The Fallen Premiums, R12 2015

Written by MJ on June 24 2015

This is the final Bye Round edition of the Fallen Premiums for the year. Can’t wait to get back to the real stuff next week with a full crop of premiums to mull over.


Bachar Houli $486,200 (+$38,800; AVE 103.09, BE 74, PTA 97.2) Houli was one of the better performers in the Tigers’ loss to the hands of the Eagles on Friday night. 117 and 97 in his last two matches has his price poised to rise back into $500k+ territory to align with the 100+ average he’s been marauding this season.

Brodie Smith $317,300 (-$185,500; AVE 75.44, BE 51, PTA 63.4) It’s such a ridiculous price for a player of Brodie’s calibre that you simply have to keep a close eye on him. A 68 against the Hawks will not entice many, but as a straight swap for the likes of Kamdyn McIntosh, he would make a handy D6/7 if you can spare the trade.


Dyson Heppell $534,800 (-$37,000; AVE 109.09, BE 83, PTA 106.8) Dyson registered his 2nd best score for the year with an impressive 129 just before the bye. With an average of just below 110, he’s no doubt unders at this price.

Lachie Neale $533,200 (+$64,300; AVE 111.18, BE 104, PTA 106.6) This pre-season bolter continued his form superbly into the regular season, dropping just two poor games all year (45, 67). The other 9 games make up an average of 123.4! This is the cheapest he’s been since R4.

Rory Sloane $483,500 (-$133,400; AVE 104.25, BE 74, PTA 96.6) We saw him justify himself as an ideal Fallen Premium last Thursday with a 117. His price remains the same as last week, and you’ve got the added security of seeing some form before you purchase.


Sam Jacobs $519,000 (-$101,100; AVE 100.27, BE 94, PTA 103.8) Pretty poor with just 80 points against the Hawks, but there’s not much else to get excited about under $550k. If you’re in the market for a ruckman, it looks like you’re better off spending the big bucks and targeting a Goldstein, Martin, Blicavs type.


Dayne Zorko $424,300 (-$107,600; AVE 84.82, BE 66, PTA 84.8) He’s been hanging around this list like a librarian, silently going under the radar as he chalks up three consecutive scores in the 90s. Still cheap.

Marcus Bontempelli $417,300 (-$5,000; AVE 96.00, BE 70, PTA 83.4) The Bont was hot property after R2, with every man and his dog snapping up the highly touted big bodied midfielder. He’s just reached his lowest price for the year, so if you missed him initially, or traded him out upon injury, it may be time to consider running the glasses over him again.

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42 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums, R12 2015”

  1. So I might only be ranked ~44k currently, but why so much talk all year about Brodie Smith? Bloke’s never averaged over 95. Last year had hugely inconsistent scores, this year wouldn’t be worth a look if not for round 1-2. Surely over-hyped based on career and current form??
    What am I missing exactly?


  2. Thanks for the article MJ.

    I don’t remember a year when fallen premiums were so unreliable and difficult to pick. Automatic selections like Selwood can no longer be trusted for 100+ averages.


  3. He’s had a pretty ordinary season so far, so have my Bombers…but I’m bankin on Hibberd to go large for the 2nd half of the season – $434,900, AVE 81.3, BE 77…


  4. Anyone considering Pavlich at ~350k?

    Clark/Tarrant + 50/60k

    Fwd version of Brodie Smith ATM.

    PTA 70, Ave 83.8, potential to ave 90 from here.

    Freo resting players at back end of year is a concern though.



  5. I have 9 trades left and only 17 likely to play this week

    Should I use 2 trades to swap Tarrant&Dumont for Pavlich&Kavanagh, which will give me 19?


  6. I was initially going to go McIntosh to Houli, but Smith at ~$315k is insanity. His numbers are actually trending upwards too; his kick to handball ratio is getting back to normal levels, and his disposal efficiency stats are hiding what is an improving game. His confidence levels now compared to after the two concussions is noticeably higher (the ball is spinning end over end now for one). And all the talk of Laird taking his points is untrue; Laird is taking Jensch’s points, not Smith’s.

    They have the Lions this week, who are horrible at pressuring the ball carrier. Plus by saving the (at least) $150k by not going to a Houli/Simpson/etc., it allows you to get in the box seat to snare Ablett/Rockliff that much quicker.

    Worst case Smith is reliable bench cover who gets the ball 20 times a game. And if you have Hodge and Shaw, there is no defender it is killing your team not to have.


  7. I’ve brought in Pendles this week, had his bye last week and has bottomed out in price now that his season low of 81 is out of his scoring system.
    He’s dropped down 110k in price to $558,700 and has a breakeven of 102 so looks like a solid option imo.
    There are some worries such as his form this year which has been a bit down. Last four years he’s averages about 124 but this year he is only averaging 114 and the Collingwood draw is gonna get tougher but I think he’s a good option.
    Let me know what you think


  8. Great article! Made me rethink my trade strategy for this week:

    Final midfielder

    T/U T.Mitchell (and DPP link)
    T/D Neale (Higher ceiling and better JS)


  9. Bringing in Sloane, Smith and McLean (or another cheap rookie forward or mid) this week for Tarrant, Dumont and Josh Kelly. I was going to keep Kelly as a F7/M9 but the return of Krak (and a lack of funds) means that he’s moving on.
    That leave me with Newnes starting in the midfield (not ideal, but hopefully he can find some form). If I don’t go for GAJ in a couple of weeks he may be a handy M9/D7.


  10. Great article! Very tempted on Houli this week. Means Smith who I brought in last week goes to d7. But am undecided if I should trade. Sloanes a must for those that don’t have him


  11. Can’t believe I’m considering this, but I’ve heard it being talked about, and there seems to be some merit to it, particularly if for those who don’t have a full 18 this week & have trades up your sleeve.
    Selwood out….Cripps back in.
    Pros – Extra body on the field this week & with Cripps playing GC, should be good for 100+ pts
    – Pocket 25K, plus catch Cripps’ price rises in the next 2 weeks ($40Kish?) & avoid Selwood’s drop.
    – Cripps will arguably score better than Selwood anyway on this year’s form
    – Will make for an easier upgrade to GAJ in a few weeks time.
    Cons – Goes against all fundamental SC trading principles.
    – Could be seen as a wasted/luxury trade, esp if you’re already running low.
    – Selwood could return to form.


  12. Hi All, Currently have 14 trades left & $136.9k in the bank and looking at the following trades:

    Apologies in advance for the long post, but I guess this is me justifying to myself why I want to trade out/in these players.

    Trade Out Options:
    1. KMac – High BE and has been up and down like most rookies, so thinking he’ll bleed more cash than make anymore than he has.
    2. M. Clark – Injured??/Rested?? I think he is likely to hover at around the 60ppg avg, so likely he won’t generate much more $$$. If I can, may keep him as an F7/F8
    3. TBC – Will he get back into the team?? Who knows! Like Clark, don’t see him averaging anymore 60ppg as well if he comes back. Tempted to hold him if his JS looks better, as he can be my F7/F8 and/or an R3.
    4. R. Tarrant – High-ish BE, but happy to move him on, as even though he has a pretty decent ceiling, with his highest score being 121 ( although that was back in Rnd 4 v. GEE), he also has a pretty low one too at 36 (Rnd 8 v. FRE). After Round 5 and 8 games, his avg is only at 60.8ppg, so don’t believe he’ll be generating anymore $$$ either.

    Trade In Options:
    1. B. Smith – I think I’m happy to trade him in, even if he scores 80ppg from here on end, he’s going to still score more consistently (well I’m hoping he will), than KMac and definitely has shown he has a high ceiling, at least a higher one anyway. Plus at only $317.3k it’s ‘almost’ a no concussed brainer! (sorry!)
    2. R. Sloane – 95% ready to bring him in, but with R. Laird, B. Smith, P. Dangerfield already in my team, am I placing to many eggs in the one basket??
    3. J. Steele – Didn’t get to see him play unfortunately, but from what I have read, seems to be the real deal. Main cons though for me, is he is on the Bye and has only played 1 game! Oh and maybe long term JS.
    4. T. McLean – More for an option if he is selected to play, but JS is my concern… I still have J. Anderson, so don’t want to have another Rookie keeping the pine pretty much permanently warm!!

    So yeah…

    T/U – Looks good, just do it

    T/D – Look for better value and maybe save a trade (or 2)

    Comment for anything else.

    Thanks all for any help/input.


  13. Looking to bring in smith and sloane like most (not sold smith is going to kill it but I need to take a smallish risk after carrying players and playing safe has cost me games)

    The issue is I can do this move in 2 trades or 3 and I’m not quite sure which route to go.
    Option 1: Mcintosh, Tarrant and Dumont out
    Smith, Steele and Sloane in

    Option 2: Mcintosh and Harry Taylor out
    Smith and sloane in

    I still have 15 trades and 250k cash, but to get smith and Sloane I need to give something up. I guess i mm trying to balance between 2 of the golden SC rules and I think I need to break one of them.
    T/U: Do I trade a ‘premium’ – option 2
    T/D: Do I bring in a rookie pre bubble – option 1


  14. I neeed a budget forward rookie with no js at all who is playing this week and is cheap as. Have already got J Steele. Are there any other names on the list?

    Future js is irrelevant, even preferred for a donut as will be at best F8 with 3 players in front of him due to dpp, so more for loopholing and cash freeing.



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