Defender TLAs Batch #2

Written by Father Dougal on February 10 2020

Hi Everybody!

Here is the next batch of defenders. Again, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from real math. 

Daniel Rich

Year Games Average Age TLA
2009 22 85.6 18
2010 22 78.2 19
2011 16 84.8 20
2012 20 90.8 21
2013 16 85.9 22
2014 3 81 23
2015 21 80.8 24
2016 21 85.7 25 87
2017 22 91.5 26 87
2018 18 78.9 27 86
2019 22 96.8 28 86
92-99 85

You would think someone changed the rules last season for so many older defenders to have career years. Daniel joins their number. He was a solid performer for a long time, had an off year, had an on year and at 29 he will probably have a fine but not too exciting year. I expect his owners to get just about what they pay for. I don’t think he’s a good option only because there are too many younger guys with more upside. 


Rory Laird

Year Games Average Age TLA
2013 18 69.8 19
2014 16 59.1 20
2015 21 93.8 21
2016 17 96.8 22
2017 22 100.2 23 104
2018 20 108.2 24 104
2019 22 96.8 25 104
100-108 104

At 26, I see no reason for Laird not to bounce back and score around 100 or more again. A more pessimistic estimate could include his age 22 season, and say his TLA is really more like 100 than 104. If so, he still is a bit underpriced. I would not predict it, but there is no reason I know of he can’t put up another 108 or more, since he is in his mid-career. 


Nic Newman

Year Games Average Age TLA
2017 18 82.7 24 85
2018 10 72.6 25 90
2019 20 96.7 26 95
94-101 96

Wow, what a late start to his career! If he was three years younger I would be bullish as heck on him. At 27, it is hard to assume improvement. But, with only 48 games played, we don’t really know his ceiling. If Doc wasn’t coming back I’d…probably feel about the same actually. I think his TLA will be a bit better and his real score will be around what he did last year. With so few games played, he does have a bigger upside than most players his age, since his AFL experience is still in the high growth phase. I don’t think picking him would actually be wrong, especially if you have insight into the Blues defense that makes him better than is obvious


Luke Ryan

Year Games Average Age TLA
2017 11 76.8 20
2018 20 90.2 21 90
2019 18 95.8 22 95
95-103 98

That 98 could be low, but it is hard to know what is gonna happen in Fremantle this season. Luke is another player I am thinking about post analysis. There is no reason at all to think he will go backwards, and lots to think he will get better. Being 23, with just 49 games under his belt, he has a lot of upside. Big upside and small downside is just what we want in a player! 


James Sicily

Year Games Average Age TLA
2015 3 59 20
2016 21 63.6 21
2017 19 73.3 22
2018 14 105.1 23 98
2019 22 93.8 24 98
92-100 98

His 105 average came in just 14 games, which means smaller data sample, which makes me not trust it as much as a 105 from 22 matches. The weighted average of his 2018 and 2019 seasons is 98, which is what feels right to me. He is 25 and could still breakout if the moons properly align. I suspect he is a bit underpriced, but not a lot. I do note that the Hawk’s “Flog Reduction Program” seems to have helped him out. If they would just implement a “Give Sicily One Position” program, that would help too. I can picture looking at him next season after he puts up a 105 again and talking about the one year forward experiment aberration, and I can also picture looking at him next season after he puts up a 98 and confirming his TLA is indeed about 98. Or discussing his Flog Relapse. He could do anything really. 


Nick Vlastuin

Year Games Average Age TLA
2013 17 75.1 18
2014 19 67.6 19
2015 22 76 20
2016 19 74.9 21 75
2017 13 78.2 22 80
2018 19 81.6 23 84
2019 21 91.2 24 88
88-94 90

My gut says that he has reached his real level. I can see him taking points from Houli this season, or maybe next. If I had to pick one of the two, I’d take the 25 year old and not the old guy. I suspect he is one of those players who is not quite good enough to be SuperCoach relevant, but is more than good enough to keep his spot. He is 25, and if he ended up in the top ten defenders one time before the end of his career I wouldn’t be surprised. But I’d never try to plan on that or buy him based on that chance. Too many other, better options. Tiger’s fans might know something I don’t though. 


Sam Docherty

Year Games Average Age TLA
2013 13 52.8 19
2014 16 76.8 20 75
2015 19 87.7 21 85
2016 22 108.7 22 105
2017 22 114.7 23 110
2018 0 24 105
2019 0 25 100
95-103 97

Doc is priced to average 80.3.  Even my pessimistic estimate above makes that a bargain.  I think he was a real TLA 110 player at the end of 2017. Now after two ACLs and two years off…uncharted territory.  I think there are two most likely scenarios. One, that he ends up good but not as great, and two, that he is still great but not durable. Thoughts of Tom Liberatore don’t give me confidence. Sigh. The TLA numbers above after 2017 should probably just be blank. How the bleep can we know them at this point? He is only 26, which means he could still be good a few more seasons if his body holds up. I think I am opting out of the above prediction being included in next season’s success rate calculations, since it all really rides on his body. I suppose I will say that if his body holds up he could go 100-110. But remembering Libba’s return Round 1 of 2018….yeah, just rolling dice. He is in my team now, and might be when the season starts. I could also shift to Luke Ryan if I have the cash, and I’d sleep better. Heck I’d sleep better with Sicily! 



Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading!


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16 thoughts on “Defender TLAs Batch #2”

  1. I honestly see Ryan as the stand out defender to increase his output the most. If he raises his floor, it’s all upside for him.


    1. Agreed. Seemed to slow down after the byes with nothing to play for and then got injured. Looks ‘underpriced’ to me for 2020. Age, # of games and scoring trajectory are ALL positive signs. New coach means I’ll be watching closely during the Marsh Series (especially kick-in duties), but he has a very SC-friendly game. I remember Adam going on about a couple of key stats for him last year. One small step could see a giant leap in his SC output in 2020. Let’s hope so.

      Keep ’em coming FD. Love it!


        1. Think people have this very wrong, in that Daniel is the clear better choice for me. But i also cant get over the general lack of interest in Daniel this year.


          1. The consistency is great but It’s the lack of ceiling that worries me it also means he’ll very likely never be out of reach value wise,

            I can just imagine him just all of a sudden stopping taking kick outs he’d drop down to a 90 ave.


    2. 100% agree, I think he played injured after the byes, leg or maybe groin issue I think, love the ceiling he’s shown.


  2. I love these articles. Not sure where you find the time to do your research but your thoughts sure are interesting. Look forward to more instalments.


  3. I’ve had LRyan in and out of my side ALOT but I think after reading this I’ll have too pick him I love the high ceiling he possesses


  4. Is is too risky to have this defence:

    Daniel, Sicily, Docherty, Doedee, Rivers, Gould, (Ling, Bianco) ??

    It would allow me to get the midfielders i want, and im hoping that Daniel and Sicily edge towards a 100+ average. Thoughts?


  5. I’m just not sure on Daniel, he was the surprise packet last year but I think a lot of coaches will try and expose his height and drag him back to the goalsquare ala Roughy last season, if that starts to happen then magnets will probably utilise him up forward.


    1. Thanks for the feedback. I see daniel as still having a lot of room to improve. He is consistent, and at the perfect age where he should still be getting better. He is my POD and im keem to roll with him. If you take out his injury affected scores, as well as when they brought him back too early from injury, he didnt put a foot wrong. Think he would sooner run loose than be shifted back into the fwds. Keith should help with that too. His best score from last year came against the hawks



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