Flavour Of The Week – Rd 3

Written by Chillo on April 4 2018

And this is why I begged you, BEGGED!, not to trade away your premiums last week. Fyfe, Zorko, Howe and The Bont all bounced back from first week trash to give us second round treasure. But, there’s always a but….

If you’re unlucky enough to be lumped with a crumbling Rocky, a broken-down Beamer, or one of the several other misfiring premiums that are dragging around a hefty break-even, now is the time to offload them before their price tags start doing an impression of the Titanic.

Yeah, I think “corrective trades” is a fairly filthy expression too, and you have to be careful with those 30 pieces of silver. But don’t be too proud to admit you’ve made a mistake – cut the cord now if you really think it will make your team better.

Here are the most popular trade ins, as of 12pm ADST, Wednesday April 4:

1. Tim Kelly (GEE, mid, $117 300)

Plus:

+ When people start mentioning your name alongside the likes of the GROAT Michael Barlow as a rookie phenom, you should feel pretty good about yourself. Another 27 possessions and 117 points for Kelly in the Easter Monday blockbuster.

+ That’s back-to-back tons for the 24th pick in last year’s draft, and leaves him with a ridiculous break-even of -166. That’s right, he’ll gain $75K just by walking onto the field next weekend!

+ Any lingering doubts over his job security completely evaporated on Monday. More than held his own alongside the much-hyped trio of his senior midfield teammates.

Minus:

– Dangerfield spent a huge chunk of the game hanging around the forward line against Hawthorn. As he regains fitness and confidence in his body, Danger will spend more time in the mids, and maybe push Kelly out a bit. Maybe.

– Ignore that. Just get him now, next week will be too late. He’s a jet combined with a gun combined with a star. He’s a Jeguar!

2. Riley Bonner (PTA, def, $257 300)

Plus:

+ It was always going to be a bit tougher for Riley this week against the Swans’ contested style of footy, but he stood up well with 18 touches and 5 marks.

+ Scores of 119 and 76 lands him a break-even of -44. Primed to soar past the $300K mark next week, this really is your last chance to grab him.

+ Jasper Pittard is still at least a couple of weeks (but check this!) away from returning from a hamstring complaint, so Bonner will be the Power’s rebounder of choice for at least that long.

Minus:

– Like many rebounding types, Bonner doesn’t really tackle much and hence relies on a steady stream of footy (mostly uncontested) for his scoring. You’ll be hoping that a sudden drought doesn’t hit.

– How long do you expect to have him in your team for? At this price, he’ll really need to continue to post big numbers to keep the cash generation going, otherwise you might be burning two trades on him in a very short period of time.

3. Jeremy Finlayson (GWS, mid/def, $123 900)

Plus:

+ In a fierce contest, Finlayson played like he’d been there his entire life. Remarkably composed and efficient in posting his first SC ton against the Pies, courtesy of 23 possessions, including 21 kicks!

+ May have been a borderline selection at the start of the season, but a solid JLT series, followed by scores of 87 and 106, have surely locked him into the Giants’ backline now. Has even found himself trusted with the responsibility of taking kick-ins at times.

+ He’s cheap, he has the added bonus of DPP status, and he’ll start making you whopping piles of lovely cash straight away. Lock him in!

Minus:

– Much like his Cats rookie counterpart at the top of this list, you have to squint pretty hard to find something wrong here. Finlayson has clearly taken over Zac Williams’ spot and barely missed a beat.

– He wears a lot of strapping on his knee, so maybe there’s an injury concern? #clutchingatstraws

4. Liam Ryan (WCE, fwd, $117 300)

Plus:

+ It doesn’t take long for crowds in the West to decide whether they like you or not, and they love Flyin’ Ryan. Liam feasted on the lame Dogs to the tune of 3 goals and 115 Supercoach points.

+ That ton compensates for a quiet-ish debut, and leaves Ryan with a break-even of -84. A couple of home games coming up at the fantastic Optus Stadium should be a nice stage for Ryan to further display his talents.

+ A few injury niggles to fellow excitement machine Willie Rioli, coupled with his own good form, have probably seen Ryan’s stock advance to the point where he is well and truly a safe selection in the Eagles’ 22.

Minus:

– He’s a small forward, so his scoring will be on the erratic side of rollercoaster. You’ll be nervous with him on your field – but possibly more nervous with him on the bench!

– WCE play a lot of Sunday games, which pretty much excludes Ryan from the emergency loophole also. You’ll just have to wing it, I’m afraid.

5. Kade Simpson (CAR, def, $516 300)

Plus:

+ Everyone says Kade is too old, Kade says well, we’ll just see about that. The wily old Blue has gone bang-bang with scores of 150 and 115 to start his 16th season in the AFL.

+ Coming up on his 34th birthday, Simpson is currently the highest averaging defender in the game, just ahead of the prolific Rory Laird. We all pondered during the off-season who would get Doc’s backline distributor role; we really need not have thought so hard.

+ Kade shapes as the obvious option if you’ve lost patience with defensive spuds such as Brandon Ellis or Michael Hibberd.

Minus:

– Overall, he has a pretty solid record. Looking closer though, Simpson generally posts a couple of big scores each year, surrounded by a lot of 80s and 90s. Is it possible he’s already done his dash for 2018?

– Having missed only 5 games in 13 seasons, Simpson has been an unsung ironman of the AFL…can he keep it going? Or will Father Time finally catch up with Father Blue?

#6 – 10: Stephen CONIGLIO (GWS), Tom MITCHELL (HAW), Tim TARANTO (GWS), Dustin MARTIN (RIC), Nick HOLMAN (GCS)

Most traded OUT players this week: Cameron RAYNER (BRL), Matt CROUCH (ADE), Michael HIBBERD (MEL), Aaron NAUGHTON (WBD), Tom ROCKLIFF (PTA), Paddy DOW (CAR), Sam MENEGOLA (GEE), Luke DAHLHAUS (WBD), Kane LAMBERT (RIC), Hunter CLARK (STK)

Most popular trades so far this week:

Which of these popular picks are you trading in this week? (up to two choices)

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37 thoughts on “Flavour Of The Week – Rd 3”

    1. thinking of upgrading Hunter Clark via Garlett DPP to Fisher and he then becomes my F5….not 100% sold on the move just yet and does take 100k out of my danger budget to do so….thoughts?

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    1. I think Curnow is a good option. Have a look at his improving stats from last year start to end. He is hopefully continuing the trend

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    1. I’m either that and 1 trade or 2 trades and bringing in Ruck goodness. Yet to decide.

      Just be warned simmo’s r1 was an outlier and he will be more 115 which is a sidewards trade.

      Shaw has some appeal. Seems that he’s not being hurt so much by Whitfield as we feared.

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  1. Oh my god, I am so Jealous that you thought of the 30 pieces of silver thing and I didn’t! That’s like, a priest sort of thing as I recall. Hat’s off to you.

    Bloody Hibberd. No idea what to do with him.

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      1. Me too!

        Him and Lambert I’ve been swinging in and out of my side like a mad man. The fact that I can’t keep still on any of the trades makes me feel like I should hold. Really don’t want to ‘premo/mid-price’ correct just yet. But, ah, it’s tough. Hibberd I have no confidence in his SC role so far, and Lambert looked amazing for the 1st quarter last week and then disappeared again (for the second week in a row) but keeps lining up in the middle and is running all over the place. Both could come good. Very, very stuck in the decision this week.

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    1. Just my opinion…
      Curnow playing that lead-up tall forward role could see him average around the 90 mark this season at most (similarly to what he produced towards the back end of last season) with an inconsistent scoring pattern (which is what is expected from a tall forward). Already in the first 2 rounds this season he has produced 1 of his big scores (126) and another good score (96) that would contribute to him averaging 90 this season.
      Okay, so, based on the prediction that he will average 90 (assuming he plays every game), 22 * 90 = 1980. Then subtract his scores from the first two rounds , 1980 – 126 – 96 = 1758. Then, for the remaining 20 rounds for him to average 90, 1758/20 = 87.9.
      That means, according to the 90 average prediction, he would continue to average 87.9 for the rest of the season. Would you be happy to have Curnow averaging at 87.9 for the rest of the season as a keeper? It is definite value as he is priced at a 74.2 average (13.7 increase), however you would be looking for low 90s+ for a FWD line keeper I would’ve thought…
      Just remember this is all assuming he would average 90 for the season, so if you believe he can average higher than that, then take the punt.
      This theory is based on something I have read either on this website or another SuperCoach thread (can’t remember) and I have mainly written this as practice for my own benefit as well as the community’s.
      So, I am definitely on the Taranto bandwagon as so far this season he has seen a 14% TOG increase and with the loss of Scully, Griffen and even Whitfield to a half-back role, he should see extended midfield minutes from last season. Additionally, he won’t get any attention from opposing teams due to the presence of other high-quality midfielders at GWS which would allow him to do what he pleases!
      Jeeze, I just wrote way more than I originally intended ahah!

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      1. AWESOME write-up Ollie, great food-for-thought for the SCTalk community.

        I suppose I’m looking at Curnow as having the potential to continue his notable 2nd-year growth into his 3rd year. And yes, I’d be happy with a 90 average from here on, but again, hoping / expecting a bit more.

        He has played up to the wing quite a bit so far in his first 2 games, and yes, he’s not going to score 5 goals very often (Round 1), but a 96 in Round 2 with only 2 goals is very promising. Plus, 12 of his 18 disposals in R2 were contested.

        And at only $400k, he’ll at least make some money in the short-term.

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      2. Great discussion! I’ve been a Taranto fan since Buddy wiped him out in the JLT in his rookie year. The kid bounced straight back up and had about 90 points from memory. “Second year syndrome” is the only worry for mine. Maybe he won’t finish in the top 10 forwards, but he’s so cheap, does it really matter?

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      3. Also, this same concept could be more useful for larger or more extreme data sets such as Franklin’s 131 ave to start of 2018. Prediction a 100ppg ave and assuming he plays every game:

        100*22=2200
        2200-175-87=1938
        1938/(22-2)=96.9ppg ave for the remainder of the season to equal a 100ppg overall season ave.

        This way of thinking suggests that when looking to trade a player in, the decision should most often be made based upon a role or factor change that triggers a new scoring pattern rather than an unanswered good patch of form. (this applies to players that have an established scoring pattern).

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        1. I remember MJ first bringing my attention to these Supercoach mathematics about five years ago 😉 Don’t think there is an actual thread, more like plenty of comments……..

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  2. Naughton – Bonner.
    Rayner – Taranto. 94.6k remaining.

    Have Hibberd in a 3 premo backline as my only other real concern. Two cows not mooing spells more trouble than him in my books. Taking the midpriced punt.

    Very tempted by Selwood though.

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  3. T/U Mills and Naughton to Bonnar and Fisher

    T/D Hold your nerve

    I think Bonnar should score about the same as Mills and Fisher could easily reach 400k and be a simple upgrade option.
    Also if I do the trades it would with give me the $ to do O’Meara and Brayshaw to Dangerfield and a rookie in two weeks time assuming all three score as expected.

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  4. Great job Chillo.

    I’m so excited that I get to burn my first 2 trades for the year. Tom Mitchell is gone after his 40 possession effort this week. Pathetic!

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  5. Lambert lambert lambert… what do we do with u son so much temptation with curnow and Taranto creeping into calculation or even down to a rookie like Ryan as I only have ZGL & fritsch atm with lobb at F6 so I’m stacked up fwd & it’d give me a 450k kitty for dusty in 4-5 rounds time.

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  6. Curnow’s being thrown around a lot in this thread. Just to clarify, are we talking:
    * Ed 473.2K (mid) with scores of 95 and 148
    * Charlie 408.1K (fwd) with scores of 126 and 96
    Assuming it’s a lot of Kouta 2.0 love (got him in my team) but thought it’s worth clarifying.

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    1. Tough one… Wouldn’t go there myself especially with Christensen about 30k dearer but I do see how it could work out.

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    1. I don’t know why there is such a stigma surrounding Gray’s selection in the SuperCoach community. Inconsistent scores? Round 10 bye? Personally, I believe he’s a good selection as he has seen greater midfield minutes in the last few rounds of last season and his JLT and Round 2 performances and I think this will only increase due to Port’s inclusions of Motlop and Rocky. I think I read that someone said he had 18 CBAs on the weekend!
      I will be jumping right on after his Round 10 bye!

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      1. The fact he was suspended Rd1 means he’s guaranteed to miss 20% of the first 10 weeks, which is not ideal.

        Last year he was parked in the forward line and was incredibly inconsistent meaning he could be picked up way cheaper if that trend continued.

        No-one is doubting him to pump out 90+ for the season and I’m sure many will jump on Rd11.

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