The Fallen Premiums – Rd 1

Written by Chillo on March 28 2018

…also known as the Premiums Of Future Past.

There won’t officially be any Fallen Premiums until after Round 3, when the first price changes of the year kick in. But that doesn’t stop me from dusting off my favourite crystal ball and seeing what the options may be when that time comes. Expect price drops from this dirty dozen of elite players who delivered sub-elite R1 performances:

Some were hits…

Zach Merrett MID, $600 600 (scored a concussion-affected 17)
Dayne Zorko MID, $600 800 (32)
Marc Murphy MID, $595 000 (61)
Marcus Bontempelli MID, $577 800 (63)
Taylor Adams MID, $591 000 (69)
Matthew Kreuzer RUC, $603 700 (74)
Tom Rockliff MID, $529 400 (55)
Nat Fyfe MID, $597 900 (75)
Brandon Ellis DEF, $502 500 (51)
Dayne Beams MID, $557 600 (69)
Sam Menegola MID/FWD, $551 800 (74)
Michael Hibberd DEF, $545 200 (74)

…and some just went missing!
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12 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 1”

    1. Unfortunately with the dud score in round 1 it will only affect his price for one round. Meaning he will go down when his price changes but then increase again if he is scoring well.

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    2. If Merrett can maintain consistent 110 scores in his next 3 games his price will fall only the week of the first price update. Around the $45,000 -$50,000 range.
      His new updated price would be around the 100 average after the first 3 games so if he averages 105 in the next few following games his price would not fall.
      Should he score consistent 100 in his next two games and his rolling average be maintained at 100 thereafter then his first three price changes will be falls of $55,000 – $5000 -$ 4000 approximately.

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        1. Question there is “How?”

          Option A) You’ve got two mid-pricers that aren’t working out (1 down, 1 up)
          Option B) You’ve got one mid-pricer that’s not working out, and cash in the bank (straight upgrade)
          Option C) Sideways trade another premo to a slightly underpriced Merrett.

          A and B are fine in my book.
          C is a wasted trade, you only gain ~$50k in value out of it. Only time I’d consider a sideways trade would be if you had an LTI during Round 3 and were forced to trade anyway.

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  1. I reckon at this early stage, a ‘Fallen Premium’ would be the guy who is still under-priced for what he could achieve, and potentially proved that in Round 1. Many of the players from the pre-season that we expected to over-perform on their low price did infact do so, and if that continued for the next 2 weeks, they’d be in for a sizeable price RISE.

    Not necessarily talking about the rolled-gold premiums here, more the semi-breakout ones, or the already discounted ones. Saying Tom Mitchell is ‘under-priced’ because he scored 167 is technically true, but doesn’t really change the fact that he’s still over $650k.

    NOTE: I’m obviously not recommending too many sideways trades, but if needed or desired, these would be some of the guys that you’d want to be getting in before they increase too much:

    DEF
    Sicily ($403k, 125)
    Shaw ($458k, 114)
    Marchbank ($381k, 105)
    McGrath ($388k, 102)

    MID
    Parker ($546k, 149)
    Steven ($499k, 135)
    Cripps ($537k, 130)
    Coniglio ($452k, 129)
    Selwood ($562k, 125)

    RUC
    Gawn ($504k, 139)
    Naitanui ($466k, 113)
    Sinclair ($437k, 106)

    FWD
    Curnow ($408k, 126)
    Sicily ($403k, 125)

    There are probably other names abound, but these seemed to be the key names being thrown around during the pre-season that presented value for money, AND have so far proven 1 strong score.

    Happy Hunting.

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    1. Great post DJ!

      Curnow, Sicily, McGrath, Marchbank and Sinclair are more like potential breakouts, since they’ve never really been regarded as premiums, but the other guys on that list definitely qualify as fallen premiums. They did their “falling” at some stage last year, mostly due to injury, but we all know they’re proven performers who are better than their respective price tags.

      Now, can you please tell me which one I should get to replace Libba? 😉

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  2. Usually this series of articles has most of my premiums listed in it, but not so far this year… except for poor addled Zach Merrett. Thanks for the article, Chillo!

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  3. The problem is that there are a few that will not be premiums this year most likely of those is the bont. Because let’s face it it’s likely that the dogs will not miss the 8th but miss the 12th.

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