Team Reveal – Father Dougal

Written by Father Dougal on March 18 2019

This year’s team reveal is going to be a lot easier since last year I didn’t actually have a team selected when I put my team reveal together!

I already wrote about how my last season went, but to sum up, started well, ended less well. The main thing I am learned which applies to initial selection is to avoid dodgy cows. Better a loophole or pseudo cow than another Garlett.

So, following my own rules of cow-quisition I’m starting with the cows.

Defense has an ok set of cows:  Collins, Scrimshaw, Clark, Hore, and Duursma. The more expensive cows are annoying, but not so much I won’t take them. I think they can all make their $150k if no weird stuff happens. (Which it will)

Mid cows are also ok: Walsh, Butters, Scott, Constable, Hind, and Atkins. Hoping they are all named, Walsh is expensive, but seems likely to make his money, and might even do decently point wise.

Ruck: Wow, so disappointing! I was sure there would be at least one cow I could take in the rucks, but nope, none. Going with a super cheap loophole. Want one that is DDP in case I need to bring in a back up ruck at some point. Most likely Bines from West Coast.

Forwards: Hmm this looks familiar. Very few forward cows. Wonder if that is the new normal? Setterfield, Drew, Petruccelle. That’s it for guys I like. There are other warm bodies I could use, but I regretted putting in warm bodies last year, and so I am going to try and stick to the three I like.

Moving on, Are there any non-rookie cows or cow-like objects? Why yes, quite a few! Are their any I like enough to take? Yes, Darcy Moore. I think he can make $150k and I don’t want to try and fit in 5 forward premiums, so he’s in. Roberton is not available, which sucks in many ways, and there are no other low $200k players I like. Cousins doesn’t thrill me. I can see him making his cash, but I don’t feel that good about him, but, he needs to be kept in mind just in case. I don’t like him enough to start with him. Ridley, looking at his history, I worry won’t make his cash. You could put “But he scored well in the JLT” on the tombstones of many supercoach seasons. I don’t hate him, and can even imagine getting forced into him if team drops are crazy enough, but I’m good with the five defender cows I picked.

Are there any players you are mad to not take? Dangerfield forward. If you don’t have him as F1, well, big mistake. He’s the only player I would describe as a lock this year.

So, that means I now need 3 defenders, 5 mids, 2 rucks, and 3 forwards.

In theory all should be guns, but cash says some will be bargains. Are there any really obvious bargains? Oh yes. Zac Williams for very sure. Tom Liberatore for mostly sure. Brodie Smith for probably sure. I already wrote about them in my Keepers and Bargains post, which was not by coincidence.

So, that means I now need 1 defender, 4 mids, 2 rucks, and 3 forwards.

I want these to be premiums. Along with Danger that’s 11, which is low, although Williams I think will be 12. I’d like 13, but, lack of cows. Oh well. Maybe Libba or Brodie Smith? Not counting on them.

Whitfield for the defender. He is playing mids, which I like. Might be a bit underpriced. Laird is at his price, and with so many good crows I wonder if there will be enough point to go around there. Lloyd is also at top price. Sicily I liked until the “swinging him forward” thing, plug flog. Simpson also top price, and never know when age will catch up to him. Will find out and then bring him in if it has not.

First three Mids are easy. Cripps, Oliver, and Macrae. I think they will all still be top 8, and they are all under 25 and thus have space to improve. I suspect at least two of them will post a higher average this year than last. All captain options. I love having captain options. Holding off on the last mid spot until I see how much cash I have left.

Rucks. Grundy and Gawn. I can’t see it worth the risk to go elsewhere. I had planned a post all about ruck options, but then reality happened and they all went away, other than Goldstein who I think would be ok, but I still think will be third best. I can see taking him, but I’m sticking to the obvious guys.

Forwards, oh need three of them. Heeny, Tim Kelly, Dunkley. Heeney is pretty obvious; close to a lock. Tim Kelly I expect to play a lot in the mids and to be motivated to have a good season on his contract year. All the options after that have risks. Had D. Smith for a while but just not sure of role anymore. Of course any Bulldog could have role issues, but I feel like Dunkley is likely to play a lot in the mids, and up his average at least a little, and maybe a lot.

That leaves me with $542,500 for a mid. Not bad. M Crouch is out on price, although I am not as bullish on him as many. A good case could be made that he will jump into the elite, and had I more cash I would have to think about him more. But, I do not, and I do not want to make changes to fit him in. At least not until teams drop. His brother has never managed more than 17 matches in a season and his best average was 96.2, and he is already 25. Not tempting at all. High risk for the possible reward. I like but have qualms about Zorko, and Merrett. I think Jack Steele is the most likely breakout in that price range, and he is 23 and has put up two years of 90+ averages already. Brayshaw is the same age but has only one year of 90+ averages. So, going with Steele, which leaves me with $29,900.

Byes, Time to check the byes. Not bad as it turns out. Line balance is meh in front and back, but team balance is ok. Nothing that scares me enough to want to make changes.

 

So:

Def: Whitfield, Z Williams, B Smith, S Collins, Scrimshaw, Clark, (Hore Duursma)

Mids: Macrae, Oliver, Cripps, Steele, Liberatore, Walsh, Butters, Scott, Constable Hind, Atkins

Rucks: Grundy, Gawn, (Bines)

Fwd: Dangerfield, Heeney, T Kelly, Dunkley, Moore, Setterfield, (Drew, Petruccelle)

Cash left = $29,900

 

In picture form:

Once the first week is done I will come back and update this with what my actual starting team was, since I expect team drops to mess up something!

 

 

So, what do you think?

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Thanks for reading!

 

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43 thoughts on “Team Reveal – Father Dougal”

  1. I can’t believe it. We only have two different selections across the entire 30.
    Not only that, but my thought process was frighteningly similar.
    * scuttles off to consider other options, to avoid shame or embarrassment at having SUCH a similar team to Father!

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      1. Believe me, I think you may be slightly stronger and please don’t laugh!
        I don’t trust Libba (SERIOUS injury history) and I don’t trust Mr Magnets, so while I would love to start Dunkley, I just can’t bring myself to do it!
        So, I’ve gone Matt Crouch. He gives me a warm feeling after picking him up back half of last year.
        Now here’s the silly one … I’ve picked Sam Weideman at F4. Melbourne’s centre clearance stats from last year are by far superior to the rest. Getting elite service from the best midfield in the comp under the new 6-6-6 rule has me licking my lips. His last 5 game ave. (Excl. JLT) is 72, including a 118 in finals. I think he’s priced just above his floor but could pump out some monster scores.
        Predicted average: 75-80
        Expected cash: $140k
        Yes, it’s risky and out there, but I do think decent key FWDs in good sides with decent service (eg Darling) are going to benefit 5-10pts under the new rules (6-6-6 and in the back).
        Thoughts?! Feel free to laugh 😉

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        1. I hear your logic. I just can’t select wiedeman though. In a way, this 6.6.6 rule could assist any sized forward in the comp. If there is a mismatch with any of these 6 forwards, perhaps teams will try and isolate that a bit? Jamie Elliot is undersized and great overhead, I won’t pick him but I’d rather him than wiederman for that type of pick

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        2. Great Read

          Hi Father Dougul &Allsaints. I am also thinking Vandenberg F3.

          Would appreciate your thoughts and that of the members on my 2 FWD Line options.

          1.Danger Heeny Kelly Worpel Moore Setter (3rooks WCE lad Drew or Balta)
          2. Danger Heeny Vandenberg Weiderman Moore Setter ( same rooks as above)

          Both structures allow 5 primo in the mids.

          Gawn Goldy in the rucks.

          All suggestions welcome.

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          1. I’d somehow want to go up or down from Vandenberg or Worpel. But Vandenberg is an interesting pick. I don’t know much about him.

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        3. I think the weed-wacker is a much larger risk then Libba is. But, you have to go with the risks you are comfortable taking.

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  2. I like the team. Do you feel that you are one premium short? Sticking to the cow philosophy though, the prems you have are rock solid.
    I have toyed with a similar midfield structure with the big 3 and dusty. And just felt one premium short because of it.
    Thanks for posting and explaining your logic in picking your team mate

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    1. I do think I am one short, but I cannot find a way around being one short that I like more. I’d rather be a premo short with the premiums I do have being the ones I really want.

      You are most welcome!

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  3. Wow, mines fairly similar, same structure but I’ve keep $80k back in case the Smith / Libba needs an early correction!
    Went M. Crouch instead of Steele, and Mundy / Smith instead of Dunkley / Kelly.

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  4. On the subject of rookies:
    No
    No Gibbons – the Garlett of 2019 for you?
    No Parker – good js, is it that fwd pockets suck?

    And Macrae – so expensive! The Reverend must indeed be a man of faith for that investment.

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    1. No Gibbons – the Garlett of 2019 for you? – Exactly
      No Parker – good js, is it that fwd pockets suck? – Yes, although he will be first rookie back in if someone misses out

      And Macrae – so expensive! The Reverend must indeed be a man of faith for that investment. – I think his True Level of Ability is 115 or more. Young guy improving rather than old guy getting lucky. He could have been really lucky, but he put up too many very high scores for me to think that it was a fluke season.

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      1. I think you might be right on Gibbons come to think of it – that 60 in JLT 1 looks unlikely considering 3 goals a game is wildly unprobable – far more likely he holds down that 30/40 avg – Switching him to Hind with a nicer SC role.

        In related news, your most notable departure that I missed the first time is Burgess. DPP, allows swing with Moore but more importantly as far as rookies go he has decent js and scores for a cow – his ownership is stratospheric. No go on him?

        Love the team too, Father. We differ on the field by just 3 players; I love Hurn as D2 instead of Dunkley at F3. Crouch and Neale take the place of Macrae and Steele – but you have me thinking about Macrae – love me a captain.

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        1. Burgess is not worth it for the DDP to me unless he is also going to make money. I am not sure he is. But probably the 2nd guy in if needed. Depending on where I suppose. I worry I will end up with Gibbons, but since he plays first that would be hard, thinking about it. I do not to game out some possibilities…

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      2. And Macrae : Thats the very reason I didnt pick him and you did father. He jumped from 106 in 20017 to 127 last year. No consistent history of scoring 110+ before that. I believe that this year with the Bont back to form and Libba in the middle, it would head south. Agree , Still somewhere around 110-115 but I want to see how much his price would drop by.
        40 touches in the JLT against Gold Coast doesnt make me change my mind. ( I still remember Josh Kennedy, Beams, of 2012)

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        1. Is there is history of players who have had a season as good as his while still 23-24 who then dropped back down to a lower level for the rest of their career, aside from injury? I see him as having had his first big year. If his score was a huge 10% luck that puts his TLA at 115.5 and that would likely being go up at his age. A more normal high luck of 5% gives him a TLA of 121. His role is the least likely to change of their mids, I think. But, you never know.

          Good luck to you as well!

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          1. Dayne Beams was 22 in 2012 when he averaged 122.9. Rocky I am not sure, I am not saying it wouldnt happen. Abblett, Pendles, Fyfe have done it. I am just saying that history is pointing to a correction downward. Only Abblett when on increasing his average. Gazza!!!

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  5. Solid team father. I love the forward line. The players we have in common we got there with a similar theory.
    Thanks for sharing, Good luck this year.

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  6. Love your work.

    Working from back to front, I end up with a similar team – your logic resonates…

    But once Grundy and Gawn are locked in, what becomes the plan if one goes down…
    – Long term injury, sure, trade out… Can afford next best
    – 3 to 5 week injury, you have to trade down and settle for next best even if they come back (unless you double trade to go back up)?
    – 1 to 2 week injury? Ouch. Need to force a non structured adjustment which will burn at least 1 trade and likely ruin a potential cow culling trade / opportunity.

    What are the odds neither Grundy and Gawn miss a game? Or that both might miss one or two each? Or worse?

    Trying to understand if it’s better to play a Lobb or Lycett as Forward back up. Won’t make any money, but maybe ok as your last upgrade (unlikely to happen in reailty) to full premium.

    Save a trade, avoid unplanned trading, ok scores…

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    1. You actually don’t waste a trade if you make the R/F player your upgrade for a rookie if Grundy/Gawn miss a game. You just need the first 5-6 games out of Grundy and Gawn for it to work so your cows have matured.

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  7. Allsaints took the words right out of me….This is so close to my team and the reasoning youve used is like you read my mind.

    Only difference is you have an extra premium forward (Kelly) to my midfield (Neale). With the extra coin you have paired Macrae with Steele and I’ve gone Dusty and Crouch

    Also, M3 I have Mundy to your Dunkley.

    Rookies are eerily similar

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  8. I don’t mind that setup. Both Cripps and Macrae. Bang! Only suggestion I could have is putting Moore in defence in place of rookie. And have Burgess to swing. After jlt, do we really want Burgess though? Very solid line up nonetheless

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  9. Sounds like Scrimshaw is unlikely for round 1. If he misses will you pick someone like Burgess or will you follow your gospel that “Better a loophole or pseudo cow than another Garlett” and pick a loophole down back?

    I’m personally running Tobe Watson as a loophole option for mid/def as I think this will benefit me more than running Burgess.

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    1. Based on the current situation, I took out Scrimshaw , moved Moore back in his place, added Balta in Moore’s place.

      Thinking about replacing Hind with Parket via Drew’s DPP. If Balta not named then I just bring in Drew for him and keep Hind.

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    1. Lack of contested ball with the 666 rule. I don’t dislike him, but Steele is a more SC friendly type player, and I only have room for one. I could be all wrong, as I think Merrett is really good and should bounce back.

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  10. Macrae was SC’s lovechild last year and Bont was the year before. Similar ages and I didn’t see Bont backing it up last year, clearly those at CD didn’t start with him last year.If Macrae goes out of favor, for whatever reason, then he’ll drop a stack of cash. Conspiracy theories aside, you’ve got factors such as a hard tag,Mr Magnets, Libba and the new rules such as limited runners. Like Bont before him he’ll have to work a lot harder to get a half decent ave. Upgrade target for me.

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  11. Nice lineup FD. I’m not sure about all those backline rookies, but we’ll see what happens. Love that forward line though, mind if I copy???

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  12. Joestar, I started with the Bont last year as a non brainer and missed Macrae. This year I put a solid research into every player I picked (comparative data, injury, position, history etc… ) And as father Dougal said, Macrae is around $115 points. He is priced above that, which means he is likely to drop. I reckon I’ll get him for cheaper post byes. cows are expensives so I need the money now. Remember the Bont used to get a point for being near the ball? Macrae got the same in Adelaide in the rain. I watched the game live , couldnt believe the scoring.

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    1. You do realize that Macrae had 36 touches, 25 contested, 13 tackles, 10 clearances, at a crazy 72% disposal efficiency with ZERO clangers, the disposal efficiency for the game was 53%, effective contested ball is pure gold in SC, nothing wrong with that score. Hahaha he is too expensive for me though.

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      1. Yes Dann, they were the recorded stats for that game, which is exactly my point.Nobody that watched that game witnessed that sort of performance, by all reports he was fumbling with the best of them in the atrocious conditions.(understandably).Thus the moniker SC lovechild.Perhaps it just my biased eyes but I’m not the only one that thinks this sort of thing happens and I think SC talk had a weekly post for people to air their grievances. If he doesn’t get that sort of favor this year then you might find that that crazy DE not be so crazy.

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  13. Jeannot, I think that was the game I was thinking of, my spidey senses are thinking Yeo will be the love child this year, it seems that it applies to those that lose DPP from the year before and are now pure mids.

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  14. I did forget to say that I do like the side FD, just prefer those at 500k+ that I think can improve Merret and Steele head that list.

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    1. Merrett for me just isn’t a great SC fit, too uncontested, to many short kicks at not a great efficiency, kinda similar to Matt Crouch only Crouch get’s more of it, on the plus side he does tackle.

      I like Steele he is a good SC fit just not sure he’s ready for that BIG leap could see him going 105 which would be a good result,

      Personally think Dusty and Crouch are a fair way ahead of Merrett at around the same price.

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  15. Nice side FD. Mine is reasonably similar but defence is a little stronger. Your structure will pay off handsomely if Smith fires. Just wondering if you or anyone has wondered what will happen if Gawn or Grundy either get one week suspension, or have to sit out or are managed for a week. Is there a back up plan? I’m thinking of Westoff and whilst he might score a little less now he is not rucking Ryder is susceptible to injury and the security of cover for Grundy just might make the difference in overall and not waste a trade.
    Thoughts FD? Others?

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    1. If they go out early I’m stuffed. I’ll end up with a F/R swingman in the forward line to use with the F/R loophole at R3.

      I just could not fit in a backup this year. If only Mason Cox were still and F/R…..

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