The Fallen Premiums – R3

Written by MJ on April 13 2016

Now that price changes have begun, The Fallen Premiums weekly segment will begin to make it’s way out of first gear. If you’re new to the concept of Fallen Premiums, you might be wondering what this concept is all about. Throughout the season I’ll be unearthing the looking glass to take a peek at some quality players who have either through injury, a heavy tag, or just a slow patch of form, taken a hit to their price tags.

The mantra of this segment can be summed up by the famous cliche –

“Form is temporary, class is permanent”.

Even the best in our game drop a poor game every now and again. Our mission is to buy them after their form slump and pick them up when they’re gaining momentum as they bottom out in price.

Without too much more preamble, let’s get stuck into the first meaningful edition of the Fallen Premiums for Season 2016. I’ve given you their price, R3 price drop, first three scores and breakeven (BE). The falling commodities lists are guys with high breakevens who are most likely to come down in price next round, so you may want to hold out another week or two before bringing them in.

Defenders

Alex Rance $516k (-$7.0k) 101, 75, 116, BE 112 – One of the most fearless players in the AFL, Rance is kicking things off from his magnificent work last season that earned him AA honours and Richmond’s B&F. He’s finding plenty of the pill alongside Bachar Houli in the Tiger backline, with 20, 17 and 21 disposals over the first three weeks. Two tons under his belt already signals another good year ahead.

Jimmy Bartel $462k (-$7.8k) 88, 61, 110, BE 99 – A lot of Cats had good rounds against the mauling of the Lions, and Jimmy was no exception. He laid 8 tackles for his 110, after a total of just three in the first two rounds. Down nearly $8k on his already reduced price.

Falling commodities:
Tom McDonald $485k; BE 163

Matthew Boyd $524k; BE 154
Heath Shaw $578k; BE 136

Midfielders

Nat Fyfe $643k (-$27.2k) 61, 157, 115, BE 106 – Burned a whole lot of coaches new to SuperCoach who traded him out after R1’s 61 points. Experienced players of this game will know that a 15 disposal game from Nat is rarer than hens teeth and he was bound to bounce back quickly. 157 (34 disposals, 3 goals) and 115 is what we are accustomed to seeing from the Brownlow Medalist. Non-owners won’t mind, as that 61 has shaved $27.2k off his starting price.

Dan Hannebery $610k (-$7.7k) 100, 121, 125, BE 111 – Yes, his price has dipped even after back-to-back 120+ scores. What his 100 in R1 doesn’t show is that he played no part in the final quarter, so was well on track for another massive ton. Worth the dough.

Josh P. Kennedy $570k (-$24.7k) 75, 95, 124, BE 114 – JPK is probably the poorer man’s Dan Hennebery. He hasn’t yet outscored his younger team mate in any of the first three games, but it’s hard to keep a good man down for long. With season averages of 120, 106, 114 and 110 over the last four years and missing just two games since the turn of the decade, he’s a SuperCoach stalwart.

Falling commodities:
David Mundy $612k; BE 205
Marc Murphy $531k; BE 164
Matt Priddis $609k; BE 161
David Armitage $559k; BE 152
Patrick Dangerfield $657k; BE 144
Adam Treloar $564k; BE 144
Rory Sloane $540k; BE 142
Scott Pendlebury $597k; BE 139

Rucks

Shane Mumford $549k (-$21.5k) 65, 105, 117, BE 99 – Mummy has collected 11 disposals in each of his three games this year. Talk about consistency! The only thing holding him back in R1 was his 6 frees against. Mumford is one for the risk takers, as he hasn’t yet played 20 games in a season.

Falling commodities:
Sam Jacobs $533k; BE 143
Nic Naitanui $568k; BE 139

Forwards

Leigh Montagna $590k (-$8.5k) 83, 100, 150, BE 95 – At 33 years of age, Montagna is no spring chicken, but he has certainly shown the ability to track down a Sherrin is still there! 29, 31 and 40 possessions thus far is a mighty impressive effort. His 150 last week was a result of 14 marks, finding acres of space all day. Pretty safe bet that he’ll be a top 6 forward this year, playing predominantly midfield for the Saints.

Falling commodities:
Justin Westhoff $474k; BE 170
Shaun Higgins $494k; BE 129
Josh J. Kennedy $528k; BE 124
Michael Barlow $471k; BE 117

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14 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R3”

  1. Great write up MJ
    Assuming Priddis doesnt make his break even this week when do you think will be the best time to bring him in I’m? Im thinking after they play Sydney.

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    1. Yep got my eye on Priddis as well – brininging him round 6 makes sense as his 79 will come out of his three round average then – depends what he does over the next few week though!

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    2. His lowest score was in R2, so that will drop out of his price cycle after this round, preventing any further heavy falls until he drops another sub 100 score. You could get him after the Richmond game, as he historically matches up well against the Swans: 135 and 123 in last two seasons. This is probably due to the contested nature of the Swans style over the years.

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  2. I’d add a few others in a different light, that have technically already “fallen”. These are the prominent ones that have had a much poorer R1 game compared to their R2 & R3 games (hence have either dropped slightly, and/or have very achievable B/E’s):

    DEF

    Houli (74, 127, 144)
    He actually increased by $18k last week, but still has a B/E of 44. At $534k, he’ll be a hard one to get for quite some time after this week.

    Hurn (66, 94, 102)
    Always a risky pick, but is always on my pre-season watchlist. Only went up $10k last week, but with a B/E of only 50, he will likely jump up past his current cheap price of $418k.

    FWD

    Pavlich (33, 102, 92)
    Only dropped $14k last week, but with a B/E of only 57, his price of $426k will likely rise. I wouldn’t necessarily see this as a good selection though.

    Riewoldt, N. (33, 101, 86)
    As per Pavlich. Dropped $30k, B/E of 84. Not recommended for $460k.

    Hawkins (36, 91, 96)
    As per the above 2. Dropped $13k, B/E of 59. Not recommended (even at only $417k).

    Rioli (57, 128, 87)
    Aah, the perennial tease. Only dropped $10k unfortunately, but with a B/E of only 74, he will likely go back up again (currently $491k). A risky selection.

    Motlop (51, 80, 114)
    A bit of a left-field choice here, especially while still $460k.

    Betts (79, 142, 106)
    Another tough call. However, a B/E of only 40 means his price of $489k will soon disappear.

    MID

    Fyfe (61, 157, 115)
    As with many, the hope of a massive price drop after his R1 score has disappeared after averaging 136 in his last 2 games. Only dropping $27k last week, and with a very achievable B/E of 110. I’d still maybe wait a week, as his B/E next week will still be relatively high after that 157 drops out, and he’s playing the Kangaroos this week (and may cop a hard Jacobs tag).

    Ziebell (77, 127, 124)
    Hard to justify someone like Ziebell for a precious MID spot, but if you were keen, he’s still under $500k ($491k), but will shoot up with a B/E of only 38.

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    1. Thanks for the input David! Plenty of good suggestions there.

      Houli has been fantastic so far. Reminds me of his start to the year last season with a few huge tons in the opening month of action. He looks to have found his place as a defensive premium though.

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    2. Ziebell interests me most. Norths ultimate game plan this year centered around ‘how to make best use of Goldies dominance?’ I think the answers will appear in the long awaited emergence of Ziebell, the resurgence of Wells (as we have already seen) and ‘possibly’ the ascendancy of Waite! (hard to ignore). I think North are on the up but other than those 3 they are much like Hawthorn in fanatsy…. an excellent team with very few fantasy relevant types.

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  3. Hmm who to trade in Fyfe,Priddis or Gray thinking Fyfe but has jacobs tag this week and no Sandi for at least a month

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