Dustin MARTIN (MID/FWD, $543,000, 100.0, 20, BE:100)
Dusty won everything back in 2017. He just won another Premiership and a second Norm Smith medal in 2019. He has regained FWD status in 2020 for the first time in a number of years and is currently the third-highest picked FWD at 57.6% in SuperCoach 2020 (behind only Whitfield and Rankine). As one of the best players in the competition and a dearth of FWD premo picks to choose from this year, you’d probably think I’d be mad not to start him in 2020? Add to that, I’m almost 100% certain he’ll be a Top6 FWD in 2020. So what gives?
Now would be a good time to read the previous post on Elite Analysis if you haven’t already 😉
First let’s take a look at his SC career to date.
Looking at the average trend, I think it is reasonable to say that 2017 was an outlier. Dusty will be 29 this year and that for me is an early warning sign for a player who has only once averaged over 109. The above curve has me believing he is more likely to dip in 2020 than improve. He is also spending more time FWD as he ages (his change in positional status this year is testament to that).
The other key factor for me to consider not starting Dusty, is that he has been a slow-starter and strong finisher in SC for many years now. As are the Tigers to be honest. No doubt starting him is OK; he’ll almost certainly be top6 FWD come season’s end, but there might be value in waiting for the inevitable early drop in price, picking him up cheaper and for a better ave. when things start to warm up.
The chart above shows how this manifests itself. The graph line shows his averages over the course of a season from Rd1-23, over the last five years (on average). Dusty tends to dip reaching a low point from anywhere between Rds4-8 with another latter dip before he ramps up for finals in his usual impressive manner. As FD rightly pointed out in his earlier piece on Luck, Skill & Circumstance – 2020, the Tigers tend to just keep Dusty ticking over early in the season until things matter (winning games and gaining the double-chance) and as finals approach.
I was hoping that the above chart would be more compelling, so instead, let’s have a look at the last five years in more detail and what not starting him would have afforded any SuperCoach with a shrewd knack for those ‘Fallen Premiums’.
Taking last year as an example, you could have saved yourself $75k, avoided his early 90.9 average and picked up a player who would average 104.9 for the remainder of the season, for just $488.8k.. 2016 and 2017 were startling in their differentials; the average across all five seasons is 98.3 early season ave. and 112.7 for the latter two thirds; a 14.4pt difference!
I’ve talked a lot about ‘underpriced’ players already in this pre-season and for me the FWD line is stacked with options right now. Of course those numbers will likely dwindle as we learn more and get toward the start of the season proper (eg injuries, specific role doesn’t come to fruition etc.), but I would rather spend the $543k on ensuring I have the best (better-scoring) Premos on other lines and spend the remainder in my FWD line on players that are 90% certain to score well AND make quick cash so I’m ready to pick up a cheap Dusty when it eventuates.
The main criticism I got when I posted an abbreviated version of this on Twitter was that I’d be forgoing premo FWD-line pts with no clear alternative to provide them. I understand the argument, but if I’m paying less $/pt on other premos (on other lines) and stacking my FWD line with ‘underpriced’ players I MUST come out on top, unless he averages closer to 110 in 2020. Of course there is an element of risk, and he may well pump out a 130 under the lights at a packed MCG in Rd1. Even so, I’m taking a calculated risk on a five-year trend to continue and his current age to be the start of his inevitable SC decline; it looks like it may have already begun!
I think I know what the overwhelming response is gonna be but,
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom