Team: St Kilda
Supercoach Price: $538,100
2016 Average: 98.91
2016 Games: 22
Bye Round: 11
Past (2015-2012): 111, 89, 115, 99, 101, 115, 125
Draw: Mel (ES), WC (DS), Bri (ES), Col (ES), Gee (ES), Haw (US), GWS (ES), Car (ES), Syd (ES), WB (ES), Bye, Ade (AO), NM (ES), GC (ES), Fre (DS), Ric (ES), Ess (ES), Syd (SCG), Por (AO), WC (ES), Mel (MCG), NM (ES), Ric (MCG)
In the last 5 years (pretty much since he turned 30) Joey has averaged 20.4 matches per year. So what was that rule about not picking players in their 30s?
2016 Form: ****
Look, whether you like Montagna or not, you have to admit that he has as many ups-and-downs as a one-legged jack-rabbit. In the last 10 years his average has fluctuated by as many as 22 points from one year to the next.
2016 appeared to be one of the ‘down’ years but he still averaged 99 SC points and 27 possessions per game, down from 29 in 2015, and he also recorded less contested ball and less tackles (3 tackles per match, his lowest since 2008).
Joey fluctuates almost as much in a season as he does from year to year. In 2016 his best score was 105 points higher than his worst, so Mr Consistent he is not. In total he managed 11 scores of 100+ and 8 scores of less than 80,with a low of 45 (the week I traded him in, I believe!).
Once upon a time, Montagna pumped out monster scores regularly but he has dropped off a little with less time spent on-ball. Still, even with 2016 being a bit of a down year he scored 150 off of a 40 touch effort against the Pies in Round 3 and he also crossed 130 twice.
When you cop the lows, you might as well enjoy the highs as well!
It seems unlikely that Montagna will receive undue attention with the rising of midfield stars like Steven and Ross. You would assume that he might have been tagged with some of his poor scores in 2016 but he just didn’t turn up some weeks!
It’s hard to judge his value. Montagna once averaged 125 in a season (2009) but he won’t do that again while playing in these forward or defensive roles.
So what can he average?
Since he’s twice averaged 110+ in the last 4 years, it seems likely that Joey can comfortably average between 100 and 110 again. Let’s say there’s 5-10 points of upside and cross our fingers.
He has poor consistency and limited upside but otherwise Montagna rates pretty well as a pure defender.
Without checking the stats, I assumed that playing 8 games before the bye at Etihad Stadium would help Montagna but he only averaged 90.5 points from 14 matches there in 2016. It was at the MCG that he excelled with 133 points from 3 games, but unfortunately the Saints don’t play there until Round 21.
So while it’s likely Montagna will be a top 6 defender, his inconsistent scoring means you can afford to wait until his mid-year bye.
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom