While not technically a Prodigal Son, he did miss a big pile of last season and is at a price that cries out for some numbers…….so by request (since it was a good idea), I’ve done up Aaron Sandilands as a Prodigal-ish Son.
His Sordid past: When uninjured, he is top Ruckman, regularly averaging over 105. His 2016 average was messed up by his injury and recovery.
Why he left home: Suffered a broken rib and collapsed lung after being kneed in the back while playing the Eagles Round 3 last season. He did play again after a break as you can see above.
Upon his return: He’s now 34, is listed as a Ruck for the Dockers, and is priced at $308,200. That’s means he is priced to average 56.65. He had a calf strain that held him out of the first match of the JLT but he played in the second and third.
He returned as: He’s a fallen premium.
From him we expect: I’m expecting 100+, probably not more than 110, although he can certainly go bigger in individual matches.
His Risk Rating*: His game time is certain as long as he is healthy. It isn’t like the Dockers don’t need him rucking every match. His injuries weren’t to his knees or legs, although he did have that calf strain pre-season. He played 21 matches in both 2014 and 2015 before taking that big hit, but has issues for a few seasons before that. I’m thinking a 2 for probability but a 4 for severity, for an 8 game time risk. If you are hoping for an average of 100 well, pretty safe would be a 2 and 1. So a 2 there, for a total risk rating of 9.
For that risk, the reward: He is pretty much certain to rise in price if he plays. He only played two of five matches (without the effects of injury) last season; his first and last games, and tonned up both times! Below are some projected prices changes.
Compared to a cow costing $117,300
He is odd, in that, it would be nice if he played 20-22 games and averaged 105. Beyond nice really, the big hope is that he plays long enough before he gets hurt that he can be swapped for a ‘set and forget’ ruck with little or no extra cash. If there were a pair of ‘set and forget’ rucks available then he would be less appealing. But there isn’t even one anymore! Maybe by the time he gets hurt (which hopefully will be never) we’ll know who we want to replace him with.
How welcome is he? He has the potential to be a season keeper for $308,200. If he isn’t one, it will very likely be due to injury rather than low scoring, not a result of injury. If he makes it even close to the byes, odds are he’s made good $$ if he needs to be replaced. Given what else is available in the rucks, I think he’s a really good choice.
*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.
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