Trade Or Hold – Rd5 #1

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 16 2018

This is the one that has been doing our heads in for the last 2-3 weeks……..Jack Billings.

After a big 133 against Brisbane in Rd1, Billings has produced 79, 54 &  65.  Given the form they are currently in, it’s hard to see the Saints winning many games before the bye round (seriously, look at their fixture till then).

Just to highlight Billings current form…….take a look at his form from 2017…….

Rd1-6: 73.3 avg

Rd 7-14: 109.7 avg

Rd15 -18: 71.5 avg

Rd19-23: 109 avg

Will he come good or is it time to cut your losses?

 

What to do with Jack Billings (STK)?

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30 thoughts on “Trade Or Hold – Rd5 #1”

  1. I’m usually one to hold my underperforming premiums till the bitter end (heater 2017 I’m looking at you).

    But enough is enough. Billings and hibberd are going this week!

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    1. Who you swapping out Hibberd for? Anyone in range is only averaging ~10 more.

      Billings on the other hand is a bit of a no-brainer.

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  2. I’ve just swung the axe on a spluttering Billings for a way underpriced Zerrett.

    Will confirm with teams being named, but this take me to 7 premos in the middle.

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    1. Holding Billings for now, Hibberd gone for Sicily and upgraded Brayshaw to Conigilio. Only one rookie on field for the mids.

      Was a coin toss between trading Hibberd or Billings.

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  3. J Billings:
    2017 Wins Avg: 100.36 from 11 (low of 53 and a high of 136, 6/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
    2017 Losses Avg: 85 from 11 (low of 55 and a high of 112, 6/11 below 100, 0/11 120+)
    2018 Wins Avg: 133 from 1
    2018 Losses Avg: 66 from 3 (low of 54 and a high of 79)

    2017 Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 110.3 from 10 (3/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
    2017 Avg when disposals below 24: 78 from 12 (9/12 below 100, 0/12 120+)

    2018 Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 133 from 1
    2018 Avg when disposals below 24: 66 from 3 (3/3 below 100)

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    1. Perfect Adam, thanks. Not sure the saints will get more then 6 wins, so it’ll be a much lower average. Trade!

      I watched them yesterday and the have no game plan other than bomb long to a forward. Geelong played a loose man back the whole day and they didn’t even try to change. Even the commentators were exasperated, especially NRoo.

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    2. Good research and its clear he’s impacted but I wouldn’t say it’s set in stone that he can’t score well in Saints losses. He still managed 5 tonnes out of 11 losses last year and 92.25 in the last 8 losses of last year. I still think he’s worth holding and that the upside is still there for Billings, both in terms of the form he has been able string together last year and his potential to kick more accurately if/when he starts to get more shots on goal.

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        1. Have to agree. Saints are over-structured and some thing(s) has(ve) to change to turn things around quick enough to keep their season alive.
          Will be keeps ng a close eye

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  4. Posted this in the trade talk and thought I would put this up here to highlight Billings inconsistency in 2017. He seems to have patches of brilliance and patches of mediocrity.

    Billings in 2017:

    Rounds 1-5: 69.4 avg
    Rounds 6-14: 107.6 avg
    Rounds 15-18: 71.5 avg
    Rounds 19-23: 109 avg

    Overall: 92.7 avg

    Also here’s a point mentioned in the latest phantom article:

    “And it’s on the back of time spent up forward. In a year when most of us thought Billings would transition into a full-time midfielder, he’s spent 94 per cent of game-time in the forward-half this year, up from 82 per cent last season.”

    So Billings is playing less midfield time and we want him to play there more often and move further up the ground, but he has shown he can score well playing as a forward. When he was at his best I saw Billings as a HFF comparable to Toby Greene, capable of scoring goals and setting others up.

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  5. If you look at his scores this year alongside the team against which he scored them, a noticeable pattern emerges.

    Now, the ladder is probably not yet an accurate reflection of the overall pecking order after 4 rounds, but as it is clear that some teams have gotten better or worse over the off-season, relying on last year’s ladder won’t do. So, I’m going to use the average of each team’s current ladder position, and their position on the home-and-away ladder at the end of last year.

    (Round: Opposition, 2017/18 average ladder position, Billings’ score)

    1: Brisbane, 17.5, 133
    2: North Melbourne, 11, 79
    3: Adelaide, 4.5, 54
    4: Geelong, 5, 65

    He scored well against a bottom-2 side, okay against a mid-table side, and poorly against two top-8 sides. If this trend continues, then, with St. Kilda’s less-than-friendly pre-bye draw will mean a lot of low scores to come.

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    1. The pattern should be pretty obvious to the naked eye, but if you want numerical confirmation, that’s a .97 correlation.

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  6. Voted “trade” so hoping I will follow through with that later in the week so he doesn’t become my “Heath Shaw” of last season – held Heater each week waiting for him to come good. I’m not going to be as patient this year. Plus I’ve got Hibberd doing my head in, but I figure there is more adequate replacements with higher averages in the forward line then in the backline. Plus the rookie defenders are holding their own at the moment.

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  7. I’m trading out:
    Z Fisher & Billings for Taranto & Mundy.
    Yay or Nay?
    Comments on better options i have $940k for 2 players.

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  8. This is the week that the decision to trade or hold Billings has to be finalised. He will probably lose another $20,000 – $30,ooo in price this round before levelling out in price in the following weeks.
    I have Billings, am holding and going to take the punt on him averaging 90 from here.
    Downloading to a rookie will cost you another trade to get back to a top 6 forward so trading to another premium looks like it will cost you $60,000- $90, 000. Of the forwards Menegola, Franklin, Heeney and Greene are the top 4 from last year and all are performing to that level.
    Billings is in 44,000 teams half will get it right and half will not.
    Save the Billings trade for the potential bargains to be had with the midfield premiums?

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  9. Hmmm as much as I wanna go Billings to McLean or Gray, my guts going HOLD! Hibberd I see no value in trading atm.

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  10. Can anyone tell me what the likely reason was that Billings started 2017 with a 77 avg from rounds 1 – 6 ? Was it just patchy play or a different role or perhaps a confidence things to due with team performance?

    Trying to decide if indeed it is a trend that he starts slow or there is a reason why he has in the last two years. If the data is comparable to last year then we should be able to make a semi informed decision as to what may happen next with him..

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