I’ve tried to remain positive and optimistic throughout this pre-season, and I still have some hope that we’ll be thrown some unexpected rookie lifelines next Thursday night when all the round 1 teams are announced. But there’s simply no denying at this point that this is the leanest year for viable rookies that I’ve experienced since I started playing SuperCoach back in 2014. Not only are we going to have to tread carefully to avoid those “dud rookie” landmines, it may even be necessary to completely revise team structures and reconsider selecting “underpriced players” rather than bonafide uber-premiums.
Anyhow we’re here to discuss those rookies, so let’s get to it! With all 18 teams in action last weekend for their final outing before the real action starts, I thought it might be beneficial to return to our usual format of grouping the freshers by position. Every player priced south of the Rowell Line ($207,300) who played in the Marsh Series appears in the tables below.
The following tables are ordered by the unwieldy acronym $PPPPTOG, which stands for Dollars Per Point Per Percent Time On Ground. This is a measure of a player’s price compared to his scoring output, taking into account his playing time. The lower the number, the more effective a player was in their time on ground relative to their price tag. This is not a perfect measure, since it tends to unfairly favour cheaper players who played low minutes but managed to grab a few cheap possessions. However for players who played a significant amount of game time, particularly if they played both games in the Marsh Series, this is a useful metric for player comparison.
(PS if anyone has a jazzier name than “$PPPPTOG” for that stat, I’m open. Something to do with ninjas and/or pirates would be cool.)
Note that all RUC DPPs are listed as rucks, DEF/FWDs are listed as defenders, and all MID DPPs are listed in their alternative position.
DEFENDERS
Name | Club | Price | Marsh 1 | Marsh 2 | $PPPPTOG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nathan MURPHY | COL | $123,900 | 58 | DNP | 96129 |
Will GOULD | SYD | $117,300 | 68 | DNP | 117300 |
Mark KEANE | COL | $123,900 | 86 | DNP | 123900 |
Kieren BRIGGS | GWS | $123,900 | 49 | DNP | 156771 |
Jarrod BRANDER | WCE | $133,000 | 46 | 76 | 162434 |
Brandon STARCEVICH | BRL | $147,700 | 40 | 60 | 177240 |
Jordon BUTTS | ADE | $123,900 | 55 | DNP | 180218 |
Lachlan ASH | GWS | $193,800 | 88 | 62 | 182172 |
Trent BIANCO | COL | $117,300 | 14 | DNP | 192707 |
Damon GREAVES | HAW | $123,900 | 62 | 3 | 194428 |
Cian MCBRIDE | ESS | $102,400 | 32 | DNP | 195200 |
Tobe WATSON | FRE | $123,900 | 62 | 42 | 200146 |
Brandon Z-THATCHER | ESS | $189,000 | 61 | 104 | 202745 |
Zach GUTHRIE | GEE | $190,100 | 59 | 84 | 218017 |
Jez MCLENNAN | GCS | $123,900 | 36 | 28 | 226505 |
Tom WILLIAMSON | CAR | $146,300 | 52 | DNP | 233517 |
Jacob KENNERLEY | GEE | $123,900 | 34 | 11 | 253307 |
Ben JARVIS | GEE | $123,900 | 26 | DNP | 281158 |
Tom MURPHY | NTH | $152,000 | DNP | 28 | 314857 |
Stephen HILL | FRE | $190,600 | DNP | 32 | 333550 |
Fischer MCASEY | ADE | $184,800 | DNP | 47 | 342077 |
Only nine rookie defenders played in both rounds. Will Gould was our big hope, but he was dropped by Horse despite a solid performance in round 1. Stephen Hill is injured again, and Damon Greaves was benched for most of his second game despite the injuries to key members of the Hawks backline. Injuries to Plowman and Marchbank may give Tom Williamson another opportunity. Better news at the Bombers where B-Zerk went berserk and tonned up against the Cats. It’s generally pretty slim pickings at the back but taking into account scoring power, price and my best guesses at job security, my top 5 at this stage:
1. Brander
2. Zerk-Thatcher
3. Ash
4. Williamson
5. ZGuthrie/Starcevich
MIDFIELDERS
Name | Club | Price | Marsh 1 | Marsh 2 | $PPPPTOG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jay RANTALL | COL | $117,300 | 34 | DNP | 82800 |
Hamish BRAYSHAW | WCE | $102,400 | 20 | DNP | 107520 |
Deven ROBERTSON | BRL | $117,300 | DNP | 64 | 115467 |
Tom GREEN | GWS | $166,800 | 106 | 72 | 137751 |
Justin MCINERNEY | SYD | $123,900 | 80 | 3 | 138828 |
Tyler BROWN | COL | $123,900 | 65 | 35 | 138768 |
Ned MCHENRY | ADE | $123,900 | 37 | DNP | 140643 |
Nick SHIPLEY | GWS | $123,900 | 35 | DNP | 141600 |
Matthew ROWELL | GCS | $207,300 | 100 | 36 | 164621 |
Marlion PICKETT | RIC | $123,900 | 61 | 61 | 171632 |
Jeremy SHARP | GCS | $117,300 | 16 | 42 | 173928 |
Caleb SERONG | FRE | $175,800 | 60 | 16 | 175800 |
Thomson DOW | RIC | $117,300 | 20 | 21 | 180241 |
Patrick WILSON | ADE | $190,100 | 59 | DNP | 206210 |
Riley C-DAWKINS | RIC | $123,900 | 30 | DNP | 227150 |
Jye CALDWELL | GWS | $190,100 | 42 | DNP | 267045 |
Dylan STEPHENS | SYD | $189,300 | 38 | 49 | 298093 |
Xavier O'HALLORAN | GWS | $123,900 | 25 | DNP | 307272 |
Xavier O'NEILL | WCE | $123,900 | DNP | 6 | 309750 |
Noah ANDERSON | GCS | $202,800 | 59 | 13 | 326733 |
Cooper STEPHENS | GEE | $139,800 | 21 | DNP | 426057 |
Sam PHILP | CAR | $121,800 | 7 | DNP | 452400 |
Sam WICKS | SYD | $123,900 | 8 | DNP | 495600 |
Oleg MARKOV | RIC | $184,400 | 0 | DNP | N/A |
Chad WARNER | SYD | $117,300 | -2 | DNP | -2111400 |
Rowell and Pickett are the easiest selections this year and should be in every team. Tom Green has impressed but is vying with more established players for a midfield spot, while Deven Robertson looked the goods straight away but may struggle to crack the Lions midfield. All the good mid rooks seem to be playing for teams with good midfields!
1. Rowell
2. Pickett
3. Robertson
4. Green
5. Anderson
6. Brown
RUCKS
Name | Club | Price | Marsh 1 | Marsh 2 | $PPPPTOG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darcy CAMERON | COL | $123,900 | 127 | DNP | 73169 |
Jordon SWEET | WBD | $123,900 | 73 | DNP | 120505 |
Bailey J. WILLIAMS | WCE | $123,900 | 70 | DNP | 123900 |
Tom DE KONING | CAR | $123,900 | 38 | 41 | 134878 |
Tristan XERRI | NTH | $123,900 | 98 | 37 | 134913 |
Luke JACKSON | MEL | $198,300 | 22 | 71 | 230284 |
Callum C-JONES | RIC | $195,500 | 59 | 51 | 239932 |
Michael KNOLL | SYD | $123,900 | 3 | DNP | 908600 |
Bigoa NYUON | RIC | $117,300 | DNP | 2 | 1055700 |
We were hoping Darcy Cameron would win a spot in the Pies forward line. We were disappointed. AGAIN. Xerri has been good for the Roos, but Goldy prefers to ruck alone. Can he win a spot in the forwards with Brown to come back in? The top 3 options:
1. Xerri
2. Cameron
3. Coleman-Jones
FORWARDS
Name | Club | Price | Marsh 1 | Marsh 2 | $PPPPTOG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toby BEDFORD | MEL | $123,900 | DNP | 43 | 92205 |
Harrison JONES | ESS | $117,300 | 44 | DNP | 106636 |
Curtis TAYLOR | NTH | $123,900 | 33 | 95 | 123900 |
Connor BUDARICK | GCS | $106,900 | 74 | 37 | 125198 |
Jake AARTS | RIC | $123,900 | 36 | DNP | 130783 |
Tom SPARROW | MEL | $182,500 | 77 | DNP | 142208 |
Irving MOSQUITO | ESS | $123,900 | 26 | DNP | 142962 |
Bradley CLOSE | GEE | $109,900 | 51 | DNP | 150843 |
Aiden BONAR | NTH | $202,800 | 76 | 14 | 198293 |
Jack MAHONY | NTH | $117,300 | 30 | 53 | 200682 |
Ben DAVIS | ADE | $123,900 | 55 | 43 | 202286 |
Mitchell GEORGIADES | PTA | $130,800 | 35 | 43 | 204585 |
Ben CROCKER | ADE | $152,000 | 59 | 56 | 207513 |
Ely SMITH | BRL | $123,900 | 18 | DNP | 227150 |
William FRAMPTON | PTA | $165,400 | 54 | DNP | 235848 |
Cameron POLSON | CAR | $138,500 | 51 | 5 | 244848 |
Kysaiah K-PICKETT | MEL | $157,800 | 43 | DNP | 256884 |
Max KING | STK | $123,900 | 44 | 29 | 257984 |
Tyson STENGLE | ADE | $202,000 | 61 | 55 | 268172 |
Hugh DIXON | FRE | $171100 | 35 | 12 | 269391 |
Sam STURT | FRE | $123,900 | 39 | 29 | 278775 |
Anthony TREACY | WCE | $112,900 | 26 | DNP | 295277 |
Ryan GARDINER | WBD | $136,800 | 43 | DNP | 295870 |
Minairo FREDERICK | FRE | $117,300 | 11 | DNP | 319909 |
Tobin COX | PTA | $123,900 | 24 | DNP | 320075 |
Connor BALLENDEN | BRL | $123,900 | 18 | DNP | 357933 |
Shane MCADAM | ADE | $123,900 | 23 | DNP | 360926 |
Mathew WALKER | HAW | $123,900 | 5 | DNP | 867300 |
Connor MCFADYEN | BRL | $123,900 | 3 | DNP | 867300 |
Atu BOSENVULAGI | COL | $123,900 | 3 | DNP | 2560600 |
The rookie shortage is best summed up by the fact that Pies discard Ben Crocker is one of the highest scoring rookies in the Marsh Series this year. Connor Budarick looks very sound but saw limited game time in round 2. Mitch Georgiades showed some good signs but looks destined to start his career in the SANFL. Best job security award goes to Max King, but it’s entirely possible he won’t make it to $200K this season! Fortunately Curtis Taylor redeemed the forwards with an outstanding display against the Swans.
1. Budarick
2. Taylor
3. King
4. Crocker
5. Mahony/Rankine
Allsaints will be bringing you all the detailed stats from round 2 of the Marsh Series, starting here and continuing throughout the week. I’ll be back next week with a detailed preview of all our rookie options once the round 1 teams have dropped, as well as weekly reviews of all rookie performances each round throughout the season.
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Have you been up all night? How the hell did you get that completed so quickly?
Fantastic effort mate, but it certainly makes for some grim reading/slim pickings doesn’t it?
Am hoping Horse felt Gould had already done enough for a Rd1 spot but that is probably just false hope. Tom Sparrow was impressive in Game1 for MEL and may get an opportunity if vandenBerg can’t be put back together again 🙁
There are rookies like Mead, BJ Williams and McHenry (and others) who have had minor setbacks but may still feature very early. Don’t LIKE to do it, but may even have to start one or two of these as bench filler in the hope they put their hands up early, if only to save early trades and get a semi-decent onfield team ready for Rd1. Still have so many questions with Rd1 not far away and no more games to watch. It’s gonna be very hard but I reckon it makes for the most exciting SuperCoach season in memory. Remember, we’re all in the same boat!
Thanks again Chillo. Outstanding effort!
Yesterday was a public holiday so I had some spare time to work on it. What, they don’t have Canberra Day where you are? 😉
I read somewhere that Williams had a good training session on the weekend, so I guess it was only a very minor hammy twinge. Hopefully he makes the 22. Mead and McHenry might take a bit longer but they would be nice downgrade options later on.
There’s going to be a lot of uncertainty throughout the entire season (and not all of it rookie-related either, unfortunately). Whoever can dodge the most landmines is going to come out on top.
PS my son’s favourite ninja is Kai … can we go with the Kai-rating?!?
I agree with your ranking of Robertson in the midfield but that says it all really.
The rookie with the third best job security in the midfield has bugger all job security.
My bigger worry is are we going to be in a rookie drought all season?
Are we better to play the key forward stock market to generate cash during the season
‘Key forward stock market’? Love it GP!
Disclaimer: I stole that from Father Dougal. 😛 It was in one of his articles.
With careful planning, it might actually be doable.
Lots of coffee last night Chillo ??? Great work. I’m not as pessimistic as most, but I have sacrificed one uber for McGrath to allow a broader range of selection options among the rooks. We are spoilt this year in that there seems a good sprinkling of under pricers like Smith, Roberton Doch, to spread the vegemite a bit further. Budarick now looks likely to take my last f/m spot and I’m hoping B Williams gets a run as d8 and ruck cover.
Gonna be a long 9 days !!
Great stuff Chillo.
As of last night I’ve gone full midprice madness (plenty of 200-250k picks). In fact, its increasingly looking like guns’n’rookies is the madness strategy this year.
Hard to have confidence in starting many rookies on field.
I think it’s great though, really mixes things up and reduces the likelihood of everyone’s teams being the same
Great stuff, this is exactly the kind of data I was hoping to see (didn’t expect it so early!)
Agree with most of your rookie rankings….Although I do believe De Koning could have been higher and I also think Sharp might surprise a few. I think it’s out of him or Anderson for a spot on Suns 22 and he was very good in a half of footy on the weekend.
Good luck all
Cheers Chillo. Didn’t catch much of the Marsh series so this is helpful.
Week 1: “We are in never before seen ruck territory. I have 4 rookie rucks in my team”
Week 2: “Yeh, so about that floating donut.
What do we think of gaff & cogs M4 & M5?
Gaff looked terrific in SOO & Marsh series.. Tim kelly will definitely help…
cogs just presents value and may very well finish top 10 at worst M8
Dont forget about Viney
Exactly same dilemma – need to downgrade an uber to sure up other lines, and deciding on Gaff v Cogs. Leaving towards Gaff (more likely to play more games). It may come down to whether I need a little more $’s, then its Cogs
I reckon Gaff and Coniglio average very similar. Difference being that Cogs will be up and down, whereas Gaff should get you a solid 105-115 each week IMO with low standard deviation. Both solidish picks I guess in terms of a little but of value, doubtful that either crack the top 8 mids though…
Great article. Im really struggling with rookies this year as everyone is.
Might take him a few weeks to get in the team however Damon Greeves will get plenty of game time as they need a smaller type to replace Hardiwick
Have lined up something I hope will serve well if the rookie stocks are as thin as expected.
Hurn, Doc, Roberton, Noble, Ash, B-Zerk (Williamson, Williams)
– Like Hurn as a POD, particularly early.
– Doc working into it , but he’s fit and won’t take long to get his touch back.
– Roberton looks too good to miss at that price.
– Noble seems as good a choice at this price, provided he’s named.
– Ash and Zerk look like they’ll be given opportunity early.
– Think Williamson and Williams will feature sooner rather than later, could change pending teams.
Macrae, Neale, Cripps, Dunkley, Oliver, Dev Smith, Rowell, Pickett (Starc, McHenry, Budarick)
– Those 5 premos have been set in stone for weeks, nothing has changed.
– Smith is here for now, but can easily be swung forward pending rookie selection.
– Rowell and Pickett pick themselves.
– Starc looked good enough on the weekend, McHenry and Budarick hopefully get named. Have enough money on the bench to shuffle around names if necessary.
Gawn, Jacobs (Xerri)
– Gawn vs. Grundy will go down to the wire. Gawn with the injury issues, but seems OK now…something looks off with Grundy.
– Sneaking suspicion Xerri might get games along the way.
Whitfield, Martin, Petracca, Steven, Brander, Taylor (Cameron, Rankine)
– Whitfield and Martin by a mile, can’t go without.
– Petracca feels right this year.
– Steven looks like he’s playing with real intent. He’s not 100% fit, but I think he’s good for 90+.
– Brander plays early, fingers crossed for Taylor and Cameron, Rankine plays if fit.
Only 6 rookies on-field, and at this stage that’s just Rowell (elite,ready, rebuilding side), Pickett (mature, ready), Ash (talented as hell), Zerk (fills a structural need for Essendon), Brander (talented, fills a structural need) and Taylor/Rankine (talented in rebuilding sides).
Such a valuable resource. Thank you!
Any thoughts on which GWS youngster has better JS?
TU: Ash
TD: Green
With the little you had to go on, fantastic stuff
Oh sweet monkey Jesus we’re screwed. The cowpocalypse is well and truly upon us.
On a happier note, great work in getting this up, Chillo. Since you asked if we had a catchier name for ‘$PPPPTOG’, I would normally suggest something like ‘value’, but, as you want something pirate or ninja-related, how about ‘Ninjabucks’?
This sermon of Father Dougal’s from last year is looking more relevant than ever: http://supercoachtalk.com/keepers-and-bargains/
Didn’t realise how cheap Crocker was pretty decent js
Move the price point to 250k and call them wookies and the availability of good points scores that are likely to play is sensational.
Coleman Jones for 190k or Naismith for a few $more