After losing his dual position status he won’t be popular, but today’s inductee in to The +10 Club is a certainty to take the next step in 2019.
But does that mean we should select Angus Brayshaw?
Name: Angus Brayshaw
Bye round: 13
2018 average: 97ppg
2018 games played: 19
Why will Angus Brayshaw improve by 10 points?
After missing the first three matches of the 2018 season, Brayshaw’s Supercoach season started slowly playing between a half-forward flank and the wing. From Rounds 4 to 8 he averaged just 78.8ppg from 22.6 disposals and 2.4 tackles per match, the low score mostly due to his outside game and lack of kicking efficiency.
As the season continued Brayshaw was increasingly rotated through the centre bounces as an inside midfielder and started gathering more contested footy and clearances, averaging 103.5 SC points per game from 25 disposals and 5 tackles per match for the remainder of the season. Even more impressive was his post bye form where he again increased his disposal count to 27.8 per match and lifted his SC average to 106.6ppg.
He appears to be firmly ensconced in the Dee’s midfield now and he has the knack of racking up huge disposal counts. Due to his only average efficiency rating, he is also incredibly unlikely to receive a tag.
With a full preseason under his belt in 2019, he should push his average to at least 107ppg and could overtake Clayton Oliver as the main Supercoach midfielder at Melbourne. The way he racked up Brownlow votes late in 2018, he could even be a smokey for this year’s Brownlow medal.
Why won’t he improve?
Brayshaw is a lot like Dane Swan, just not as good (yet). He racks up huge disposal counts but gets penalized for his kicking efficiency. Swanny was still elite, but across his career he couldn’t compete with Pendlebury in Supercoach due to his kicking. The same can be said of Angus Brayshaw when compared to a player like Marcus Bontempelli. Brayshaw averaged 26 disposals per game in 2018 yet only averaged 97 SC points, while Marcus Bontempelli averaged 24 disposals per game yet managed to average 103 SC points. True, the Bont kicks more goals than most midfielders, but unless Brayshaw cleans up his act or starts sneaking forward for a goal or two, he will struggled to step into the elite category.
This was obvious when you compare his ceiling in Supercoach to AFL Fantasy or Dreamteam. In Fantasy, Brayshaw actually peaked at a high score of 166 points (from 37 possessions, 14 marks in Round 10) but his high score was only 130 in Supercoach in that same game. This discrepancy was present most weeks and led to a season average of 103 ppg in Fantasy, 6 ppg higher than in Supercoach.
The final knock on Brayshaw is just that; he can’t be knocked. At least, not in the head. He suffered too many concussions for one man in 2017 (4 I believe) and any further head knocks could, and should, lead to an extended holiday. Not what you want from a POD in your midfield, especially when the Dees have multiple midfield options just waiting for their chance at the centre bounces.
Maybe even 110ppg if Brayshaw can improve his efficiency yet I would not suggest that you select him. Yes, Brayshaw will have a 10ppg jump and deserves to be a member of the +10 Club, but he is likely to get caught in limbo where he is not quite an uber-premium and you will waste a trade upgrading him. Think Adam Treloar circa 2017 who racked up 30 possessions regularly but too often failed to score 100 points and frustrated the hell out of his owners.
Brayshaw was a great premium when he had defensive status but I don’t think he is good enough to earn a midfield spot in Supercoach this season. Definitely consider him in AFL Fantasy or Dreamteam if you partake of those forms of fantasy footy.
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21 thoughts on “The +10 Club #6”
Love these articles Thommo , keep up the great work , it’s a no for me, the kid’s a gun but only 1 bad headknock away from hanging up the caper.
Hopefully he’s over the concussions but I still won’t select him.
I think Viney coming back in could definitely impact his scoring but one to watch!
I reckon he’ll continue playing an inside mid role.
Yep. Think Viney is more likely to have a negative impact on Harmes’ output.
AF only selection for me efficiency ruins his cores for sc =[
Yep. Give him another year and he should sort that out for 2020.
Hasn’t he had a pretty significant injury interrupted pre-season?
That’s news to me. He’s named in today’s practice match squad…
And has been spotted all over the park. Off HB, through the MIDdle and in the pocket snapping a goal!
If DPP, then yep. But no. Prefer other MID options around his price.
Menegola – DPP
Heeney – DPP
Dunkley – DPP
Great write up Thommo!
I managed to make my way down to Olympic Park this morning and watched the Pies vs Demons practice match.
Brayshaw was impressive early gathering disposals and clearances early in the game. As the game went on he still found a bit of the ball but he was caught with the ball a few times.
Gawn was BOG giving the Dees mids 1st use as well as winning the ball around the ground. Gawn did give away 3FA in ruck contests. It was close to an 80/20 split with Preuss when sharing ruck duties. Gawn spent time on the bench and up forward when Preuss spent his 5 minutes of the Qtr in the ruck.
My early thoughts are that Gawn is just as good a R1 option as Grundy and possibly still worth slotting in at R2.
I think Preuss with get a crack at the start of the season up forward as he is big bodied impressive aerial threat that kicked 2 goals today with one on an angle from long range.
Gawn might actually even spend more time on the ground as he could be rested forward at times rather than on the bench.
I got to the ground early and watched Grundy join the Rehab group and he played in a 4 player Match simulation. Grundy finished off with run thru’s up and down the ground with Wells and then ran a couple of laps. Grundy is still not fully fit with his toe injury hampering his pre-season and was labouring a bit hunched over and taking in deep breaths during Match-Sim , run thru’s and laps when trailing Wells.
It is for this reason that I think Grundy could start the season slower than Gawn and be rested longer on the bench than last year or even up forward more. Therefore, Grundy’s price might be the first out of the two key rucks to fall.
Only a few rookies took to the field. Marty Hore was the most impressive and moved the ball forward well with his left foot.
Hore positions himself well in body contests and hit contests hard to make some good spoils.
Isaac Quaynor only took to the field in the 2nd half and has pace to burn making space marking a couple of times and used his few kicks well hitting teammates on the chest.
Quaynor is a work in progress though as he was brushed off too easily on the half back flank which resulted in the Demons moving the ball forward and kicking a goal. Quaynor is not renowned for his tackling averaging under 2 a game in the TAC and is small and light framed.
Quaynor still needs to adapt to the speed of the game at AFL level. At his inflated price I do not think he is a SuperCoach starting option unless he shows more in the JLT. Quaynor is also unlikely to get a game in Round 1 and if he does he might struggle to hold his spot.
Tom Sparrow $117,300 Mid also only played in the 2nd half showing a bit hitting the contests hard and kicked a nice goal on angle from 35-40 metres out in the last Qtr.
For the record Melbourne won by 4 goals – 11.6.72 to 7.6.48.
Jamie Elliott kicked the first 2 goals of the game from marks on the lead. Beams also kicked 2 goals with one a ripper left foot snap sharking the ball from the ruck contest and another long range goal from the Half Forward Flank.
Nice stuff TDA, Grundy has stated he’ll only play JLT2 so I’ll wait for that to make a call. I am thinking of starting Preuss at just above rookie price.
Thanks Thommo , however, not exactly sure how to take your appreciation of my write up as I have been told nice is only a word that should be used when pertaining to food.
Sorry, my bad. Tasty write-up TDA!
That’s better Thommo and it has a much sweeter ring about it.
I forgot to add Darcy Moore in my write up.
Darcy Moore @$239k is a high priced rookie or cheap mid pricer who a few coaches are keen on . Moore went down early
in the 1st Qtr with a corkie to the hip and iced it on the bench. When he came back on in the 2nd Qtr. after the injury scare he did not attack a couple of contests lacking confidence. As the Quarter went on he gained in confidence and made a good spoil on Gawn in the Fwd line and then took the kick in and followed up on the wing with a mark.
It was the 3rd Quarter when Moore came into his own gathering at least 8 disposals with a couple of intercept contested marks but he did let himself down kicking the ball out on the full twice.
I still think it is a ballsy move to start Moore in your starting line up with his injury history with him going down 4 times early in games last year.
Agreed – if I was going to pick an undervalued Pie I’d pick Jamie Elliott over Moore. Elliott when fit is a historic 75-80 average, Moore is not even close to that. For only 50k extra I’d prefer the increased confidence.
However don’t think either average above 75 and therefore not worth it.
I should have added Moore sat out most of the last year.
I should have added Moore sat out most of the last Qtr.