Trade Or Hold Rd10 #1

Written by Schwarzwalder on May 22 2018

Tim Kelly has been our best rookie so far in 2018.  Some Coaches had even floated the idea of holding Kelly as M8 for the season.  After a 48 on the weekend, Kelly has a BE of 120. Is it time to move him on?

 

What to do with Tim Kelly(GEE)?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...
2
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

32 thoughts on “Trade Or Hold Rd10 #1”

  1. Very tempting to bank around $300k after trading in Phillips though, providing he’s picked of course!

    On top of this if you have a healthy bank already, this will allow the desired double upgrade next week!

    3

    3
  2. Henry to Phillips and Kelly to Danger looks like a no brainer to me. Henry at his max price, Kelly probably at his max price. Zero impact to bye structure. Even if Kelly goes 90 ave from here it’s still approx 30 points/week improvement assuming danger picks it up just a little which I’m confident he will do. Yes Kelly has 2 easy games coming up but so does Danger. And if Kelly drops off just a little and Danger really gets going the points per week increase could easily be 40-50, and that’s without factoring in captains loophole. Rarely has a 1up 1down been more locked for me than this one.*
    * unless Phillips gets dropped this week then all bets are off!

    23

    0
    1. Yeah that is all well and good that Danger will out score Kelly.

      However , rather than having Kelly on the field as your rookie Coaches will have a lower averaging Rookie on field that you have not upgraded and thereby can counter against the points gained by Danger over Kelly. Worth Coaches taking into Account which rookie they will be fielding instead of Kelly before going gung ho Kelly to Danger.

      7

      3
      1. Only if other rookie has hit max price and has viable upgrade target. Otherwise Kelly to Dangerfield sounds pretty good to me.

        2

        0
      2. I’ll have Danger on field instead of Kelly on field. Phillips on bench instead of Henry on bench. What you’re saying is correct if you downgrade Kelly, which I wouldn’t recommend for the reasons you state.

        2

        1
        1. Yeah I am not saying it is a Bad Trade, but it might be for some Coaches who will be fielding a Rookie who is averaging in the 50s or low 60s as it might be better to downgrade and upgrade there.

          5

          0
        1. Wighty I am not necessarily talking about a Mid Rookie but another Rookie in defence or Forwards that will be on field. Or if you are full premium and have no rookies at all this week with your Kelly to Danger Trade you are a genius.

          3

          0
          1. Agree with DA on this one. Spending your energy on upgrading a different area of the field could be more beneficial. You might currently be fielding Murray at D6 and Kelly at M8 or something similar. Getting a premo down back to lift your D6 from 60s to 100s COULD be a better points gain than upgrading Kelly to Danger. Really depends on what you think they’ll all be averaging. For me I see Kelly as 90s or 100s and Danger as 110s. Means the D6 upgrade is more beneficial.

            7

            0
            1. I can see the logic of this but, if Kelly not in your final team, with his break even, nows the time to say thanks.

              And of course I have other cows to cull too.

              0

              1
  3. I’m going to stick with him until his round 14 bye. I think this poor game was a reflection of the entire geelong team this week. I’m sure he’ll bounce back. He might lose a bit of cash but a rookie averaging 95 will be pretty useful through the bye rounds! However if you felt there was somebody you needed to get this week it may be worth it.

    13

    0
  4. His 48 was bad timing but I only have 1 mid spot to upgrade and I am waiting/hoping for Macrae to have a bad day at the office. Kelly will stay until his bye for now.

    8

    0
  5. Three round average of 102 before a game where the whole team was awful. He could hit the rookie wall or he could get up to 470k, hover and be an easy trade for a fallen premium, right now I feel your wasting cash trading him, unless you really feel you need danger right now.

    6

    -1
      1. Why now? He’s not exactly shown he’s hit a rookie wall off one bad game and can be upgraded later, and based on his average will get to 470k. Yes he might hit a wall but I’m not convinced after the whole team were awful on Saturday. If you keep him , he averages 90 he goes to 450k, if you keep him and he averages 95 you go to 475k, if you keep him and he averages 100 he gets to 500k. I can turn Brayshaw into Dangerfield this week which leaves him at M8, and someone I hope I can trade to a fallen premium after a Jacobs tag or an injury. This could even be Pendles in two weeks if he starts to get worse.

        4

        0
  6. I would love to hold Kelly but I have one mid spot left and no Danger and the risk of him taking off is my worry.

    TU Danger will hover around current price
    TD Danger will go on a rampage

    2

    17
    1. I think there’s a decent chance he will. He was said to be carrying an injury and Scott hinted he’s basically over that now. More importantly the fact the cats are last in the AFL for clearance differential and 2nd last for centre clearance differential in the league might mean they start to play Dangerfield more through the midfield. They have been good this year because their defensive structures and not because of Danger playing massive patches of games in the forward line. He’s also only kicked 9 goals this year so I feel like a more permanent move to the mids is inevitable. He was ranked 2nd last year for clearances and he’s ranked 32nd this year, so I think a smart coach would start giving him a lot more mid time.

      2

      0
      1. Someone may be able to confirm this but I read something about Scott wanting Ablett to play more forward which, if true, would be good.

        0

        0
  7. It would have been a lot easier had Holman not scored a 122, ensuring his place in our teams for at least another few weeks. Otherwise, Holman would have definitely been up for trade consideration instead of Kelly in the MID line.

    The problem is that Phillips seems to be the only viable downgrade option this week (MID only), but downgrading Kelly to Phillips just feels wrong (ideally you’d want to UPGRADE a playing rookie like Kelly).

    The other point to consider is the rookie situation over the coming weeks. There are a number of rookies that will be on the bubble for next week, particularly Smith & Ridley, but also Rice. Unsure on the rookie debutants for this week, but it could end up being that next week becomes a double downgrade week, with the PTA / GCS players being needed more for R12 than R11.

    Still unsure what to do myself, but just some general musings for the SCT community.

    4

    0
    1. Think it depends on your position. I’m ranked 220 so trying to be aggressive. Traded Kelly last week to fund a double upgrade.

      3

      0
      1. Great stuff & keep up your fantastic ranking. With good trade & bye strategy hopefully you get up to top 20 after the byes.

        2

        0
  8. So, is it worthwhile also considering the option of trading out Coniglio here instead?
    Has a 3rd avg of 84 and 5rd of 92. Kelly has 3rd avg of 85 and 5rnd of 87 … which includes the awful 48 last week …

    Is it worth asking, Is Coniglio a fail? Or will he bounce back? Also, the GWS side have fallen off a cliff … something not right there … just some further musings …

    1

    1
    1. I’m thinking about it too but there’s a lot of other areas that I think will be a better investment to get points on the field. If I trade Coniglio, i’ll probably be able to get a +20 point bump, whereas if I upgrade a rookie defender, I should be able to get +30.

      3

      0
    2. I was thinking about this yesterday, and decided I would see how he is doing at R13 when he gets to his bye. He did much better with Greene and Kelly playing, and may do better when they get back. If I remember correctly, his DE dropped without them.

      2

      0
      1. Hmmm and what if Coniglio is the only way to get to Macrae- seems like he is a must have now and is getting CD favourable scoring as well … sooop many permutations!!

        Well done again FD on your ranking keep going strong mate!!

        0

        0
        1. Thank you, I will do my best!

          I would not feel okay talking anyone out of getting Macrae!

          Coniglio up to him is a valid option. The only reason I have not thought out a few hundred ways to get Macrae in is my already having him. (Thank you for the timely injury Mr. Josh Kelly)

          4

          0
  9. I can get bigger improvements elsewhere on the field, plus I’m planning to hold Kelly as a long-term M9. Both of these factors mean I’ll be holding.

    0

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *