The Fallen Premiums – R5

Written by MJ on April 28 2016

Defenders

Heath Shaw $552K (-$55K) AVE 98.4, BE 122 – Heater was back to his old tricks against the Sainters with 27 touches and 14 marks, running free across the half back line to do what he pleased. With the 70 in R4 lurking in his price cycle for another week, you’ve got the luxury of seeing another score before his price potentially drifts upwards again. He may not find it particularly easy v Hawthorn this week, failing to hit the ton in five of his last six against the reigning premiers. Not extremely undervalued, but worth shelling out the dough for one of the most reliable defenders to provide a healthy average. Did I just call Heath Shaw reliable? I suppose I did!

Matthew Boyd $491K (-$69.3K) AVE 91.0, BE 81 – The Bulldogs veteran hit his first ton this season in R5, crushing the Lions with 121 points from his 31 disposals. He hasn’t had trouble finding the footy, with 25+ touches in four of five games. In just 4.6% of sides, you could find yourself a nice POD in Boyd, who has a history of 100+ averages in six of the last seven years. At 34, he may well be beginning to slow, but we’ll still see plenty of big games from him in 2016.

Coming Down:
Bachar Houli $517K, BE 185
Josh Gibson $538K, BE 166
Jarrad McVeigh $542K, BE 155
Rory Laird $499K, BE 120

Midfielders

Scott Pendlebury $580K (-$47.2K) AVE 107.2, BE 104 – Pendlebury (and Collingwood) may have just kicked into gear on Monday night, looking a vastly improved side on previous weeks. A resurgent Pies outfit should help to amend Pendles’ slow start by his standards. Despite speculation he’s been played with rib soreness and more minutes down back it’s now four tons on the trot.

Adam Treloar $543K (-$33K) AVE 105.4, BE 102 – Even with Collingwood’s cold out of the blocks start to the years, Treloar has averaged 31 touches. Inefficient disposal has been his downfall in terms of SC output, but if the Pies bounce back from the poor form they’ve been showing, the pressure may lift and DE% may increase. That’s my theory anyway.

Ollie Wines $506K (-$18.5K) AVE 98.2, BE 85 – Wines has been very disappointing for all owners so far, with last week being his first week to post a massive score to justify the precious midfield spot. He was really in the thick of things last week, laying 10 tackles, gathering 24 touches of the leather and booting two goals in the loss to Geelong (128 SC). If Wines matures into the player we all know he will become, that $506K will be money very well spent.

Patrick Cripps $503K (-$15.9K) AVE 100.6, BE 81Cripps was superb in the win over the Dockers, with 29 touches and five tackles for 117 points, his best showing for the season. A continuation of that form would see him at terrific value.

Coming Down:
David Mundy $612K, BE 205
Robbie Gray $550K, BE 194
Tom Rockliff $504K, BE 163
Gary Ablett $619K, BE 154

Rucks

Let’s face it, Goldstein (BE 159) and Gawn (BE 98) are the two hottest commodities in the ruck division. With only two rucks spots to choose from, you’ve got to primarily look at grabbing the above two at some point. Nic Nat (BE 109), Mumford (BE 115), Blicavs (BE 146) and Martin (BE 171) make up the second tier. The latter two in particular, could make for undervalued pick ups next week.

Forwards

Michael Barlow $473K (-$32.3K) AVE 85.8, BE 67 – Ross Lyon must have told him to lift on behalf of SuperCoaches all across the land. Barlow laid a ridiculous 14 tackles, helping himself to 32 touches and 128 points in the nail-biter to the Blue Baggers. He could well be one of the main beneficiaries of Fyfe’s impending absence from the game, with additional midfield minutes surely on offer.

Shaun Higgins $466K (-$48.2K) AVE 88.8, BE 86 – Hasn’t hit the ton, but has been consistently punching out scores in the 90s (98, 94, 97, 90). A score of 65 in R3 has just left his price cycle, so looks to have bottomed out in price, almost $50K below his starting issuing. Always a high risk investment with the injury history, yet has now managed to miss a total of just three games across the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

Coming Down:
Chad Wingard $434K, BE 158
Leigh Montagna $593K, BE 156
Josh Kennedy $491K, BE 136
Dustin Martin $508K, BE 135

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44 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R5”

  1. I’d forgotten about Pendles supposed injury, and 580K doesn’t seem like a huge drop. Fyfe’s injury probably means Pendles is slightly more attractive as a Top 8 mid prospect.

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  2. Is it a good idea to trade Bartel/Rich for a Pendlebury/ Priddis/Selwood.
    Thumbs up- Good plan
    Thumbs down- Back to the drawing board

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    1. Is it a good idea to trade Bartel/Rich for C Petracca this week or next week.
      Thumbs up- Good plan
      Thumbs down- Back to the drawing board

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      1. You don’t want to trade underperforming premiums. Believe me, I had a line in the sand moment last week. The sc gods did not take it lightly. Never again

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      2. Hold for now and concentrate on your rookies/cash cows. Those sort of luxury trades can be made when your team is ‘complete’ or very close to it. As seen with Fyfe, injury can happen quickly and you need your trades for exactly that……

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  3. This is probably crazy talk and I need the help of the thumbs for me to see the light. But do you think it is worth my while in the next couple of weeks trading NicNat to Goldy? I know that goes against all the rules of sideways trades but the difference between the two come the end of the year could be well over 500 points if Goldy consistently scores 30 or so points more than NicNat each round.

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    1. Got the same concern with Stef. Difference is NicNat is currently 20 points better than Stef so it is more urgent.

      I need the trades but I also need the 35 ppg….

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  4. Was wondering if I should go :
    T/U โ€“ M.Brown to Lee
    T/D โ€“ Dea to Lee
    with the cash, I intend to go B.Keneddy to Zorko!
    Thoughts appreciated.

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    1. Dea. Brown has been slower scoring therefore still has a few weeks of moo-ing. So long as they are bench only, then cull Dea.

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  5. Thanks MJ. Been hanging out for this with the AfterFyfe dilemma and getting rid of one of Lonergan or Wingard.

    I’m fully aware of the arguments for never trading your premiums, but Wingard has a history of on-off years and his current price allows me to bring in some very good quality.

    So:

    TU – Fyfe & Wingard to Pendles & Selwood

    TD – Fyfe & Lonergan to Pendles & Simpson/Franklin

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  6. What’s wveryones thoughts on Kieran Jack? $473k BE of 145 could get to around 400k. Is he worth a swap with Mills in a couple weeks?

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    1. G’day Matteo,
      I think the problem for most when looking at Jack is that there are a number of Sydney players already in teams – Parker, Hanners, TMitch have been some popular picks, along with rookies Mills and Hewitt. It may be a case of how many Sydney players can I fit in? If you haven’t got 2 or more of the above premiums, he may be a sneaky pick. Good luck with the decision champ

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      1. Thanks mate. I never worry about too many from one team. I remember having Ablett, Selwood, Bartel, Chapman & Kelly at one stage and Pendles, Beams & Swan. Never steered me wrong. Thanks for your input

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        1. Agree that having multiple players from one team makes no difference, however Jack has little chance of being a Top 8 mid, so not sure I’d want him taking up a spot.

          If he started the year at 400K, then he’d be great, but wouldn’t use a trade to bring him in, especially when he’s used in a shutdown role occasionally.

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  7. Great read as always MJ.

    Hadn’t considered Boyd, was just short of $ to go Fyfe to Parker and Lonergan to Simpson. Looks likely that I’ll do a double downgrade next week so would like to upgrade this week.

    T/U – Fyfe to Priddis and Lonergan to Boyd
    T/D – Fyfe to Hanners and Lonergan to Lee

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    1. If you think that Viney will be a top 10 midfielder come the end of the season then its a good trade. I personally believe there are other players more reliable and consistent such as Pendles, Selwood, Priddis, Parker and all have a good ceiling as well.
      I feel as though people selecting Viney are chasing points, but its down to personal opinion.
      Simpson is a good inclusion and will be a top 6 defender.

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      1. Thanks Harry!

        It was just a wild thought… Most probably I am going to make just 1 trade to bring in pendles for Fyfe and pocket some cash. Next week trade Lonergan and a rookie to get a premium and a cash cow…

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    2. G’day HB,
      Fyfe has to go and Lonergan will not be a top 10 back – I think top 20 will be a stretch the way he is going! I don’t consider trading Lonergan as a luxury trade, but rather as a ‘fix it’ trade. Viney had a good game last week, but do you think he will be a top 10 mid? It’s a no from me, but he has the potential to have a great season. I would agree to trade both, but not sold on who you are bringing in to replace them. Good luck mate

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  8. Thoughts on Mark Murphy as a fallen premium? $440K (-$116.1K) AVE 81.6, BE 121

    Price affected by two injury-related scores. I know he won’t be a Top 8 MID but should average 100+ from here on in and could be very handy as a M8/9 towards the end of the season. Bombers this week so decent chance of getting his BE.

    Crazy idea or is there some merit?

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    1. I would wait another week for him. The fact most teams aren’t tagging these days, Murphy will definitely be a beneficiary of that. I can see him averaging 100+ if he stays fit. At that price he is pretty risk free i guess.

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    2. If he’s your only real risk in midfield go for it! The Bolton effect is real!

      I’ve got Shiel & Duncan so can’t afford to go away from the main guys.

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    1. He’s played about 80 minutes midfield this season and that was all on Monday. Was playing across the half back the first 4 rounds to ‘protect his rib’ but looks as though it’s better, even if it was against Essendon.

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    2. Buckley finally played him out of the middle and his contested possession count improved, so did his SC scores.

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  9. Just the article I’ve been waiting for all week MJ

    Really want to bring 2 mids this (1 replacing Fyfe) but with Ablett having a big breakeven I think I’ll grab Boyd and get Ablett next week

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  10. Burn a luxury trade now on Stef Martin to Goldy? I think the gulf between Goldy and Gawn and the rest is looking a bridge too far at the moment, so it’s now or else wait until after Goldy’s bye.

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    1. I’m gonna keep Martin til the bye (R13) and if his scoring hasn’t improved, I’ll trade him to Maximum Gawn (R12).

      Gawn is already 620k, and Martin 515k. That 105K difference is unlikely to increase significantly so you won’t lose much (apart from points) by holding Martin and seeing how he recovers.

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