His Sordid past: Before the incident, he was showing good progress towards being a real premium.
Why he left home: One of many Bombers to be grounded for a year.
Upon his return: He’s now 26, is listed as a defender for the Bombers, and is priced at $464,200. That means he is priced to average 85.3. He played 3 matches in the pre-season.
He returned as: He’s somewhere between a breakout candidate and a fallen premium. His last season he averaged 94.8, which puts him near premium for a defender, but he only managed that once.
From him we expect: Some rust that needs to be shaken off. As far as his average, I can imagine anything from 80 to 100. I feel like low 90s is most likely.
His Risk Rating*: Well, his game time looks certain as long as he is healthy. He has no extra risk from game time. If you plan on his averaging 88 you are pretty safe which would be a 1 and 1, maybe a 2 and 1. If you want higher the risk is higher. His total risk rating is 1 to 6 really, as long as you don’t expect premium output. And yes, that is about what I said for Heppell, since they are both in very much the same place expectations-wise.
For that risk, the reward: He is underpriced. Some tables below.
He has virtually no chance of making significant money. The only reason to start with him is that you plan to keep him.
How welcome is he? If you love the Bombers and really want a player you can pick so you have one Essendon player on your supercoach team, Hurley is a decent choice. If you think he can go at 95 again he’s at a discount. Maybe you are just a little bit short of affording Zac Williams and want another defender who you have a decent shot at keeping for the season. We just don’t know how badly players are going to be affected by the year off. If I knew he would keep his 2015 average I’d be tempted by him. As it is, I am going to take my risks elsewhere, but I don’t think he is a bad option.
*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.
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