Scoring Anomalies – Round 22

Written by The Salamander on August 20 2021

I thought I’d have another go at weighting one of the games this week.

I’ve decided to go with the North Melbourne vs Sydney game, because there are four players from that match featured in the above chart, including the guy at the top, and second from the bottom – a perfect test case.

For reference, here’s how the game went:

The mean absolute error, or average level of wrongness, of the linear-scaled scores for that match is 6.53, with a maximum error of 33 points.

Of the guys in the chart, Hayward, JPK, Hall, and Turner were 33, 17, 19, and 20 points off respectively.

Can we get those numbers down?

The way the weightings seem to work, at least as far as the time of game is concerned, is that the period around the final lead change for the match is weighted highly, with everything before that having a neutral weight, and the rest of the match (junk time) being given a much lower weight.

Putting that theory to the test, and with a bit of trial and error, I found that if I weighted the period of the game between when the scores were 64-68 and 64-81 at 2.25, the remainder of the game after that at 0.5, and the game before that period at 1, I got the average error down to 4.45, with a maximum error of 14 points.

This left Will Hayward and JPK’s scores just 1 point off, while Hall and Turner’s errors were down to 12 and 14, respectively.

Not perfect, but a lot closer than it was. Could I keep tweaking the numbers and get it even closer? Possibly, but I think I’ve done enough to suggest my theory is on the right track. It’s possible that CD also weights things by other criteria, in which case simply adjusting the weightings for different periods of the game wouldn’t be enough to get you to the point where the scores are 100% accurate.

To reiterate, though, what I can say with a high level of confidence is that the period around the final lead change, or the last time the scores are close (e.g. the period in the last quarter in the North/Swans game where it got really close) is where the weightings are the highest.

At the start of the season, I decided I wanted to try and reverse-engineer CD’s scaling formula. As the season draws to a close, I wouldn’t say that I’ve totally succeeded at that, but I think I’ve at least moved the needle a bit.

I hope you’ve found it at least somewhat enlightening.

In the spirit of completeness, I’ll be sure to run the numbers on Round 23’s games and put them up at the usual time next week. I can’t promise any in-depth analysis, but I’ll make sure you get the numbers at least.

In the meantime, you can get an idea of how any particular player was scaled on the weekend by looking them up in the table below; for a more in-depth scoring breakdown, check out the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.


Name Club Raw Linear-Scaled ActualDiff
Patrick DangerfieldGEEL2031671692
Jarryd LyonsBL189.51471525
Sean DarcyFRE164.513315017
Luke ParkerSYD154.513414814
Josh KellyGWS1681421486
Jake StringerESS15012814719
Sam MenegolaGEEL175.51451450
Rhys StanleyGEEL183.5151143-8
Aliir AliirPORT153.512413713
Jack MacraeWB177139136-3
Caleb SerongFRE1561261359
Will HaywardSYD119.510413531
David MundyFRE1641331341
Cameron GuthrieGEEL166137133-4
Nick HindESS174148133-15
Bayley FritschMELB1671311321
Tom LiberatoreWB1681311321
Oscar McInerneyBL15412013111
Tim TarantoGWS124.510513126
Matthew KennedyCARL1601291301
Nic NaitanuiWCE1601291301
Chad WingardHAW150.511813012
Daniel HoweHAW167.5131129-2
Aaron HallNMFC12610912718
Christian PetraccaMELB145.511412612
Jayden ShortRICH150127126-1
Jack ReddenWCE1531241251
Tim O'BrienHAW168.5132125-7
Ben KeaysADEL159.51251250
Jack CrispCOLL179139124-15
Rory SloaneADEL156.5123122-1
Paul SeedsmanADEL168.5132122-10
Brayden FioriniGCFC143122119-3
Jordan De GoeyCOLL13510511914
Nick VlastuinRICH11910111817
Peter LadhamsPORT182147118-29
Dayne ZorkoBL167.5130117-13
Tom MitchellHAW141.51111176
Andrew GaffWCE158128116-12
Taylor AdamsCOLL13210311613
Liam BakerRICH150.5127115-12
Sam WalshCARL139.51121153
Marcus BontempelliWB138.51081146
Jacob HopperGWS139117114-3
Hugh McCluggageBL148115113-2
Mitch LewisHAW1401101122
Caleb DanielWB1421111121
Darcy ParishESS150.5128112-16
Harry CunninghamSYD125.51091112
Mason RedmanESS132113111-2
Zac BaileyBL1331031107
Dyson HeppellESS134.5115110-5
Shaun HigginsGEEL146.5121109-12
Tom HawkinsGEEL105.58710922
Trent CotchinRICH140118109-9
Ed LangdonMELB150118109-9
Jordan RidleyESS1271081080
Christian SalemMELB1351061082
Bailey DaleWB137.51081080
Tom HickeySYD125.5109107-2
Zach MerrettESS117.51001077
Travis BoakPORT116.59410612
Matt TabernerFRE121.5981068
Isaac CummingGWS126.5107105-2
Rory LairdADEL139109105-4
Jeremy CameronGEEL1271051050
Ollie WinesPORT137110105-5
Charlie CameronBL1301011043
Luke ShueyWCE146118103-15
Joe DaniherBL1027910324
Touk MillerGCFC116.5991034
Will SnellingESS120.51031030
Luke RyanFRE138.5112103-9
Darcy FogartyADEL1199310310
George HewettSYD121105102-3
Isaac SmithGEEL117961026
Elliot YeoWCE112.59110110
Daniel McStayBL127.5991012
Joel SelwoodGEEL120.5991001
Max GawnMELB127.51001000
Tom J. LynchRICH927810022
Jack SteeleSTK139115100-15
Hayden McLeanSYD10793996
Nick HaynesGWS10992997
Jordan DawsonSYD11499990
Willem DrewPORT105.5859813
Tom McCartinSYD10692986
Noah AndersonGCFC110.594984
Sam CollinsGCFC11195983
Jack SinclairSTK11796982
Robbie GrayPORT1239997-2
Luke DahlhausGEEL12310197-4
Connor RozeePORT124.510096-4
Zak ButtersPORT134.510896-12
Alex WitherdenWCE114.593963
Daniel RioliRICH12710795-12
Liam RyanWCE104849410
Lachie HendersonGEEL119.59894-4
Jai NewcombeHAW1279994-5
Adam CerraFRE96.5789315
Callan WardGWS131.511193-18
Brayden MaynardCOLL103.5809313
Clayton OliverMELB120.59593-2
Sam DurhamESS103.588935
Todd GoldsteinNMFC110.59692-4
Brad CrouchSTK1159592-3
Harry PerrymanGWS1169892-6
Jack LukosiusGCFC10791910
Jeremy McGovernWCE1179591-4
Darcy Byrne-JonesPORT124.510091-9
Dan HoustonPORT1219791-6
Luke JacksonMELB1209490-4
Ben McEvoyHAW10683907
Jonathon CeglarHAW11489901
Karl AmonPORT118.59590-5
Tom LynchADEL1189389-4
Brodie GrundyCOLL13010189-12
Matt GuelfiESS9783896
Marc MurphyCARL108.587881
Lachie NealeBL131.510288-14
Toby NankervisRICH9379889
Jacob KoschitzkeHAW90.5718716
Isaac HeeneySYD86.5758712
Harry HimmelbergGWS79.5678720
Josh P. KennedySYD120.510486-18
Jed AndersonNMFC84738613
Steele SidebottomCOLL110.58685-1
David SwallowGCFC1018685-1
Sebastian RossSTK99.582853
Jayden LaverdeESS86738512
Cameron ZurhaarNMFC9683852
Orazio FantasiaPORT111.59084-6
Dougal HowardSTK1058784-3
Zac FisherCARL104.584840
Luke Davies-UniackeNMFC105.59183-8
Charlie SpargoMELB107.58483-1
Sam SimpsonGEEL94.578835
Todd MarshallPORT94.576837
Jack DarlingWCE95.577836
Oliver FlorentSYD1028883-5
Tim EnglishWB81.5648218
Kieran StrachanADEL10179823
Liam ShielsHAW102.580822
Lincoln McCarthyBL9574828
Callum Ah CheeBL1118682-4
Zak JonesSTK1088982-7
James RowbottomSYD988581-4
Tom JonasPORT9476815
Lachie WhitfieldGWS9681810
Darcy CameronCOLL104.581810
Jaidyn StephensonNMFC9078802
Eddie FordNMFC9280800
Josh J. KennedyWCE72.5598021
Shai BoltonRICH88.575805
Jack HenryGEEL98.58179-2
Sydney StackRICH8874795
Xavier O'HalloranGWS8774795
Lachlan BrambleHAW1148978-11
Justin McInerneySYD948178-3
Scott LycettPORT84.5687810
Taylor DuryeaWB9877770
Josh WalkerNMFC95.58377-6
Dylan ShielESS92.57977-2
Jake KellyADEL109.58677-9
Jake LeverMELB9171776
Jack MadgenCOLL111.58776-11
Blake HardwickHAW123.59776-21
Darcy TuckerFRE9073763
Trent RiversMELB102.58075-5
Matt de BoerGWS8774751
Nic NewmanCARL1038375-8
Peter WrightESS73.5637512
Tom De KoningCARL88.571743
Mark O'ConnorGEEL77.5647410
Shaun BurgoyneHAW977674-2
Grant BirchallBL8868746
Charlie DixonPORT99.58074-6
Jamie CrippsWCE1018274-8
Ben BrownMELB81.5647410
Jack GrahamRICH907674-2
Harris AndrewsBL88.569745
Bailey BanfieldFRE98.58074-6
Jack HigginsSTK69577316
Ned McHenryADEL9373730
Will PhillipsNMFC80.570733
Jordan RougheadCOLL95.57473-1
Tom BarrassWCE8972731
Rowan MarshallSTK957873-5
Josh ThomasCOLL79617211
Adam TreloarWB93.57372-1
Jacob WeiteringCARL75.5617211
Riley BonnerPORT927472-2
Hayden YoungFRE87.571710
Max HolmesGEEL85.570711
Dan HanneberySTK8469712
Jimmy WebsterSTK7864717
Devon SmithESS877471-3
Sam FrostHAW97.57671-5
Bailey WilliamsWB94.57471-3
Jy SimpkinNMFC8069712
Oliver HanrahanHAW92.57270-2
Tobe WatsonFRE887170-1
Sam WicksSYD7464706
Dion PrestiaRICH104.58870-18
Jack NewnesCARL947670-6
Lachie SchultzFRE81.566693
Curtis TaylorNMFC89.57869-9
Tanner BruhnGWS867369-4
David MackayADEL78.562697
Levi CasboultCARL7560699
Andrew McPhersonADEL89.57069-1
Jack ScrimshawHAW1038169-12
Sam DraperESS71.561687
Tarryn ThomasNMFC887668-8
Brad SheppardWCE967868-10
Luke DunstanSTK84.57068-2
Alex PearceFRE71.5586810
Callum Coleman-JonesRICH958067-13
Tim MembreySTK79.565672
Tom PhillipsHAW8063674
Lachie AshGWS917766-11
James JordonMELB88.56966-3
James StewartESS897666-10
James AishFRE89.57266-6
Callum WilkieSTK816766-1
Darcy MacPhersonGCFC71.561665
Lochie O'BrienCARL83.56765-2
Nick BlakeySYD75.565650
Xavier DuursmaPORT7762653
Daniel RichBL90.57065-5
Dylan GrimesRICH99.58465-19
Tom ClureyPORT81.56665-1
Nakia CockatooBL896965-4
Tom ColeWCE1038365-18
Zach SprouleGWS847165-6
Harry MorrisonHAW836564-1
Nick MurrayADEL80.563641
Oliver HenryCOLL61.5486416
Robbie TarrantNMFC74.56564-1
Chris MayneCOLL91.57164-7
Michael HibberdMELB836564-1
Alex Neal-BullenMELB84.56664-2
Griffin LogueFRE897264-8
Jarrod BerryBL94.57364-9
Mitch CrowdenFRE6754639
Kysaiah PickettMELB907163-8
Jeremy SharpGCFC816963-6
Braeden CampbellSYD776763-4
Luke McDonaldNMFC817063-7
Ben DavisADEL826463-1
Lewis MelicanSYD796863-5
Ryan GarthwaiteRICH63.554639
Tom DoedeeADEL876862-6
Miles BergmanPORT74.560622
Matt RowellGCFC776662-4
Mitch GeorgiadesPORT68.555627
Jake BoweyMELB90.57162-9
Shane MumfordGWS816862-6
Lewis YoungWB897062-8
Jy FarrarGCFC71.561621
Nathan MurphyCOLL806261-1
Riley ThilthorpeADEL72.557614
Ryan LesterBL927161-10
Will Hoskin-ElliottCOLL826461-3
James HarmesMELB7861610
Josh DunkleyWB7760611
Harrison PettyMELB81.56460-4
Jack ZiebellNMFC66.558602
Adam KennedyGWS796760-7
Jamie ElliottCOLL866760-7
Mitch McGovernCARL816560-5
Aaron FrancisESS756460-4
Cooper SharmanSTK6856604
Luke FoleyWCE65.553596
Kane LambertRICH64.555594
Zach GuthrieGEEL77.56458-6
Dane RampeSYD77.56758-9
Tom CutlerESS746358-5
Alec WatermanESS56485810
Shane McAdamADEL61.5485810
Brad CloseGEEL6554584
Josh CorbettGCFC51.5445713
Wil PowellGCFC6656571
Charlie CurnowCARL61.550577
Lachlan MurphyADEL6551565
Oscar AllenWCE756156-5
Max KingSTK746156-5
Liam StockerCARL67.554562
Charlie BallardGCFC62.553563
Alex SextonGCFC65.556560
Josh HoneyCARL5847558
Jordon ButtsADEL71.55655-1
Sam TaylorGWS69.55955-4
Zac SmithGCFC675754-3
Daniel LloydGWS5446548
Lachie HunterWB755954-5
Paddy DowCARL6552531
Brandon WalkerFRE72.55953-6
Ed CurnowCARL72.55853-5
Jack BowesGCFC665653-3
Josh DaicosCOLL72.55652-4
Jake SteinGWS54.546526
Thomson DowRICH6252520
Shane EdwardsRICH52.544528
Travis ColyerFRE5645527
Aaron NaughtonWB58.546515
Keidean ColemanBL796151-10
Jed BewsGEEL57.547514
Jesse HoganGWS56.548513
Chris BurgessGCFC625350-3
Bailey ScottNMFC55.548502
Lachlan ShollADEL62.549501
Ryan BurtonPORT62.550500
Ben McKayNMFC42364913
Joel SmithMELB51.540499
Connor IdunGWS625249-3
Easton WoodWB806349-14
Dom SheedWCE59.548491
Chayce JonesADEL56.544484
Jason JohannisenWB52.541487
Jackson NelsonWCE5746482
Andrew McGrathESS57.54948-1
Finlay MacraeCOLL735747-10
Archie PerkinsESS47.541476
Alex KeathWB53.542475
Matthew ParkerRICH62.55347-6
Harry SchoenbergADEL634946-3
Tyler BrockmanHAW49.539467
Ben AinsworthGCFC75.56446-18
Tom SparrowMELB655146-5
Darragh JoyceSTK4638457
Joel JeffreyGCFC42.536459
Errol GuldenSYD605245-7
Robbie FoxSYD55.54845-3
Sean LemmensGCFC4639456
Adam SaadCARL61.55045-5
Bradley HillSTK54.545450
Trent DumontNMFC716245-17
Tom PapleySYD47.541454
Lloyd MeekFRE574644-2
Bailey SmithWB614844-4
Riley GarciaWB4636448
Conor NashHAW56.544440
Connor DownieHAW574544-1
Jacob TownsendGCFC584944-5
Cody WeightmanWB44.535427
Jack RiewoldtRICH4841421
Mark BlicavsGEEL625142-9
Sam SwitkowskiFRE534342-1
Jack GinnivanCOLL40314110
Kyle HartiganHAW58.54641-5
Darcy GardinerBL47.537414
Brett BewleyFRE63.55141-10
Trent BiancoCOLL41.532408
Trey RuscoeCOLL37294011
Dylan ClarkeESS59.55140-11
Nick LarkeyNMFC474139-2
Rhyan MansellRICH47.54039-1
Brody MihocekCOLL5039390
Nick CoffieldSTK504138-3
Josh TreacyFRE504038-2
Sam ReidSYD44.53938-1
Lachie PlowmanCARL44.536382
Corey DurdinCARL38.531376
Jake MelkshamMELB34.5273710
Daniel McKenzieSTK44.537370
Brandan ParfittGEEL463837-1
Tom WilliamsonCARL57.54637-9
Luke EdwardsWCE594836-12
Jake KolodjashnijGEEL41.534362
James PeatlingGWS534536-9
Mitch HannanWB48.53835-3
Aiden BonarNMFC38.533352
Charlie CombenNMFC40.535350
Jack PetruccelleWCE48.53934-5
Nathan VardyWCE33.527347
Brandon StarcevichBL544233-9
Zaine CordyWB473733-4
Colin O'RiordanSYD32.528324
Brayden CookADEL41.53331-2
Eddie BettsCARL24.5203111
Dean KentSTK36.530311
Ryan ByrnesSTK47.53930-9
Liam HenryFRE383129-2
Kayne TurnerNMFC58.55128-23
Beau McCreeryCOLL42.53327-6
Angus BrayshawMELB29.523274
Laitham VandermeerWB342726-1
Tom FullartonBL403126-5
Maurice RioliRICH20.517225
Brodie KempCARL2419201
Jaxon PriorBL2620200
John NobleCOLL32.52518-7
Ben KingGCFC22.51918-1
Zac LangdonWCE241915-4
Hugo RalphsmithRICH12.511154
Connor BlakelyFRE241915-4
Esava RatugoleaGEEL22.51914-5
Sam MayesPORT28.52314-9
Dan ButlerSTK1512142
Tim KellyWCE161312-1
Rory AtkinsGCFC18.5168-8
Oscar ClavarinoSTK-2-235
Elliott HimmelbergADEL3231
Lachie YoungNMFC0000
Jake RiccardiGWS0000
Josh MorrisHAW0000
Martin GleesonESS0000
Aaron vandenBergMELB0000
Anthony ScottWB0000
Jake AartsRICH0000
Rhys MathiesonBL0000
Sam Petrevski-SetonCARL0000
Quinton NarkleGEEL220-2



Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.


Download the full breakdowns:

Round 22 Summary (General Categories)

Round 22 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)


Download the time-based scoring breakdown:

Round 22 Fine-Grained Scores



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2 thoughts on “Scoring Anomalies – Round 22”

    1. Thanks, Alza! It’s always nice to hear people say they’ve enjoyed something you’ve produced.



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