Now that price changes have begun, The Fallen Premiums weekly segment will begin to make it’s way out of first gear. If you’re new to the concept of Fallen Premiums, you might be wondering what this concept is all about. Throughout the season I’ll be unearthing the looking glass to take a peek at some quality players who have either through injury, a heavy tag, or just a slow patch of form, taken a hit to their price tags.
The mantra of this segment can be summed up by the famous cliche –
“Form is temporary, class is permanent”.
Even the best in our game drop a poor game every now and again. Our mission is to buy them after their form slump and pick them up when they’re gaining momentum as they bottom out in price.
Without too much more preamble, let’s get stuck into the first meaningful edition of the Fallen Premiums for Season 2016. I’ve given you their price, R3 price drop, first three scores and breakeven (BE). The falling commodities lists are guys with high breakevens who are most likely to come down in price next round, so you may want to hold out another week or two before bringing them in.
Alex Rance $516k (-$7.0k) 101, 75, 116, BE 112 – One of the most fearless players in the AFL, Rance is kicking things off from his magnificent work last season that earned him AA honours and Richmond’s B&F. He’s finding plenty of the pill alongside Bachar Houli in the Tiger backline, with 20, 17 and 21 disposals over the first three weeks. Two tons under his belt already signals another good year ahead.
Jimmy Bartel $462k (-$7.8k) 88, 61, 110, BE 99 – A lot of Cats had good rounds against the mauling of the Lions, and Jimmy was no exception. He laid 8 tackles for his 110, after a total of just three in the first two rounds. Down nearly $8k on his already reduced price.
Tom McDonald $485k; BE 163
Matthew Boyd $524k; BE 154
Heath Shaw $578k; BE 136
Nat Fyfe $643k (-$27.2k) 61, 157, 115, BE 106 – Burned a whole lot of coaches new to SuperCoach who traded him out after R1’s 61 points. Experienced players of this game will know that a 15 disposal game from Nat is rarer than hens teeth and he was bound to bounce back quickly. 157 (34 disposals, 3 goals) and 115 is what we are accustomed to seeing from the Brownlow Medalist. Non-owners won’t mind, as that 61 has shaved $27.2k off his starting price.
Dan Hannebery $610k (-$7.7k) 100, 121, 125, BE 111 – Yes, his price has dipped even after back-to-back 120+ scores. What his 100 in R1 doesn’t show is that he played no part in the final quarter, so was well on track for another massive ton. Worth the dough.
Josh P. Kennedy $570k (-$24.7k) 75, 95, 124, BE 114 – JPK is probably the poorer man’s Dan Hennebery. He hasn’t yet outscored his younger team mate in any of the first three games, but it’s hard to keep a good man down for long. With season averages of 120, 106, 114 and 110 over the last four years and missing just two games since the turn of the decade, he’s a SuperCoach stalwart.
David Mundy $612k; BE 205
Marc Murphy $531k; BE 164
Matt Priddis $609k; BE 161
David Armitage $559k; BE 152
Patrick Dangerfield $657k; BE 144
Adam Treloar $564k; BE 144
Rory Sloane $540k; BE 142
Scott Pendlebury $597k; BE 139
Shane Mumford $549k (-$21.5k) 65, 105, 117, BE 99 – Mummy has collected 11 disposals in each of his three games this year. Talk about consistency! The only thing holding him back in R1 was his 6 frees against. Mumford is one for the risk takers, as he hasn’t yet played 20 games in a season.
Sam Jacobs $533k; BE 143
Nic Naitanui $568k; BE 139
Leigh Montagna $590k (-$8.5k) 83, 100, 150, BE 95 – At 33 years of age, Montagna is no spring chicken, but he has certainly shown the ability to track down a Sherrin is still there! 29, 31 and 40 possessions thus far is a mighty impressive effort. His 150 last week was a result of 14 marks, finding acres of space all day. Pretty safe bet that he’ll be a top 6 forward this year, playing predominantly midfield for the Saints.
Justin Westhoff $474k; BE 170
Shaun Higgins $494k; BE 129
Josh J. Kennedy $528k; BE 124
Michael Barlow $471k; BE 117
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