The Fallen Premiums R10, 2013

Written by MJ on June 4 2013

Defenders:

Michael Hibberd ($488,600; +$93,500, Ave 101.9, BE 67, BYE R13) Despite rising $93k this season, Hibberd has actually fallen $22k since R7. You can safely class him as a premium now, after I was a little sceptical earlier in the season whether he could maintain such a high output. Only dropped two games below 90, which is outstanding for a defender, in which consistency has been hard to come by in the backlines this season.

Corey Enright ($472,000; -$30,400, Ave 91.3, BE 87, BYE R12) Borris just keeps hanging around this price, which is strange considering he’s averaged 99.2 over the last 5 matches. Faces GWS this week, so consider getting on if he’s not rested. Will suit most coaches bye structure as a rare R12 defender.

Bryce Gibbs ($466,700; -$43,100, Ave 99, BE 81, BYE R13) Has hit rock bottom price now and is definitely bargain of the week in defence. Remove his injury game and he’s averaged 104.67, which is super value at way under $500k.

*Some defenders to pop under $500k in a few weeks:
Brendan Goddard $518k, BE 131
Pearce Hanley $516k, BE 163
Paul Duffield $515k, BE 123

Midfielders:

Andrew Swallow ($535,100; -$50,000, Ave 110.8, BE 87, BYE R12) Swallow is one of the most durable players in the game. Tweaked his knee in R7, which sent his price south, but still played R8. Has not missed a game since 2008. A POD for your side in less than 8% of teams and has Gold Coast this week.

Dane Swan ($523,300; -$152,000, Ave 111.9, BE 119, BYE R13) Bit of debate on the site over whether Swan is worth picking up. Historically plays better in the 2nd half of seasons. What did he average from R11 onwards last season you say? A massive 132.6! And in 2011? 124.83! Surely not again in 2010? Yep, 137.16! 2009? Don’t tell me, 131.67! He may look like he’s had a few too many burgers over pre-season, but the stats suggest he works them off in the back half of the year. Does the business against Melbourne too, with a 160 & 173 in his last two against them.

Nick Dal Santo ($425,400; -$119,400, Ave 83.2, BE 71, BYE R12) Have to give a shoutout to Nicky Dal, who knocked up his first ton of the season on the weekend. He’s got a magnificent track record in the SuperCoach game, but he’s just not getting it done in a struggling Saints outfit. Can’t see many better options at this price, but try raise the extra $100k for an elite mid.

*So many premiums mids heading for the bargain bin folks:
Jobe Watson $615k, BE 134
Scott Pendlebury $610k, BE 133
Josh P. Kennedy $581k, BE 171
Trent Cotchin $550k, BE 152
Sam Mitchell $534k, BE 141
Scott Thompson $526k, BE 138
Marc Murphy $516k, BE 135
Joel Selwood $491k, BE 134
Luke Hodge $474k, BE 137

Rucks:

Darren Jolly ($494,400; -$24,300, Ave 91.9, BE 95, BYE R13) The 136 on the weekend was his third score of 120+ this season from 6 matches (excluding the rib injury game of 1 point). Remove his injury game and his average jumps to 107. Has Melbourne this week, so I’d expect another good showing after a 130 in the Queen’s Birthday match last season.

Matthew Kreuzer ($407,800; -$86,300, Ave 84.7, BE 33, BYE R13) You can pat yourself on the back if you traded Kreuzer in last week for Berger. 122 sees his BE at 33 and will be due for another hike in price. Still considered value, after rising $27.8k this week.

Shane Mumford ($394,200; -$92,700, Ave 81.7, BE 42, BYE R12) The mummy is stirring. After 7 straight weeks under 80 points, he smashed the bombers with a 129. However, I don’t like him as a selection when he shares duties with Mike Pyke. Be wary, as I feel last weekend may have been an outlier.

*Some rucks worth waiting for:
Patrick Ryder $512k, BE 165
Ben McEvoy $480k, BE 138
Ivan Maric $454k, BE 116 (will get a write up next week)

Forwards:

Andrew Walker ($501,300; +$77,900, Ave 109.9, BE 96, BYE R13) Skywalker has fallen $52k since R7, where many were picking him up for over $550k. You now have the chance to get him for a tick over $500,000. 150 against the Giants affirms him as a premium player this season, as that’s effectively a 110 average from 10 matches, with 5 over 120. Has a tough run of opposition in the coming weeks which is my only knock on him (Ess, Haw, BYE, Syd, Coll).

Travis Cloke ($457,500; +$21,500, Ave 99.8, BE 101, BYE R13) Was a late withdrawal with a virus last week. Has plummeted 118k since R6 and faces a Frawley-less Melbourne this week, before a favourable fixture that reads WB, BYE, Port, Carl, Adel, GC, GWS. Like most key forwards he’ll be inconsistent, but three scores of 120+, including a 195 against Richmond in R4 shows he can destroy teams on his day. Averaged 112.75 from R11-R23 in 2011, with an average of 114 in his last 3 games against Melbourne.

*Forward thinking:
Nick Riewoldt $546k, BE 161
Dustin Martin $530k, BE 176

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58 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R10, 2013”

  1. Nice write up, i’m thinking Trading Daisey to Barlow he has had a awesome 3-5 game average what you lads rekon?

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  2. Nice write up once again MJ

    Ok folks Im looking deep into the future at MJ’s fallen premuim edition in two weeks time ( or after the two’s respective bye) and Im stuck with filling my last premium midfield spot.
    So who would you take after their bye at O’meara’s expense

    Thumbs up – Kennedy worth around 560k

    Thumbs down – Cotchin worth around 520k

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  3. What’s people’s thoughts on Leuie??
    Reckon this finger will repair quicker then expected?
    TU Trade him out, he’s dead weight over the byes… upgrade to an Elite Premium. NicNat or Goldie look alright…
    TD hold the trigger Ned, I’m not so sure bout this injury, he has a good average and has an easy run home or should I say till the plane leaves for Bali around September.

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  4. Refuse to go Cloke, lost time he dropped to a tempting price, it . just . didnt . stop !

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  5. so im going to bring in gibbs (blues) who should i drop ?
    tu docherty (bris)
    td pittard (port)

    any comment would be helpful thanks

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  6. Finding it hard to justify bringing someone in this week, knowing they have a bye coming up

    Think I’ll trade hard in r12 and r13

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  7. What do people think about getting A. Walker? I was definitely going to go for Jimmy, but Walker seems like another good option.

    Although, Bartel is playing GWS this week, so he could potentially kill it, but he has a bye next week.

    Which way should I go?

    T/U – Bartel
    T/D – Walker

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  8. Hey guys

    What are peoples thoughts on going o’meara –> ablett, i just cant handle not having the little master anymore, and since they share a bye (obviously) and o’meara has peaked and could even start to fall before his bye.

    Good Trade T/U
    Bad Trade T/D

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  9. Do I keep Goodes/ Vlastuin as a D6 or do I upgrade one of them to Hanley? I already have
    Goodard, Shaw, Gibbs, Birchall. Heppell, Goodes (Vlastuin, Thurlow.

    Need 2 more premos in MID
    Full premo ruck
    Full premo FWD

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  10. Need some advice on Dixon

    I traded Gibbs to Dixon a month ago when Gibbs first done his hammy and Dixon was on fire…. now it doesn’t look like Dixon will be back for another few weeks (was reading that he will get a run through the ressies first)….

    Do I suck it up and trade Dixon back to Gibbs or just hold him till he returns?

    Thumbs up – you have held him for this long save the trade
    Thumbs down – give him the flick and get Gibbs back in.

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  11. What is going on with Charlie Dixon? Every week for the last four w eeks, he’s been listed as ‘test’. Now classified as TBA. Would’ve thought in this day and age that the doctors would have a clue……

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  12. I can hear the facepalming already, but I’m considering breaking two golden rules at once.
    1. Sideways trading
    2. Trading in Brent Stanton
    Marc Murphy’s been giving me the dry horn all season. He’s gotta be either injured or struggling with the captaincy. Stanton’s had one injury affected 41 & one dud game of 51. Other than that, he’s avg’d 110, & with Essendon’s midfield load spread a lot more evenly this year, shouldn’t get the clamps put on him as much. Can pocket $45K with the Murph to Stanton trade too. Got me thinking…

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  13. Evening all, been frequenting the site all season with much interest and have to say first off that you guys do a fantastic job and I love all the banter and also seeing that other people are as into this as I now seem to be (1st season for me). Anyway, I’m a first time poster so here’s hoping I don’t embarrass myself.

    Now that I’ve probably lost you all, let’s get down to it. Hopefully I’m not wrong but I’ve not seen any mention of Brent Stanton on the old Fallen prems pages in the last few weeks. Seems to me that he’s been doing quite well this year, and apart from the round 6 where he injured himself and was subbed out (41), and his first game back from injury in round 8 (51), he’s been averaging a very solid 119. He’s $471,600 and only 1.6% of teams have him so in my mind a great POD for my side. Not sure if I’m missing something here, but he looks a bargain to me. BE of 31 so barring a horror game, he’s going back over $500K this week. Only gone over 130 once but over 115 in 6 of the 10 he’s played, including the injury game.

    Apologies for the long post, I’ll try keep my comments shorter in the future. Would welcome any comments.

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  14. Is anyone holding onto Viney? I still have him after he posted that last big score and his BE is so low.

    Do I trade out for Mitchell if named and use the cash to upgrade O’Meara to Swan who are both bye 13s?

    Do It – thumbs up
    Hold – Thumbs down

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  15. Isnt it amazing what a difference a day makes. Last night spent two hours trying to work out my trades and find a way to have more than 16 starters without making god awful trades. That include 3 clicks on the reverse trade button.

    Just couldnt work it. Tonight after 2 minutes it came to me from the blue. Sure I am still relying on gawn and thurlow to play to get 18 playing but it is so much better than the world of pain last night.

    A couple of cans seem to be the difference.

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  16. terlich -> gibbs is a lock for me this week. unless i decide to discard all plans and get gaz in because its getting really tough without those massive scores in your side every week.

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  17. Going O’Meara to swan is a must for me!!!! Makes my miss sound like this Ablett, Watson, pendles, jpk, cotch, s.mitchell, priddis and then swan
    Also thinking of doing to downgrade trades to make money for upgrades next week but don’t have any idea who to get any help my?
    And a big question I have is when the hell is brad crouch coming back? The only use he is to me is for vc loophole

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  18. Rowe > Nicholls
    O’Meara > Swan

    Then, next week:
    Zorko > A.Walker

    And the week after:
    Viney > T.Mitchell

    And then I will only be 2 defenders, 2 or 3 midfielders and maybe 1 forward off a full premium side.

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  19. im confused
    R11 bye round
    Re: the scores from the best 18 players on the field
    are these player scores going to be accumulated during the R11/12/13 matches as per usual non bye round scoring system or are the scores going to be given to the players post match using players average or projected totals
    thanks for your help guys n girls

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