The Fallen Premiums – R11, 2015

Written by MJ on June 18 2015

We’re keeping it simple this week. I’ve taken a look at some of the R11-bye players who are fresh from a holiday and ready to tackle the second half of the season.

Defenders:

Bachar Houli $480,400 (+$33,000; AVE 103.7, BE 83, PTA 96) The exquisitely bearded, Bachar Houli has put in some massive performances this season (150 & 165), jumping his average up from a historical base of mid-80s to the three figure mark. Peaking at over $550k in R7, he’s dropped a considerable amount on account of a 59 scored in R8. There was a bit of discussion on yesterday’s post regarding how Ramadan may affect his output in the next month, but I’m not as concerned as some.

Alex Rance $428,200 (-$48,000; AVE 93.7, BE 95, PTA 85.6) You won’t find many cheaper with this sort of average. Starting the year like a house on fire (112, 156), he’s only scored one ton since then, which poses a bit of a worry. Upon witnessing such a price drop, he’ll be knocking on a few SuperCoach’s doors this week.

Brodie Smith $339,800 (-$163,000; AVE 76.38, BE 118, PTA 67.8) Two bouts of concussion this season has left the young crow battered and bruised. He still has a 16 in his price cycle, so you could wait the extra game against the Hawks to get another look at him. We all know what he’s capable of at his peak, starting the year with 144 and 117.

Midfielders:

Jordan Lewis $516,000 (-$72,200; AVE 104.57, BE 126, PTA 103.2) His most recent score is a 63 against the Saints, so he’ll be cheap for at least another two weeks. It was his only game below 29 disposals for the season, so clearly his efficiency has been down. There aren’t too many other R11 bye options on the bargain list at the moment though.

Rory Sloane $484,500 (-$132,400; AVE 102.43, BE 116, PTA 96.8) The ‘Buy of the Round’ in my book. Sloane is too much of a bargain to ignore. A few head knocks in R4 and two lots of red vests in the following two rounds has sent his price plummeting and is perfectly ripe for the picking post-bye.

Rucks:

Sam Jacobs $539,100 (-$81,000; AVE 102.2, BE 124, PTA 107.8) He’s been incredibly inconsistent this year. When he scores tons, he goes very large, with six tons all above 110. A great selection for your Mumford trade.

Forwards:

Jarryd Roughead $463,800 (-$50,900; AVE 96.2, BE 123, PTA 92.6) With just the three tons this season, Roughy has been the shadow of his former self. Dropping nearly $100k since R3, he’s ready to be picked up at a fraction of the price. You never know, – another 175 could be just around the corner.

Dayne Zorko $408,500 (-$123,400; AVE 84.2, BE 52, PTA 81.6) I sheepishly jumped on board the magician prior to R10 and was satisfied with the 95 on debut. Priced at just above 80ppg he’s sure to provide value for $$, but keep yourself prepared for that off game here or there, as he’s dished up three sub-65 matches already this year, which has kept his price down for a while now.

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48 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R11, 2015”

  1. should I trade out Rockliff or not? If so should I save some cash and go for Sloane or go for Dangerfield. I am ranked 37000

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  2. I can bring in one of the following due to $$$$

    Tu Sloan
    Td hodge

    Any comments would be great.

    Thanks.

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  3. Biggest issue for me is whether or not to keep Saad which is having a big affect on which FPs I take this week.

    I have McKenzie as well so can switch Saad around to cover both DEF and MID which is great for coverage long-term. But it means dolling out a fair bit of cash to turn Lever into Houli.

    But getting rid of Saad and turning him into Houli/Simpson means I can go Rocky-Beams and CEY-Sloane. Although that leaves me one short for this week by getting rid of CEY.

    T/U:
    Saad-Houli
    Rocky-Beams
    CEY-Sloane

    T/D:
    Lever-Houli
    Rocky-Sloane
    Clark-Zorko
    Saad kept as DEF/MID cover

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  4. What’s the view on dangerfield vs sloane as a long term option. Is one a 10 point better player or are they too close to call? Is danger the slightly better player but sloane being the price too good to ignore?

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  5. Thanks MJ! Fallen Premiums, Cow Talk and Badger’s Rookies really help with the plan.

    Round 12 trade plan v318:
    Newnes > Rance
    Miller > Sloane
    McKenzie > Steele

    Mids and rucks will be done, 1 more forward premium and a bit of work left in defense with 11 trades remaining after this round. Steele is a risk with JS, but it’s super slim pickings! I can’t realistically work in Hamling as I have too many def rookies already.

    Next week Tarrant, Lumumba and McIntosh are penciled in for trades. Hoping Brodie Smith shows some style.

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  6. upgrade Newnes to Simpson or houli tu
    Hold Newnes td?
    I also have saad as def six but don’t have enough for a straight swap

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  7. Morning SCT,

    Great article as usual, MJ.

    Really want to grab Sloane & Smith, but I’ll need to trade Clark to Hamling
    (via Krakouer via McKenzie dpp’s) before tonight’s game!!!!!

    T/U….worth it as Hamling will be picked
    T/D….not worth the risk as Hamling is a 50/50 at best to be selected

    Cheers SCT coaches

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  8. I’m surprised T. McDonald aka “T-Mac” didn’t get a mention this week, only 6k more with an even smaller BE than Houli, but averages a little more. Ok his bye is Next Week, but he should go up more in $$$ than Houli would, and most should be able to cover his bye week absence?

    Both are great options, and two I’ll be bringing in, but for me McDonald over Houli this week

    On defense still with Lever injured (1-2 weeks ankle) and D. Mckenzie not setting the world on fire in his VFL game + S. Fisher coming back from injury it doesn’t seem they have good prospects of getting back into their sides so..

    T/up – Hold Fire, and hope they’re bleak prospects of coming back into their respective sides improves, so – No Trade

    Or

    T/Down – Be thankful I’ve found rookies playing at the time, They’ve played me 3 games or more and made me coin(just not the fattened cow coin I’d ideally want) and it’s time to bank that 100k get in another cow eg Hamling and use that 100k for upgrading in the coming weeks?

    Thank You

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  9. Wanting to bring in Hodge this week – trade out which of the following?
    TU: Bruce BE 81 Av 79
    TD: Geary BE 37 Av 74
    Would prefer to do Lumumba but need him on the field unfortunately, so he can wait a week.

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  10. Hopefully if Hamling is named, I will be making the following trade, but need to know which of these 2 would you trade out
    TU: Dalgleish – not yet played a game
    TD: McKenzie – still money to be made but also not currently playing
    $62,700 price difference which could be handy

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  11. What about kruezer. I know he’s only played one but bum chambers dropping massively in price has given me no option.

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  12. Will be trading out Miller, Lever and Saad this week for Sloane, Steele and either

    T/U: Simpson
    or
    T/D Rance

    I think Hodge is fully priced and I just cant trust him to stay on the park all season.

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  13. a) Marc Murphy should also be a valid consideration this week – at 502k with a BE of 51, coming off a 151 before his bye. Yes, with Judd now retired will attract a bit more attention but was great against the Crows before the bye!! Worthwhile consideration and a good alternative to the likes of Sloane/Lewis/Hodge – only in 1% of teams, massive POD

    b) Trent Cotchin – not quite a fallen premo, but a solid alternative at 540k with a BE of 61, coming off 136, 123. Does have the tendency to drop the odd stinker (a 63, 81 and 50 already this season)

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  14. Is it worth spending an extra 90k to get Beames over Lewis? I think Beames is the better option from a point scoring perspective but wonder if the extra cost negates this?
    TU: Beames
    TD: Lewis plus an extra 90k in the kitty.

    Cheers

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  15. Sloane – are people thinking given Sloane has a relatively high BE of 116 to wait a week and see what his post injury output is, before jumping on board or are you more concerned about the lost scoring potential this week.

    T/U – wait a week and checkout Sloane’s form
    T/D – don’t wait get on board now

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  16. Need to use all 3 to get 18 on the park this week. I have already made 2 changes that im happy with:

    Saad – Sloane (Via DPP)
    Clancee Pearce – Hodge

    Both have done a great job and averaged 80-85 for me, but won’t be top 10 defenders so had to go. My last trade is more difficult as i need an extra warm body, but don’t really like either of these trades. I feel i need to do one though and it probably based more on which of these players has a future in my side.

    T/U McKenzie – Steele ($213K in bank for next week)
    T/D Krakouer – Brodie Smith ($61K in bank for next week)

    Im $9k short of going straight from McKenzie to Smith this week unfortunately.

    Thoughts? Thanks all

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