The Fallen Premiums – Rd 20

Written by Huttabito on August 8 2018

On one hand, there is the Brett Eddy who is a late inclusion and scores 42 points for many SuperCoachers using him as captains loophole. On the other, there is Nic Newman, who under the same circumstances comes in and scores 151 points 5 weeks later. I’m hoping to be the later!

DEFENDERS

My first glace down the list up back and there really isn’t any juicy options with a low BE to jump on… Not ideal for those still in the market for a Savage replacement! Anyway…

Shannon Hurn (WCE), $462700 (-$12.7k), average 97.7, BE 93 – He’s not really that “fallen” but he definitely sticks out as the No1 option for the defenders in the mid 400k range. With so much attention being paid to Jeremy McGovern this year, Hurn has been left as the player maker coming out of the Eagles defence. He currently leads the competition in marks taken and has the highest disposal efficiency (87.2%) for anyone with more than 110 disposals this season. These two rather impressive stats combined means he’s arguably one of the most consistent defender for 2018 and a handy player to rely on in the SuperCoach finals, at a very nice price.

Backing down…
Jeremy Howe, $446k, BE 164
Rory Laird, $510k, BE 147
Jayden Short, $446k, BE144

MIDFIELDERS

Jack Macrae (WB), $551400 (+$1.7k), average 124.3, BE 71 – Over the last 5 rounds that Jack has played, he’s either had a 51 (injured) or a 74 (tagged) rolling through his price cycle meaning you can now buy an uber-premium at a very discounted price. Over the last two weeks Macrae has put up 147 against Port Adelaide and a 121 against the Saints where he was tagged (or at least attempted to be) which has sent his BE down 50+ points below his average. Over the next two weeks he faces the Jacobs-less North Melbourne and Carlton who are bleeding points left, right and centre to opposition midfielders. There are two things I can all but guarantee you: He’s not getting any cheaper and if you don’t have him, the next two weeks will sting.

Joel Selwood (Geel), $466200 (+$2.5k), average 105, BE 76 – It wasn’t long ago this year that Jelwood was a top 10 midfielder but as he does every single year, he had a 3 week cold patch between Rds 16-18. Like seriously, you can set your watch to it. Anyway, this has dropped his price to the mid $400k mark and with an average of 105, he sticks out like a sore thumb at this range. Geelong play against Hawks (who are missing their main tagger Howe) at the MCG this week who and where he scored 140 points on in Rd2 this season followed both Fremantle and Gold Coast at Goomba who will no doubt play him into finals form. Over the last 4 seasons, he’s averaged in excess of 120 points injury free post his 3 week quiet patch.

Limbo Land….
Nat Fyfe, $581k, BE 160 (“In the mix for a return”)
Shaun Higgins, $524k, BE 138
Scott Pendlebury, $539k, BE 133

RUCKS

What? Chillo has been banging on all season that you either rock the Gawn ($602k, 126.9 avg, 129 BE) and Grundy ($639k, 128.3 avg, 69 BE) combo, or you walk into a head-to-head game 20 points down at a minimum. Where you really thinking I was going to have a different opinion?

FORWARDS

Lance Franklin (Syd), $423500 (+$18.6k), average 97, BE 31 – If anyone can make or break your season, it’s Buddy. Last week he featured as a forward thinker but single handily bought down Collingwood kicking 6 goals from 17 disposals (15 kicks), 9 marks and 6 tackles to score 178 points smashing his BE of 135. Sydney have some must win clashes to make finals coming up and Buddy will be pivotal in their success and he averaged 148 points across the SuperCoach semi, prelim and grand final last year winning many people their leagues. Forewarning: Apparently he has barely trained all season but watching him last weekend you wouldn’t know any different.

Mitch Robinson (Bris), $376700 (+$0.6k), average 92, BE 33 – One thing you can’t accuse Robbo of being is soft and he loves the contested ball and tackle which champion data love. He started the season as a great POD and was one of the top scoring forwards averaging 102 across the first 11 rounds before succumbing to injury. He’s had a few quiet weeks since his return (47 and 36 in rounds 16 and 18) which has seen his price free fall from $520k after the bye. His recent outing saw him post 120 points courtesy of 23 disposals, 9 marks and 2 goals against North Melbourne which marks his first triple digit score post injury. If you are really tight on funds, he’s worth the punt as the young Brisbane team will rely on his seniority and experience to close out their 2018 campaign strongly.

Forward thinking….
Toby Greene, $367k, BE 152
Tom Hawkins, $569k, BE 140
Devon Smith, $502k, BE 125

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5 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 20”

  1. Nice work Hutta. Re: the rucks, Goldstein had been scoring well recently until Grundy outscored him by 100 points last week. I’d hate to go into a grand final without Gawn and Grundy.

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    1. Their ceiling and level of consistency has been insane. I know the stats show that the No1 ruck never backs themselves up, but Gawn and Grundy are just hitting their prime, it’s really hard not seeing those two as the set/forgot combo for years to come.

      I really hope there is a cheap R2 for next year to start with just one of the two to relieve some pressure on the salary cap before bringing in the other.

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    2. I will be starting next year with BOTH Grundy and Gawn unless something untoward happens to either between now and then. I know that they’ll both be priced around $705k, but if I’m going for overall, I don’t think I can really afford to miss their output from the start. Yes, it’ll mean compromising other lines, but not to the extent I thought. We’ll see.

      The only thing that might make me reconsider that plan, is if they have the same bye again. Fingers crossed.

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  2. I traded out Buddy for The Chad after a number of bad weeks….. and the advise he’s only trained for 20mins. It cost me a win my first final.

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  3. Good work Hutta. I like the Cats run home too. I know GAJ was below his best last week, but check his record against the Hawks. Expect a big ‘un this week

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