Scoring Anomalies – Round 13

Written by The Salamander on June 18 2021

This week, I’m going to do much the same as last week, but with two scores from Round 13. For this, I’ve picked out Collingwood’s Brayden Maynard and Jamie Elliot from the above chart.

For reference, here’s how the game went:

Once again, I’ve added up the time-series-based score by hand this week. They’re still slightly different from the SyntheticCoach raw scores (Maynard was 188 instead of 188.5, and Elliot added up to 80 instead of 78). I’m not actually sure which one of these is more accurate, but they’re close enough for what we’re trying to accomplish here today.

Based on the unweighted scores, the multiplier for the game was approximately 0.826, meaning we need to get Elliot’s weighted raw score up from 80 to around 97, and Maynard’s down from 188 to about 172.

One thing that I noticed early on was that the third quarter was Elliot’s busiest, and Maynard’s quietest, so that seemed like an appropriate place to start.

It also occurred to me that CD would probably want to keep the average weighting for the game at 1, so I’ve tried to do the same.

The highest weighting I went to for a quarter last week was 1.75, so I started there this week. I bumped the other three quarters down to 0.75 to get the aforementioned average to 1. Here’s how it went:

Q1: 0.75 Q2: 0.75 Q3: 1.75 Q4: 0.75

Elliot: 93, Maynard: 174.5

For a first guess, that’s got me pretty close to where I needed to be. Pushing it a little further:

Q1: 0.66 Q2: 0.66 Q3: 2 Q4: 0.66

Elliot: 97, Maynard: 169

Elliot’s score is bang-on, and Maynard is only 3 points off. Given that the true multiplier is unknown (I would need all the weighted raw scores from the game in order to calculate it), we can probably stop at this point, and say “close enough.”

That went a bit quicker than I was expecting!

For comparison, I also tried to infer some weightings from the live scores on the day (thanks to Lock and Load for suggesting this idea, and to Lisa for for posting quarter-by-quarter score updates in that match’s Game Chat thread.) By comparing the proportions of change in actual score and change in raw score, divided by the multiplier to try and account for in-game scaling, I was able to get weightings of 0.98 for the first half, 1.19 for the third quarter, and 0.61 for the last quarter (though the weighting for the last quarter was based on the final, post-game, post-weighting scores, so that may not be totally accurate). This actually gets Maynard right to where we need him at 172, but doesn’t get Elliot anywhere near 97, leaving him in the mid-70s.

In practice, the final weightings are not determined by Champion Data until after the game has finished, so it’s probably not really possible to infer the actual weightings from the live scores.

The biggest thing I’ve learned in the last two weeks of doing this is that CD seems to weight different periods of the game far more aggressively than I had originally assumed.

This doesn’t necessarily get me much closer to the aim of being able to have a machine look at the score worm and determine the appropriate weightings, but I do at least have a clearer idea of what those weightings will tend to look like. The caveat here is that we have a sample size of just two games for that, so I will need to keep investigating that further in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, you can look up any player you like in the table below to see how their score was affected by scaling on the weekend; for an in-depth breakdown of their scoring, see the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.

The exception to the above this week is Hawthorn’s Jai Newcombe. I haven’t added the mid-season draftees to the bit of SyntheticCoach that lets me get each player’s real score into the table; I’d got away with it up until now, because none of them had played until the weekend. I’ll get that fixed up for next week.


Name Club Raw Linear-Scaled ActualDiff
Callum Coleman-JonesRICH10079812
Chris BurgessGCFC86.571776
John NobleCOLL857064-6
Liam BakerRICH917266-6
Lachie SchultzFRE66.555561
Tom DoedeeADEL947972-7
Jack HenryGEEL122111110-1
Max LynchCOLL86.57163-8
Harry MorrisonHAW4634395
Willem DrewPORT88.58072-8
Daniel RioliRICH84.56760-7
Nick LarkeyNMFC58.547481
Izak RankineGCFC65546410
Connor RozeePORT12211112615
Isaac CummingGWS8266682
Bayley FritschMELB4940444
Ben McKayNMFC52.5425210
Esava RatugoleaGEEL837566-9
James WorpelHAW7657636
Jack HigginsSTK1038685-1
Andrew BrayshawFRE125.510492-12
Adam CerraFRE116.596971
Jaidyn StephensonNMFC8367703
Noah BaltaRICH71.5567216
Kane FarrellPORT26.52422-2
Hunter ClarkSTK322723-4
Luke Davies-UniackeNMFC104.58474-10
Charlie SpargoMELB34.528313
James BellSYD8564640
Mitch CrowdenFRE25.52119-2
Jack BytelSTK322722-5
Jack LukosiusGCFC78.565727
Zac LangdonWCE816457-7
Liam RyanWCE6451510
Oscar AllenWCE79.5637815
Beau McCreeryCOLL49405010
Lachie YoungNMFC413329-4
Tristan XerriNMFC47.538413
Jordon ButtsADEL736158-3
Todd MarshallPORT4440
Josh DaicosCOLL645348-5
Nathan MurphyCOLL15.51312-1
Kade ChandlerMELB0000
Josh CorbettGCFC0000
Luke FoleyWCE1118882-6
Nick CoffieldSTK39.53331-2
Tarryn ThomasNMFC9072775
Malcolm RosasGCFC18.515216
Liam HenryFRE59.549556
Jacob KoschitzkeHAW5743496
Bailey ScottNMFC49.54038-2
Caleb GrahamGCFC12.5109-1
James RowbottomSYD1158677-9
Xavier O'HalloranGWS0000
Lachlan ShollADEL0000
Curtis TaylorNMFC0000
Max KingSTK99.583896
Ben KingGCFC2117225
Bobby HillGWS33.527292
Chayce JonesADEL58.549512
Sam WicksSYD89.56766-1
Dylan MooreHAW1178885-3
Luke EdwardsWCE13110396-7
Mark O'ConnorGEEL64.559601
Jake SteinGWS42.53432-2
Wil PowellGCFC11292975
Connor IdunGWS92.575761
Isaac QuaynorCOLL104.586926
Joel AmarteySYD103.57870-8
Will HamillADEL66.55655-1
Ned McHenryADEL3731343
Tom McCartinSYD7858613
Xavier O'NeillWCE0000
Riley ThilthorpeADEL125.51051105
Josh MorrisHAW201514-1
Kysaiah PickettMELB645344-9
Harry SchoenbergADEL92.5789416
Will DayHAW644843-5
Charlie BallardGCFC99.58273-9
Harrison PettyMELB6654551
Trent BiancoCOLL2319234
Jack MahonyNMFC91.57470-4
Miles BergmanPORT69.563641
Noah AndersonGCFC52.543529
Matt RowellGCFC65.554540
Lachie AshGWS85.56967-2
Sam FlandersGCFC71.559623
Trent RiversMELB81.567736
Luke JacksonMELB131.51091134
Joel WesternFRE29.524273
Brandon WalkerFRE72.56050-10
Caleb SerongFRE107.58980-9
Tom GreenGWS72.558602
Jack BuckleyGWS85.569767
Mitch GeorgiadesPORT61556712
Jack MadgenCOLL82.568757
Harry EdwardsWCE118.59489-5
Lachie JonesPORT63.55843-15
Caleb PoulterCOLL6453618
Tom PowellNMFC8165705
Justin McInerneySYD72.55452-2
Josh WorrellADEL171413-1
Hugo RalphsmithRICH0000
Ryan ByrnesSTK84.57164-7
Sam BerryADEL81.56860-8
Josh TreacyFRE99.5829513
Logan McDonaldSYD57.543441
James JordonMELB12110099-1
Jay RantallCOLL21.51811-7
Jai NewcombeHAW10478-78
Shaun BurgoyneHAW6448546
David MundyFRE1179795-2
Shannon HurnWCE13610712215
Lance FranklinSYD59.545472
Josh J. KennedyWCE127.51011098
Paddy RyderSTK50.54234-8
Bachar HouliRICH13710899-9
Joel SelwoodGEEL9990922
David MackayADEL71.560655
Travis BoakPORT131119108-11
Jack RiewoldtRICH73.55856-2
Shaun HigginsGEEL6660600
Scott PendleburyCOLL1951611676
Josh P. KennedySYD148111107-4
Shane EdwardsRICH70.556571
Ben McEvoyHAW157118116-2
Sam J. ReidGWS70.5576912
Robbie GrayPORT103.59410511
Tom HawkinsGEEL124.5113110-3
Robbie TarrantNMFC76.56259-3
Lachie HendersonGEEL3027270
Trent CotchinRICH62.549490
Patrick DangerfieldGEEL69.563663
Rory SloaneADEL1221021031
Matt de BoerGWS37.530333
Nic NaitanuiWCE164129125-4
Todd GoldsteinNMFC159128126-2
Jordan RougheadCOLL766357-6
Callan WardGWS12410084-16
Chris MayneCOLL117.59786-11
Taylor WalkerADEL473934-5
Charlie DixonPORT1131031107
Zac SmithGCFC89.57473-1
Liam ShielsHAW12694951
Luke BreustHAW1027673-3
Shane MumfordGWS94.576771
Dylan GrimesRICH104.582919
Ben CunningtonNMFC1551251294
Jack ZiebellNMFC1209791-6
Steele SidebottomCOLL87.572742
Travis ColyerFRE88738411
Steven MotlopPORT42.53936-3
Michael WaltersFRE9175794
Mitch DuncanGEEL7165749
Steven MayMELB1341111110
Hugh GreenwoodGCFC143118117-1
Jack ReddenWCE153121113-8
Kane LambertRICH1118882-6
Michael HibberdMELB7259634
Josh ThomasCOLL7159601
Dane RampeSYD154.511613115
Trent McKenziePORT83.576782
Max GawnMELB155128123-5
Josh CaddyRICH77.56158-3
Daniel LloydGWS8165694
Jimmy WebsterSTK80.56857-11
Luke ParkerSYD125.59486-8
Shaun AtleyNMFC1058582-3
Andrew GaffWCE105.58380-3
Reece ConcaFRE91.57668-8
Jamie CrippsWCE88.570722
David SwallowGCFC1401161171
Jack DarlingWCE37.53027-3
Dustin MartinRICH126.510011010
Jonathon CeglarHAW168.51261315
Gary RohanGEEL127.51161226
Adam KennedyGWS5847536
Luke DahlhausGEEL38.535361
Tom McDonaldMELB62.552520
Josh WalkerNMFC54.54440-4
Will Hoskin-ElliottCOLL105.58785-2
Brodie SmithADEL79.56763-4
Tom StewartGEEL131.512013010
Robbie FoxSYD7355616
Brody MihocekCOLL74.562708
Tom MitchellHAW180135134-1
Chad WingardHAW7657669
Harry CunninghamSYD4836404
Elliot YeoWCE12296993
Tom JonasPORT5449534
Zach TuohyGEEL56.55147-4
Rory LairdADEL14211913213
Brandon EllisGCFC105.587870
Sam FrostHAW90.568691
Jamie ElliottCOLL78648016
Jeremy CameronGEEL149.513615115
Jack CrispCOLL9276793
Jed BewsGEEL60.55552-3
Sean LemmensGCFC97.58072-8
George HewettSYD8261665
Sam MenegolaGEEL89.581854
Tom HickeySYD12795961
Lachie WhitfieldGWS1048474-10
Brad CrouchSTK164.5138124-14
Ollie WinesPORT153.51401444
Luke DunstanSTK132111105-6
Aliir AliirPORT948584-1
Kamdyn McIntoshRICH6249556
Jaeger O'MearaHAW1239281-11
Alex SextonGCFC29.52418-6
Nick VlastuinRICH146.51161160
Paul SeedsmanADEL117.5991001
Isaac SmithGEEL93.585894
James AishFRE148122111-11
Nathan BroadRICH13810994-15
Nick HaynesGWS153123118-5
Mason WoodSTK95.5809414
Jake LloydSYD138.51041040
Toby GreeneGWS122.5991034
Bradley HillSTK10689945
Trent DumontNMFC105.58577-8
Tim O'BrienHAW74.556659
Taylor GarnerNMFC3226337
Jack SteeleSTK174146126-20
Lewis TaylorSYD433231-1
Jarman ImpeyHAW6851510
Jake KolodjashnijGEEL40.537370
Blake AcresFRE12610493-11
Dom SheedWCE1028171-10
Josh KellyGWS207167147-20
Jack BillingsSTK97.582875
Christian SalemMELB126.510499-5
Brett BewleyFRE998281-1
Alex Neal-BullenMELB76.56361-2
Callum WilkieSTK61.5527321
Mark BlicavsGEEL99.59083-7
Aaron HallNMFC156.512614115
Karl AmonPORT80.57361-12
Nick HolmanGCFC59.54946-3
Jake KellyADEL79.56765-2
Reilly O'BrienADEL126.510690-16
James HarmesMELB110.59188-3
Jeremy FinlaysonGWS604847-1
Christian PetraccaMELB124.510396-7
Ed LangdonMELB846962-7
Liam DugganWCE55.54443-1
Touk MillerGCFC144.51191278
Angus BrayshawMELB816760-7
Jake LeverMELB89.574773
Darcy MooreCOLL11292986
Jackson NelsonWCE71.556571
Oleg MarkovGCFC10587914
Alex PearceFRE85.571787
Brandan ParfittGEEL90.582853
Connor BlakelyFRE0000
Shane McAdamADEL4538413
Lachie WellerGCFC695754-3
Isaac HeeneySYD5239423
Tom BarrassWCE85.5678013
Darcy CameronCOLL130.51081135
Rory LobbFRE127.51051105
Jack GrahamRICH10482820
Darcy Byrne-JonesPORT666059-1
Jason CastagnaRICH44.53533-2
Jack LonieSTK47.54033-7
Brayden MaynardCOLL188.5156142-14
Jayden ShortRICH133.51051116
Ryan BurtonPORT7871732
Jordan DawsonSYD9370733
Dan ButlerSTK91.577770
Daniel HoweHAW11183841
Kayne TurnerNMFC7863641
Paul HunterSTK37.531365
Jake AartsRICH786260-2
Harry HimmelbergGWS1169389-4
Dougal HowardSTK16013416026
Marlion PickettRICH9172731
Blake HardwickHAW108.58172-9
Sam WeidemanMELB302522-3
Darcy TuckerFRE12610495-9
Tom ColeWCE6451521
Matt FlynnGWS1239911718
Jacob HopperGWS937567-8
Callum MillsSYD159119105-14
Ben LongSTK87739421
Ben KeaysADEL122.51031030
Sam Powell-PepperPORT48.54440-4
Shai BoltonRICH121.596960
Jy SimpkinNMFC165133128-5
Mabior CholRICH7962653
Jordan De GoeyCOLL1301071158
Dan HoustonPORT119.5109102-7
Jayden HuntMELB776458-6
Tom AtkinsGEEL38.535350
Jack SinclairSTK150.51261260
Riley BonnerPORT484440-4
Tom PhillipsHAW132.59992-7
Jake WatermanWCE58.546482
Clayton OliverMELB128.51061082
Tom PapleySYD50.53832-6
Will HaywardSYD32.524284
Peter LadhamsPORT12010993-16
Andrew McPhersonADEL8370722
Josh RothamWCE715651-5
Oliver FlorentSYD78.559634
Jack ScrimshawHAW121.591943
Taylin DumanFRE118.59891-7
Josh BattleSTK48.54136-5
Sean DarcyFRE181149140-9
Tim TarantoGWS128.5104101-3
Tom HighmoreSTK141118111-7
Jack BowesGCFC85.571754
Changkuoth JiathHAW153.5115112-3
Cameron ZurhaarNMFC124.51001066
Luke RyanFRE1461201288
Jamaine JonesWCE463634-2
James RoweADEL91.57766-11
Brad CloseGEEL797266-6
Darcy FogartyADEL4437381
Boyd WoodcockPORT3532320
Tom SparrowMELB4436371
Quinton NarkleGEEL0000



Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.


Download the full breakdowns:

Round 13 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

Round 13 Summary (General Categories)


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2 thoughts on “Scoring Anomalies – Round 13”

  1. Interesting, I have Kelly, Steele and O’Brien. Lost 56 points!
    Pretty good how you work this out.



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