Elite Numbers ’19 – Dustin Martin (RIC)

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 8 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Dusty ticks a lot of boxes for the season ahead……..

 

Premium History (Avg>100):

2013: 101.82 from 22

2015: 105.5 from 22

2016: 108.14 from 22

2017: 119.32 from 22

2018: 103.86 from 21

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 118.33 from 6 (low of 81 and a high of 160, 3/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

Bris: 109.17 from 6 (low of 54 and a high of 141, 1/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

Carl: 91.75 from 8 (low of 25 and a high of 159, 5/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Coll: 104.13 from 8 (low of 80 and a high of 134, 4/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

Ess: 104.22 from 9 (low of 51 and a high of 152, 4/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

Freo: 113.5 from 8 (low of 87 and a high of 144, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Geel: 107 from 6 (low of 88 and a high of 125, 2/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

GC: 128.6 from 5 (low of 91 and a high of 167, 1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)

GWS: 124.33 from 6 (low of 92 and a high of 150, 1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

Haw: 107.83 from 6 (low of 93 and a high of 119, 2/6 below 100)

Melb: 93 from 5 (low of 79 and a high of 118, 4/5 below 100)

NM: 105.5 from 6 (low of 64 and a high of 165, 3/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

Port: 117 from 5 (low of 84 and a high of 132, 1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)

StK: 100.5 from 8 (low of 73 and a high of 146, 5/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

Syd: 93.5 from 6 (low of 62 and a high of 126, 3/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

WC: 111.2 from 5 (low of 67 and a high of 155, 2/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

WB: 114.33 from 6 (low of 87 and a high of 150, 2/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

MCG: 107.42 from 66 (27/66 below 100, 20/66 120+)

2013: 93.31 from 13

2015: 99.64 from 14

2016: 116.71 from 14

2017: 126.91 from 11

2018: 103.71 from 14

 

Interstate: 111.07 from 28 (10/28 below 100, 14/28 120+)

2013: 116.17 from 6

2015: 118.67 from 6

2016: 92.17 from 6

2017: 114 from 6

2018: 116 from 4

 

MCG Wins: 109.27 from 48 (19/38 below 100, 15/38 120+)

2013: 100.44 from 9

2015: 90.89 from 9

2016: 126.57 from 7

2017: 131.67 from 9

2018: 103.71 from 14

 

MCG Losses: 102.5 from 18 (8/18 below 100, 5/18 120+)

2013: 77.25 from 4

2015: 115.4 from 5

2016: 106.86 from 7

2017: 105.5 from 2

2018: 0 from 0

 

Wins: 109.99 from 71 (27/71 below 100, 28/71 120+)

2013: 107 from 15

2015: 97.93 from 15

2016: 127.38 from 8

2017: 127.2 from 15

2018: 100.44 from 18

 

Losses: 103.61 from 38 (18/38 below 100, 10/38 120+)

2013: 90.71 from 7

2015: 121.71 from 7

2016: 97.14 from 14

2017: 102.43 from 7

2018: 124.33 from 3

 

Pre Bye: 108.78 from 55 (24/55 below 100, 19/55 120+)

2013: 104.3 from 10

2015: 109.1 from 10

2016: 109 from 12

2017: 117.91 from 11

2018: 103.67 from 12

 

Post Bye: 106.72 from 54 (21/54 below 100, 19/54 120+)

2013: 99.75 from 12

2015: 102.5 from 12

2016: 107.1 from 10

2017: 120.73 from 11

2018: 104.11 from 9

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 25.45

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 26: 106.43 from 14 (low of 85 and a high of 139, 6/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 26: 98.71 from 7 (low of 62 and a high of 160, 5/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Kicks: 16.10

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 17: 110.89 from 9 (low of 62 and a high of 160, 3/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 17: 98.58 from 12 (low of 64 and a high of 141, 8/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Handballs: 9.38

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 10: 104.83 from 12 (low of 85 and a high of 139, 7/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 10: 102.56 from 9 (low of 62 and a high of 160, 4/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

Marks: 3.76

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 4: 104.73 from 11 (low of 62 and a high of 141, 5/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 4: 102.9 from 10 (low of 64 and a high of 160, 6/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

Contested Possessions: 11.76

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 12: 109 from 13 (low of 83 and a high of 160, 5/13 below 10, 3/13 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 12: 95.5 from 8 (low of 62 and a high of 141, 6/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

Tackles: 2.05

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 101.57 from 7 (low of 62 and a high of 160, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 3: 105 from 14 (low of 64 and a high of 141, 7/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)

Clangers: 4.67

SC Avg when clangers below 5: 112.1 from 10 (low of 87 and a high of 160, 4/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 5: 96.36 from 11 (low of 62 and a high of 139, 7/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)

Time on Ground%: 82.90%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 83%: 107.15 from 13 (low of 62 and a high of 160, 5/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 83%: 98.5 from 8 (low of 64 and a high of 141, 6/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

 

Premium career stat averages:

Disposals:

2013: 24.45

2015: 26.18

2016: 31.09

2017: 30.32

2018: 25.48

 

Kicks:

2013: 16.82

2015: 17.41

2016: 19.41

2017: 19.73

2018: 16.10

 

Handballs:

2013: 7.64

2015: 8.77

2016: 11.68

2017: 10.59

2018: 9.38

 

Marks:

2013: 4.91

2015: 4.5

2016: 4.5

2017: 4.41

2018: 3.76

 

Contested Possessions:

2013: 7.05

2015: 9

2016: 12.59

2017: 14.23

2018: 11.76

 

Tackles:

2013: 2.77

2015: 4.05

2016: 3.64

2017: 3.55

2018: 2.05

 

Clangers:

2013: 2.68

2015: 3.91

2016: 5.14

2017: 5.23

2018: 4.67

 

Time on Ground %:

2013: 81.82%

2015: 79.77%

2016: 83.09%

2017: 85%

2018: 82.90%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2013: 69.52%

2015: 67.71%

2016: 67.40%

2017: 63.87%

2018: 65.42%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2013: 28.49%

2015: 34.08%

2016: 40.86%

2017: 48.45%

2018: 45.91%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 7 teams (Adel, Freo, GC, GWS, Port, WC, WB) with 5 matches pre-bye and 4 post bye in 2019.

Averages 107.42 from 66 matches at the MCG across his premium scoring history with 2 of the past 3 seasons recording a 115+ avg with 6 pre-bye and 4 against 2018 top 8 teams and 7 post bye with 4 against 2018 top 8 teams in 2019.

6.38 win/loss differential.

2.06 pre-bye/post bye differential.

 

Martin dropped from a 119 avg in his Brownlow medal and premiership season to approximately 104 which was the first time he has averaged below 105 since 2014. Decrements across all the major stat categories especially disposals dropping from 30.32 in 2018 to 25.48 in 2019 and contested possession dropping from 14.23 to 11.76 caused the approximate 15-point drop in average. Martin was utilised more in the forward line receiving less midfield rotations but with the arrival of T Lynch he should be receiving more midfield minutes. This should garner him more disposals and contested possessions improving the likelihood of returning to a 108+ avg. Also, at a reduced price it decreases the risk associated with the selection as the funds saved over 600,000+ selections could potentially allow a mid-pricer to be turned into a premium/etc.

Verdict: Strongly consider for M3-M5

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5 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Dustin Martin (RIC)”

  1. With Lynch arriving, it just seems so damn likely that Martin will rampage the midfield and be back to dominance, at least of the 110-ish kind.

    That said, Richmond have this weirdly communist habit of sharing the points around – but he seems very low risk for a decent, underpriced mid – even more so if the rumours of him limping to the finish line last season were true.

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  2. Would love to have him, but I’m not sure the sparks still there, the boy climbed the highest mountain the year before last and won everything, and has been handsomely rewarded for his work.A boyhood dream has been realised . Not to mention the fact that he came within a whisker of of having the rest of the year off from last week’s incident, if you think he was playing sore the last half of last year then see how he goes with playing with a medial strain.

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    1. Have to agree Joestar. While I hate to see anyone injured, from an SC perspective, this news makes the Dusty decision an easy one for me. It’s a no.

      Thanks Adam. Am struggling to keep up with your prolific output! Cheers 🙂

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    2. Thanks Adam (and Joestar with the update). A bad back and a medial strain will affect his output. He will still score enough for his price. Wait and see for me.

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  3. No, no, no, no, no, no…… massive anvil around my neck all last year.

    Just to be clear –

    NO!

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