Scoring Anomalies – Round 19

Written by The Salamander on July 30 2021

So, I’ve been trying to use the quarter-by-quarter scores that I can now generate to try and work out once and for all what’s behind those blue and red lines in the above chart.

I decided I would start by trying to manually apply weightings, to get a feel for what works and what doesn’t, before I try and automate that part of it.

I’ve done this before, seemingly with some success, with individual player scores – how much harder could it be to do it for a whole two teams?

First, I tried the Adelaide vs Hawthorn game, which I picked out at random. Here’s how the game went:

No matter what I did, I couldn’t seem to get the weightings to work. Making one player’s score less wrong would make an other’s more so. I then decided that I’d perhaps picked out a tricky game – there are multiple points in the above timeline which could be viewed as the game being ‘on the line’, so I thought I’d try a more straightforward one: Brisbane vs Gold Coast:

This didn’t go much better.

It turns out that although it’s easy enough to get two players’ scores to line up by tweaking quarter-by-quarter weightings, it’s a lot harder to get it to work for all the players in a match.

There appears to be something else going on that I haven’t accounted for.

It then occurred to me that since CD does some in-game scaling throughout each match (so that people don’t start complaining when their guy gets scaled down from 200 to 130 at the end – as regular readers of this column will no doubt be aware, the allocation of raw points in each match is way over 3300). I have a strong recollection of reading something, somewhere about each quarter being initially scaled to around 750 points, but a quick search online couldn’t find anything about this.

750 points per quarter would mean 3000 for the match, leaving around 300 points available for ‘bonus’ allocation based on whenever the game was on the line. This fits quite well with the normal (non-time-based) SyntheticCoach scores, where the sum of all absolute errors, for Round 19 at least, was about 7.6 percent of the total scaled points (3300 x 9 games) given out.

Doing this for the Lions/Suns match definitely seemed to push things in the right direction – the mean absolute error, or how wrong each score was on average, stayed at around 6, but it was a smaller group of outliers blowing that out.

I still can’t seem to get those extra 300-odd points to go where they’re meant to, though. I’ll keep plugging away, but the mystery of SuperCoach scoring has not been solved this week.

If anyone wants to have a go at trying to make the weightings work, the quarter-by-quarter scores are once again available in a spreadsheet at the bottom of this post, along with the usual breakdown and summary sheets.


Rory LairdADEL2191721786
Patrick DangerfieldGEEL17715216513
Josh P. KennedySYD172.514215412
Oscar McInerneyBL171.513714811
Lachie WhitfieldGWS181155146-9
Jack MacraeWB186153146-7
Caleb DanielWB189155145-10
Clayton OliverMELB176145144-1
Bailey SmithWB165.51361415
Jack CrispCOLL166.5141140-1
Zak JonesSTK179.5143140-3
Brayden FioriniGCFC184.5147139-8
Marcus BontempelliWB15412613610
Tarryn ThomasNMFC182141135-6
Daniel RichBL141.511313219
Nick LarkeyNMFC15512013111
Isaac HeeneySYD146.51201288
Errol GuldenSYD1551271270
Max GawnMELB160131125-6
Max KingSTK142.511412410
Aaron HallNMFC145.511312411
Todd GoldsteinNMFC156.51221220
Luke ParkerSYD1491221220
Ollie WinesPORT1351141228
Cameron GuthrieGEEL148127120-7
Tom GreenGWS122.510511914
Tom StewartGEEL157.5135118-17
Willem DrewPORT139118117-1
Dom SheedWCE138.51101166
Jordan RidleyESS134.51151150
Dylan MooreHAW147116115-1
Tom LiberatoreWB139.51151150
Touk MillerGCFC148118115-3
Brayden MaynardCOLL118.510011515
Tim KellyWCE12910311411
Jake LeverMELB131.51081146
Jaidyn StephensonNMFC1431111121
Tom HawkinsGEEL1018711225
Nic NaitanuiWCE142113112-1
Reilly O'BrienADEL170134112-22
Tom DoedeeADEL133.51051116
Daniel RioliRICH131.5113111-2
Sam TaylorGWS129.51111110
Ben McEvoyHAW134.51061115
Tom MitchellHAW140.51111110
Jordan DawsonSYD139114111-3
Josh CorbettGCFC130.51041106
Andrew BrayshawFRE142117109-8
Steele SidebottomCOLL130.5111109-2
Jack SteeleSTK139.5111109-2
Hugh McCluggageBL126.51011087
Jack MadgenCOLL133.5113108-5
Dane RampeSYD125.51031074
Dan ButlerSTK138.5110107-3
Josh J. KennedyWCE104.58310623
Charlie DixonPORT1191011054
Wil PowellGCFC123981046
Elliot YeoWCE141.5113104-9
Will SnellingESS117.51011043
Adam CerraFRE149.5123103-20
Caleb SerongFRE133.5110103-7
Tom HickeySYD126.5104103-1
Travis BoakPORT127.5108102-6
Dyson HeppellESS121.5104102-2
Andrew GaffWCE151120102-18
Nathan WilsonFRE130.5107102-5
Lachie HunterWB128105102-3
Jaeger O'MearaHAW139109102-7
Jacob WeiteringCARL106.58310219
Bailey ScottNMFC139.5108101-7
Chad WingardHAW140.5111101-10
Jarryd LyonsBL145115100-15
Jake LloydSYD131.5108100-8
Harris AndrewsBL123981002
Isaac SmithGEEL10792997
Jy SimpkinNMFC143.511299-13
Harry EdwardsWCE11995983
Ben CunningtonNMFC11690977
Toby NankervisRICH95829715
Harry SchoenbergADEL11691965
Jeremy SharpGCFC10987969
Nik CoxESS11710096-4
Ben KeaysADEL123.59796-1
Jack SinclairSTK113.590966
Harry PerrymanGWS118.510296-6
Todd MarshallPORT99.5849511
Brody MihocekCOLL108.592953
Jack VineyMELB1209995-4
Peter LadhamsPORT116.59995-4
Brent DanielsGWS1129694-2
Tim EnglishWB127.510594-11
Josh RothamWCE108.586948
Sean DarcyFRE13411094-16
Shannon HurnWCE114.591932
Rhys StanleyGEEL10590933
Connor RozeePORT98.584928
Ed CurnowCARL118.592920
Lachie HendersonGEEL88769216
Joe DaniherBL106.585927
Christian PetraccaMELB116.59692-4
Josh SchacheWB110.591910
Dan HoustonPORT10186915
Riley BonnerPORT99.584917
Oliver FlorentSYD1129291-1
Jack HenryGEEL97.584906
James WorpelHAW12810190-11
Paddy DowCARL106.583896
Jack ZiebellNMFC10380899
Mitch RobinsonBL1199589-6
Adam KennedyGWS103.589890
Robbie FoxSYD115.59589-6
Sebastian RossSTK119.59589-6
Jayden ShortRICH105.59189-2
Tom De KoningCARL1189288-4
Lincoln McCarthyBL100.580888
Jesse HoganGWS10086882
Isaac CummingGWS9985872
Liam DugganWCE127.510287-15
Jack SilvagniCARL124.59786-11
Dayne ZorkoBL1259986-13
George HewettSYD1078886-2
James StewartESS9682864
Alex Neal-BullenMELB116.59686-10
Karl AmonPORT1099286-6
Lachie AshGWS9581854
Jed AndersonNMFC1138885-3
Brodie GrundyCOLL9681854
Luke DunstanSTK106.585850
Tim O'BrienHAW10583852
Josh KellyGWS1059085-5
Esava RatugoleaGEEL8775849
Jack LukosiusGCFC104.583841
Jack RiewoldtRICH91.579845
David SwallowGCFC1118884-4
Brodie SmithADEL85.5678417
Nic NewmanCARL112.58784-3
Lachlan BrambleHAW101.580833
Shane MumfordGWS107.59283-9
Scott LycettPORT108.59283-9
Trent DumontNMFC1229583-12
Daniel McStayBL87698314
Connor IdunGWS8875827
Atu BosenavulagiNMFC10178824
Tom McDonaldMELB9376826
Jake StringerESS84728210
Sam MenegolaGEEL968382-1
Sam WalshCARL99.577814
Ned McHenryADEL94.574817
Rhyan MansellRICH88.576815
Jordan RougheadCOLL83.5718110
Jack DarlingWCE87698112
Jake WatermanWCE9273818
Matthew ParkerRICH978381-2
Mitch LewisHAW9272808
Ben KingGCFC95.576804
Charlie CameronBL1048380-3
Zaine CordyWB1008280-2
Blake HardwickHAW92.573807
Jordan De GoeyCOLL102.58780-7
Ned ReevesHAW112.58979-10
Tom FullartonBL104.58379-4
Callan WardGWS978379-4
Jack NewnesCARL114.58979-10
Paul SeedsmanADEL10079790
Jack GrahamRICH83.572797
Bailey WilliamsWB9578791
Jack RossRICH968378-5
Tom McCartinSYD92.576782
Jamie CrippsWCE9475783
Luke Davies-UniackeNMFC1179177-14
Mark O'ConnorGEEL8977770
Luke DahlhausGEEL8472775
Taylor AdamsCOLL98.58477-7
Luke McDonaldNMFC1179177-14
Peter WrightESS1048977-12
Paddy RyderSTK103.58376-7
Brandan ParfittGEEL8674762
Aaron NaughtonWB82.568757
Nick CoffieldSTK9374751
Patrick CrippsCARL1098575-10
Sam Petrevski-SetonCARL8868757
Ben AinsworthGCFC95.57675-1
Jack BowesGCFC82657510
Darcy FogartyADEL106.58475-9
Trent RiversMELB8872742
Taylor WalkerADEL80637411
Sam ReidSYD78647410
Bradley HillSTK104.58374-9
Jack ScrimshawHAW89.570744
Ben BrownMELB77.564739
Adam SaadCARL8868735
Mark BlicavsGEEL1018773-14
Jacob HopperGWS8069734
Sam DurhamESS83.572731
Ryan LesterBL94.57572-3
Jayden LaverdeESS80.569723
Bailey DaleWB8771721
Tom PapleySYD76.563729
Sam DraperESS75.565716
Will HamillADEL8265716
Trent CotchinRICH887671-5
Rory SloaneADEL83.566715
Lachie PlowmanCARL9171710
Zac WilliamsCARL67527119
Darcy CameronCOLL83.571710
Zach MerrettESS79.568713
Nick BlakeySYD8570700
Matt RowellGCFC88.570700
Lance FranklinSYD8167703
Zach TuohyGEEL100.58670-16
Sam Powell-PepperPORT8270700
Jayden HuntMELB99.58270-12
Lachlan MurphyADEL7660699
Liam JonesCARL8566693
Nat FyfeFRE73.560699
Nick HaynesGWS927969-10
Darcy Byrne-JonesPORT80.568691
Cale HookerESS76.566682
Taylor DuryeaWB87.57268-4
Tim MembreySTK7963685
Callum WilkieSTK92.57468-6
Sam FrostHAW75.559678
Jack MartinCARL8062675
Callum Ah CheeBL76.561676
Xavier DuursmaPORT857266-6
Chayce JonesADEL81.564662
Trey RuscoeCOLL7664662
James MaddenBL7862664
Phil DavisGWS81.57066-4
Griffin LogueFRE826766-1
David AstburyRICH7464651
Ryan BurtonPORT78.56765-2
Will BrodieGCFC96.57765-12
Ryan GarthwaiteRICH776665-1
Gryan MiersGEEL6758646
Kysaiah PickettMELB74.561643
Shaun AtleyNMFC85.56664-2
Lachie NealeBL87.57064-6
Christian SalemMELB816764-3
Billy FramptonADEL836564-1
Caleb PoulterCOLL827063-7
Oliver HenryCOLL71.561632
Sam J. ReidGWS64.555638
Brad SheppardWCE83.56763-4
Daniel LloydGWS7161632
Jimmy WebsterSTK89.57163-8
James AishFRE786463-1
Tom AtkinsGEEL776663-3
Trent BiancoCOLL67.557625
Tom LynchADEL937362-11
Travis ColyerFRE73.560622
Steven MayMELB7360622
Andrew McPhersonADEL7458624
Luke RyanFRE78.56462-2
Nick HindESS78.56761-6
Mason RedmanESS69.560611
John NobleCOLL816960-9
James CousinsHAW75.559601
Sydney StackRICH6253607
James RowbottomSYD6553607
Kyle HartiganHAW876860-8
Harry HimmelbergGWS59.551609
Brad CloseGEEL716160-1
Jack PayneBL846759-8
Tom J. LynchRICH81.57059-11
Jeremy McGovernWCE7459590
Zac LangdonWCE7257581
Isaac QuaynorCOLL6858580
Charlie BallardGCFC68.555583
Devon SmithESS68.55958-1
Luke JacksonMELB6453574
Paul HunterSTK6552575
Will HaywardSYD78.56457-7
Boyd WoodcockPORT63.554573
Mitch CrowdenFRE67.555561
Sam WicksSYD59.549567
Luke BreustHAW725756-1
Jamie ElliottCOLL6152564
Bayley FritschMELB63.552553
Mitch HannanWB6755550
Elliott HimmelbergADEL90.57155-16
Miles BergmanPORT58.550555
Noah AndersonGCFC67.554551
Brandon WalkerFRE62.551554
Justin McInerneySYD6453552
Dylan GrimesRICH68.55955-4
Gary RohanGEEL6455550
Tom JonasPORT82.57055-15
Connor WestWCE63.551554
Oscar ClavarinoSTK6854540
Hayden YoungFRE695754-3
Kane LambertRICH655654-2
Jake KolodjashnijGEEL786754-13
Daniel HoweHAW816454-10
Darcy TuckerFRE6453541
Tom ColeWCE5846548
Nathan MurphyCOLL68.55853-5
Caleb GrahamGCFC6249534
Riley GarciaWB6049534
Liam ShielsHAW71.55653-3
Michael WaltersFRE52435310
Dylan ShielESS6051532
Jack BillingsSTK6149534
Jake AartsRICH685853-5
Tim TarantoGWS756453-11
Bailey BanfieldFRE5747536
Lloyd MeekFRE61.551521
Tanner BruhnGWS45.5395213
Finlay MacraeCOLL67.55752-5
Will PhillipsNMFC5946526
Jed BewsGEEL59.551521
Aliir AliirPORT64.55552-3
Tom PhillipsHAW63.550522
Chris BurgessGCFC766051-9
Zak ButtersPORT57.549512
Sam FlandersGCFC71.55751-6
Joel SelwoodGEEL50.543518
James HarmesMELB70.55851-7
Xavier O'HalloranGWS59.55150-1
Cody WeightmanWB5444506
Zac BaileyBL62.55049-1
Brayden HamESS59.55149-2
Ed RichardsWB5848491
Xavier O'NeillWCE57.546493
Liam StockerCARL47.5374912
Dean KentSTK665349-4
Sam CollinsGCFC635049-1
Tom CutlerESS60.55249-3
Ed LangdonMELB635249-3
Darcy ParishESS645549-6
David ZaharakisESS5648480
Josh BruceWB55.546482
Jake KellyADEL59.547481
Ben McKayNMFC50.539478
Charlie SpargoMELB4739478
Angus BrayshawMELB68.55647-9
Zac FisherCARL59.546471
Matthew KennedyCARL63.54946-3
Curtis TaylorNMFC77.56046-14
Sean LemmensGCFC53.543463
Liam BakerRICH49.543452
Brandon StarcevichBL725745-12
Archie PerkinsESS59.55145-6
David MundyFRE584845-3
Marlion PickettRICH54.54745-2
Matthew CottrellCARL5644440
Rory AtkinsGCFC47.538446
Jason CastagnaRICH60.55244-8
Dougal HowardSTK5141443
James BellSYD53.54443-1
Grant BirchallBL69.55543-12
Matt TabernerFRE38.5324311
Kayne TurnerNMFC61.54843-5
Ben LongSTK62.55043-7
Tristan XerriNMFC5341421
Jacob KoschitzkeHAW48.538424
Jamarra Ugle-HaganWB38314211
Matthew OwiesCARL47.537425
Shai BoltonRICH52.54542-3
Mabior CholRICH37.5324210
Lachlan ShollADEL574541-4
James JordonMELB524341-2
Deven RobertsonBL534240-2
Alex PearceFRE41.534406
Anton TohillCOLL46.539390
Quinton NarkleGEEL706039-21
Mitch GeorgiadesPORT42.536382
Josh WalkerNMFC49.538380
Ryan ByrnesSTK564537-8
Roarke SmithWB44.537370
Lachie SchultzFRE51.54236-6
Denver Grainger-BarrasHAW3931365
Mark HutchingsWCE514136-5
Michael HibberdMELB514236-6
Tom WilliamsonCARL524036-4
Oscar AllenWCE4435350
Cameron ZurhaarNMFC39.531354
Liam HenryFRE534434-10
Jack GinnivanCOLL554734-13
Izak RankineGCFC44.53533-2
Jordon ButtsADEL54.54333-10
Alex SextonGCFC3830333
Shane EdwardsRICH50.54332-11
Brad CrouchSTK443532-3
Jarrod BerryBL443532-3
Anthony ScottWB34.528313
Mason CoxCOLL33.528302
Sam BerryADEL41.53329-4
Jarrod BranderWCE43.53528-7
Leo ConnollySTK423328-5
Tyler BrockmanHAW2620277
Marc MurphyCARL46.53626-10
Scott PendleburyCOLL3025261
Jason JohannisenWB3025261
Harrison PettyMELB3025250
Liam RyanWCE2722242
Connor BlakelyFRE312521-4
Ben RonkeSYD2117192
Trent McKenziePORT1412197
Anthony McDonald-TipungwutiESS15.513174
Shaun BurgoyneHAW1915161
Jared PolecNMFC25.52012-8
Eddie BettsCARL10.58102
Alex KeathWB8.57103
Oleg MarkovGCFC10880
David MackayADEL7.5671
Hayden McLeanSYD0000
Jake RiccardiGWS0000
Josh CaddyRICH0000
Sam MayesPORT0000
Nakia CockatooBL0000
Matt GuelfiESS0000
Tom SparrowMELB0000
Cooper SharmanSTK0000



Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.


Download the full breakdowns:

Round 19 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

Round 19 Summary (General Categories)


Download the quarter-by-quarter scores:

Round 19 Quarter-By-Quarter Scoring (Raw Scores)



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4 thoughts on “Scoring Anomalies – Round 19”

  1. I love your enthusiasm in trying to work out this black box conundrum. I have two thoughts on CD.

    1) their score weighting is related to score/time of game. They must have multipliers on individual stats (kick, handballs, goals etc.) for when a team is ‘x’ points behind or ahead, and how long to go in a game. The issue is you have no way of knowing what these multipliers are, or how many there are. For example, a game that has a margin under a goal with 10 mins to go will have less favourable scaling than the same margin when there is 2 mins to go. Ultimately, there are just way too many variables to input

    2) even with the knowledge (or lack thereof) of the above, trying to attribute a logical process to CD may be impossible. This is CD remember, the same guys who rate Mason Cox as elite

    I love your endeavour, but you may be fighting a losing battle, unless you can find a way to open the CD black box (employee leak hopefully) to find out what’s inside <3


    1. Not always the case. I’ve seen many times where a defender (Jake Lloyd anyone) has chipped the ball around the backline when the game is already decided, but still rack up a pile of junk time points


    2. You might well be right. I’m going to see if I can have another go this week by splitting the scores into more fine-grained chunks of time than just quarters. But if that doesn’t work then it would suggest there are weightings for things other than just stage of the match, in which case we might be stuck there.



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