The +10 Club #1

Written by Thommo on February 1 2019

Every season we search for the one or two premium players who will jump in average sharply and set our teams aside from the competition. Picking the same premium midfielders as everyone else can be handy for winning your Supercoach Leagues but to win the overall prize you need an edge on the competition.

Last season Jack Macrae and Brodie Grundy started in barely any teams but if you had taken the punt on them you would have had a massive advantage. The remarkable thing was, both were handy premiums just below the elite level and at the right age to break-out yet I can’t remember a single team starting with them.

So this season I thought I would look at those players just below the elite level who look primed for a break-out of at least 10 points or are under-priced due to injury. These players will join the inaugural +10 Club: I won’t guarantee a break-out but I’m hopeful!

The first inductee will be: The Bont!

Why Bont? Why?

Name: Marcus Bontempelli
Team: Western Bulldogs
Position: MID
Price: $564,600
Bye round: 12
2018 average: 104.0
2018 games played: 19

Why will the Bont improve by 10 points?

If you examine the talented Marcus Bontempelli in isolation he ticks all the boxes used to predict a break-out into the elite category. He is a high draft pick entering his sixth season at the tender age of 23. He has maintained an average between 103 and 107ppg for four straight seasons. He has an attractive combination of skillful ball use and an inside midfield game that suits the Supercoach scoring system, as does his ability to kick goals when resting forward. He finished last season well with an average Supercoach score of 116ppg in the final month due to a lift in his average disposal count to 30.75 per game compared with his season average of 24 disposals per game. When he scores over 100 points in a match he generally crosses the mark easily, with 64% (or 33 from 51) of his tonnes going over 120 points.

And even if the Bont struggles to lift his average by the necessary 5-10 points per match to reach the elite, he does add some value by being durable. In 2018 he missed 3 games but 2 of those were to have his appendix removed and before 2018 he hadn’t missed a match since 2015.

He really should be a safe, and unique, selection for 2019…

Why won’t he improve?
Mr Magnets! Yes, I am attempting to get that name to stick!

As I said, the Bont should be a safe selection, but Bevo’s coaching style creates an unknown variable in to the equation.

The Bulldogs have struggled to find tall forwards that are fit and firing so Bevo is forever throwing his midfielders into a makeshift forward line. Unfortunately being an over-sized midfielder at 193cm tall, Bontempelli is also very capable forward. So, while he can sometimes save his Supercoach score with 2-3 goals while playing forward, his disposal count tends to suffer when he gets caught forward for too long.

To be fair to Bevo, that is not the only reason the Bont has struggled to lift his Supercoach average, with his ball-winning ability sometimes a problem. Unlike the other uber-premiums, Bontempelli has never consistently racked up big disposal numbers, only three time collecting 30+ disposals in 2018. He did however lift his disposal count from his season average of 24 disposals per match to 30.75 disposals in that hot streak over the final month. Hopefully that is a sign of a change in his game style?


Like most of the football world, I believe Marcus Bontempelli can be an elite midfielder. When left to hunt the ball he can gather enough of the footy to consistently score over 100ppg and as mentioned above, when he tonnes up he generally scores between 120 and 140 points, reason enough to lift his average to 110+. The only question is whether Bevo will leave him in the midfield for long enough to take the next step.

After stagnating for a while, his big finish to 2018 indicates that the Bont is ready to score 110-115ppg in 2019. And, worst case, if he happens to stagnate at 103-107 points, it won’t destroy your season!

Will Marcus Bontempelli improve by 10 points in 2019?

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20 thoughts on “The +10 Club #1”

  1. Love these articles Thommo, makes a lot of sense. The new rules seem to be addressing congestion , 6x6x6 rule, the new ruck rule, and the kick out rule. I’ve just heard an interview with Clarko who seems to think that 2 rucks will be the new vogue.Will these changes benefit the Bont. Seems to me that those team’s with speed will benefit the most.


    1. Thanks Joestar. It will be interesting to see if the rules have the intended effect or if coaches just find ways to circumvent changes. The AFL are rushing changes in way too quickly without real research into outcomes.

      I hadn’t considered this before but if they do get their reduced congestion will it devalue contested ball players who lack pace?


  2. I’m not happy with you Thommo. Bont has been in my team since day 1. He was to be my POD … currently sitting in 3% of teams … and you go and spill the beans ….

    Great write up … unfortunately … 🙂


          1. And I’ll be covering both of them in my Elite Numbers series as Yeo achieved the premium classification and Steele is 1 of the 4 Saints players I have compiled stats on that failed to meet the benchmarks in their respective positions.


          2. Yeo is on the list but not actually done yet whereas Jack Steele write up is done. Currently he’s even in my team – I’m a big fan.

            Yeo is an interesting one because of his inconsistent scoring.


  3. I voted no but I would have voted no to Jack Macrae this time last year too….It’s very convincing, I reckon if Doggies had of drafted a forward or two like Freo, I’d be all over it.


  4. The Bont use to get 5 points for tying up his shoelaces or flicking his hair back. Until he gets that sweet sweet CD love again, it’s a no from me.

    But is great value for his potential – all he needs to do it remove those 40-70 scores (3 last year) he drops.


    1. Unless the Western Bulldogs return to the top 8 I don’t see Bontempelli reaching the 110+ range.

      Wins Avg since 2015: 113.41 from 46 (15/46 below 100, 23/46 120+)

      Losses Avg since 2015: 94.76 from 37 (23/37 below 100, 7/37 120+)

      But apart from that a fantastic idea for a series Thommo and will be eagerly awaiting the other players analysed for the 10+ club.


  5. Thanks Thommo.

    This is a great concept. Being a Hawks man ,I will assume you have included JOM in your coming 10+ reviews.

    Any chance you could just let that one slip through to the keeper?


  6. Great write up Thommo and from all of the contributor’s and writers with this articles this year.

    I thought what a bargain the Bont is at 530k and went to lock him in until I went into SuperCoach and he is priced at 564k.
    Come on Thommo are you are still too focused on BBL SuperCoach?



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