The Fallen Premiums – Rd 15

Written by Chillo on July 4 2018

Obviously there is a focus on premium midfielders this week, but there are also a couple of very tempting budget options available in the forward line!

It’s getting to that time of year where savvy coaches start to look around, searching for discounted options to put on their bench as emergency or loophole options. If you have the trades to spare then by all means go for it, with one proviso – if you’re looking to use the loophole with that final on-field position, take a quick peek at the upcoming schedule to ensure your choices are viable for that strategy. That rolling lockout can be cruel!

DEFENDERS

Shannon HURN (WCE), $465 500 (-$21.7K), average 99, BE 70 – The Eagles skipper with the booming right slipper has been rock-solid in 2018, averaging just shy of the ton. Currently fourth among defenders in scoring aggregate, he knocked up 116 from 24 touches last time out against the Crows. Hurn is a crucial cog in the Eagles’ defence, and is worthy of consideration if you still have a free spot in your backline.

Backing it up…
Tom McDonald, $530K, BE 196
Luke Ryan, $486K, BE 157

 MIDFIELDERS

Luke SHUEY (WCE), $368 000 (-$161.1K), average 83, BE 54 – Shuey’s form is pretty close to non-existent, but we all know what he’s capable of and he is so, so cheap! Missed five weeks with a hammy earlier in the year, but did compile 115 against the Crows last week. Shuey averaged 100+ in 2012, 2014 and 2016, and shapes as an ideal M9 option for the run home.

Scott PENDLEBURY (COL), $497 500 (-$89.0K), average 102, BE 61 – Dependlebury hasn’t quite rediscovered his touch since he missed the back end of 2017 with two bouts of finger surgery. However, scores of 136 and 108 in the past fortnight put his break-even at very tempting levels, and you can expect Pendles to step up in Treloar’s absence. Gentle reminder: prior to last seaosn, Pendlebury had averaged 110+ in SEVEN consecutive seasons.

Have you heard that Pendlebury has a basketball background? True story.

Matt CROUCH (ADE), $483 000 (-$125.3K), average 97, BE 75 – There are two major factors (besides budget price) pointing to Crouch this week. One, his midfield buddy Sloane is back to help him out in the engine room, and two, will you have a look at way Crouch finished 2017! Let me save you the effort: 125 ppg after the bye….

Joel SELWOOD (GEE), $523 300 (-$38.7K), average 108, BE 81 – The Cats champ with the hardest head in the game is once again a top 10 midfielder in 2018, but stands at just 8% ownership. Selwood has recorded 25+ disposals eleven times in 14 games this season, and you can be fairly sure he won’t be “rested” in the forward line in a close game!

I didn’t have enough time or space to write them up in more detail, but Lachie Neale ($568 300, 109, 76), Dayne Beams ($474 900, 94, 62) and Dyson Heppell ($455 700, 99, 61) are all great options this week too.

Limbo land…
Clayton Oliver, $545K, BE 167
Rory Sloane, $503K, BE 160
Oliver Wines, $543K, BE 147
Marcus Bontempelli, $532K, BE 145

RUCK

Sam JACOBS (ADE), $443 200 (-$83.1K), average 85, BE 0 – I won’t be picking him and neither should you, but we’re entering the endgame now so it’s worth noting the upswing in Sauce’s recent form (126 & 145). I don’t want to tempt fate…but history suggests at least one prominent ruckman is going to get injured by the end of the year! If he maintains his current form, Jacobs would be a worthy budget replacement. Note for future reference.

Just for information purposes….
Max Gawn, $605K, BE 86
Brodie Grundy, $602K, BE 119 

FORWARDS

Jack RIEWOLDT (RIC), $364 400 (-$90.8K), average 82, BE 11 – Tiger Jack made a complete mockery of Sydney’s vaunted defence in last Thursday’s blockbuster, racking up an incredible 16 marks (7 contested) and 135 points. His recovery from a Carlisle-induced concussion he received a month ago has been a slow one, but he was averaging 92 prior to that incident. Fantastic F7 option this week, along with….

Things are looking up for Billings

Jack BILLINGS (STK), $355 500 (-$154.0K), average 73, BE 23 – Yep, I really am recommending you bring in Billings this week! I don’t know what happened in that week that St Jack was dropped to the VFL, but he has looked like a different player since then – confident, composed and skilful. Scores of 99 and 96 in the past fortnight, and a post-bye average of 98 last year, all indicate that good times are ahead for Billings.

Forward thinking….
Isaac Heeney, $509K, BE 197
Tom McDonald, $530K, BE 196

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14 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 15”

  1. Great write up Chillo. I am keen on Crouch but would like to see one more game before I bring him in.

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        1. I’d like to know the answer to that one too, so I’ll crunch the numbers at lunchtime and get back to you on that.

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  2. Great write up Chillo,I can’t believe the price Pendlebury’s at, his average suggests he should be priced at around 545k and his 50k cheaper, if I didn’t already have him I’d be all over him like a cheap suit, and Heppell , welcome to my side, he’s a 100k cheaper.

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  3. Ok, for the Jester and anyone else who’s interested, I looked at Neale’s stats since 2015, when he could first be regarded as a premium.
    In that time, he has played 79 out of a possible 80 games (worth noting in itself), and averaged 108.6 ppg.
    Sandilands AND Fyfe have played together in 41 of those games, in which Neale averaged 108.5, i.e comparable to his overall output.
    In the 15 games where Fyfe played but Sandi didn’t, Neale averaged 102.6.
    In the 6 games where Sandi played but Fyfe didn’t, Neale averaged 111.5.
    And in the 17 games where neither Fyfe nor Sandi played, Neale averaged 113.2.
    The take-home message is that based on history, Neale’s scoring is not adversely affected by the loss of Fyfe and Sandilands, and may even slightly benefit from their combined absence.

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    1. Important addendum!

      In 2016, Neale averaged 114 when Fyfe and/or Sandilands were missing, against 96 when all three played (albeit that only happened twice that season).
      In 2017, the numbers reversed, and Neale averaged 121 when all three played together, against 98.5 when Fyfe and/or Sandilands were absent.
      It’s possible that between 2016 and 2017, opposition teams starting targeting Lachie as the number one mid when Fyfe wasn’t there?
      I haven’t sold him very well here, but my humble opinion is that he’s pretty good at footy, and will probably be good for your SuperCoach team, with or without Fyfe and 211!

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      1. Brilliant Chillo, cheers!

        I was surprised to see Fyfe has only been tagged twice this season and only twice last season. Neale has only been tagged once during that time and scored 94 at Geelong. My perception is that he can put in a shocker but the facts say he has not scored below 74 this season. Last season he had two sub-sixty scores v Sydney at the SCG and v Adelaide at AO. I do not see this as an issue this year given his reminding games are played at Darwin (123 last time), Perth, ES, Perth, Perth, Perth, Geelong (94 last time) and Perth.

        My confidence in selecting him his rising!

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    2. Outstanding, Chillo

      Got Neale in last week as my final mid (just) over JPK ( or should I say, thought it was my final mid spot).

      Heppell is tempting, well unders at $455k IMO

      If I get Heppell for Fyfe replacement, that would allow me the $$$$ to upgrade T Smith if not picked again to Billings as (F9), which also allows me to loophole Billings/Ahern this week for Heeney!

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  4. Why no Gaff. Only 2 sub 100pt games. 4 +120pt games.
    Draw doesn’t effect him, like most prem players it doesn’t matter who you play. Only Eagle worth having in the mid.
    T/U Go Gaff
    T/D No Gaff

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