Flavour Of The Week – Rd 4

Written by Chillo on April 10 2018

It’s Rage Trade City at Supercoach Central this week, as coaches abandon ship on HMS Billings and the Zerrett Steamboat. Elsewhere, most savvy coaches are trying to shore up their cash generation by getting all the right cows.

Here are the most popular trade ins, as of 12pm ADST, Tuesday April 10:

1. Ed Richards (WBD, def, $135 300)

Plus:

+ The grand-nephew of Louie the Lip, Ed Richards let his footy do the talking in only his second senior game. Richards recorded 17 possessions and 7 marks for 81 points in the Dogs’ upset win over the Bombers.

+ Now on the bubble with a break-even of -50, Richards shapes as the prime rookie correctional option this week. As the 16th pick in the draft, his price tag is quite reasonable compared to some of his lesser-performed classmates.

+ Playing well in a winning team can’t hurt his prospects of becoming a permanent fixture in the team. Also, that characteristic shock of red hair makes him easy to spot on the field!

Minus:

– Richards came into the team at the expense of the similarly-styled Hayden Crozier, who suffered a knee injury a couple of weeks back. He could return as soon as this week – possibly at Ed’s expense.

– Provided good run out of the back half against the Bombers, but was a bit of a seagull, with only two of his 17 possessions being contested. He’ll need to maintain good efficiency to keep his scoring up.

2. Stephen Coniglio (GWS, mid, $499 100)

Plus:

+ Cogs was an under-priced special at the start of the season, and he has rewarded his owners with interest. Saturday night’s effort against the Swans was Coniglio’s third consecutive score of 120+.

+ Despite the price rise, Coniglio is still priced at a sub-premium level, and is set to increase in value even more this coming weekend, with a break-even of only 53.

+ There were some doubts expressed in the pre-season whether Coniglio would be a midfield keeper. He’s doing his best to erase those doubts – currently ranked fourth amongst midfielders, behind the 3 M’s (Martin, Macrae and Mitchell).

Minus:

– The reason Coniglio started at such value was an injury-riddled 2017 campaign, where he twice suffered ankle problems and missed 15 games. In a six year career, he’s only managed to play more than 18 games once (21 in 2016).

– There’ll still be nagging doubts over whether Coniglio is going to finish the season as an elite mid. As Father Dougal has suggested, the most likely scenario is reversion to the mean, which would leave Cogs in that “second bracket” of players in the position – not ideal.

3. Tom Mitchell (GWS, mid, $687 400)

Plus:

+ It’s been suggested that if there was one footy left on the planet, he could find it. Titch did it again against the reigning premiers, diligently compiling a third consecutive game of 40+ possessions for 149 points.

+ Far and away the most prolific player in the competition to date. Averaging a gargantuan 154.7 ppg and has outscored the next best player by more than 70 points!

+ Dimma tried to slow him down by tagging him with Graham, I’m not really sure why. On the rare occasions Titch can’t get the ball, he just tackles more. Either way, he makes Supercoaches smile!

Minus:

– At this early stage, the only way to get a player at this price is to trade out another premium, which is generally a no-no in Supercoach world. Unless you have someone with an LTI (possibly Ablett), you should re-consider in the interest of conserving trades.

– Not much else. He’s very expensive, but in my opinion he’s totally worth it, and I’m not sure why you didn’t start with him. The worst thing about him is that he doesn’t play for my Swans anymore. Damn you, Horse!

4. Jesse Hogan (MEL, fwd, $437 500)

Plus:

+ A dynamite start to the season for the 2015 Rising Star, backing up last week’s 145 with another 125 against the Roos, coming from a career-high 26 possessions.

+ Has expressed an eagerness to get more footy by moving further up the field. It won’t help his goal-kicking numbers, but in terms of Supercoach, it will definitely make him a more viable prospect for your forward line.

+ The first-round 79 drops out of his cycle, leaving him with a break-even of -10. He is as cheap this week as he will be for a while, possibly the remainder of the season.

Minus:

– As mobile as Hogan is, he’s still essentially a key forward, and prone to the scoring volatility that generally comes with players in that position.

– This is also reflected in his scoring history, where he has averaged in the 70s for three consecutive seasons. It’s that whole long-term gain vs short-term form debate again!

5. Mitch Crowden (FRE, mid/fwd, $117 300)

Plus:

+ I’ll be honest: Crowden was not on my pre-season radar at all! But after watching him against the Suns last weekend, I was impressed. 13 possessions, six marks, a goal, and a team-high 19 “pressure acts” presented the Dockers rookie with 72 points in his second game.

+ After a quiet 29 point debut, the 59th pick in the draft is now on the bubble with a break-even of -31. If Freo keep winning, and Crowden keeps up that maniacal forward pressure that Ross loves so much, you’ll be seeing some nice cash generation in coming weeks.

+ Crowden’s DPP status means he can be used as an early downgrade for a misfiring Brayshaw, or the unfortunate Ryan.

Minus:

– Not a big possession getter, so he’ll need to keep up those defensive stats to maintain his scoring.

– FURL! Job security will always be a concern for rookies in purple.

#6 – 10: Jack HIGGINS (RIC), Paul SEEDSMAN (ADE), Nathan FYFE (FRE), Lance FRANKLIN (SYD), Bryce GIBBS (ADE) 

Most traded OUT players this week: David ARMITAGE (STK), Andrew BRAYSHAW (FRE), Gary ABLETT (GEE), Jack BILLINGS (STK), Zach MERRETT (ESS), Jaidyn STEPHENSON (COL), Liam RYAN (WCE), Jack GRAHAM (RIC), Jacob TOWNSEND (RIC), Paddy DOW (CAR)

Most popular trades so far this week:

Which of these popular picks are you bringing in this week? (up to two choices)

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28 thoughts on “Flavour Of The Week – Rd 4”

  1. 3rd most popular trade is Billings to Hogan?!?

    Really!

    Billings scored 133 two weeks ago and will no doubt improve on his score from last week. He will finish the season, if not in the top 6 Forwards then very close. Hogan will not keep producing the way he has so far this season. I don’t understand this trade!

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    1. Hey LGCF – the trade table has changed a bit since I wrote this, people tend to calm down a bit and reverse their rage trades….

      ….but Billings to Hogan is still in the top ten!

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  2. Would love some feedback on whether I need to make any trades this week based on my current lineup.

    28 trades left and have $239,800 in the bank

    DEF:
    Laird, Hibberd, Bonner, Doedee, Finlayson, Murray, (Naughton, Murphy)

    MID:
    Mitchell, Martin, Kelly, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Brayshaw, LDU, Banfield)

    RCK:
    Martin, Gawn, (Olango)

    FWD:
    Heeney, Billings, Smith, Sicily, Waterman, Fritsch, (Ryan, Garlett)

    Unsure whether to trade Ryan and Naughton, and whether $239,800 is too much to have in the bank.

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    1. Well, if there is no clear good use for that cash then I wouldn’t spend it just to spend it. All I would do is maybe trade Ryan, since him being out a long time is bad. With that cash you might be able to go up, but if you need to go down and have it for when you need it that’s ok. For sure don’t just spend it though, use it carefully.

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    2. Higgins and Coffield are possibly 1 week off from coming into most teams should they score say 60-70 this week so that is two potential rookie correction trades in round 5. Taking the above into account $200,000 is too much to carry into round 6.

      Try to get to a premium with a mid pricer?

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  3. Will need a forward rookie to replace LTI to L Ryan so looking at J.Henry. Hoping he may have better JB than Crowden, with Geelongs current injuries

    TU : J Henry (Geel) $123,900 Av 60 BE -46
    TD: M Crowden (Freo) $117,300 Av 50.5 BE -31

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    1. Remember Henry’s first score was from 31% ToG. Clearly has the potential to score well with Taylor and Henderson out of the team but JS may be an issue.

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  4. Probably better off posting this in Trade Talk Banksy.

    However , i will make an exception. It is not good to have so much money in the Bank.
    So you could Trade LDU or Brayshaw to Crowden and then go Ryan to Hogan as you don’t really want to rely on 2 Fwd Rookies in Waterman , Fritsch and Garlett week in and week out.

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  5. Im a bit surprised people arnt trading in robbie gray. Even tho his hasnt scored any rediculously high scores, he has been consistant as he has scored over 100 in both his games and is playing alot more midfeild than he did last year and with jack watts and motlopp in the fwd line gray may not need to go into the fwd as much. He is also canser free and I reckon he looks primed to get back to the supercoach beast he once was. Any reason why people are not looking at him?

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    1. I think, as with all Port and GC players, its mainly due to missing round 9. But if you thought his scoring potential justifies sitting him on the pine for a round he’s an interesting selection especially if you’re confident in your bench rookies. I think he’ll be a popular upgrade target round 10 if he continues to go well

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  6. Have both L Ryan & Giles-Langdon in my forward line, both injured, so will be trading one out. L Ryan gives me more money to spend, and I think will be out injured the longer, but is averaging a lot more than Giles Langdon. Thoughts?

    TU – Trade out L Ryan – cash can be used elsewhere
    TD – Trade out Giles-Langdon – he wasn’t doing much anyway

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    1. While his average will stay high, his total score will be 0 for the next 10-12 weeks. I think ZGL will be out 3 weeks at this stage (assuming he’s right back in), so it makes more sense to move Ryan out from a cash-generation perspective (which is the main reason we have rookies to start with).

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  7. I feel not getting Coniglio was an error. He has outscored J.Kelly every game and has gathered more possessions. It it worth corrective trading Kelly ($600k) to Coniglio ($500k)?

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  8. Chances Walters will be a top 6 fwd?
    TU Yes
    TD No

    Comment for who you think will be Top 6.
    Current top 6 in order
    Franklin,Hogan, Westoff,McLean,Walters, and Acres.

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  9. T/U: A.Brayshaw & R.Lobb > M.Crowden & T.McLean
    Or
    T/D: L.Ryan / LDU & R.Lobb > M.Crowden & a player below 476K (Petracca, Curnow, Hogan etc.)

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  10. Just on Richard’s JS – Crozier looked TERRIBLE during PS and R1 before he got hurt, and Richards upside kind of makes him the opposite of a catch-22; if the Dogs keep winning, then he won’t get dropped, and if they go back to sucking, then he stays in because Play The Kids.

    Naughton is pretty safe for now but Lewis Young and Roberts were awesome in the twos on the weekend, and at least one of them will come in for Cordy. If they outplay Naughton then he *could* (but probably won’t) lose his spot.

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  11. Current Top 10 defenders .Who stays who goes from this list.
    Simpson,Laird, Hurn,L.Ryan,Savage,Rance,Shaw,Howe,Stewart, Doedee

    Notable Absentee’s
    Hurley (14) J.Lloyd (17) J.J (24) B. Vince (33) Yeo (35) Hibberd (40)

    I’m Thinking Hurley to enter at the expense of Doedee. Vince might be a sneaky chance to get in the top 10. Hibberd’s not looking any where near top 10 and Yeo was still in the negatives at 3/4 time, That’s just plain scary !!

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    1. The top 6 will probably be from the same group that averaged the most last year with regard to defenders.
      Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Hibberd, Howe, Houli, Simpson & Roberton (not in order) once the season gets into full swing.

      To round off others who may be a chance to round out the top 10; Hurn, because WCE have settled experienced backline & Lloyd?

      I think the Geelong defenders scores will drop slightly once Taylor and Henderson are back.

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      1. I think shaw could be a top defender again. Savage has been pretty consistant since he has taken leigh montangas role and if he can keep it up he will be there. I also like the look of l ryan from freo. A big sneaky i believe to get in there is witherden from the lions. Anyone else liking the look of witherden?

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        1. Agree on those 3.

          No way that Roberton is a top 6 defender unless Savage gets dropped.

          Yeo, Hibberd and Howe will be around the top 10, but I would not give them certainty of being top 6.

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