Total Pts vs Average

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 23 2019

(Written & Created By Macca)

 

We have produced countless articles already this pre-season, all aimed at providing information that may provide you with that little kernel to help you improve your SC year.

 

Perusal of the Pre-Season FormGuide gives you a wealth of information at your fingertips, from Schwarzies early review of the positions, to AllSaints early season strategy articles, to Adam’s insane stats on … well everything, all the team reviews and the various player reviews as well as Thommo’s +10 Club articles, what seems like a thousand other articles and now the Bye Planner.

 

I am looking at generating a discussion now on, when selecting your guns, and chasing OA glory, is it better to go off total points or averages? In theory, they should be the same … right? And, when looking at last years final results, they are … but you have to also factor in the number of games played.

A player, say Sicily, may have a really good looking average (if you only look at averages) – third highest at 105.1 … BUT he only played 14 games. He is therefore not even in the top 20 highest scoring defenders. So, to select him this year, you are taking the leap of faith that his average will continue, and he will play a lot more than 14 games. OR, are you better off selecting Jack Crisp, who only had the seventh best average at 95.8, but had the sixth most points scored, 2107, and played all 22 games?

After all, total points scored is what wins this thing. So, that said … lets look at each of the lines and compare the highest points scored and the highest averages … and see where that leaves us?

 

DEFENDERS FIRST

HIGHEST TOTAL POINTS

Name

Club

Position

Start Price

2018 Total

2018 Games

2018 Avg.

2017 Avg.

2016 Avg.

Lloyd, Jake

Swans

D

$608,200

2,465

22

112

87

85

Simpson, Kade

Blues

D

$570,300

2,206

21

105

94

106

Whitfield, Lachlan 

Giants

D

$542,100

2,197

22

99.9

98

81

Laird, Rory

Crows

D

$587,600

2,165

20

108.2

100

97

Hurn, Shannon

Eagles

D

$523,400

2,121

22

96.4

89

82

Crisp, Jack

Pies

D

$519,900

2,107

22

95.8

83

86

Johannisen, Jason

Bulldogs

D

$465,600

1,887

22

85.8

82

94

Short, Jayden

Tigers

D

$465,600

1,887

22

85.8

58

63

McGovern, Jeremy

Eagles

D

$483,100

1,869

21

89

91

88

Tuohy, Zach

Cats

D

$460,400

1,866

22

84.8

88

81

Rance, Alex

Tigers

D

$448,100

1,816

22

82.5

90

98

Shaw, Heath

Giants

D

$492,400

1,814

20

90.7

83

106

 

So, if you are firmly in the camp of selecting your top 6 defenders by points and drafting your wish list, you couldn’t go wrong with Lloyd at D1 to Crisp at D6. These gents are a minimum of 200+ points better off than anyone in the next 6 on the list. 4 of them played all 22 matches, with Simpson and Laird’s averages more than making up for the smaller number of games.

Of course, you can’t start with all of them, 3 maybe 4 at most – so which ones and which ones would be upgrade targets? Or, are there possible breakouts that you may be interested in? Notice also that the earlier mentioned Sicily is not shown above. Nor are some of the other more popularly discussed potentially starting ‘breakouts’. Let’s look at averages.

 

 

HIGHEST AVERAGES

Name

Club

Position

Start Price

2018 Total

2018 Games

2018 Avg.

2017 Avg.

2016 Avg.

Lloyd, Jake

Swans

D

$608,200

2,465

22

112

87

85

Laird, Rory

Crows

D

$587,600

2,165

20

108.2

100

97

Sicily, James 

Hawks

D

$570,400

1,471

14

105.1

73

64

Simpson, Kade

Blues

D

$570,300

2,206

21

105

94

106

Whitfield, Lachlan 

Giants

D

$542,100

2,197

22

99.9

98

81

Hurn, Shannon

Eagles

D

$523,400

2,121

22

96.4

89

82

Crisp, Jack

Pies

D

$519,900

2,107

22

95.8

83

86

Howe, Jeremy 

Pies

D

$497,200

1,557

17

91.6

94

92

Suckling, Matt 

Bulldogs

D

$497,000

1,007

11

91.5

78

76

Shaw, Heath

Giants

D

$492,400

1,814

20

90.7

83

106

Hurley, Michael

Bombers

D

$491,800

1,812

20

90.6

103

 

Ryan, Luke

Dockers

D

$489,900

1,805

20

90.2

77

 

 

Looks like a pretty similar top 6 doesn’t it, with the big exception being Sicily pushing Crisp out, but only playing 14 matches. He does have an added bonus of having the first bye, the others are all in second and third.

Another popularly mentioned player is Ryan, who just makes the top 12 here. So, is he worth the risk and can he play all 22 matches as well as increase his average?

So, what else should we consider? Whitfield is being shown here even though he was in the guts last year. Will his role remain the same and thereby keep up his scoring? Will Williams return reduce his scoring? Have players roles changed? Certainly, the likes of Lloyd and Sicily saw ‘marked improvement in their averages and thus total scoring output, suggesting a significant change in their roles.

 So, the big talking point is the rule change for playing on from a behind. Lots of discussion on whether or not this will improve the scoring of some defenders … so lets factor that in too:

LLOYD: 147 of 265 kick ins. Played on 43 times.

HURN: 124 of 201 kick ins. Played on 51 times.

WITHERDEN: 126 of 248. Played on 52 times.

RYAN: 107 of 261. Freo didn’t play on much.

SIMPSON: 95 of 259. Played on 46 times.

SICILY: 64 of 208. (but he missed 8 games!) Hawks don’t play on much, but when they did it was Sicily.

Love him or hate him, he looks to be a Top6 DEF……..

 

So, all up, does any of this help you? Are you a risk taker or a safer player? If you like risks, you’ll look at Ryan, Witherden and Sicily. For your starting premos, for me, you can’t go past total points, which means playing all 22 games. I think you need to start 3 to set and forget – but it does depend on the mix of premos on your other lines … and available rookies. A premo in the mid is worth more than a premo defender … usually, so if decent rookies exist, you may start less premo defenders and more mids.

Remember, trades are gold! In general, you will be starting 13 ‘premos’. This means 9 upgrades, minimum, which generally means 18 – 20 trades. You will get injuries and you will need corrective trades (cough, splutter Hibberd anyone?). So, starting the right premos is essential. For me, that means Lloyd, Whitfield and Hurn (look also at their improvements over the last 3 years!) – but can I afford them? … Thoughts?

 

Next up, we will look at the Forwards – as they are also contentious.

 

FORWARDS

So, the same question – when selecting your starting premo forwards, are you better off going with total points, or highest averages?

If you aren’t starting Danger, then you aren’t serious … so we can exclude him. That said, I’m also aware of the argument to start him as a mid and move him forward when you upgrade rookies … so that is valid too.

HIGHEST TOTAL POINTS

Name

Club

Position

Start Price

2018 Total

2018 Games

2018 Avg.

2017 Avg.

2016 Avg.

Dangerfield, Patrick 

Cats

F M

$660,500

2,555

21

121.7

136

132

Westhoff, Justin 

Power

F M

$549,500

2,227

22

101.2

87

85

Menegola, Sam 

Cats

F M

$543,100

2,201

22

100

100

99

Smith, Devon 

Bombers

M F

$531,300

2,153

22

97.9

80

82

Mundy, David 

Dockers

F M

$520,900

2,111

22

96

89

93

Breust, Luke 

Hawks

F

$516,400

2,093

22

95.1

71

83

McLean, Toby 

Bulldogs

F M

$514,000

2,083

22

94.7

86

70

Kelly, Timothy 

Cats

M F

$505,800

2,050

22

93.2

 

 

Heeney, Isaac 

Swans

F M

$529,200

2,047

21

97.5

98

80

Riewoldt, Jack 

Tigers

F

$504,100

2,043

22

92.9

83

86

Hawkins, Tom

Cats

F

$552,900

2,037

20

101.8

86

85

Gray, Robbie 

Power

M F

$525,500

2,033

21

96.8

92

108

Gunston, Jack 

Hawks

F

$521,400

2,017

21

96

86

92

 

Speaks for itself really. Only 1 KPP in the top 9 – Breust. And he is worth considering. He also has the added advantage of his bye in round 12. Interestingly, Heeney is only ranked 9th here – but missed one game. The rest all played maximum games and Danger was robbed! I must admit, I’m not a fan of Westhoff (burned me at the end last year!!) but his numbers and increase in average speaks for itself – is he worth it or with Lycett there, will he lose the ruck numbers which bolstered his output last year?

So what else should we consider? Their roles? Will Dahlhaus impact Menegola and Kelly adversely? Will his moving clubs help further improve McLean’s output? Will Robbie Gray go back into the mids more and make him viable again? (look at Menegola’s consistency and McLean’s steady improvement)

HIGHEST AVERAGES

Name

Club

Position

Start Price

2018 Total

2018 Games

2018 Avg.

2017 Avg.

2016 Avg.

Dangerfield, Patrick 

Cats

F M

$660,500

2,555

21

121.7

136

132

Hawkins, Tom

Cats

F

$552,900

2,037

20

101.8

86

85

Westhoff, Justin 

Power

F M

$549,500

2,227

22

101.2

87

85

Franklin, Lance 

Swans

F

$543,500

1,802

18

100.1

98

95

Menegola, Sam 

Cats

F M

$543,100

2,201

22

100

100

99

Smith, Devon 

Bombers

M F

$531,300

2,153

22

97.9

80

82

McDonald, Tom 

Demons

F

$529,800

1,659

17

97.6

85

90

Heeney, Isaac 

Swans

F M

$529,200

2,047

21

97.5

98

80

Gray, Robbie 

Power

M F

$525,500

2,033

21

96.8

92

108

Gunston, Jack 

Hawks

F

$521,400

2,017

21

96

86

92

Mundy, David 

Dockers

F M

$520,900

2,111

22

96

89

93

Breust, Luke 

Hawks

F

$516,400

2,093

22

95.1

71

83

Dunkley, Josh

Bulldogs

F M

$516,300

1,807

19

95.1

60

70

McLean, Toby 

Bulldogs

F M

$514,000

2,083

22

94.7

86

70

 

If you rather look at the best averages for your decisions, the choice becomes a bit harder, with more KPP forwards coming into the mix – but at the cost of less games (and thus points). If Buddy can stay on the park – he’s a lock … but maybe a better upgrade target?

The same maybe applies to Hawkins – but he increased his average by 15 points in 2018, so can he repeat? For me, there is so much doubt around so many of the players (and nicely summarised by Freo in Schwarzies article on forwards back on 13 January!), that it is hard to go past Menegola for his consistency and maybe Heeney if he can step up again with more mid time. Doubts around Smith and the impact Shiel will have on him and also Robbie Gray’s role. Mundy offers consistency and points – but is his age a factor?

McLean is the guy who is standing out a little for me on both tables … look at his average increase over the last 3 years … is he worth the risk?

The other standout not on these tables and in a lot of people’s thinking is Wingard. 1861 points, over 21 games at an average of 88.6. Is he worth a risk? With Titch out, surely he picks up more in the midfield … but does he play with enough effort?

There is a strong argument to play Danger in the mids – and given byes, you would be looking at using Menegola to replace him and that means you probably wouldn’t move him to the forwards until your last upgrades from r14 onwards … anyone hate Round 13 bye as much as me??

That said, the argument is probably stronger to not play Danger in the mids because you would be looking at playing a forward struggling to average 100, at the expense of sacrificing a mid starting spot to someone like Merrett or higher scoring … think about this carefully folks! I know which way I’m leaning!

 

OK for me, again, when starting, I’m leaning towards total points and thus games played being the clincher. Outside of Danger, that means Menegola, Smith … and maybe McLean? Maybe Heeney. For some reason Mundy (even with Neale moving on) and Westhoff don’t appeal to me. Any thoughts on the above? Which way are you leaning? Next we’ll look at the MIDs…….

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20 thoughts on “Total Pts vs Average”

  1. It’s a mixture of average and total to be honest for me. Injury can hit any player of course, so in this respect, I look at what they can do when fully fit. However, a player that consistently plays nearly a full season over years has benefits too, like a Tuohy

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  2. Always, always average. Though obviously with good old fashioned common sense as well (I will not be picking Sam Reid with his 104 average even though he is severely underpriced based on that)

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  3. I’ve gone by averages in the past, and burnt so many trades on the likes of Ablett, Fyfe, Rockliff etc that I don’t want to think about it.
    This year, I’m prepared to sacrifice 3-5 points per game if it means picking guys who have a history of playing out the season, every year.

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    1. yeah mate – I hear ya … that’s where I am too!!

      Now Murphy’s law means that this will be the year that things change and all those ones (Sicily) with killer averages that we would normally take and then get burned by, will actually pay off!!! hahaha … God I hate (but also love!) this game … most of the time!!

      Good luck!

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  4. Great write. This is for me the most comprehensive write on cementing my premos spots alongside Allsaints Strategy. Somehow you have helped me decide on culling the conundrums that Sicily and Dunkley were posing me. Like Chillo, I was more focused on players ceiling and trying to sniff the break out year and imptroved potential.
    This year lets play SUPERCOACH and hope there are plenty of @SCT players at the top 500 comes years end. We definitely have the best community going around.

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  5. Great write. This is for me the most comprehensive write on cementing my premos spots alongside Allsaints Strategy. Somehow you have helped me decide on culling the conundrums that Sicily and Dunkley were posing me. Like Chillo, I was more focused on players ceiling and trying to sniff the break out year and improved Mid potential.
    This year lets play SUPERCOACH and hope there are plenty of @SCT players at the top 500 comes years end. We definitely have the best community going around.

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  6. Great stuff Macca. I’ve considered this a lot in the off-season. My take would be to START with players who offer both, but durability is key. After all, these are the players you don’t want to trade for the ENTIRE season. You know they will deliver on total points, but also give you peace of mind.
    On these two lines, we are probably going to pick three guns.
    I am therefore starting:
    Lloyd, Laird and Whitfield and
    Dangerfield, Heeney and Mundy
    Four of them are rock solid and I’m expecting improvement (however slight) from Whitfield (coming into his prime) and Heeney (first ever full pre-season).
    This gives me security and the time to identify any breakouts before making upgrade trades. For those last one or two pieces of the jigsaw and depending on how my trade volumes are looking, I might even consider a risky pick for the run home, eg a KP FWD who plays GCS and the like in the final stretch.

    Hope that makes sense. Thanks again Macca.

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    1. Yes mate, I follow … it then comes down to your available dollars and no doubt ruck strategy! (and rookies!) – with those choices!!

      Schwarzy was too quick for me … he posted these articles (my original attempts) and I sent him an update earlier tonight where I also included a few of the widely discussed possible breakout candidates on each line!

      The Mids and Rucks will follow I guess when space permits … no matter which way we all choose to go, they are neither right or wrong … and we can never take account of all the factors … with the biggest being plain old luck!!

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  7. As a top 1k player multiple times ive always gone for a mixture of both, you want the high averaging players but if you have a 110 average player missing 5 games out of 22 and getting 60 bench cover each time you’re losing 250 points and getting 2170 VS a 105 player not missing a game getting 2310 total whilst saving trades

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  8. It is too simplistic to look at season averages to imply a good starting pick.

    Menegola is anything but consistent on a weekly basis. As much of a yo-yo as the KPP’s!! I reckon there’s a fair chance you get him cheaper than he is now – and then back him in to run with that 100 average..

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  9. Sensational stuff Macca – really cut through the mist surrounding so many of these premiums. Security and total points really are the goal of opening selection – have to admit, Menegola surprised me – worth a look.

    Still, the defenders – they scare me. You have Mills coming for Lloyd, Smith coming for Laird, Williams coming for Whitfield, and Sicily coming for Sicily! Scary stuff – Simpson’s dependency seems far more prized under that lens.

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    1. Thanks Lear and good luck. Yep, defenders I am still not fully locked in … those 3 ‘set and forget’ are changing for me on a regular basis!!

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    2. Surley Simpson has to take a bit of back seat to Newman, Williason & their plethora of mid sized defenders at some point he can’t play on for ever.

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  10. if a player misses 1-2 matches but has a nicer average its usually a win. eg Sicily at 105pts to crisp95.
    You still get a 60 from a bench player. Id be taking a player like Sicily any days of the week thanks.
    Goodluck placing bets on a player getting injured

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    1. Yes DmK – that’s correct, and hence why Simpson and Laird are still in the top 4 point scorers last year and well ahead of the next best, despite missing 1 and 2 games … the problem was Sicily missed 8 … which definitely puts you behind … and he missed several of those games from stupidity!

      That’s the beauty of this game, so many factors and such a luck factor that none of us can predict everything … but we can minimise some. So, if you are a risk taker, then you back in Sicily to maintain last year’s efforts and also not miss games … if not, you take Hurn … or maybe old man Simpson … who I have every year … i keep waiting for that ‘old man’ calf injury to catch up with him though!! haha … good luck with your choices!!

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    1. Particularly for the best choice defenders (and for that matter most of the lines), the ‘better’ options either have the dreaded round 13 bye or round 14. You need to try and even out the numbers of your premos, across the lines, and across the bye weeks, to try and maximise your scoring.

      With the defenders outside of Sicily, your best options, including the breakout possibles (Witherden, Harris, Williams etc) are all playing in R 13 or R14 – so if you start 3 set and forgets and 1 possible, you will have 2 or 3 missing in R13 or R14 … couple that with missing your rucks and the best premo mids also across R13 or R14 and you start to miss a few. … There is thus a good argument to start Sicily … and if you go Sicily, Hurn, Whitfield for example, you have 1 each across each bye round … albeit with risk on Siciliy being dumb again and getting suspended …

      Of course, the aim will be to upgrade several before the byes … but you still need a balance and to try and get 18 playing each of the bye weeks … you will have rookies that are no good or too soon to trade them out and you will have players omitted / injured … even some of the guns get a rest the week before or after their bye …

      If you haven’t used the bye planner yet, do yourself a favour and grab it and plug your team is and see where it places you over the byes … save a few versions with your targeted players and then look again …

      Also, all these articles shouldn’t be read in stand alone … they work well with other articles on players, or teams, or Adam’s stats and so on …

      Hope that helps?

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