847 61,910

 Adams has at least three more weeks of good price rises, and I think he may be headed for steer status. (Not a prediction!)  At his current average of 93.2:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

335783 32,100 32,100
365403 31,503 63,603
394582 29,179 92,782

M. Brown doesn’t look like he is going to go up lots more, although like all cows he could really benefit from a good week or two. At least his BE of 11 is easy for this week. At his current average of 52:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

221948 18,048 18,048
233090 11,141 29,190
241781 8,691 37,881

Dea sure had an off week, but he plays Carlton next which gives me some hope of a big score. His BE of 67 is barely below his average of 71.4 but I don’t think he needs to be rushed out. Without the 41 his average is 79, which I think is more what we’ll see from him next week. There is certainly some risk to keeping him since he could drop a bit if he spuds up again. At his current average of 71.4:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

311466 1,866 1,866
312137 671 2,537
326126 13,989 16,526

Hartley saved himself with a good score of 79 last week. With a 53 and 44 ready to leave his TRA, he will rise in price well even at his current average of 65.5:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

233413 31,113 31,113
265986 32,573 63,686
284107 18,121 81,807

Weitering is close to peak price unless you think he’ll average more than 85ish. Since his average is that high due to one big score that is now out of his TRA, his BE of 79 is not at all sure. He does face the Bombers next, so I can see hoping he’ll put up another big score, or just keeping him for his points if you think he can average enough. At his current average of 83.6:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

365582 2,182 2,182
371902 6,320 8,502
386611 14,709 23,211

Midfielders

Hewett looked ready to retire to a potato farm before the last round. If he keeps playing he’ll likely make some good money even at his, I think, deflated average of 57.5:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

191387 9,287 9,287
223781 32,394 41,681
242213 18,432 60,113

When that 19 leaves his TRA after next round, he’ll be ready to make a big move in the money direction. If you take the 19 out of his average and just use his other scores he looks even better. At 70.33:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

197082 14,982 14,982
239389 42,306 57,289
270854 31,465 88,754

Parish looks close to his peak value. He has a little more to make but without a big score soon he’ll be ready to cull. At his current average of 77.2:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

336758 10,258 10,258
341777 5,019 15,277
355790 14,012 29,290

Mills should have two more good weeks and then slow down if he stays at a steady 75ish. His two most recent scores have been his best. If he keeps that up his ceiling will rise and he’ll have a few more weeks of growth. At his current average of 74.6:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

337959 32,859 32,859
358112 20,152 53,012
364419 6,308 59,319

Rucks

Cox will be written about before too long but still a calf right now. (Hmm, a prediction, safe though.) Mentioning him since there are no other rucks to talk about yet. Of course there are hardly ever rucks to talk about.

Forwards

Kerridge is turning out to be what we all hoped. With a 90 average and a negative BE, he should make us about $100k or so still, if not more. I expect he’ll be one of the last players most of us will upgrade. At his current average of 90:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

358114 44,014 44,014
396021 37,907 81,921
412986 16,965 98,886

Kennedy is one of those guys where looking at his average is not enough. Two tons then three spuds give him a nice looking average of 77.6, but can we expect that much now? The good news is with a BE of 51 he has another game to score big, before we conclude he’s done.

At his current average of 77.6:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

299929 12,029 12,029
314870 14,941 26,970
336404 21,534 48,504

But at, say, 55:

289899 1,999 1,999
287384 -2,515 -516
285967 -1,418 -1,933

Yeah….go high or go home mate. Let’s hope we have a downgrade target next week.

Papley sure showed up for his last match! If he avoids spudding it up again he should grow nicely for a few weeks. He’ll probably have more ups and downs, but if he has a few ups in a row he’ll make some nice coin. At his current average of 72.2:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

248830 17,130 17,130
282902 34,072 51,202
305550 22,648 73,850

McCarthy came back well rested and seems to have a spot. He’ll have one big increase and then a few smaller ones if he sticks to his average. Next week could tell us a lot, and we sure don’t want to get rid this week. At his current average of 71:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

294613 44,113 44,113
316171 21,559 65,671
328580 12,408 78,080

Cockatoo almost slid under my radar, but he does look cowish right now. He’s about to have a 29 fall out of his TRA which will help his growth next week a lot. I have no idea what his real level is this season. If he puts up a string of 75ish scores there a lot more money to be made. If he really is going to throw in a few 30s then not so much. (ok, obvious, but still true.) At his current average of 65.33:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

262194 47,294 47,294
285368 23,174 70,468
298233 12,864 83,333

Menadue rhymes with poo.  Had a good score vs the Blues, and then blech. If you own him, his BE is only 29 and even he can reach that, which means one more week for him to post a big score before he has got to go.

At his current but maybe misleading average of 53.6:

Price                     Change                                Total Change

221257 10,857 10,857
227340 6,084 16,940
239655 12,315 29,255

At his average over the last three (41.67)

Price                     Change                                Total Change

215960 5,560 5,560
212827 -3,133 2,427
213023 196 2,623

One week, Connor, for those with patience or other priorities. I hate getting rid of someone who will bring in so little money to use elsewhere. I’d be tempted to write him off as not worth a trade to get rid of, and use him as an emergency, or for a loophole if (when) he loses his job.

Random Cow Thoughts

Please let me know if I missed someone. I’ll add them in tomorrow if I did. I hope to go more in depth for a few more in the future, but just getting all the data going for this first go used up my time this week.

Please  let me know what you think of the format and any ideas for how it could be improved.

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24 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 5”

    1. I went with McGovern over Menadue.
      It’s looking like a good choice now.
      He should have a few good weeks left of price rises as his scores have been getting better.
      My main regret at the moment is trading Papley out for DBJ rather than Wingard.

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    2. Oh, thanks!

      McGovern has yet to score less each round than the previous round. That’s sure a nice trend! BE of just 0 so he has a little ways to go if he keeps up his average of 60.8, and at this rate he could do even better. The Crows had a hard start to the season, so it will be interesting to see what he can do against easier teams.

      Price, Change, Total Change
      268407 26,807 26,807
      285056 16,649 43,456
      291966 6,910 50,366

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      1. Thanks father his becoming a very solid pick since I was originally gonna go for Milera who is now injured

        Yes boys McGovern has been very solid just scoring away

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    1. wow – really surprised by all the thumbs down here, what am I missing? I was gonna bring in Lee for BKen via loophole…rethinking that!!!

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      1. First of all, Weitering has great job security, better than that of Tom Lee. Secondly, while Weiters has a relatively high BE now, his scoring suggests he won’t drop too much in value (if at all).
        Thirdly, there might be better downgrade options next week (Tucker, Cox & Josh Smith spring to mind).

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  1. Great article Father. I appreciate all the research and number crunching you put in. Now that it is finally cow season I can utilise all the information you provide rather than just scratch my head , give up and get myself another drink.
    Thank you.

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  2. I was convinced I was going to make a double trade this week (Fyfe and a cow). But have reading your fantastic article Father I am leaning towards just replacing Fyfe this week. With all my cows mentioned in this article, and all with bit of cash to make I will hold off until maybe next week. Especially after getting rid of Papley far too early.

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    1. I think you can be forgiven for trading out Papley. Two spud scores, McGlynn back, with a tough game against WC coming up as well as DBJ on the bubble, most would’ve pulled the trigger, myself included!

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      1. Yep spot on – I traded out Gresham for DBJ but papley was next in line – glad I held but many culled him last round

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    2. Glad I could help. I tend to think that if you can use the money right away for points then harvesting before full growth can be ok, but if you have a good chance of more money why not take it? Well, injury and all, but still.

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  3. Thanks Father Dougal – great analysis there.
    Was wondering if I should go :
    T/U – M.Brown to Lee
    T/D – Dea to Lee
    with the cash, I intend to go B.Keneddy to Zorko!
    Thoughts appreciated.

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  4. Fantastic work Father – still need some helps though………

    T/U – BenKen to Pendles
    T/D – Menadue to Boyd (via DPPs)

    Want to get Pendles in, but Boyd is cheap and should be top 10 Defender. Just have the feeling that BenKen still has money to make and Menadue will be a very slow burn.

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  5. Menadue rhymes with poo! Haha that’s gold! Another great write up father. Very informative. Trades this week for me are Fyfe to Parker (wish I started with him instead of Shiel) and Dea to Docherty. I’m glad Keays and Petracca are now getting games. They’ve come in at a great time and will definitely be looked at in a couple of weeks once they’re on the bubble.

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  6. I have $450k in the bank and was planning to trade dea for H Shaw this week as I am down one premo in defence (downgraded JJ to DBJ last week).
    Do you think it is worth keeping Dea in the hope he gets back to his 70-80 scores against carlton and starts generating cash again, or is it more imperative to get a premo defender back in my team?

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