The Fallen Premiums – R9, 2015

Written by MJ on June 3 2015

Defenders

Kade Simpson $477,400 (-$35,400; AVE 93.86, BE 47, PTA 95.4) Scoring 89 this week in the massive loss to the Swans is acceptable in my book. He’ll stay on this list for another week before sailing into $500k range on the back of that 149 a fortnight ago. As mentioned last week, his record against his upcoming opponent is an impressive one. He’s running at 115.2 points per game in his last five against the Crows.

Josh Gibson $481,600 (-$15,600; AVE 97.88, BE 63, PTA 96.2) Gibbo endured a lean patch between R5-7 (79, 83, 83), but has bounced back with 106 and 119 in his last two. Is it coincidence that Brian Lake was absent in rounds 5, 6 and 7? I don’t think so. Gibson loves the freedom that Lake gives by taking the key forward, and his scores reflect that.

Michael Hibberd $418,100 (-$73,400; AVE 79.11, BE 55, PTA 83.6) A 78 wasn’t too inspiring a performance on the big stage, Saturday night. He’s still cheap for the potential he brings, but obviously comes at a risk that he just won’t return to the 90+ average we’ve become accustomed to seeing.

Returning back down to Earth:
Tom McDonald $518k; BE 157
Bachar Houli $494k; BE 150
Brodie Smith $365k; BE 128
Shaun Burgoyne $455k; BE 125
Alex Rance $450k; BE 123

Midfielders

David Mundy $562,500 (+$13,300; AVE 117.44, BE 110, PTA 112.4) This man is destroying the 2015 season, while other premiums around him falter. The third highest overall points tally in the game defies his price tag, that has been reduced substantially over the last month due to the 85 he dropped in R7. His TOG was down by 10-15 minutes on his usual gametime, due to the head clash he sustained with Adam Goodes in Q3. This incident alone, has brought his price down by $39,500 in the last three weeks. This has been the sole blemish on a remarkable season for Mundy, with a flawless set of triple figures in the rest of his matches.

Ollie Wines $514,400 (-$24,700; AVE 106.80, BE 83, PTA 102.8) Subbed out in R3 with a broken wrist for 76 has taken his price down to nearly $25k below his starting figure. Many of us selected the young Port Adelaide wrecking ball in our R1 sides as a potential breakout bargain. He’s notched tons in all four other games he’s fronted this year, placing him in definite undervalued territory. The final bye round should suit a lot of team structures. Averaging 6.2 tackles per game (14th in the AFL).

Kieren Jack $500,800 (-$51,300; AVE 98.78, BE 74, PTA 100) He’s hanging around on the Fallen Premiums article, while he keeps banging out tons and staying cheap. 110, 105, 107 and 119 in the last month of footy is well and truly outperforming that $500k price tag. He’s in just 5,414 (2.5%) teams, would you believe it?

It feels like we’re a little light on for FP midfielders at the moment, as most of them are getting cheap, but still hold high enough breakevens that we can afford to sit on them for another week or two, including:

Josh Kennedy $560k; BE 159
Jobe Watson $486k; BE 149
Luke Parker $553k; BE 147
Trent Cotchin $547k; BE 141
Dyson Heppell $532k; BE 130
Steve Johnson $460k; EB 129
Joel Selwood $495k; BE 128
Callan Ward $531k; BE 127
Scott Pendlebury $574k; BE 126
Adam Treloar $519k; BE 120

Rucks

Nic Naitanui $461,300 (-$27,000; AVE 93.89, BE 21, PTA 92.2) He tempts us every season doesn’t he!? When you see him leaping over tall buildings to take pack marks on a Sunday afternoon again, it’s enough to get your finger twitching over the Trade In button. He’s cheap, he’s coming off two hundreds, but there’s always that ever present risk of missing games.

Rucks you could wait another week for:
Sam Jacobs $543k; BE 143
Shane Mumford $551k; BE 142
Todd Goldstein $511k; BE 128

Forwards

Lance Franklin $468,600 (-$68,600; AVE 94.78, BE 83, PTA 93.6) Two goalless matches in his last month of football had Buddy in a form slump, before 7 straight sausage rolls against Mottsy’s mob has have his tail up, ready to give Gold Coast and North Melbourne a similar serve. You’d have been well and truly satisfied with his 149 on debut if you snapped him up last week. A similar question mark to Nic Nat though; how many games will he miss this season? (He’s missed at least three in each of the last five years).

Dayne Zorko $406,300 ($125,600; AVE 83.00, BE 93, PTA 81.2) I can’t see too many jumping all over him at the moment, especially since he hasn’t raised the bat since R3. He is worth keeping in the back of your mind though, as we have seen him average 100 in the past. Maybe the absence of Rocky for a month will allow him to chew up some additional midfield minutes? Speculative, but very cheap if he can regain some form.

On the decline:
Eddie Betts $496k; BE 166
Jarryd Roughead $491k; BE 164
Matthew Pavlich $414k; BE 148
Marcus Bontempelli $435k; BE 136
Brendan Goddard $551k; BE 130
Brent Harvey $491k; BE 117

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31 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R9, 2015”

  1. I like Mundy but am worried about bringing in anyone from Fremantle. The way they are going I’m expecting rest and rotation and missd games at the end of the season. I’m pondering bringing in some Hawks after R11. (Hardly an original idea.)

    Beginning to lean towards Wines. I need three more premiums in my mids and unsure if he will be in the top 8.

    What do you all think about that? Wines a good candidate for the top 8-10 mids?

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  2. Great write up MJ. I will consider Gibson and Wines this week. He is not a fallen premium but I am also looking at Dalhaus, very consistent year this far.

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  3. Nice one, MJ! Plenty to think about there. Just hard to find the right premiums so close to the bye rounds. Definitely need to tweak the Team Schwarz line-up beforehand……..

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  4. Thanks MJ. Selwwod and Watson at crazy low prices but not sure either will finish strongly enough to bring in.

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  5. I’ve been looking at Franklin all week but really don’t like his inconsistency. It’s a great time to pick him up, but he can be the player who wins or looses you league matches.

    I’ve been considering Travis Boak. Fits much better into my bye structure and now has a BE of 96. Could he be a top 8 mid?

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  6. Continuing to roll the dice and have gone with:
    Krak > Ward
    T.Miller > Ollie

    Rocky can hang around on the bench and when he is back my mid 8 is complete.

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  7. G’day all

    I need to trade in a round 11 bye defender for Oxley this week. I have approximately $130K, so I am thinking using either 1 or 2 trades:

    T/up Oxley (BE = 96) + McKenzie (BE = 13) – to Hodge + Dumont
    T/down Oxley – to either Gibson or Simpson (cant afford Hodge)

    I would prefer Hodge to the other two, but can’t afford him without doing 2 trades.

    If trade down, would also be really appreciated if anyone can somehow “split” Simpson or Gibson for me? I always stay away from key defenders, and have had a pretty consistent / reliable Simpson in my side for a few years – but surely this is Simpsons last year (and surely Carlton will start playing a lot more kids).

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  8. What do people think on making a security blanket downgrade this week?

    I’ve budgeted to bring in Hodge, Dahlhaus and Lewis r12, but will only have $30k wiggle room for price fluctuation. If I go Brown to Dumont, for example, that takes wiggle room out of the question.

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  9. Mate you’ve done another brilliant write up. This is the hardest week I’ve faced this year. Do I bring in buddy? Wines? boak? Wallis? Or downgrade to Dunnut? Do I sit tight and wait for the byes? Should I hold Rocky? Maybe I should just have a scotch to get rid of this migraine!

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  10. Great write up MJ looking at bringing in a mid but only ones I like is dangerfield or armitage but could also think of getting wines I had him before his injury, don’t like dangerfield because of his R11 bye and armitage fits into my bye structure the best

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