HitOuts To Advantage

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 24 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Below are the total and average hitouts and hitouts to advantage for SC relevant ruckman as well as their hitouts to advantage rate over the past 4 seasons. The players mentioned are sorted by their 2019 supercoach starting price.

 

B Grundy:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

848

714

548

462

Games played

22

20

21

19

Avg

38.55

35.7

26.10

24.32

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

270

194

156

152

Games played

22

20

21

19

Avg

12.27

9.7

7.43

8

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

31.84%

27.17%

28.47%

32.90%

Games played

22

20

21

19

 

M Gawn:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

1000

466

928

485

Games played

22

13

22

13

Avg

45.45

35.85

42.18

37.31

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

357

151

314

155

Games played

22

13

22

13

Avg

16.23

11.62

14.27

11.92

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

35.7%

32.40%

33.84%

31.96%

Games played

22

13

22

13

 

S Martin:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

745

770

558

650

Games played

22

22

20

20

Avg

33.86

35

27.9

32.5

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

236

231

169

162

Games played

22

22

20

20

Avg

10.73

10.5

8.45

8.1

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

31.68%

30%

30.29%

24.92%

Games played

22

22

20

20

 

B McEvoy:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

524

712

375

297

Games played

17

22

21

15

Avg

30.82

32.36

17.86

19.8

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

158

219

86

83

Games played

17

22

21

15

Avg

9.29

9.95

4.10

5.53

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

30.15%

30.76%

22.93%

27.95%

Games played

17

22

21

15

 

 

J Westhoff:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

183

27

60

47

Games played

22

22

22

22

Avg

8.32

1.23

2.73

2.14

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

43

8

19

13

Games played

22

22

22

22

Avg

1.95

0.36

0.86

0.59

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

23.50%

29.63%

31.67%

27.66%

Games played

22

22

22

22

 

 

T Goldstein:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

783

576

771

937

Games played

22

19

21

21

Avg

35.59

30.32

36.71

44.62

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

242

188

235

291

Games played

22

19

21

21

Avg

11

9.89

11.19

13.86

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

30.91%

32.64%

30.48%

31.06%

Games played

22

19

21

21

 

T Nankervis:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

524

506

99

42

Games played

21

21

7

5

Avg

24.95

24.10

14.14

8.4

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

158

143

38

13

Games played

21

21

7

5

Avg

7.52

6.81

5.43

2.6

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

30.15%

28.26%

38.38%

30.95%

Games played

21

21

7

5

 

 

A Sandilands:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

446

411

145

915

Games played

11

10

5

21

Avg

40.55

41.1

29

43.57

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

157

131

46

285

Games played

11

10

5

21

Avg

14.27

13.1

9.2

13.57

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

35.20%

31.87%

31.72%

31.15%

Games played

11

10

5

21

 

C Sinclair:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

634

325

221

327

Games played

22

17

16

17

Avg

28.82

19.12

13.81

19.24

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

157

93

54

84

Games played

22

17

16

17

Avg

7.14

5.47

3.38

4.94

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

24.76%

28.62%

24.43%

25.69%

Games played

22

17

16

17

 

 

T Bellchambers:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

656

416

0

247

Games played

20

13

0

10

Avg

32.8

32

0

24.7

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

240

144

0

75

Games played

20

13

0

10

Avg

12

11.08

0

7.5

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

36.59%

34.62%

0

30.36%

Games played

20

13

0

10

 

P Ryder:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

489

777

0

412

Games played

16

21

0

18

Avg

30.56

37

0

22.89

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

167

243

0

117

Games played

16

21

0

18

Avg

10.44

11.57

0

6.5

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

34.15%

31.27%

0

28.40

Games played

16

21

0

18

 

 

T Hickey:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

316

138

574

100

Games played

13

5

20

11

Avg

24.31

27.6

28.7

9.09

 

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

108

38

172

32

Games played

13

5

20

11

Avg

8.31

7.6

8.6

2.91

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

34.18%

27.54%

29.97%

32%

Games played

13

5

20

11

 

R Stanley:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

423

193

262

123

Games played

15

11

19

8

Avg

28.2

17.55

13.79

15.38

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

111

52

84

40

Games played

15

11

19

8

Avg

7.4

4.73

4.42

5

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

26.24%

26.94%

32.06%

32.52%

Games played

15

11

19

8

 

J Witts:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

854

682

31

245

Games played

22

18

2

11

Avg

38.82

37.89

15.5

22.27

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

211

209

7

67

Games played

22

18

2

11

Avg

9.59

11.61

3.5

6.09

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

24.71%

30.65%

22.58%

27.35%

Games played

22

18

2

11

 

D Simpson:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

268

77

0

78

Games played

9

2

0

4

Avg

29.78

38.5

0

19.5

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

106

26

0

19

Games played

9

2

0

4

Avg

11.78

13

0

4.75

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

39.55%

33.77%

0

24.36%

Games played

9

2

0

4

 

 

S Jacobs:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

798

882

630

779

Games played

22

22

20

21

Avg

36.27

40.09

31.5

37.10

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

235

254

175

264

Games played

22

22

20

21

Avg

10.68

11.55

8.75

12.57

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

29.45%

28.80%

27.78%

33.89%

Games played

22

22

20

21

 

S Lycett:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

453

18

380

98

Games played

22

1

20

6

Avg

20.59

18

19

16.33

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

109

7

98

23

Games played

22

1

20

6

Avg

4.95

7

4.9

3.83

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

24.06%

38.89%

25.79%

23.47%

Games played

22

1

20

6

 

 

M Kreuzer:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

276

665

429

276

Games played

12

21

21

13

Avg

23

31.67

20.43

21.23

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

67

189

113

74

Games played

12

21

21

13

Avg

5.58

9

5.38

5.69

 

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

24.2%

28.42%

26.34%

26.81%

Games played

12

21

21

13

 

S Darcy:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

233

272

0

0

Games played

7

8

0

0

Avg

33.29

34

0

0

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

65

66

0

0

Games played

7

8

0

0

Avg

9.29

8.25

0

0

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

27.90%

24.26%

0

0

Games played

7

8

0

0

 

B Longer:

Hitouts per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

121

656

0

525

Games played

5

17

0

18

Avg

24.2

38.59

0

29.17

 

HTA per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

Total

37

185

0

140

Games played

5

17

0

18

Avg

7.4

10.88

0

7.78

 

HTA Rate per year since 2015:

 

2018

2017

2016

2015

HTA%

30.58%

28.20%

0

26.67%

Games played

5

17

0

18

 

All of the above stats can be found at the AFL Stats Pro section of the AFL Website.

 

 

Ideally the worthwhile supercoach ruck selections usually average around the 100-115+ range which is normally attributed to recording an HTA rate greater than 30% as well as averaging around 32+ hitouts per game. B Grundy, M Gawn, S Martin, T Goldstein, A Sandilands and T Bellchambers all achieved this classification in 2018.

A Sandilands and T Bellchambers can be removed as options due to their durability concerns as Sandi has only recorded 2 seasons from 2010-2018 with 20+ games and Bellchambers recorded his first season playing more than 20+ games last year which was his 10th season in the AFL.

This narrows the field down to B Grundy, M Gawn, S Martin, T Goldstein who are the most relevant ruck options as they have all averaged over 110 before and have the potential to do so again if they maintain or improve their ruck work from 2018. Also maintaining or improving their work around the ground regarding disposals, marks, intercept possessions, contested possessions, etc is essential as the quartet are usually the most influential rucks in the competition outside of the ruck contests.

 

Regarding potential breakout candidates or value selections T Nankervis and S Darcy are the prime candidates due to both doing sufficient work around the ground as well as achieving 1 of the aforementioned hitouts benchmarks (Nankervis=30+ HTA%, Darcy=32+ Hitouts).

For Nankervis to reach the top echelon he needs to increase his hitouts per game average significantly as he recorded a measly hitouts average just below 25 which could be attributed to Richmond’s game style which isn’t conducive as well as his height (199cm) which could be a contributing factor. If he manages to improve in those areas whilst maintaining work around the ground, then he could reach a 105-110+ average.

In regards to S Darcy if he receives a consistent run as the no 1 ruck at Fremantle then he could be an enticing alternative and should comfortably outperform rucks around the same price range (eg B Longer, T English, N Vardy, etc).

 

Therefore, when selecting your rucks, it is essential that their game style benefits the supercoach scoring system whilst ideally boasting a Hitouts to Advantage rate exceeding 30% as well as averaging 32+ hitouts per game.

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9 thoughts on “HitOuts To Advantage”

  1. Great analysis Adam
    Considering Jacobs as he had niggling injury concerns last year.
    Flying preseason and with Adelaide midfielders back he could massively improve and also be a trade up option to Gawn or Grundy who will struggle to maintain last years scoring.
    Gawn with addition of Preus and Grundy interrupted preseason .

    6

    0
    1. I started with Jacobs last season and it almost single-handedly ruined my season.
      He was only relevant when each hitout was +1 SC point, since the rules have been changed so that only HTA score points, his scoring has dropped way off.
      He also doesn’t do enough around the ground to make up those points. Grundy and Stef almost play as midfielders, while Gawn can play forward or back and takes big marks.

      5

      0
      1. Thanks bAps
        Good feedback
        Cheaper than last year and new 6-6-6 set up and taking ball out of ruck should suit.Wont be premium ruck but Grundy and Gawn priced accordingly and will they back up again.
        Depending on rookies playing along different lines will also determine
        my final ruck set up.

        4

        0
        1. Jacobs has only recorded 17 matches equalling or exceeding 100 over his past 64 matches (3 seasons). In 2018 Jacobs recorded less than 12 disposals (only the 2nd time since 2011), 2.5 marks (lowest in his career and only 2nd time below 3 in the past decade).

          By all reports the heir apparent at the Crows R O’Brien has had a great pre season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Crows start to give him some matches in 2019 and begin to phase out the Sauce.

          6

          0
  2. That is a massive amount of work, Adam. Fantastic!

    I am still considering Preuss for R2 at just above the rookie price given he would only need to score 70ppg to be worthwhile.

    4

    0
    1. Will be very intriguing to see how Melbourne manage and utilise their ruck combination of M Gawn and B Preuss throughout 2019. A favourable opening ruck draw could mean that B Preuss plays early in the season allowing M Gawn to rest either up forward/down back or manage his TOG and then revert back to M Gawn playing as the sole ruck around the byes for the latter half of the season.

      Perplexing that B Preuss and his management were vocal about their intentions to move to a club as a No1 ruck yet they decided to move from North Melbourne with an ageing Goldstein to Melbourne which boasts the best tap ruckman in the league who is 3 years younger than Goldy.

      4

      0

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