The Fallen Premiums R4, 2013

Written by MJ on April 22 2013

This is the last week before upgrade season truly begins, as after R5 some of our cash cows will have fattened up enough for us to upgrade them to premiums. The following list were all labelled ‘Premiums’ last year. None of them have been performing up to the standard set by their form last season, which has seen large reductions on their initial pricetags. Some of these guys you may argue will not return to their 2012 output this season, but the vast majority of these players are likely to pick up their form sooner rather than later. If you are upgrading from a rookie to a premium this week, who are you looking at?

Format is (Price; Average, Breakeven, Discount from R1)

Defenders:

Heath Shaw ($501,400; 77, BE 150, -$39,900) My pick of the bunch for a defensive upgrade next week with that 150 BE! Has been in the top 10 SC defenders for many years and I can’t see any reason why his form won’t pick up soon.

Corey Enright ($463,900; 82.25, BE 103, -$38,500) No spring chicken at 31, but has averaged 91+ for the last 7 seasons. Taylor Hunt may be taking some of his rebounding opportunities off half-back.

Shannon Hurn ($444,000; 81.2, BE 90, -$44,800) Copped a forward tag by Armfield last week, but only needs a handful of possessions to score well. Averaged 90.1 last season.

Midfielders:

Gary Ablett ($681,200; 130, BE 139, -$59,300) Was grimacing in pain every time he landed on his hand last week. Still got 131. His breakeven is far from beyond him this week.

Dane Swan ($635,200; 124.5, BE 97, -$40,100) His 168 on the weekend will send his price back up after this week. Get him now if you want him.

Patrick Dangerfield ($566,700; 93.5, BE 114, -$69,300) Has probably bottomed out in price now at nearly $70k off his starting price. If you didn’t start with him, consider buying after his 4 goal performance on the weekend. Held back by the flu and a heavy tag in his first game.

Marc Murphy ($563,700; 102, BE 104, -$39,200) Always been a consistent SC scorer. Starting the year at $600k looked cheap to begin with. A steal at $40k less.

Jack Redden ($504,500; 85, BE 90, -$45,600) Averaged 109 from R7 onwards last season. Solid POD potential in only 1% of teams and should improve at only 22 years of age.

Nick Dal Santo ($501,600; 86.2, BE 116, -$43,200) Still no 100s this season after 4 games. Only 2 years ago he averaged 119.3. Consider only if he starts finding some form.

Brock McLean ($498,300; 84.5, BE 43, -$70,300) Mick gave him the green vest in R2, which slashed his price by $70k. Since then has scored 106 and 127. Low BE this week. Averaged 106 last season.

Shane Tuck ($492,700; 72.8, BE 150, -$120,700) Red vested this week. Started the year at over $600k after a 115 average last season surprised everyone. Could be $450k in a few weeks. Would be a very risky pick, but will be priced well under his capabilities.

Rucks:

Jarryd Roughead (FWD, $492,600; 82, BE 95, -$62,200) Back in form with 4 goals on the weekend in Tasmania. Would still be wary, as his consistency will not be there this season if Bailey stays in the Hawks line-up.

David Hale (FWD, $463,300; 77, BE 94, -$48,300) Never liked Hale as a SuperCoach option. Another one who’s scores have been impacted by the return of Max Bailey. Avoid.

Shane Mumford ($438,300; 80.2, BE 113, -$48,600) Much better when Mike Pyke was not in the team. After his 116 in R1, he’s dropped 3 in the 60s. Not for me.

Forwards:

Jordan Lewis (MID, $472,000; 86, BE 102, -$41,400) Hasn’t had any shockers, but still no 100s from Lewis this year after gunning it from the start in 2012.

Dayne Zorko (MID, $470,800; 78.8, BE 92, -$64,200) The Magician is firmly on my watchlist after going 104 in a big loss to the Roos. Like him better at this price.

Taylor Walker ($461,500; 77.5, BE 79, -$74,500) Subbed off last week on track for his 3rd score of 90+ this season. The 39 in R2 was off 73 DT points. (His highest DT score for the year).

Drew Petrie ($449,200; 77.8, BE 91, -$56,900) A big 120 for the Dish last round against the Lions. Wait and see how he goes this week against the Hawks.

Mitch Robinson (MID, $419,300; 63.5, BE 76, -$55,400) That R1 concussion score of 20 is now out of his system. Yet to see anything big from Mr.Kamikaze yet, but looks to have bottomed out in price with a BE of 76.

Hold your horses for Dale Thomas (MID/FWD)! A BE of 206 this week after a substitute appearance of 24pts should send him down to nearly $400k in two weeks. Keep him in your trading plans.

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28 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R4, 2013”

  1. None this week but really keeping my eye on Taylor Walker Have a feeling he is warming to his new situation with K.Tippet. maybe one more week of Dwyer or Neade fattening might see him come in if he continues to look good. In the mean time really tossing up grabbing Cloke?

    I think this will be the lowest we see him all season

    T/up Dwyer for Cloke

    T/Down your dreaming Cloke will come down with a case of the collywobbles in no time.

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  2. There are a few very tasty options coming up I think.

    Heath Shaw it top of the backs list. Was planning to upgrade the backs last, but Heater will be hard to resist next time he has a big game

    In the midfield I have Swan, Ablett and Dangerfield and was really hoping for a second poor game this week from Watson and/or Selwood but then JPK has popped up as a great option. Only had one H&A score in the 90’s last season so in a few weeks he will join my side.

    Rucks are done.

    Have four of my six forward keepers. Five and six will be S Johnson (when I can afford him) and Thomas in a few weeks (who hopefully will be near enough to a straight swap for JJK. Tex and Zorko are on the edge of the radar for me.

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  3. mark lecras? $404,000, 99.67, 33, +$33,800
    this week was his first jump in money and if he keeps playing the way he has he will have many more. Scored 91,84 when subbed with broken arm, 124 and next 5 against port, dogs, brizzy, kangas and giants. superfit with some midfield time as well. A proven goal scorer. cheap as chips id say.

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  4. Thoughts on Dal Santo. I’ve had in the team from the start as a POD midfielder but has been churning out sub 100 scores. Now a good time to offload him before his price plummets any further? Got enough in the bank to upgrade him to a Swan or Selwood.

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