The Second SC Day of Christmas

Written by Thommo on December 15 2018

On the second day of Christmas, the Supercoach Gods brought to me, two winged crows…

And Paddy switched to Mid-forward D-P-P

BRODIE SMITH (ADE) DEF $332,500

2018 Average: 88ppg

2018 Games: 2 games

Past Averages (2017-2013): 82, 75, 76, 94, 75

Bye Round: 14

ARE WE DOING THIS?

I don’t think I am the only person who placed Brodie Smith on the Higgins List a few years ago yet here we are! The best way for a player to rediscover relevance is to miss a year of football (not that I would recommend it!).

Before we proceed, let me give a public service announcement: If you start with Smith, you need to be prepared for rollercoaster scores. Having said that, Brodie is likely to pump out enough big scores to spike his price. Just look at the scores he produced in his 2 matches on his return from injury in late 2018, starting with 45 points in his return match but then crushing out 129 points in just his second match.

However we can’t blame injury for inconsistent scoring. Looking at Smith’s last full season (2017) he was up and down all year throwing in 7 scores over 90 (with a high of 127 points) but also a low score of 35 points against Brisbane.

Not ideal, but he’s cheap and he will allow us to load up in the forward line.

PROJECTED SCORE

I can’t see much above 80-85ppg but his price is likely to approach $450k during his good runs of form.

BRAD CROUCH (ADE) MID $418,000

2018 Average: DNP

2018 Games: DNP

Past Averages (2017-2013): 96, 87, 0, 95, 87

NO REALLY, ARE WE DOING THIS???

Hell no! I’ll consider Brodie Smith but Brad Crouch just doesn’t have the upside worthy of selection. Crouch can score premium numbers as seen by his 107ppg average across 12 rounds in the second half of 2017, but he has never played more than 17 regular season matches in a season. In fact, Brad Crouch has only played 61 matches in 6 years including finals. For those who can’t divide, that is 10 matches per season in 6 years!

To make matters worse, he has never actually averaged over 100ppg for an entire season either.

Can you smell what I’m cooking here?

Ignore the hype the media is creating, quoting Crouch as saying, “he feels, the best he has in years,” and just say no.

PROJECTED SCORE

Does it matter? Even if he records a career high average, you’ll spend your year nervously watching the SA football media for reports of Brad Crouch pinging yet another hamstring.

Prediction #1 – He’ll average 95-100ppg

Prediction #2 – You won’t own him.

Any interest in Brodie or Brad?

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6 thoughts on “The Second SC Day of Christmas”

  1. I’m skeptical on both as I don’t believe there is enough upside to justify the risk. It would take a big JLT for me to change my mind. I’d take Libba or Hanners (both cheaper) before Crouch.

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    1. It depends on whether we can find enough rookies. If we can’t, then midprice madness beckons same as this time every year.

      Once we have enough certainty on the rookies, risky “But he’s got 20 points of upside” players tend to get relegated to the “Yeah but nah” pile.

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