Elite Numbers ’19 – Nat Fyfe (FRE)

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 22 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Adam doesn’t hand out ‘LOCKS’ willy-nilly…..just his 2nd here with Nat Fyfe…..

 

Premium History (Avg>100):

2011: 108.05 from 21

2013: 106.47 from 19

2014: 122.33 from 18

2015: 124.28 from 18

2016: 105.4 from 5

2017: 108.76 from 21

2018: 113.87 from 15

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 120.5 from 6 (low of 78 and a high of 158, 1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

Bris: 96.43 from 7 (low of 43 and a high of 143, 4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Carl: 113 from 7 (low of 53 and a high of 171, 4/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

Coll: 109.2 from 5 (low of 78 and a high of 138, 1/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

Ess: 113.17 from 6 (low of 89 and a high of 120, 2/6 below 100, 4/6 120+)

Geel: 103.29 from 7 (low of 49 and a high of 162, 2/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

GC: 140.33 from 6 (low of 116 and a high of 160, 4/6 120+)

GWS: 116.25 from 4 (low of 101 and a high of 132, 2/4 120+)

Haw: 102.5 from 6 (low of 80 and a high of 124, 2/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

Melb: 112.33 from 6 (low of 78 and a high of 128, 1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

NM: 137.11 from 9 (low of 108 and a high of 164, 8/9 120+)

Port: 112.17 from 6 (low of 75 and a high of 141, 1/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

Rich: 112.56 from 9 (low of 71 and a high of 142, 4/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)

StK: 88.67 from 6 (low of 58 and a high of 126, 4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

Syd: 119.83 from 6 (low of 101 and a high of 145, 2/6 120+)

WC: 113.08 from 12 (low of 62 and a high of 158, 2/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

WB: 114.71 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 151, 2/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

Domain Stadium: 113.03 from 58 (16/58 below 100, 24/58 120+)

2011: 106.92 from 12

2013: 109.27 from 11

2014: 128.1 from 10

2015: 117 from 10

2016: 108.33 from 3

2017: 107.92 from 12

 

Optus Stadium: 117.88 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 5/8 120+)

 

Interstate: 112.76 from 51 (13/51 below 100, 21/51 120+)

2011: 109.56 from 9

2013: 102.63 from 8

2014: 115.13 from 8

2015: 133.38 from 8

2016: 101 from 2

2017: 109.89 from 9

2018: 109.29 from 7

 

Domain Stadium Wins: 117.68 from 37 (9/37 below 100, 17/37 120+)

2011: 124.6 from 5

2013: 107.3 from 10

2014: 127.44 from 9

2015: 116.88 from 8

2016: 0 from 0

2017: 115.2 from 5

 

Optus Stadium Wins: 139.25 from 4 (4/4 120+)

Domain Stadium Losses: 104.86 from 21 (7/21 below 100, 7/21 120+)

2011: 94.29 from 7

2013: 129 from 1

2014: 134 from 1

2015: 117.5 from 2

2016: 108.33 from 3

2017: 102.71 from 7

 

Optus Stadium Losses: 96.5 from 4 (2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

 

Wins: 122.03 from 58 (12/63 below 100, 36/63 120+)

2011: 124.44 from 9

2013: 108.86 from 14

2014: 122.92 from 13

2015: 129.57 from 14

2016: 0 from 0

2017: 115.13 from 8

2018: 142.2 from 5

 

Losses: 102.85 from 53 (19/53 below 100, 14/53 120+)

2011: 95.75 from 12

2013: 97 from 4

2014: 120.8 from 5

2015: 105.75 from 4

2016: 105.4 from 5

2017: 104.85 from 13

2018: 99.7 from 10

 

Pre Bye: 116.05 from 81 (18/81 below 100, 36/81 120+)

2011: 107.07 from 14

2013: 111.88 from 8

2014: 120 from 7

2015: 134.27 from 11

2016: 105.4 from 5

2017: 99.33 from 12

2018: 123.75 from 12

 

Post Bye: 111.15 from 48 (15/48 below 100, 21/48 120+)

2011: 110 from 7

2013: 102.55 from 11

2014: 123.82 from 11

2015: 108.57 from 7

2016: 0 from 0

2017: 121.33 from 9

2018: 74.33 from 3

 

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 28.67

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 29: 141.25 from 8 (low of 114 and a high of 163, 7/8 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 29: 82.57 from 7 (low of 43 and a high of 114, 4/7 below 100)

Kicks: 13.6

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 14: 143.43 from 7 (low of 114 and a high of 163, 6/7 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 14: 88 from 8 (low of 43 and a high of 126, 4/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Handballs: 15.07

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 16: 142.43 from 7 (low of 101 and a high of 163, 6/7 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 16: 88.88 from 8 (low of 43 and a high of 120, 4/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Marks: 4.67

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 5: 129.13 from 8 (low of 78 and a high of 160, 1/8 below 100, 5/8 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 5: 96.43 from 7 (low of 43 and a high of 163, 3/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Contested Possessions: 16

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 16: 139.43 from 7 (low of 114 and a high of 163, 6/7 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 16: 91.5 from 8 (low of 43 and a high of 154, 4/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Tackles: 4

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 4: 131.22 from 9 (low of 101 and a high of 163, 6/9 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 4: 87.83 from 6 (low of 43 and a high of 151, 4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

Clangers: 5.13

SC Avg when clangers below 6: 118.29 from 7 (low of 66 and a high of 160, 2/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 6: 110 from 8 (low of 43 and a high of 163, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Time on Ground%: 81.93%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 82%: 123.75 from 12 (low of 75 and a high of 163, 2/12 below 100, 7/12 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 82%: 74.33 from 3 (low of 43 and a high of 114, 2/3 below 100)

 

Premium Career Stat Averages:

Disposals:

2011: 25.1

2013: 25.86

2014: 26.95

2015: 28.8

2016: 23.4

2017: 26.43

2018: 28.67

 

Kicks:

2011: 12.05

2013: 15.41

2014: 13

2015: 13.75

2016: 9.4

2017: 11.24

2018: 13.6

 

Handballs:

2011: 13.05

2013: 10.45

2014: 13.95

2015: 15.05

2016: 14

2017: 15.19

2018: 15.07

 

Marks:

2011: 5.29

2013: 4.45

2014: 3.95

2015: 4.2

2016: 4.2

2017: 4.52

2018: 4.67

 

Contested Possessions:

2011: 12.48

2013: 13.91

2014: 16.1

2015: 17.8

2016: 14.2

2017: 14.9

2018: 16

 

Tackles:

2011: 4.05

2013: 3.36

2014: 4.7

2015: 4.3

2016: 5.2

2017: 4.57

2018: 4

 

Clangers:

2011: 3.29

2013: 4.18

2014: 3.5

2015: 3.75

2016: 3.4

2017: 4.24

2018: 5.13

 

Time on Ground %:

2011: 88.38%

2013: 83.55%

2014: 84.75%

2015: 87%

2016: 79%

2017: 88.62%

2018: 81.93%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2011: 61.5%

2013: 63.6%

2014: 69.6%

2015: 69.6%

2016: 71.8%

2017: 73%

2018: 70%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2011: 49.53%

2013: 52.58%

2014: 59.30%

2015: 61.06%

2016: 60.68%

2017: 55.30%

2018: 53.93%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 12 teams (Adel, Carl, Ess, GC, GWS, Melb, NM, Port, Rich, Syd, WC, WB) with 8 against them pre-bye and 8 post bye in 2019.

117.88 from 8 at Optus Stadium in 2018 with 6 pre-bye and 6 post bye in 2019 as well as 3 of their first 4 matches there.

Averaged in 139.25 from 4 in Optus Stadium wins with 2 of their first 8 there against 2018 top 8 teams.

19.18 win/loss differential with a 120+ avg in wins in 3 of his past 4 seasons.

4.9 pre-bye/post bye differential.

45+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 29, kicks equal/exceed 14, handballs equal/exceed 16, contested possessions equal/exceed 16 and time on ground equals/exceeds 82%.

His scoring ability and potential is unquestionable and could easily finish the season as the highest averaging midfielder, but the prevalent concern is his durability as he has never played a full 22 games in a season across his 9-year career and has only managed 20+ games in 2 seasons. Is suited to a starting selection in comparison to an upgrade target as starting him alleviates some of the injury concerns and could potentially save you a trade if he suffers an injury as an upgrade target.

Verdict: Lock

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14 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Nat Fyfe (FRE)”

  1. You either start with him or you don’t touch him for the entire season. The only reason you don’t start with him is because you believe in the injury risks.

    Had him out of my team for a while but those first 3 games are just so enticing my fear of missing out kicks in. When the news about Yeo came that he was in doubt for round 1 i found a way to put Fyfe back in. Very few can match his ceiling and i’m prepared to risk having to trade him out.

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    1. I have J Kelly at M2 ( Cripps M1 and Neale M3 ) in place of Fyfe at the moment.

      I feel they both have injury risks and huge upside. They have also both lost crucial midfielders to their sides in Neale and Shiel. I’m pretty sure GWS has more depth to handle this than Freo.
      If it wasn’t for their durability issues I would still start both. As it stands I feel the safest option is to only start one.

      It was really hard to split these guys but in the end…..

      I just think GWS is likely to win a fair few more games this year. And most importantly are less likely to get smashed on the score board.
      For me this means hopefully Kelly will be the better buy.

      In the end, my heart still says Fyfe ,but my head wins.

      Kelly it is.

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  2. Oh I almost forgot.

    Thanks Adam for all your hard work compiling an amazing amount of data. Also for constantly coming to the party to provide solid stats to prove or disprove theories as they present themselves.

    I’m sure I speak for all of us at SCT .

    You are a legend!

    Thank you.

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  3. Fyfe really isn’t as injury prone as people are always saying. Aside from last year with his hamstring, and 2016 where he broke his leg, the majority of his missed games were actually through suspension, not injury.
    Absolute lock for me, along with Kelly.

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  4. BREAKING NEWS
    Nat Fyfe is going under the knife (minor surgery) on that elbow. Expected to be ready for Rd1.

    Don’t panic … just yet!

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    1. Didn’t seem to hinder him at all in the AFLX last night.

      He was really good. speaking of good……

      How good was Cripps !!

      You would have to be some bull headed Collingwood / Richmond fan not select him this year.

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        1. “Beach Cricket” He he classic.

          It did get a little more competitive in the last 2 games though.
          And thats when they both stood out the most.

          Any folks thinking of starting Macrea over Cripps at M1 have got rocks in their heads!

          On a side note…

          How good is this site going.I really can’t remember a preseason like it. So much invaluable insight coming in over the last few days/ weeks its actually hard to take it all in.

          Remember back in early Jan when it was basically just me you ,Ben ,TOF and a couple of others at most. Seems a long time ago now. But with the JLT just around the corner,It feels so close I can smell it.

          Lets just hope the early bird catches the worm!

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          1. Fab mate. Just sent Schwarz an email saying something similar. Reckon the site could explode this year.
            Keep up the excellent work FT. It’s all coming think and fast now … and yes, I can smell it too 🙂

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  5. Elite beach cricketers still too good for ordinary beach cricketers! Couldn’t agree more with the sentiment that site has reached new heights this year.

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  6. By the way cripps was first player in my team and i am on old tiger from way back, favorite player in afl since judd, how ironic.

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