DejaVu – Prodigal Sons

Written by Father Dougal on March 8 2018

Last season I wrote a series of posts about players coming back after a long time away, called the Prodigal Sons. This season I’m thinking of going back and looking at my posts from last season to see how full and of what, I turned out to be. I hate pundits who give bad advice then hope you forget over the off season. I don’t have any in mind, because I forgot over the off season! It must work! But, especially having made very specific predictions for specific players; I feel like owning whatever I wrote and, and this is the big thing I care about, learning from it all.

So, in the order of posting:

Prodigal Son – Jaeger O’Meara

What the heck? My link all embiggene d into that!

And after fiddling, I can’t seem to turn it into a normal link. Not gonna spend more time on that. We get the summary as well. It’s like auto complete’s more evil twin who takes steroids….

Anyways:

What I said:

“If he has knee problems again I would not expect them to be small.”

“He can be welcomed with open arms, his upside good enough to make his risk acceptable. But there is most certainly a risk in selecting a breakout candidate returning from a two year absence due to multiple knee surgeries.”

Round Price Score
1 $318,900.00 71
2 $318,900.00 89
3 $318,900.00 44
4 $327,000.00
5 $327,000.00
6 $327,000.00 39
7 $318,000.00
8 $318,000.00
9 $318,000.00
10 $318,000.00
11 $318,000.00
12 $318,000.00
13 $318,000.00
14 $318,000.00
15 $318,000.00
16 $318,000.00
17 $318,000.00
18 $318,000.00
19 $318,000.00
20 $318,000.00
21 $318,000.00
22 $318,000.00 49
23 $291,300.00 91

He had knee problems again, and they were not small. He started out slow but not bad, then BAM! a trade wasted.

I’m calling this 3/4 wrong. I was clear on the big risk, but recommended him, which is more important. Oh, and I ended up with him in my team, after panicking over the lack of cows. Ou  ch.

Prodigal Son – David Swallow

If you had asked me 10 minutes ago if I had written about David Swallow I would have said “no”.  Forgetting over the off season, powerful it is…..

What I said:

“If he has knee problems again I would not expect them to be small. Yes, I said the same about O’Meara because knees are both important and fragile; especially previously injured ones. ”

“Well, I’d at least let him in the door and give him a hug or two. That Round 9 Bye is a bit of a pain, since keeping him for a donut is not very appealing and his growth will mostly be done.”

Round Price Score
1 $280,200.00
2 $280,200.00 88
3 $280,200.00 117
4 $280,200.00 46
5 $319,100.00 55
6 $333,300.00
7 $333,300.00 96
8 $334,200.00
9 $334,200.00
10 $334,200.00 69
11 $344,700.00 72
12 $359,500.00 90
13 $368,600.00 87
14 $383,100.00 58
15 $387,700.00 101
16 $394,600.00 132
17 $419,500.00 90
18 $451,800.00 74
19 $463,000.00 78
20 $447,000.00
21 $447,000.00 121
22 $448,100.00 88
23 $455,200.00 72

So, 1534 points at an average of 85.2 costing $280,200.  His high was $463,000 in round 19. That’s….not bad? I feel like he is a wash, in that if you somehow didn’t notice he was not starting round 1 and took him, you ended up making money and getting an average 33.7 over his price, although missing 4 matches. If I knew I was going to get that, yeah, not so bad. But, odds are I’d have gotten rid of him early with so many missed matches early, and been sad to miss when he did better later. But, being out round one, nobody should have taken him. So, a nothing. And I did not have him in my team, because he was not named. I would have if he had been named round 1.

Prodigal Son – Dayne Beams

What I said:

“From him we expect: No less than 100, and up to 120. If he is actually healthy again the question is how far over 100 will he average.”

“I have read that the Lions are planning to “manage” his knees, which makes me worry that he’ll be rested a few times.”

“Overall, he’s welcome, if you are feeling lucky.”

Round Price Score
1 $432,500.00 91
2 $432,500.00 120
3 $432,500.00 109
4 $462,900.00 90
5 $484,300.00 100
6 $491,500.00 66
7 $476,900.00
8 $476,900.00
9 $476,900.00 132
10 $485,000.00 127
11 $502,800.00
12 $502,800.00 146
13 $552,000.00 66
14 $558,600.00 12
15 $512,200.00
16 $512,200.00 58
17 $437,000.00 100
18 $396,600.00 131
19 $419,400.00 121
20 $463,700.00 94
21 $492,900.00 138
22 $517,200.00 148
23 $547,000.00 78

So, 1927 at an average of 101.4 costing $432,500. That’s an average 21.5 over what he was priced to average, although missing 3 matches. I feel like I got him pretty right. He did average over 100, he missed a few games. Would he have been a part of a winning team, well, maybe. He would have had to be kept all season for that to work out, and there sure would have been the temptation to get rid of him.  And he was in my team, and I did get rid of him too soon, foolish me, not being patient as I council others to be. Need to take my own advice. Calling this 3/4 right.

Prodigal Son – Jarryd Roughead

What I said:

“It’s hard to imagine him not scoring over what he is priced for, and making at least some cash for us along with points.”

I think he should be welcomed back with open arms, and with the lack of good forward options I expect him in a lot of teams come the first bounce.

Round Price Score
1 $367,100.00 73
2 $367,100.00 82
3 $367,100.00 99
4 $385,000.00 53
5 $388,800.00 67
6 $385,200.00 64
7 $366,300.00 114
8 $380,000.00 99
9 $403,700.00 79
10 $428,300.00 86
11 $433,700.00 89
12 $432,600.00 74
13 $430,500.00
14 $430,500.00 57
15 $415,900.00 88
16 $403,300.00 88
17 $400,100.00 88
18 $411,300.00 80
19 $415,500.00 130
20 $436,900.00 79
21 $448,000.00 107
22 $468,000.00 68
23 $455,200.00 140

So, 1904 at an average of 86.5 costing $367,100. That’s an average 19 over what he was priced to average at 22 matches. Perhaps I should have expected him to start slow and get better, which he did. I started with him and got impatient. Would have been ok if I had just help him all season, another guy who wasn’t great but was value. But I really would have rather not had him. I think it was not good advice to say take him, but not a disaster. Call it – 1/2.  And maybe -3/4, not sure…..

Prodigal Son – Cam McCarthy

What I said:

“If he only repeats his 2015 season he’s worth it, and it is certainly possible he’ll do better, even with the time off.”

 “Given the lack of cows this season, he is *really* welcome. I’m not a big fan of expensive cows since it is so much harder for them to make good money. But, Cam is, if not unique, very unusual in that he showed his talent and then had his season average tank without a physical injury, leaving him priced even lower than his real cow season. He might be the best F5 out there.”

In the immortal words of Max Bialystock:

“WRONG!!!!!!!”

Wow, so wrong. totally wrong. I did start with him, and ended up trading him after Round 2. Boy did I feel bad about this one. I have no idea what went wrong with him.

Round Price Score
1 $203,600.00 36
2 $203,600.00 28
3 $203,600.00 53
4 $202,800.00 100
5 $230,600.00 72
6 $271,000.00 78
7 $311,500.00 73
8 $329,700.00 66
9 $339,900.00 61
10 $340,100.00 43
11 $326,800.00 50
12 $309,300.00 21
13 $279,300.00
14 $279,300.00 44
15 $257,400.00 28
16 $230,700.00
17 $230,700.00
18 $230,700.00 57
19 $226,600.00 34
20 $219,000.00 109
21 $249,000.00 49
22 $267,300.00 28
23 $278,100.00

If you held him to Round 9-10, you would have made about $135,000. Of course if you had him on the pitch R1 you got a 36. Ow. If you showed faith R2 you got a 28. Owwwwww.  I owned him, and showed faith. Big hurt on the season just from him. Average of 53.5 in 20 matches in 2015, then an average of 54.2 in 19 matches in 2017.  A full -1 and an apology!

Prodigal-like Son – Aaron Sandilands

What I said:

“I’m expecting  100+, probably not more than 110, although he can certainly go bigger in individual matches.”

“He has the potential to be a season keeper for $308,200. If he isn’t one, it will very likely be due to injury rather than low scoring, not a result of injury. If he makes it even close to the byes, odds are he’s made good $$ if he needs to be replaced. Given what else is available in the rucks, I think he’s a really good choice.”

Round Price Score
1 $308,200.00 107
2 $308,200.00 71
3 $308,200.00 103
4 $353,500.00 91
5 $379,400.00 101
6 $412,200.00 105
7 $436,700.00 77
8 $448,900.00 104
9 $458,500.00 102
10 $464,700.00
11 $464,700.00
12 $464,700.00
13 $464,700.00
14 $464,700.00
15 $464,700.00 12
16 $438,800.00
17 $438,800.00
18 $438,800.00
19 $438,800.00
20 $438,800.00
21 $438,800.00
22 $438,800.00
23 $438,800.00

Well, that’s close to what I predicted. I feel better. Nobody with sense kept him past round 9. Take away that 12 that popped-up R15, for which nobody owned him, and he averaged 95.67.  Not 100, but he made $150,000 and scored well, and I had him and was happy to have him. So 3/4 right.

Prodigal Son – Dyson Heppell

What I said:

“As far as his average, I can imagine anything from 90 to 110. More likely towards the middle of that range and not the ends.”

“How welcome is he? Not very, but that is more because of where he is in his career than because of his missed time. I would not consider him even if he hadn’t missed a season; he is at the wrong point in his development to be a good supercoach choice.”

Round Price Score
1 $513,300.00 152
2 $513,300.00 108
3 $513,300.00 95
4 $538,200.00 67
5 $518,100.00 123
6 $510,300.00 98
7 $505,000.00 103
8 $517,800.00 101
9 $516,500.00 89
10 $511,900.00 107
11 $510,200.00 83
12 $500,100.00 114
13 $504,900.00
14 $504,900.00 54
15 $484,700.00 88
16 $470,400.00 99
17 $453,000.00 84
18 $453,200.00 115
19 $464,900.00 104
20 $475,400.00 134
21 $504,500.00 59
22 $500,900.00 108
23 $500,000.00 105

So, 2190  at an average of 99.5 costing $513,300. That’s an average 5.2 over what he was priced to average at 22 matches. He did really close to what I expected. I didn’t take him because of the limited upside. Feel like a +1 for this one.

Prodigal Son – Michael Hurley

What I said:

“As far as his average, I can imagine anything from 80 to 100. I feel like low 90s is most likely.”

“He is underpriced”

“As it is, I am going to take my risks elsewhere, but I don’t think he is a bad option.”

Round Price Score
1 $464,200.00 80
2 $464,200.00 94
3 $464,200.00 73
4 $453,600.00 81
5 $445,700.00 107
6 $446,000.00 109
7 $461,700.00 115
8 $488,800.00 127
9 $516,900.00 108
10 $537,700.00 86
11 $539,900.00 77
12 $518,500.00 118
13 $508,200.00
14 $508,200.00 112
15 $512,000.00 98
16 $522,500.00 117
17 $529,500.00 133
18 $543,700.00 77
19 $544,100.00 118
20 $544,600.00 100
21 $529,600.00 120
22 $537,400.00
23 $537,400.00

So, 2050  at an average of 102.5 costing $464,200. That’s an average 8.2 over what he was priced to average at 20 matches.  Well, If you started with him, well done. Lots of us brought him in later on. I feel like this is a wash. I certainly don’t feel bad I didn’t predict he would come back from a year off with a career high 7.7 over his previous best. But he did enough better than expected my prediction was not very useful.

So what did we learn?

I came out dead even. It appears my value is the numbers rather than conclusions. I was horribly wrong with McCarthy. O’Meara had the season ending injury I feared, but I still suggested him. Roughy, well, I just should not have suggested a mid-pricer, because mid-pricer without a big upside. Swallow, well, I feel about right with him but so what? I feel he was so close to being useful though. Beams, ugh, I got him right but he didn’t look like it.  Him being a decent option, correct, even if you needed patience. Sandi I feel good about, because my reasoning was right. Of course lots of people came to that conclusion, it was hardly unique. Heppell, well, so what, Hurley, underestimated but not feeling bad about it.

I learn to spell “Bialystock” although I will probably forget before long.

The most useful thing I saw is how holding would have been better. Beams, Roughy, and Swallow would all have been holds even though all had me, and a lot of others, selling too soon. So once again, being careful with trades seems good.

Love to hear what you all think.

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6 thoughts on “DejaVu – Prodigal Sons”

  1. Awesome write up.I did fall in the trap of O’meara turfing him when he went down and Trading Roughhead out early before he showed us form. Had Beams who was great at that price before injury. i Held Sandi a weeks more after round 9 as Ross was saying he’ll be right ( Guess we can never trust ross FURL)

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    1. Great write-up Father. Wasn’t aware of SCT this time last year so was not persuaded either way. Probably a good thing ;p

      Though I did go well with Sandi for a while I recall. Ross Lyon is a flog, but.

      Will you be doing something similar for this season’s prodigals? I have already completed my half-baked analysis (bar JLT2 scores to input) and have to say there are a few options I am considering at this stage. I’d be interested to compare.

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  2. Great to see you reviewing your own reviews FD it’s the best way to learn. This really highlights how hard it is to come back from an LTI. Makes me think twice before picking Nic Nat, Armo and others

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  3. Thanks FD. Due to your article, I thought I’d look back at my 2017 Geelong Review
    (http://supercoachtalk.com/team-review-2017-geelong/)

    My predictions:
    (Def)
    Correct: I said Tuohy would score the same or more. Went from averaging 81 to 89.
    Wrong: I was bullish on Thurlow and thought he would play more games (played 10). Only averaged 54.2.
    Correct: Stewart was named round 1, played 18 games and averaged 67.
    Neither: ZGuthrie played 7 games, but was too late to be a valuable cow from round 15, unless as a downgrade to free up cash elsewhere.

    (Mids)
    Correct: Danger, but hard to get wrong that one.
    Wrong: Joel Selwood went backwards somewhat dropping his average by 8 and missing 4 games.
    Wrong: Scott Selwood averaged 91 which was great value, but only played 11 games. So a *little* more solid than D Swallow, I think not.
    Correct: Parfitt played a number of games, as predicted…

    (Ruck)
    Wrong and right: I suggested no Geelong ruck was worth a look, while Smith went on to average 91, I also mentioned he wouldn’t be top 3.

    (Forwards)
    Correct: Aaron Black was the only player mentioned, simply because he was in a lot of teams. I got this one right in suggesting that he would be purely a depth player and Wylie Buzza has now passed him.

    To be fair, it was more of a pure review rather than recommendations, but there is still a tone of suggestiveness throughout.

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