Punters Club Group Bet

Written by Motts on November 1 2015

The Punters Club has $108 to spend on a Group Bet and after we turned $60 into $206 on last year’s Melbourne Cup we’re going to give it another crack this year.

Below you’ll find the field for the Cup with barriers and fixed odds that were correct as of Sunday morning. The weather for Tuesday is forecast to be partly cloudy and 20 degrees.

You’ve got 3 votes and from that I’ll use my PC Administrator’s discretion to put together a triffy which will be published on the site on Tuesday morning.

Go!

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51 thoughts on “Punters Club Group Bet”

  1. Thought this was excellent:

    After the great success of last year, with Protectionist winning comfortably and we also where we picked the 9 of the top 10 , we will have another crack. We are now picked the winner 4 out of the past 5 years!!!!!!!

    This is an awesome Melbourne Cup much deeper than last year especially with the Japanese horses back they look ominous. They produce outsanding stayers.

    A few pointers to guide you to avoid throwing away your hard earned coin!

    Weight:

    The Melbourne Cup is now probably one of the most recognised races in the world but it is unique in that is a handicap so the best horses are weighted more than inferior horses and weight is a killer for horses so often it is not necessarily the best horse that wins but the best weighted horse that wins, Interesting there are no handicap Group 1 races in Europe.The handicapper is trying to produce a field where all horses go over the line at the same time, so the trick is to beat the handicapper!

    Seventeen of the last 21 Melb Cup winners have carried 55.5kgs or less including the last 7! Only 3 horses have carried more than 58kgs to win. Fame Game the short priced favourite will have to buck the trend carrying 57kgs and hence why his jockey tried everything in his power NOT to win the Caulfield Cup to avoid a weight penalty (allegedly of course, but he was questioned at length by the Stewards as to his ” lack of Vigour” in riding the horse!!

    Form:
    Most Melb Cup winners are coming off a win or an eye-catching close up performance. Only Green Moon, Viewed and Efficient have bucked this trend in the past 22 years. This year has been incredible depth of form in lead up races. For example, in the Caulfield Cup you had outstanding runs by Trip to Paris, Fame Game was eye catching, Grand Marshall was good as was Snow Sky. Other lead up form was the Cox Plate won in record time with Criterion running a galant second. Also look at the Turnball Stakes by Preferment.

    Markets:

    Horses must be respected in the Market. In the past 35 years there have only been 2 winners that have started longer that $21. The market is a great guide so follow it. Long shots don’t win Melbourne Cups any more the class is now too high. Look for late money on the TAB if there is any market moves especially if we have a change in track conditions due to rain.

    International Horses:

    International Horses Must have had a start in Australia. Since 1993 there have been 78 overseas entrants start in the Cup without a prior run in Australia for zero wins. An International horse will most likely win but must have started in Australia before,

    Weather:
    The weather will also be important, the European horses generally don’t like our firmer tracks and they jar up and hence don’t like to stretch out, so if it stays dry then this will be against many of the European horses if we get a bit of rain then a few of them will start to come in price. So watch for a track upgrade or downgrade during the day if it gets to a good 3 a few will start falling by the wayside. Interestingly Fame Game doesn’t like the wet so if we have a few wet days as predicted he may start to get the shakes in the market.

    Distance:
    Many horses this will be their first go over 2 miles (3200m) so look for horses proven over the distance, there will be a couple who will be calling for a priest half way down the straight. Most of the overseas horses have won over 3000m and will be just warming up. But they race in smaller fields where they have plenty of galloping room and far more polite. Unfortunately the Melbourne Cup can be a rough and tumble affair with lots of interference close checking etc

    WHO CAN’T WIN!

    Sertorius. It is everyone’s dream to have a Melbourne Cup runner and no doubt the connections of this horse will be rightly proud to have a horse run, probably even gone out and bought a nice new frock for the occasion (I am tipping a nice little Carla Zampatti number with matching hand bag and Jimmy Chu shoes but I digress). Alas it will all be in vain as their horse be in a neck and neck race with the ambulance to see who comes last! At least they can wear the dress to Oaks day.

    Quest For More: A well credentialed overseas horse unfortunately had a shocker on the Geelong Cup, can run a trip and drop weight, but like the English Rugby and Cricket World Cup attempts it will end in tears.

    Prince Of Penzance: A district cricketer trying to play test cricket….. not up to it!

    The Offer: Won the Bendigo Cup last week, but I could have placed in that raced (with blinkers on of course to sharpen me up a bit). If Gai wasnt training it, it would be double the odds.

    Hartnell: Won the BMW last year in Sydney, but not a great field, ran 4th in the Sydney cup when he was odds on Favourite, The Sydney Cup I question as a lead up race these days doesn’t really count for much the racing equivalent of drinking light beer and dancing with your sister!

    The International Raiders:
    Big Orange, Max Dynamite, SKY Hunter, KingFisher, Bondi Beach, all have exemplary records overseas but have not raced in Australia previously so history shows they cant win but should include in your trifeccta’s and first four bets.
    The B-Graders: Excess Knowledge, The United States, Gust of Wind, all good wins or ran well recently and come in well at the weights but cant see them winning

    Main Chances:

    Fame Game: Hard to go pass the obvious, world class Japanese Stayer who has had a great lead in run in the Caulfield cup, against him is that favourites rarely win and I don’t like his odds but will be just warming up at the 3000m mark.

    Snow Sky, The forgotten horse in the race given his big weight, has one of the worlds best jockeys go on him one for your mutli’s. Awkward barrier doesn’t help

    Criterion . Arguably Australia’s best horse and was super winning the Caulfield Stakes, ran a gallant second in the Cox Plate after being shunted into the rail by the winner and took a race and track record to beat him. I have a little question mark if he can stay the distance but will look the winner at some stage. Has a great barrier which will allow him to settle in the run which will allow him to conserve energy, very important if their are questions over his ability to run out a strong 3200m

    Trip To Paris: Was huge in the Caulfield Cup, ran second showed a great turn of foot and has won group 1 races over 4000m in Europe, so he will stay like an unwanted Mother-In-Law! Look for him to sprout wings at the clock tower!!!

    Preferment. Duel Derby winner who is flying, smashed them in the Turnball Stakes, then was ok in a great Cox plate when it was a leader biased track. Against him is history only 2 horses in the last 80 odd years have won the Derby then won the Melbourne Cup the next year, Efficient was the last horse to do it in 2007, before that you had to go back to a hack called Phar Lap who did it! He is well weighted at 53.5 kgs and a good barrier he is right in this upto his ears and has Australia’s master trainer Chris Waller looking after him. Loves Flemington where he is 2 from 2.

    Red Cadeaux Is now old enough to vote! What a great horse his form overseas from whence he came is poor but for some reason when he comes to Australia (and Hong Kong) he grows another leg! Surely a 10 yo cant win the Melbourne Cup, but he doesn’t know his age, back against him at your peril. A must for all your exotic bets (trifectas and First Fours) Loves Flemington and has placed three times in this race. Well weighted and good barrier.

    Almoonqith: In the Haynes and Dabernig stable who are flying at the moment. Overseas horse who has settled into Australia, has won upto 2800m in Dubai, was awesome winning the Geelong Cup which has been a great lead up race with winners such as Media Puzzle (2002) and Dunedin (2011), good barrier and good jockey on board Dwayne Dunn, great weight at 53kgs. Only question mark is the quality of Geelong Cup field but like the Mighty Collingwood premiership team of 2010, you can only beat what is front of you!!!

    Our Ivanhowe: Was awesome in the Caulfield Cup, jockey Ben Melham is on fire at the moment, draws the car park (22) so watch out ladies in the Champagne bar) one for the multi’s.

    Who Shot the Barman: Ran third this race last year in once of the fastest Melbourne Cups in history and going just as well this year, loves Flemington, great barrier, great weight. He will emerge around the clock tower.

    Hokko Brave: Was ok in the Caulfield Cup hasn’t won for a long time, but is Japanese (they are far superior stayers than ours) stays all day and might just surprise at odds

    So How to Bet!!!!!

    Have something on Fame Game to win but best you will get is 4-1 so lets play around with some value bets and some multi’s

    Trip to Paris Each way

    Preferment Each way

    Criterion the place
    Almoonqith each way

    Trifecta, have a 10 horse flexi first 4 with the following numbers

    1,2, 3,4,7,8, 9, 10, 15,17

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  2. One of my mates has a friend who is a form expert and he has sent through the following! Thought worthy of a mention on here –

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    It looks like a terrific field of stayers for The Cup this year, and there are more genuine winning chances than usual, also. Should be a cracker. So let’s see if we can find a winner.

    I expect the winner to be one of these horses:

    3. FAME GAME – One of the strongest stayers in the world, and has a devastating final sprint. In a very even field, this Japanese horse stands out as the horse to beat. He is not a good thing like Admire Rakti was last year, but I want to be in his corner.

    8. MAX DYNAMITE- comes to notice after he exploded away from a quality field in England last start (see what I did there?), including Trip To Paris and Big Orange, who both go around in the Cup. If he brings that form to Melbourne he can be winning.

    4.OUR IVANHOWE – great run in the Caulfield Cup, and becomes top pick if the track is wet.

    17. ALMOONQITH – terrific win last start, and coming good at the right time.

    10. TRIP TO PARIS – great second in Caulfield Cup, and stays the trip very strongly.

    2. CRITERION – possibly Australia’s best horse. Very classy horse.

    14. GRAND MARSHAL – possibly the best long shot in the race. Form looks lousy on appear, but he has been having awful luck in running. A sneaky each way chance.

    22. THE UNITED STATES
    20. BONDI BEACH

    There are other chances in the race, but racing is about opinions, and I am going to put my opinion out there and say the horses mentioned above are the ones to go with.

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  3. Fame Game still the one to beat, very glad that Hooter has him for the double! On another tough day of punting, only one that stands out for me is Wawail in the last. Have a great day!!

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  4. Yeah your right a tough day of racing Schwarzy. Not looking so good for Dawnie Perfect as rain is forecast for Wednesday and Oaks Day.
    In the Cup I will back Trip to Paris each way. A sentimental place bet on Red Cadeaux. After getting it last year will have another 7 horse box quinella 2 , 3 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 15 , 17.
    Also will put on Mottsys Group Trifecta bet but probably only half the amount.

    Motts have you emailed or got in contact with a PC punter to bet on the Cup to have a crack with Sodes?

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  5. Just got tipped Bondi Beach by a fella who tipped me Who Shot the Barman last year. Has tipped me Efficient , Americain , Zassman that ran a place at 100-1 one year and another horse that doesnt come to mind that ran a place at 33-1. Also Red Cadeaux when it got beat by a nose. So not a bad track record. Will have to throw that in the quinella as well now.

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  6. My tips for tri:

    Max Dynamite/Kingfisher/Sky Hunter
    Fame Game/Bondi Beach/Our Ivanhoe/Trip to Paris/Criterion
    Hokkie Brave/Preferrment/The Barman/Red Cadeaux/Big Orange/Almoonquith

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  7. Ok here’s what we’re going to do. I’m basing this on the results from the poll, my own judgement and the comments above. Tell me what you think of this:

    1st – Fame Game, Trip To Paris, Max Dynamite, Preferment
    2nd – All 1st horses + Who Shot Thebarman, Red Cadeaux, Almoonqith, Our Ivanhowe, Grand Marshall
    3rd – All 2nd horses + Sky Hunter, Gust of Wind, Criterion, Bondi Beach, Kingfisher, The United States & Hartnell.

    $108 buys 24.11%

    If everyone’s happy I’ll put it on this morning.

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  8. From Mr Part-time tipster: Trip to Paris $50 for win, Who shot the Barman and Bondi Beach $50 for place each.

    I’ll leave the exotics to the pros!

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  9. Here’s sodes’ bets for today:

    R1 – $25 on Misrock @ 3.80
    R2 – $17 on Zarzali @ 2
    R4 – $25 on Good Project @ 3.90

    He’ll be utilising the WH money back if your horse finishes in the Top 3 on Misrock & Good Project (I’d already put a bet on Zarzali). If either manages to come 2nd or 3rd I’ll be putting it into an EW bet on Wawail in R10 as per his instructions.

    Good luck to everyone today!!

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  10. Can’t remember such a blowout, what a shocking result. I’ve backed that nag in lesser races than that for no return, didn’t rate him. Zac Purton still trying to navigate his way through the car park on Fame Game. Could he have gone any wider?

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  11. Not a collect on the cup. However got Prince of Penzance in the $10 sweep at work more than covering bets in the cup.Then at our BBQ today got it again and Lil my partner got the 2nd and 3rd to take the pool in the BBQ sweep. Luck of the draw. Have just had a trifecta in the get out stakes 3 , 4 , 10 ,13 boxed for 100%.

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  12. Sodes returns $34 with Zarzali and $37.50 with Wawail. Total of $71.50. Well done buddy! We’ll bank $21.50 of that and give you $50 to spend on Oaks Day.

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  13. Righto, sodes’ bets today are:
    R2 No 9 Berisha – $25 @ 3.50
    R3 No 9 Harbour Grey – $25 @ 2.80
    If we get 2nd or 3rd in either of these races we’ll be putting the winnings on R7 No 9 Brook Road each way.
    Good luck to us all!

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  14. You are gunning it Sodes. Keep backing up mate with what you are doing.

    Good luck in the Oaks Deano with the 100-1 shot Muzyka that will start about 16-1. Could easily place on its last run getting home over the shorter trip on a slow track.

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  15. So all up sodes collected $112.50. We’ll bank $62.50 of that and give him $50 to play with again. Well done mate! Keep an eye on the promotions with Will Hill, sodes, you’ve been doing exceptionally well with them. Because Davo’s our punter this week, he’ll get first rights to any promotion if there’s any conflict so you might want to wait until I’ve published his bets before sending yours in. Just a thought.

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