Game Chat – Essendon vs Sydney

Written by Thommo on July 27 2018

WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Friday, July 27, 7.50pm AEST

SUMMARY
Expect a fired-up Sydney outfit on Friday night. Nobody expected what unfolded last Saturday, when Gold Coast came from 30 points down to defeat the Swans at the SCG by 24 points. It was the upset of the season, perhaps the decade and maybe the century, as the weakened Suns were without a group of their key players and were coming off an 11-game losing streak. It was a bad loss for the Swans as they fight for a finals spot with a tough run of games to come. Essendon remained in the hunt for a finals position with a strong victory over Fremantle at Etihad Stadium, stretching its run of form to include seven wins from its previous nine games. The Bombers were boosted by the return of key pair Orazio Fantasia (five goals) and David Zaharakis (26 disposals) for the clash after their injury issues and the duo were dynamic against the Dockers. A win for the Bombers this week would be huge in their bid for a top-eight place.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS
EF, 2017, Sydney 19.7 (121) d Essendon 8.8 (56) at the SCG
R14, 2017, Sydney 11.20 (86) d Essendon 12.13 (85) at the SCG
R7, 2016, Sydney 20.15 (135) d Essendon 7.12 (54) at the SCG
R1, 2015, Sydney 10.12 (72) d Essendon 9.6 (60) at ANZ Stadium
R19, 2014, Sydney 11.13 (79) d Essendon 8.9 (57) at the SCG

Thommo’s Tip: Bombers by 12 points.

Who wins?

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51 thoughts on “Game Chat – Essendon vs Sydney”

  1. trade which of the following to O’Riordan before the bounce tonight..

    TU- Naughton 226k

    TD- Taylor 202k

    unfortunately both are as bad as each other and similar JS

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  2. Would love some help deciding on my last forward upgrade. 2 Trades left afterwards.

    TU: Ed Phillips to a Forward under 454k (Open to suggestions on who). Leaves Fritsch as F7 and Ahearn at M9.

    TD: Fritsch or Ahearn to Dev Smith. Leaves the non traded one as F7 afterwards but no viable M9.

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    1. Averaged 2 last year, using FD regression towards the mean I think he’s due for a big’un!

      Also,Buddy Franklin averages 4.9 goals a game (as a Swan) after being held goalless the match before (i.e. last week) – Courtesy of @sirswampthing

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  3. Searching through some options.
    Relevant to this game a bit if I want to jump on using a couple trades this week.

    Looking at Angus Style as a NON-PLAYING DPP LOOPHOLE.

    Have $400k with 3 trades left. I’ve done a bit of simple math, and it looks like I will need one DOWNGRADE to grab two upgrades to fill out the team.

    Thinking, with my team structure, those two trades will give me D7/M7/F7 option via DPP swinging. And then my final trade would basically be for whatever extra MID(M9/M10) I want with the funds I’ll have remaining.

    So, Sorry bout that long winded thang, but maybe two questions.

    Does it sound like a decent plan, using the last 3 trades in this way (if it matters…I’d be in no rush to use my final upgrade trade, just in case of LTIs, etc.) And is Angus Styles a good NONPLAYING DEF/MID LOOP?

    Thanks!

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  4. NO LATE CHANGES

    FINAL INTERCHANGES
    Essendon: Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford, Aaron Francis, Matt Guelfi
    Sydney: Nic Newman, Jordan Dawson, Colin O’Riordan, Robbie Fox

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  5. I ended up thinking over the last 30 mins or so…
    Best to hold. My scenario won’t likely change much. And I have some loopholes just in case Buddy or even T McD
    (in DEF) have shockers. I can still (hopefully) maximize my score.

    I’d still love an answer on ‘best non-playing DPP’, or a poll or something. Maybe some teams are bringing in Angus Brayshaw. Ive been considering it. He’s been in a lot of poles recently, and even going way back to the preseason! Just inked a new deal and he’s been really sound around the ground when you watch him play. In my team scenario, with all of my DPPs flying all over the field from week to week (both as playing and non-playing)…getting a good def/mid DPP would open up so much coverage. If there is any chance of a poll or a discussion here that’d be great!

    I feel like, for me at least, this is a case of me thinking “what is DPP worth?”

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  6. I don’t get the scoring at times…Lylod 5 touches that have been hardly contested or important…..28 points!! Sinclair was on 10 after 3 touches…. kicks a goal (important play) then intercepts pass for a kick with no hitouts in that time….ends up on 29 at qtr time!

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  7. How can you push someone else in the back and be paid a free kick for it after the siren?
    Free kick count 17-7.

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  8. Swans have stopped even trying to get it to Buddy. Not good for Hurley, after scoring 33 in the first, only scored 2 in the second qtr!

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    1. Revealed buddy has maybe trained 20 minutes all year.

      Take him off for the rest of the season until he is fit.

      Worst $10 mil ever?

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  9. Sydney cooked by 3/4 time. Well deserved loss. If we make the finals this year we will not be competitive.

    But I am fucking sick of seeing free kick outcomes like 28-14.

    It’s clear we are not getting a fair go and I’d rather see us walk off the ground and wear a huge fine than see this continue into 2019.

    We’ve had by far the worst free kick differential over the last 15 years, over 1400 free kicks less than the most favored team, and nearly twice as bad as the next worst team.

    There is no way that is in any way fair. Or deserved.

    It’s getting to the point of not even being able to watch footy any more.

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    1. Are you kidding? Buddy scored 2 goals tonight. One off a free kick that was 50/50 at best and the other was a clear high, forceful push out of Hurley that resulted in his second goal.

      Essendon smashed Sydney tonight in inside 50’s and scoring shots based off good pressure around the ball. The free kick count was not responsible for Sydney’s loss tonight.

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      1. I don’t think he said anywhere the free kick count contributed to the result of the game.

        It just impacts how you view the game. It’s not fun to watch games that have very lopsided umpiring – especially when it always seems to favour the home side. Highlighting your frustration at Buddy getting a goal from a free kick/missed free kick just emphasises this point. Did you stop to consider that the swans fans/neutrals are also frustrated when the same thing happens the other way?

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        1. Actually – I do think some of those soft frees in front of goal, particularly in the first half contributed to the result of the game.

          Huge momentum shift with Brown’s free and subsequent goal after the siren at half time.

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    2. Sorry HH, I love the Swans too but in a lot of ways they deserve the free kick count to go against them. Lingy just about drove me mad last night with his criticism of Sydney’s game style, but he’s right – they play slow, methodical footy. The Bombers (among other teams) play a much more uptempo, direct style, which puts a lot more pressure on the opposition and potentially leads to them conceding free kicks.
      Dane Rampe is sixth in the league for free kicks against this year. He’s the only recognised defender in the top 20 for that statistic, and with good reason – he spends most weekends desperately trying to keep the floodgates from bursting open. That is supported by the incredible inside 50 disparity that the Swans seem to give away every week. Based on that stat, there is no way they should be thinking of finals this year.
      Sydney really do need to change their game style. They might lose if they change, but they won’t win if they don’t.

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      1. Ross Lyon and Freo played a very defensive game for years.

        2 years ago we started to move the ball quicker and attack more.
        We also started to recruit some guys with genuine leg speed.
        Brad Hill, Matera , Cerra and Giro to name a few.

        We got thrashed early, but we are looking better now. ( At least at home)

        Sydney really needs to introduce some more pace/ youth if they are going to start taking the game on and scoring more.

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  10. The Good News :- You get home Friday night to hear Fox Footy give your player ( Michael Hurley) 3 votes for B.O.G.
    The Bad News :- You check your SuperCoach scores to find he scored 77 points 🙁

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    1. I don’t think he’ll be getting the 3 votes from the umpires. Defenders can poll well when they get a ton of intercepts, but he only got a fairly pedestrian 7.

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      1. you’re kidding right?? A match and votes isn’t and never should be about how someone scores fantasy points. He played all over one of the best Fwds in the modern game … not an easy feat and he played fantastically well … may not mean points in SC, but in terms of real footy, it was worth more than anything a score gets.

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        1. No, I’m not kidding. The umpires don’t look at a stat sheet before handing out votes, but the fact is that there are some stats that are more strongly correlated with Brownlow votes than others. Intercepts are one of those stats, particularly when we are talking about defenders.

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  11. As evident by the recent 2019 discussion thread several supercoachers are casting an eye towards 2019 and over the next 5 weeks in the game chat threads I will try to list several options to strongly consider next year.

    Z Merrett:
    Current 2018 Avg: 98.67
    Projected 2018 Avg: 99 to 103 (99 if 100 Avg over the last month and 103 if 120 avg over the last month)
    Projected 2019 Price: Approximately 540,000 to 565,000

    2018 Wins Avg (excluding injury affected game in Rd1): 111.44 from 9 (low of 89 and a high of 123, 1/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
    If he maintains a 110+ avg in wins it will be the 3rd consecutive year he has averaged 110+ in wins.
    Wins Avg since 2016: 114.04 from 24 (low of 83 and a high of 141, 2/24 below 90, 6/24 below 100, 15/24 110+, 8/24 120+)

    2017 Disposals Avg: 29.95
    2018 Disposals Avg: 25.5

    2018 SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 26: 115.5 from 10 (10/10 100+, 8/10 110+)
    2018 SC Avg when disposals below 26: 77.63 from 8 (6/8 below 100)

    2017 Contested Possession Rate: 30.05%
    2018 Contested Possession Rate: 41.39%

    2017 Tackles Avg: 5.55
    2018 Tackles Avg: 6.17

    2017 Time on Ground Avg: 76.90%
    2018 Time on Ground Avg (excluding injury affected game): 78.76%

    Presents great value next year if he can maintain or improve the aforementioned stats as well as Essendon potentially winning more games which will be beneficial for his average.

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    1. Good call. There’s no doubt the Rd 1 concussion took a while to get over (even though he played the next week – poor decision IMO). If he falls within the price range you quoted, he’ll be one of the first picked for mine in 2019, just on consistency alone.

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      1. Agree. It’s as simple as remove his slow start from concussion, he’s averaging 107. Put in some natural progression like this year (+CP, + tackles etc) and he’s an easy pick at that price.

        8 x 100+ on the trot now after last night, he’s well and truly back to the way he was playing as a top 10 midfielder.

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        1. Agreed!

          Special thanks to Devon Smith, Dyson Heppell playing some great contested footy & the big bodied “Mike” Myers seriously crashing some centre clearances creating space Hutta

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        2. yeah I’m regretting picking up westhoff instead of zerret – but went with the extra dual due to all the injuries …

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          1. You won’t regret it if/when a premium onballer or forward is rested come R22/23 when pointy end of SC finals are on Macca….as long as it’s not Westhoff!

            You made the right choice 😉

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