The Melbourne Cup poll

Written by Motts on November 3 2018

Who will place in the Cup?

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18 thoughts on “The Melbourne Cup poll”

  1. TDA’s narrow tri for the PC:

    3,11 to win – 1,2,3,5,9,11,22,23 for 2nd – 1,2,3,5,9,10,11,17,21,22,23,24 for 3rd.

    $15 buys 10.71%

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  2. TDA’s wide box tri:

    3,5,9,11,23 to win – 1,2,3,5,9,10,11,17,21,22,23,24 for 2nd – 1,2,3,5,6,7,9,10,11,17,21,22,23,24 for 3rd

    $33 buys 5%

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      1. Nearly left Cross Counter out for 1st , but threw it in and took less percentage. However I take no credit for it as it was everyone who voted that got us a small collect on the trifecta as I just put it together according to the poll. Glad Finche finished 4th.

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  3. Thanks Motts!

    Just to let everyone in the club know I have put these Trifectas on representing the polls with the odd Captain’s call only throwing The Barman for 3rd even though it had 2 votes as a 10 Year Old is only a sentimental bet. However, I threw Gai’s Runaway only 2 votes in for 2nd as can’t underestimate Gai. I could only squeeze in Sound Check as the only 1 voter for 3rd to make the Trifecta.

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  4. Mottsy’s Sure Things tomorrow:
    Randwick R2 Napoleon Solo
    Doomben R1 Pizonie
    Ascot R8 Arcadia Queen
    Canberra R1 Maid of Ore
    Echuca R2 Rhyming Verses
    The Golden State Warriors

    Mottsy’s Cup Tips
    Magic Circle & Marmelo

    Mottsy’s Roughies
    Flemington R3 Man From Uncle
    Flemington R5 Extreme Pride
    Flemington R6 Honeysuckle Choice
    Flemington R8 Radipole
    Flemington R10 Jester Halo
    Morphettville R5 Celebrity Reign

    All the best to you!

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  5. Gator Mail
    PLEASE NOTE:
    All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for GOOD/ SOFT track. Rail comes out 2m. Track played very well here on Saturday. At this meeting last year the inside had ‘’compacted down’’ and there was a district advantage to on-pace/ inside rail runners. With the predicted rain Monday and Tuesday this should offset any potential inside bias this year however, do watch and monitor if possible, as always…

    BET OF THE DAY
    FLEMINGTON – Race 6 No.12 – MIRETTE – Walked in maiden and race rated enormous, runner-up the won by 10L. Wide off strong speed in G1 latest and battled super! Draws out but that may just mean better odds (fence off yet?). Keen runs well.

    BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
    FLEMINGTON – Race 2 No.10 – SHOKORA – Was not far off runner-up here in Listed grade behind G1-competitive Eckstein (race rated well) then luckless MV on biased track and winner broke the track record. Stupid odds $17.

    BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
    FLEMINGTON – Race 9 No.13 – AFTER ALL THAT – Flew late fresh and crossed line with G1 winner Brave Smash then way back on bog track latest and jock couldn’t see! Horse still ran on under no riding (ran very well). First go straight but can see him running a great race here at a big price.

    TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

    FLEMINGTON

    Race 1 – G3 Bumble Stks – 2YOF – 1000m
    12 – STILL SINGLE – 1st-start. Smart trial win then won jumpout here untouched. Cost $500k.
    1 – CHAMPAGNE BOOM – Looked smart on debut when darted away late and second and third horse’s ran 2nd and 5th at MV last Saturday behind another smart type.
    11 – SISSTAR – 1st-start. Led/ Won two trials and had bit in hand. Sister to star filly Sunlight who won G1 here Saturday.
    2 – MAGNICITY – Was in betting on debut off nice trial form but was wide on strong speed and had to tire. Improver.
    7 – DREAMTIME LADY – 1st-start. Has jumped out well, twice showing good natural speed/ ability.

    Race 2 – Mares Hcp – 1700m
    10 – SHOKORA – Was not far off runner-up here in Listed grade behind G1-competitive Eckstein (race rated well) then luckless MV on biased track and winner broke the track record. Stupid odds $17.
    12 – ONE MORE TRY – Good mare with big finish and comes off terrific Bendigo win when running home some 8L faster than class average, with 60kg! She drops 54kg here… Also looks overs !
    1 – MRS GARDENIA – Just even Caulfield but race was run very slowly then slow out last week at MV and her race was over given the savage bias. Is G2 placed. Has Oregon’s Day form!
    5 – MAMZELLE TESS – Super genuine and flying. Railed through (best ground) MV and chased Shoko. Was not far off some class girls prior in G2 Blazer Stks here. Draw ideal. Never runs poorly!
    8 – MISS SISKA – Didn’t have ton of luck key stage latest and was leaders day. Won 1700m three-back. Maps nicely here. Chance.

    Race 3 – BM90 – 1400m
    10 – FIFTY STARS – Promising horse but has come up very short. Had his chance to reel in Manuel latest but he has weight swing today (2kg) and 3rd-up so has more upside. The race rated well. Rain will not hurt.
    1 – MAN FROM UNCLE – Finally, finally gets out to 1400m. Sectionals were good fresh in fast race (Eduardo form) then had one of the better closing 200m splits of the day last time. Gone up massive odds $26. HE can win here despite 60kg.
    12 – BEAU GESTE – Nice trial before fresh run which was better than it looks on paper (raced tight/ rain late) then sound home on wet last time. Placed to Sambro 3rd-up last prep and ran very well in Carbine Club Stks here as 3yo last year.
    7 – FOX HALL – Worked form wide gate and only worn down late fresh at Geelong in good race. Won Bm78 2nd-up last prep then G3 placed here to Hellova Street who’d be in market here… Chance for sure !
    4 – SUNCRAZE – Ran on well on tough track latest and only the handy Warranty had quicker last 600m split prior. Draws out. Is up to these….
    2 – MANUEL – Was only 3rd-up and held off fave here Fifty Stars latest and race rated well as mentioned. Bit harder at the weights but must have a case !!

    Race 4 – BM96 – 2800m
    4 – ETAH JAMES – Can improve sharply here at odds. Fresh run was lovely work then has had three forgive runs when wide/ working and finally draws a gate here. Walked in a G3 at end of last prep at 2600m. One run here very good.
    2 – BERISHA – Warmed up nicely late in Bendigo Cup at G3 level and it was a tough day to swoop! Stays well so to 2800m here back to BM96 grade who looks well placed, and is over the odds too. Doesn’t want it too wet is all…
    1 – SIN TO WIN – Wide in G1 Metrop and stuck well. Worked home nicely late in Herbert Power behind Melb Cup fave and finished near Gallic Chieftain who then ran OK in a Caulfield Cup. Has won to 3200m!
    12 – STEEL PRINCE – Going super and has more upside than many here… Super genuine. Stuck on well latest and drops in weights. No knock.
    10 – SHRAAOH – Resumes. First Oz start. Thrashed by Hamada latest but he then won G3. Won 2816m prior. Big watch here !!

    Race 5 – 3YO SWP – 1000m
    7 – FINE DANE – Should have beaten Beauty last time when $1.75F. Wine then won again MV Cox Plate Day. Wide yet challenged Written By prior and he just went down narrowly in G1 Coolmore.
    3 – LEGEND OF CONDOR – Onto better than heavy ground latest and ran home well (in best ground) to Diplomatico (well beaten in Coolmore Stks) but do feel he’s even better suited better than Soft-7 and ran a greta race fresh (dry) to Sandbar (good form). Back to 1000m? Gate 2?
    8 – SINGULAR SENSATION – Resumes. Smart trial win at home. Unbeaten and brilliant in both wins in first prep and in latest she ran home in similar splits to smart older mare Winter Bride!
    1 – NOMOTHAJ – Resumes. Beat Ranier and Sunlight on debut here. Is unbeaten here! Not easy giving weight to males is all…
    5 – ROOSEVELT – Awesome win WFM and race rated through the roof. Didn’t quicken latest on tough track but came again late and wasn’t far off Fine Dane when they clashed in Sept.

    Race 6 – Listed Black Stks – 3YOF SWP – 1400m
    12 – MIRETTE – Walked in maiden and race rated enormous, runner-up the won by 10L. Wide off strong speed in G1 latest and battled super! Draws out but that may just mean better odds (fence off yet?). Keen runs well.
    6 – ARISTOCRATIC MISS – Wide last time in same race as Mirette (forgive). Was not far off Maid Of Heaven (won G1) in hot Flight Stks (Oohood/ Fundamentalist etc). To 1400m but chance !
    9 – INTO THE ABYSS – Wide fresh and only 3L off G1 winner Sunlight then no luck key stage MV and should have won it for mine. Draws out. Goes in !
    1 – ENBIHAAR – Slow out latest and ran on well latest when 3L off Sunlight and crossed line with Into The Abyss. Draws better than a few key rivals today…
    17 – NOTATION – Smart debut win in slick time/ sections then to BM64 and walked in last time.
    4 – EAWASE – Pattern/ Tempo against latest (ran well) and also a key hope…
    2 – KHULAASA – Must have case off that (and Ranier form) also…

    RACE 7 – G1 MELBOURNE CUP – 3200m

    3 – MAGIC CIRCLE – First Oz start. Arrives here off two big 6L wins and thrashed Red Verdon (then ran well in Caulfield Cup) and A Prince Of Arran (beat him 9L) and he then won Lexus Saturday and chased fave Yucatan prior. He thrashed Weekender who then sat wide and was good behind Muntahaa. Is so strong at the end of his races and proven stayer whilst many key rivals are unknown at 3200m.
    11 – YUCATAN – To put it simply. His Herbert Power Hcp win was the best Cup trial I have seen! Wide/ Worked mid race yet raced away and was eased down to a walk yet beat Lexus quinella A Prince Of Arran and Brimham Rocks. No reason to doubt him at 3200m (yet to race beyond 2419m). Go well !!
    23 – CROSS COUNTER – Lightly-raced potential superstar with 51kg here and beat Kew Gardens last start, he then won G1 St Leger and cats like he will stay no worries. Had small set-back when landing here and missed two days work, not ideal…. Still, fancy he can win
    5 – MUNTAHAA – First Oz start. Had 61kg in Ebor yet travelled up sweetly and thrashed Weekender which clearly ties in with Magic Circle. No issues 3200m him. Outsped at 2400m when beaten by Caul Cup winner Best Solution prior.
    22 – YOUNGSTAR – Way back in slowly run Caulfield Cup yet rattled late running fastest last 200m there. Made Winx work tp beat her prior and beat MV Cup winner Ventura Storm. Is she seasoned enough against the wave of internationals?? Has looked a real stayer all through Qld prep so fancy she will eat 3200m. The overs ??
    24 – ROSTROPOVICH – Shared speed (good speed) in Cox Plate and held on fairly. Plummets in weights away from WFA and gets out to staying trip, likely ridden a bit more conservatively…. Like the Saxon Warrior form at home and Old Persian form ties in Cross Counter.
    9 – MARMELO – Very good Vs pattern running on in Caulfield Cup last year then ridden right on-speed in this race last year and faded late but stable said he didn’t back up. Has won 3000m so fancy trip is ok, bet they ride bit colder. Like the fact they are going at this race fresh this year. Beat Weekender three-back… That ties it all in !!
    2 – THE CLIFFSOFMOHER – Did lay in in Caulfield Cup (was he super genuine ?) but looking at the splits home he mathematically had no hope of reeling them in… Has beaten Yucatan! Unproven 3200m.
    17 – A PRINCE OF ARRAN – Strong Lexus win Saturday. Chased hard and was on heels of an eased down Yucatan prior and meets him 2.5kg better. Thrashed by Magic Circle at home but meets him 5.5kg better.
    1 – BEST SOLUTION – Went for home early in Cauffield Cup but defied them all for great win given he had top-weight. That’s three straight G1 wins now. Never been to 3200m and stays 57.5kg here.

    Race 8 – Listed Plate – 1800m
    11 – MURAAQEB – Got lost in Toorak last time yet had race-fastest last 200m. Close-up in track record Eprom Hcp prior and these are hot form races. Back a notch here and stays down in weights. First go 1800m.
    14 – TAKE IT INTERN – Looked in need of the run at Oz debut yet rattled home late behind Cliff’s Edge (since run well in Toorak/ and won G2). Dominant beating handy one latest and he was coming off neat win himself. Still on the up and 1800m ideal.
    7 – KIWIA – Looked great fresh and produced a terrific run weaving through and running home pianist the pattern with 60kg. Winner there was alongside Cliff’s Edge at end of G1 on Saturday here. Yes 1800m.
    3 – LIFE LESS ORDINARY – Going super. Made godo ground here on Saturday in G1 with bit against when back at 1600m. Excellent second this race last year.
    1 – STAMPEDE – Led and bolted din fresh on heavy (and biased) track but he was terrific. Good 2nd-up horse. Stakes winner at 2000m. Has 60kg but winning hope.
    4 – SOVEREIGN NATION – Bias against latest… Heads stack of other hopes.

    Race 9 – Listed MSS Sprint – 1200m
    13 – AFTER ALL THAT – Flew late fresh and crossed line with G1 winner Brave Smash then way back on bog track latest and jock couldn’t see! Horse still ran on under no riding (ran very well). First go straight but can see him running a great race here at a big price.
    14 – GALAXY RAIDER – Resumes. Held-up hopelessly here fresh last prep then absolutely flew when clear running freakish last 200m split. Has trialed super. With clear air he will be flying late… Overs also ??
    5 – BRAVE SONG – Had good run but beat good field last time. Limited luck prior being Trekking and two straight track runs good, one was a win the other a G3 third to Voodoo Lad (then flying) and Home Of The Brave (then beat star sprinters in Sydney).
    6 – TREKKING – His turn to be luckless last time. Had the run prior/ won well and beat Brave Song. In well relative weights. Good 1200m horse.
    17 – TELEPLAY – Very nice work late 2nd-up Vs pattern off smart fresh win and she is very much on the up… Good roughie also ??
    2 – FIRST AMONG EQUALS – Throat issue latest. forgive. Just missed Dothraki and Ball Of Muscle prior (ties in/ good form).
    15 – ACQUME – Has case also….

    Race 10 – G3 HKJC Stks – Mares SWP – 1400m
    3 – NOIRE – Ran on well in G1 on Saturday. Great in fast G1 prior. To 1400m but if they back-up…. Top-rater !!
    12 – SAVATIANO – Found 1600m too far latest and bias was against. Badly blocked her prior and flew home. Wide/ Excellent prior (that form strong !!).
    2 – ELLICAZOOM – Risk if wet but can win if dry. Chased Winter Bride and sailed by I Am Excited before wet/ forgive run last time…
    1 – PEDRENA – Trialled well before forgive run fresh when up duelling for lead. Won G3 2nd-up last prep. Won this 2nd-up the prep prior. Improver !!
    9 – RESIN – Luckless Saturday. Goes close if they back-up here….
    4 – PRINCESS POSH – Closed off with 59kg Vs bias MV and beat Savatiano back in Sept….Drops to 1400m but a must include !
    16 – SPLIT LIP – Strong late latest and looks ready now… Gate ok? Has race fallen away with scratchings ???

    Good luck

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