Rookie Review – Marsh Series Recap

Written by Chillo on March 10 2020

I’ve tried to remain positive and optimistic throughout this pre-season, and I still have some hope that we’ll be thrown some unexpected rookie lifelines next Thursday night when all the round 1 teams are announced. But there’s simply no denying at this point that this is the leanest year for viable rookies that I’ve experienced since I started playing SuperCoach back in 2014. Not only are we going to have to tread carefully to avoid those “dud rookie” landmines, it may even be necessary to completely revise team structures and reconsider selecting “underpriced players” rather than bonafide uber-premiums.

Anyhow we’re here to discuss those rookies, so let’s get to it! With all 18 teams in action last weekend for their final outing before the real action starts, I thought it might be beneficial to return to our usual format of grouping the freshers by position. Every player priced south of the Rowell Line ($207,300) who played in the Marsh Series appears in the tables below.

The following tables are ordered by the unwieldy acronym $PPPPTOG, which stands for Dollars Per Point Per Percent Time On Ground. This is a measure of a player’s price compared to his scoring output, taking into account his playing time. The lower the number, the more effective a player was in their time on ground relative to their price tag. This is not a perfect measure, since it tends to unfairly favour cheaper players who played low minutes but managed to grab a few cheap possessions. However for players who played a significant amount of game time, particularly if they played both games in the Marsh Series, this is a useful metric for player comparison.
(PS if anyone has a jazzier name than “$PPPPTOG” for that stat, I’m open. Something to do with ninjas and/or pirates would be cool.)

Note that all RUC DPPs are listed as rucks, DEF/FWDs are listed as defenders, and all MID DPPs are listed in their alternative position.

DEFENDERS

NameClubPriceMarsh 1Marsh 2$PPPPTOG
Nathan
MURPHY
COL$123,90058DNP96129
Will
GOULD
SYD$117,30068DNP117300
Mark
KEANE
COL$123,90086DNP123900
Kieren
BRIGGS
GWS$123,90049DNP156771
Jarrod
BRANDER
WCE$133,0004676162434
Brandon
STARCEVICH
BRL$147,7004060177240
Jordon
BUTTS
ADE$123,90055DNP180218
Lachlan
ASH
GWS$193,8008862182172
Trent
BIANCO
COL$117,30014DNP192707
Damon
GREAVES
HAW$123,900623194428
Cian
MCBRIDE
ESS$102,40032DNP195200
Tobe
WATSON
FRE$123,9006242200146
Brandon
Z-THATCHER
ESS$189,00061104202745
Zach
GUTHRIE
GEE$190,1005984218017
Jez
MCLENNAN
GCS$123,9003628226505
Tom
WILLIAMSON
CAR$146,30052DNP233517
Jacob
KENNERLEY
GEE$123,9003411253307
Ben
JARVIS
GEE$123,90026DNP281158
Tom
MURPHY
NTH$152,000DNP28314857
Stephen
HILL
FRE$190,600DNP32333550
Fischer
MCASEY
ADE$184,800DNP47342077

Only nine rookie defenders played in both rounds. Will Gould was our big hope, but he was dropped by Horse despite a solid performance in round 1. Stephen Hill is injured again, and Damon Greaves was benched for most of his second game despite the injuries to key members of the Hawks backline. Injuries to Plowman and Marchbank may give Tom Williamson another opportunity. Better news at the Bombers where B-Zerk went berserk and tonned up against the Cats. It’s generally pretty slim pickings at the back but taking into account scoring power, price and my best guesses at job security, my top 5 at this stage:

1. Brander
2. Zerk-Thatcher
3. Ash
4. Williamson
5. ZGuthrie/Starcevich

MIDFIELDERS

NameClubPriceMarsh 1Marsh 2$PPPPTOG
Jay
RANTALL
COL$117,30034DNP82800
Hamish
BRAYSHAW
WCE$102,40020DNP107520
Deven
ROBERTSON
BRL$117,300DNP64115467
Tom
GREEN
GWS$166,80010672137751
Justin
MCINERNEY
SYD$123,900803138828
Tyler
BROWN
COL$123,9006535138768
Ned
MCHENRY
ADE$123,90037DNP140643
Nick
SHIPLEY
GWS$123,90035DNP141600
Matthew
ROWELL
GCS$207,30010036164621
Marlion
PICKETT
RIC$123,9006161171632
Jeremy
SHARP
GCS$117,3001642173928
Caleb
SERONG
FRE$175,8006016175800
Thomson
DOW
RIC$117,3002021180241
Patrick
WILSON
ADE$190,10059DNP206210
Riley
C-DAWKINS
RIC$123,90030DNP227150
Jye
CALDWELL
GWS$190,10042DNP
267045
Dylan
STEPHENS
SYD$189,3003849298093
Xavier
O'HALLORAN
GWS$123,90025DNP
307272
Xavier
O'NEILL
WCE$123,900DNP6309750
Noah
ANDERSON
GCS$202,8005913326733
Cooper
STEPHENS
GEE$139,80021DNP426057
Sam
PHILP
CAR$121,8007DNP452400
Sam
WICKS
SYD$123,9008DNP495600
Oleg
MARKOV
RIC$184,4000DNPN/A
Chad
WARNER
SYD$117,300-2DNP-2111400

Rowell and Pickett are the easiest selections this year and should be in every team. Tom Green has impressed but is vying with more established players for a midfield spot, while Deven Robertson looked the goods straight away but may struggle to crack the Lions midfield. All the good mid rooks seem to be playing for teams with good midfields!

1. Rowell
2. Pickett
3. Robertson
4. Green
5. Anderson
6. Brown

RUCKS

NameClubPriceMarsh 1Marsh 2$PPPPTOG
Darcy
CAMERON
COL$123,900127DNP73169
Jordon
SWEET
WBD$123,90073DNP120505
Bailey J.
WILLIAMS
WCE$123,90070DNP123900
Tom
DE KONING
CAR$123,9003841134878
Tristan
XERRI
NTH$123,9009837134913
Luke
JACKSON
MEL$198,3002271230284
Callum
C-JONES
RIC$195,5005951239932
Michael
KNOLL
SYD$123,9003DNP908600
Bigoa
NYUON
RIC$117,300DNP21055700

We were hoping Darcy Cameron would win a spot in the Pies forward line. We were disappointed. AGAIN. Xerri has been good for the Roos, but Goldy prefers to ruck alone. Can he win a spot in the forwards with Brown to come back in? The top 3 options:

1. Xerri
2. Cameron
3. Coleman-Jones

FORWARDS

NameClubPriceMarsh 1Marsh 2$PPPPTOG
Toby
BEDFORD
MEL$123,900DNP4392205
Harrison
JONES
ESS$117,30044DNP106636
Curtis
TAYLOR
NTH$123,9003395123900
Connor
BUDARICK
GCS$106,9007437125198
Jake
AARTS
RIC$123,90036DNP130783
Tom
SPARROW
MEL$182,50077DNP142208
Irving
MOSQUITO
ESS$123,90026DNP142962
Bradley
CLOSE
GEE$109,90051DNP150843
Aiden
BONAR
NTH$202,8007614198293
Jack
MAHONY
NTH$117,3003053200682
Ben
DAVIS
ADE$123,9005543202286
Mitchell
GEORGIADES
PTA$130,8003543204585
Ben
CROCKER
ADE$152,0005956207513
Ely
SMITH
BRL$123,90018DNP227150
William
FRAMPTON
PTA$165,40054DNP235848
Cameron
POLSON
CAR$138,500515244848
Kysaiah
K-PICKETT
MEL$157,80043DNP256884
Max
KING
STK$123,9004429257984
Tyson
STENGLE
ADE$202,0006155268172
Hugh
DIXON
FRE$1711003512269391
Sam
STURT
FRE$123,9003929278775
Anthony
TREACY
WCE$112,90026DNP295277
Ryan
GARDINER
WBD$136,80043DNP295870
Minairo
FREDERICK
FRE$117,30011DNP319909
Tobin
COX
PTA$123,90024DNP320075
Connor
BALLENDEN
BRL$123,90018DNP357933
Shane
MCADAM
ADE$123,90023DNP360926
Mathew
WALKER
HAW$123,9005DNP867300
Connor
MCFADYEN
BRL$123,9003DNP867300
Atu
BOSENVULAGI
COL$123,9003DNP2560600

The rookie shortage is best summed up by the fact that Pies discard Ben Crocker is one of the highest scoring rookies in the Marsh Series this year. Connor Budarick looks very sound but saw limited game time in round 2. Mitch Georgiades showed some good signs but looks destined to start his career in the SANFL. Best job security award goes to Max King, but it’s entirely possible he won’t make it to $200K this season! Fortunately Curtis Taylor redeemed the forwards with an outstanding display against the Swans.

1. Budarick
2. Taylor
3. King
4. Crocker
5. Mahony/Rankine

Allsaints will be bringing you all the detailed stats from round 2 of the Marsh Series, starting here and continuing throughout the week. I’ll be back next week with a detailed preview of all our rookie options once the round 1 teams have dropped, as well as weekly reviews of all rookie performances each round throughout the season. 

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23 thoughts on “Rookie Review – Marsh Series Recap”

  1. Have you been up all night? How the hell did you get that completed so quickly?

    Fantastic effort mate, but it certainly makes for some grim reading/slim pickings doesn’t it?

    Am hoping Horse felt Gould had already done enough for a Rd1 spot but that is probably just false hope. Tom Sparrow was impressive in Game1 for MEL and may get an opportunity if vandenBerg can’t be put back together again 🙁

    There are rookies like Mead, BJ Williams and McHenry (and others) who have had minor setbacks but may still feature very early. Don’t LIKE to do it, but may even have to start one or two of these as bench filler in the hope they put their hands up early, if only to save early trades and get a semi-decent onfield team ready for Rd1. Still have so many questions with Rd1 not far away and no more games to watch. It’s gonna be very hard but I reckon it makes for the most exciting SuperCoach season in memory. Remember, we’re all in the same boat!

    Thanks again Chillo. Outstanding effort!

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    1. Yesterday was a public holiday so I had some spare time to work on it. What, they don’t have Canberra Day where you are? 😉

      I read somewhere that Williams had a good training session on the weekend, so I guess it was only a very minor hammy twinge. Hopefully he makes the 22. Mead and McHenry might take a bit longer but they would be nice downgrade options later on.

      There’s going to be a lot of uncertainty throughout the entire season (and not all of it rookie-related either, unfortunately). Whoever can dodge the most landmines is going to come out on top.

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  2. I agree with your ranking of Robertson in the midfield but that says it all really.
    The rookie with the third best job security in the midfield has bugger all job security.

    My bigger worry is are we going to be in a rookie drought all season?
    Are we better to play the key forward stock market to generate cash during the season

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  3. Lots of coffee last night Chillo ??? Great work. I’m not as pessimistic as most, but I have sacrificed one uber for McGrath to allow a broader range of selection options among the rooks. We are spoilt this year in that there seems a good sprinkling of under pricers like Smith, Roberton Doch, to spread the vegemite a bit further. Budarick now looks likely to take my last f/m spot and I’m hoping B Williams gets a run as d8 and ruck cover.
    Gonna be a long 9 days !!

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  4. Great stuff Chillo.

    As of last night I’ve gone full midprice madness (plenty of 200-250k picks). In fact, its increasingly looking like guns’n’rookies is the madness strategy this year.

    Hard to have confidence in starting many rookies on field.

    I think it’s great though, really mixes things up and reduces the likelihood of everyone’s teams being the same

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  5. Great stuff, this is exactly the kind of data I was hoping to see (didn’t expect it so early!)

    Agree with most of your rookie rankings….Although I do believe De Koning could have been higher and I also think Sharp might surprise a few. I think it’s out of him or Anderson for a spot on Suns 22 and he was very good in a half of footy on the weekend.
    Good luck all

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  6. Cheers Chillo. Didn’t catch much of the Marsh series so this is helpful.

    Week 1: “We are in never before seen ruck territory. I have 4 rookie rucks in my team”
    Week 2: “Yeh, so about that floating donut.

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  7. What do we think of gaff & cogs M4 & M5?
    Gaff looked terrific in SOO & Marsh series.. Tim kelly will definitely help…
    cogs just presents value and may very well finish top 10 at worst M8

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    1. Exactly same dilemma – need to downgrade an uber to sure up other lines, and deciding on Gaff v Cogs. Leaving towards Gaff (more likely to play more games). It may come down to whether I need a little more $’s, then its Cogs

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    2. I reckon Gaff and Coniglio average very similar. Difference being that Cogs will be up and down, whereas Gaff should get you a solid 105-115 each week IMO with low standard deviation. Both solidish picks I guess in terms of a little but of value, doubtful that either crack the top 8 mids though…

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  8. Great article. Im really struggling with rookies this year as everyone is.

    Might take him a few weeks to get in the team however Damon Greeves will get plenty of game time as they need a smaller type to replace Hardiwick

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  9. Have lined up something I hope will serve well if the rookie stocks are as thin as expected.

    Hurn, Doc, Roberton, Noble, Ash, B-Zerk (Williamson, Williams)
    – Like Hurn as a POD, particularly early.
    – Doc working into it , but he’s fit and won’t take long to get his touch back.
    – Roberton looks too good to miss at that price.
    – Noble seems as good a choice at this price, provided he’s named.
    – Ash and Zerk look like they’ll be given opportunity early.
    – Think Williamson and Williams will feature sooner rather than later, could change pending teams.

    Macrae, Neale, Cripps, Dunkley, Oliver, Dev Smith, Rowell, Pickett (Starc, McHenry, Budarick)
    – Those 5 premos have been set in stone for weeks, nothing has changed.
    – Smith is here for now, but can easily be swung forward pending rookie selection.
    – Rowell and Pickett pick themselves.
    – Starc looked good enough on the weekend, McHenry and Budarick hopefully get named. Have enough money on the bench to shuffle around names if necessary.

    Gawn, Jacobs (Xerri)
    – Gawn vs. Grundy will go down to the wire. Gawn with the injury issues, but seems OK now…something looks off with Grundy.
    – Sneaking suspicion Xerri might get games along the way.

    Whitfield, Martin, Petracca, Steven, Brander, Taylor (Cameron, Rankine)
    – Whitfield and Martin by a mile, can’t go without.
    – Petracca feels right this year.
    – Steven looks like he’s playing with real intent. He’s not 100% fit, but I think he’s good for 90+.
    – Brander plays early, fingers crossed for Taylor and Cameron, Rankine plays if fit.

    Only 6 rookies on-field, and at this stage that’s just Rowell (elite,ready, rebuilding side), Pickett (mature, ready), Ash (talented as hell), Zerk (fills a structural need for Essendon), Brander (talented, fills a structural need) and Taylor/Rankine (talented in rebuilding sides).

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  10. Such a valuable resource. Thank you!

    Any thoughts on which GWS youngster has better JS?

    TU: Ash
    TD: Green

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  11. Oh sweet monkey Jesus we’re screwed. The cowpocalypse is well and truly upon us.

    On a happier note, great work in getting this up, Chillo. Since you asked if we had a catchier name for ‘$PPPPTOG’, I would normally suggest something like ‘value’, but, as you want something pirate or ninja-related, how about ‘Ninjabucks’?

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  12. Move the price point to 250k and call them wookies and the availability of good points scores that are likely to play is sensational.
    Coleman Jones for 190k or Naismith for a few $more

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