The Fallen Premiums – R4

Written by MJ on April 20 2016

It’s not quite time to declare that it’s cow-culling/upgrade season yet, but that doesn’t stop us from taking a look at some of the Fallen Premiums on offer for your perusal this week.

Defenders:

Grant Birchall $453K (-$11.4K) AVE 88.8, BE 90 – It’s seems like Birchall’s been around forever, but he’s still only 28 years of age. The hard running defender’s season averages since 2011 chronologically read: 94, 94.6, 88.9 and 86.1. Going at 88.8 ppg after round four, it’s pretty clear you know what you’ll get from Birch. 102 against the Saints was his first ton for the season.

Kade Simpson $483K (-$17K) AVE 93.8, BE 99 – Simmo hasn’t averaged under 92 since 2009. Mr. Reliable is at it again with 26 disposals and 101 points on Saturday. He also managed to take at least 9 marks three of the first four matches. Obviously still got it in the aging legs.

Defenders on the way down:
Matthew Boyd $493K, BE 124
Heath Shaw $548K, BE 122
Bachar Houli $541K, BE 115

Midfielders:

Jack Steven $539K (-$22.8K) AVE 100.5, BE 95 – He’s tonned up in all games except the 81 in R2. Has the 109.9 season average in 2013 under his belt and will be looking to push that figure this year with the Saints possibly taking a few steps up the AFL ladder. They’ll need players like Steven to achieve that this year. He’s a huge POD in just 2.4% of sides.

Rory Sloane $536K (-$32.7K) AVE 101.5, BE 87 – Remember last year when we were all scrambling to get this up-and-coming superstar in our teams, after starting the season with 145, 134 and 140!? Seems like a long time ago now, but the Sloane Ranger just notched up 137 in the win over Sydney, making 10 tackles for his 24 disposals. Maybe he’s just taken a little bit of time to get used to not having his partner in crime, Patty Dangerfield lurking around. He’s now shed the R2 81 from his price cycle, so looks to have bottomed out.

Andrew Gaff $529K (-$30.4K) AVE 101.8, BE 92 – Announced himself as a star last year, with a breakout average of 103.6 in his fifth AFL season. A 84 and 85 in R2&3 has left him $30K less than his starting price, but a 132 against the Tigers (just his fourth 130+ score in his career) means this is as low as he’ll go in the next month. Playing an outside running game has helped him play all 22 H&A matches for four straight seasons. Like Steven, he’s not in many teams (1.8%).

Joel Selwood $551K (-$14.3K) AVE 104.3, BE 82 – Joel started the year at a slighly deflated price than we usually see attached to the Geelong champ. $14.3K has been further shaved from that, as he eases back into the year off a limited pre-season after foot complaints. 142 points against the Lions shows he’s still got the goods to produce those massive numbers. Can’t see him getting much cheaper than $550K.

Midfielders on their way down:
David Mundy $612K, BE 205
Luke Hodge $584K, BE 197
Matt Priddis $609K, BE 161
Tom Mitchell $567K, BE 154
Robbie Gray $594K, BE 151

Rucks:

Shane Mumford $554K (-$15.8K) AVE 100.3, BE 93 – Mummy’s now posted three straight tons. Just imagine if Steven May tried to bulldoze his way through this man! He’s one of only a few players who can score 114 points and only come away from a game with one kick. In fact, he’s only had 8 in the first four rounds, clearly doesn’t need to lay boot to ball!

Nic Naitanui $550K (-$10.3K) AVE 111.8, BE 107 – Nic Nat’s looking like a really solid selection this season. While averaging 111.8, he’s still managed to drop over $10K from his initial price.

Rucks on their way down:
Stefan Martin $553K, BE 155
Mark Blicavs $549K, BE 153

Forwards:

Justin Westhoff $442K (-$68.1K) AVE 79.3, BE 74 – We’re not entirely spoilt for choice with Fallen Premiums in the forward line so far this year, but Westhoff deserves a mention as the 24 he scored in R2 has dragged his price a long way south from over $500K. 99 points last week in a big loss to the Giants is a promising sign. I wouldn’t jump at penning his signature just yet though.

Forwards on their way down:
Chad Wingard $496K, BE 176
Dustin Martin $541K, BE 154

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17 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R4”

  1. Thanks for the article again, MJ.

    I was considering Sloane or Selwood versus a double downgrade but then thought Zaharakis. Decisions!

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    1. Selwood himself has said he probably wont play every game this season. Sloane is an unknown due to Dangerfield passing the baton for the number 1 tag to him. I got Zaha in last week and was very happy with him on debut. I watched a bit of the game and he like to get past the man on the mark and get the cheap handball. Very good for supercoach scoring. Plus he seemed to be everywhere! Personally I’d be going Zaha out of those 3 (can’t believe I am actually typing that!)

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      1. Exactly right about Selwood, Razor. He said he will miss games, which is the only reason I didn’t start with him. Zaha looks good but im still not sold on him (unsure why).

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  2. If Stefan Martin gets up for the weekend, then Rory Sloane is looking very tempting to slot in at M8 for the year.
    If not, then I need to decide how much I love donuts ๐Ÿ˜‰
    Great stuff, MJ!

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  3. Was set to do the norm and get in DBJ and Merrett, but Sloane does look good too.

    Thoughts on Wingard? I’ve started with him but port look horrible and he can’t get the footy if it’s not in ports fwd line.

    Probably go JJ and Papley out for DBJ/Wagner and Zerrett/Sloane

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  4. Will look at Gray and Titch next week. Really looking forward to Dumb & Dumber later today, I have lots of material to share!

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  5. what to do with S Gray??
    I can trade him to someone like Merrett or Franklin or even Zorko in the Forward line, or get Sloane or JPK in the mids.

    What would you do and why? what is the better option.(I would be doing the Papley to Byrne-jones trade to facilitate this)

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  6. Sloane looks good, but I’m not ready to bring him in; so I’m holding out for Priddis in the next couple of weeks.

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  7. Need another premium in my mids but hard to decide if I just pay more for a gun or go with someone different,

    TU Fyfe (leaves me with 43k)

    TD Steven (leaves me with 162k)

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