Punters Club – Motts

Written by Motts on November 2 2018

Flemington

All bets that pay bonus bets will be reinvested on The Cup.

Early quaddie

2/1/2,10/1,2

$10 buys 250%

Race 2

Maui Girl

$10 @ 21

Race 5

Zousain

$20 @ 4.20

Race 8

Land of Plenty

$20 @ 4.40

Good luck to me!!

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19 thoughts on “Punters Club – Motts”

  1. Hard to see anything beating Verry Elleegant but I’ve been wrong before (and often! ). Reckon there’s a winner or two there. Good luck, Champ!

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  2. Here’s Gator’s mail:

    PLEASE NOTE:
    All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for GOOD track. Rail is back True, was 9m here 6/10 and there was no bias evident and great racing! In straight races the winners were beyond the middle of the track. I will be very surprised if we have any inside bias today!

    BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
    FLEMINGTON – Race 2 No.2 – VERRY ELLEEGANT – Badly blocked here then ran by now G1 winner Amphitrite through line then pulled hard yet still too good in Ethereal from midfield against days pattern, that was her first go 2000m. Serious talent but still learning. Happily on top!

    BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
    ROSEHILL – Race 9 No.8 – FIERCE IMPACT – Made up stack of ground fresh then had sound late splits in fast G1 Toorak last time. Only up 2kg and back to BM88 class. Top pick !

    BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
    FLEMINGTON – Race 1 No.14 – ADANA – Gelded into last start and produced some serious closing speed to score. His last 200m was 11.4 and clearly fastest all day, his final 200m split was some 3L quicker than his 400-to-200m (amazing). He beat one who was heavily backed and form ties in with smart Maid Of Heaven (G1 winner) and Ranier. Should eat 1600m. Looks value $10.

    BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
    FLEMINGTON – Race 4 No.2 – A PRINCE OF ARRAN – Very good Oz debut closing off fast behind Melb Cup fave Yucatan and easily beat Gallic Chieftain (is here, just ran well Caul Cup beating MV cup winner Ventura Storm). He won 2nd-up last prep at home.

    BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
    FLEMINGTON – Race 8 No.16 – PEACEFUL STATE – Top return behind Land Of Plenty powering through line then very wide in Rupert Clarke. Gap between runs and stayed 1400m latest yet ran on Vs pattern and now gets to 1600m with blinkers back on. Is a G1 horse, and a nice price !

    Lay Of The Day:
    ROSEHILL – Race 7 No.3 – NEWSFAN – Good horse but come up $2.6 in decent race, looks unders!

    TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

    FLEMINGTON

    Race 1 – G3 Carbine Club Stks – 3YO SWP – 1600m
    14 – ADANA – Gelded into last start and produced some serious closing speed to score. His last 200m was 11.4 and clearly fastest all day, his final 200m split was some 3L quicker than his 400-to-200m (amazing). He beat one who was heavily backed and form ties in with smart Maid Of Heaven (G1 winner) and Ranier. Should eat 1600m
    11 – SACCHARO – Made good round on subsequent G1 winner Amphitrite here then ran home 11.78 in G1 Caulfield Guineas, it was 3rd-fastest of the race. Back a notch here. Go well.
    2 – VASSILATOR – Much, much better last time with blinkers on to 1600m. He was no match at all for potential star The Autumn Sun but he beat all other males clearly!
    15 – ZOUTORI – Big finish fresh tp beat subsequent winner then ran out of luck late Caulfield behind Ranier and 3rd-up here, 1600m he has the upside over them. Chased Vassilator in May, so that ties in easily.
    5 – RANIER – Moral beaten here then all honours his latest from off-pace (Vs pattern) and was one of only seven horses to break 12-secs home all day.
    6 – WILD PLANET – Wide/ Super that Ranier race and must have case also…. Mile looks ok.

    Race 2 – G2 Wakeful Stks – 3YOF – SWP – 2000m
    2 – VERRY ELLEEGANT – Badly blocked here then ran by now G1 winner Amphitrite through line then pulled hard yet still too good in Ethereal from midfield against days pattern, that was her first go 2000m. Serious talent but still learning. Happily on top!
    1 – EL DORADO DREAMING – Well if you believe in the track bias last week her run was excellent from last coming wide, if you are not, her run was probably still good-to-very good? Did pull-up rain with little throat issue so that has to be a query going into 2000m race but she is class act.
    5 – SIZZLEME – To 2000m last time and took over a long way from home off a fast speed (+13.5L Vs ave early) and she beat 4th, and 5th easily. Thrashed Yulong Meteor three runs back. With softer run up front she is a live (value) chance.
    6 – YULONG METEOR – Ran by Sizzleme then very good here then ridden upside/ down last time and faded. Forgive that, gets another go !
    4 – ARISTIA – Travelled up like winner in Ethereal and beat all-bar Verry Elleegant at her first go 2000m. Was luckless behind her prior here. Must have a case also.
    9 – MAUI GIRL – Jumped in trip start two and was good/ game and Stars Of Carrum franked the form… Has all the upside…

    Race 3 – G2 TAB Stks – 1200m
    1 – OSBORNE BULLS – Came to near outside rail in Everest and made up good ground. Best closing 200m in G1 at 1400m prior. Beat Land Of Plenty before that. Drawn to swoop. Carries weight. Top-rater.
    4 – MISSROCK – Good return from her. Beat all-bar proper G1 horse Santa Ana Lane in G1 Goodwood 2nd-up last prep. Beat all-bar Rich Charm this race last year. Has run well in G1 Lightning Stks up straight. Needs another win is all.
    10 – RUNSON – Chased Eduardo fresh then easy win Cranbourne. To 1200m MV last week and led at strong speed yet raced away smashing track record and running over 3L quicker overall than G1 horses in Manikato Stks. Now, can he repeat that 8-days later ?? Has to go in !!
    9 – HAVASAY – Was about to motor to line in Schillaci when his luck ran out, he should have finished much closer. Yes 1200m. Good 2nd-up horse. Has Spright form and she just ran well in two G1 races MV.
    8 – WINTER BRIDE – Flying and her winning form over I Am Excited (then beat Eduardo) and Booker (has run well in Newmarket Hcp) reads very well.

    Race 4 – G3 Lexus Stks – 2500m
    2 – A PRINCE OF ARRAN – Very good Oz debut closing off fast behind Melb Cup fave Yucatan and easily beat Gallic Chieftain (is here, just ran well Caul Cup beating MV cup winner Ventura Storm). He won 2nd-up last prep at home.
    6 – BRIMHAM ROCKS – Matched motors with A Prince Of Arran to line in that Herbert Power and they had a margin on the rest. Good in G1 Metrop prior. Super genuine and maps well here. Just think A Prince Of Arran has more scope into this race.
    10 – JAAMEH – Split Melb Cup hope Avilius and Yogi/ Northwest Passage in Bart Cummings, the latter then was good 2nd to Runaway in Geelong Cup. Won his previous two here. Strong stayer.
    12 – YOGI – Strong to line in that Bart Cummings then ran on against race-shape Geelong Cup. Back to Flemington!
    8 – RUNAWAY – Was only 3rd-up when led/ won that Geelong Cup and runner-up Northwest Passage easily ties the form in as mentioned. Pattern here? Has form this track.
    7 – GALLIC CHIEFTAIN – Must have a case off Caul Cup run….
    4 – SIXTIES GROOVE – A hope if he stays the 2500m…

    Race 5 – G1 Coolmore Stud Seks – 3YOSW – 1200m
    2 – ZOUSAIN – Split The Autumn Sun (then brilliant G1 winner) and Graff (best run in race in Everest for mine) last start. Jumped out well up straight here and freshened back to 1200m. All dry form is good.
    4 – LEAN MEAN MACHINE – Flew late to nail Graff (so good in Everest) then on wrong leg last time and below his best. Beat Zousian last prep on dry! Overs at $11.
    10 – SUNLIGHT – Luckless in G1 Manikato and should have gone close for mine. Won 7 of her other 8 on dry. Beat Written By when they clashed in Slipper.
    1 – WRITTEN BY – Never been beaten by a male horse. Sole defeat was game 4th in Slipper. Led (-9L Vs ave) and won Blue Sapphire but no knock and looked super up straight here in jump out.
    6 – SESAR – Good horse and flew home to win fresh thrashing last week’s winner Charge by 8L. Has beaten Lean Mean Machine. Was ridden along 600m out fresh so has to be some query staying at 1200m?? Like him but shuffled down to 5th…

    Race 6 – G1 Empire Rose Stks – F&M – WFA – 1600m
    5 – ALOISIA – Nice work late fresh with 59kg then ran home 23.5 last 400m (fastest all day) against on-pace pattern Caulfield when staying at 1400m. Now to Flemington/ 1600m is ideal. Expecting peak run and her peak is proper G1 standard, and some are betting $10. Wide race though…
    15 – AMPHITRITE – Not sure where her ceiling is? She looks better every time we see her and that G1 Thousand Guineas win was brilliant, there is real quality in her closing figures Vs males and older horses on that day.
    3 – SHILLELAGH – Ran fastest closing splits in track record Epsom then followed Land Of Plenty and ran on very well in Toorak, again in fast time. Back to her own sex. She won G1 Vs males this day last year at 1600m.
    13 – OOHOOD – Charged late to win Flight Stks and that’s hot form race (Fundamentalist/ Maid Of Heaven) then ran home hard in G1 Guineas to The Autumn Sun. Her closing speed wasn’t far off Amphitrite’s that day. In the game for sure.
    8 – BRING ME ROSES – Luckless fresh then tight key stage last week on biased track. Back to Flemington a big tick for her… Silly odds??
    2 – INVICIBELLA – Big win here then hung and less effective Caulfield for mine last time. She runs 1600m no worries. Must have case also.

    Race 7 – G1 VRC Derby – 3YO – 2500m
    1 – THINKIN’ BIG – Wide/ Worked early and leaders ran +2.8L Vs class average in Spring Champion. Had it easier last time and raced away running good overall time and closing figures on the day compared to quality older horse Best Of Days. Will stay!
    2 – ARAMAYO – Ran by Thinkin’ Big in that Spring Champion then came wide Vs bias last week and kept closing. Doubt much between them and this guy is double the price.
    7 – SAVOIE – Even allowing for pattern last week his run was super, he took over a long, long way from home and was nailed on wire. Set strong speed prior (ran well). All his form on dry at 1600m+ is very good.
    3 – EXTRA BRUT – Battled a bit last time but tempo/ pattern and likely Soft track no help. Very good win here prior running by Savoie and Co. Gets another go and if not over the top… can win.
    14 – SAVVY OAK – Lost spot a touch MV then made very good ground through field. Nice late her prior in mostly on-pace race. Looks a stayer! Looks overs $21+ ??
    4 – STARS OF CARRUM – Also looks real stayer and wound-up strongly to score MV last week beating Savoie….

    Race 8 – G1 Kennedy Mile – 1600m
    16 – PEACEFUL STATE – Top return behind Land Of Plenty powering through line then very wide in Rupert Clarke. Gap between runs and stayed 1400m latest yet ran on Vs pattern and now gets to 1600m with blinkers back on. Is a G1 horse, and a nice price !
    4 – LAND OF PLENTY – He was huge in that Rupert Clarke even wide run then great ride/ win in Toorak at 1600m when .24 off track record. He was off the map! Only up 2.5kg.
    8 – NOIRE – Think she is flying! Beat Youngstar 2nd-up then in traffic key stage in Toorak yet ran home sweetly and final 200m split was 4/100ths off that of Land Of Plenty whom she now meets 2.5kg better. Over the odds!
    18 – ICONOCLASM – Two terrific wins last two and strong substance to them on the clock. Unbeaten here and drops 7kg. Started fave against Land Of Plenty 2nd-up but had post-race issue. Hmmmm
    7 – MISTER SEA WOLF – Nice to line and not far off Hartnell in record Epsom… Has weight swing… Has a case !
    1 – HARTNELL – Great again latest, this time coming wide with 59kg! Stays up in weights but he is flying in these handicaps…
    6 – DREAMFORCE – Heads stack of other hopes for mine…

    Race 9 – G3 Sprint – Mares – 1100m
    2 – SNITTY KITTY – Wide off strong speed and good fresh. Raced inside leader Vs males last time and doubt that ideal either. Back to own sex. First go straight but draws out a likely plus.
    7 – FROM WITHIN – Set fast speed and kept running Caulfield. That’s four-straight now. Smashed the clock up North prior. First go straight also.
    4 – I AM EXCITED – Godo at Caulfield but doubt she loves the place. Came here and blew away male rivals including smart subsequent winner Eduardo. Wish she drew wider ? Pattern ?? A must !!
    1 – BOOKER – Can forgive fresh run then wide/ good to flying Winter Bride. Can forgive last run 1400m first go wet. Ran quite well in Newmarket Hcp here remember…
    6 – RESIN – Easy win Nivison. Chased Soothing fresh and that ties in with From Within and Co. here.
    9 – SHE KNOWS – Chased Eduardo and ran slick closing splits latest so that works in easily with a few at top of the market… Draws in.

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    1. Love this Motts, thanks for putting it up on the site it is great for people who only have a bet at this time of the year .
      Where did you find it?
      Can anyone get it?
      Will you be putting one up for the Cup Day?

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  3. Yulong Meteor has been backed to 11/1 for the Oaks but is still 18/1 in the Wakeful. Amazing price given she’s getting blinkers on.

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        1. Thanks for this motts. I got on.
          On another note, jagged 5% of the quaddie on Saturday. Awesome return for a $42 outlay!

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            1. It’s certainly been a good one these last two years.
              The blokes in my cricket team thought I’d broken something in the rooms when divine quality got up!

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