Trade Talk Rd7 – PART THREE

Written by Schwarzwalder on May 3 2018

Such is the volume of Coaches cnoming through the site to talk about trading…..we’re now having to open up a 3rd Trade Talk for the week. Who’s in? Who’s out?

 

 

 

 

 

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132 thoughts on “Trade Talk Rd7 – PART THREE”

  1. Walters to via DDP:

    TU: Merret + 90k bank
    TD: Macrae + No Bank ($800 only)

    Only have 2 open spots left (+1 spot saved for danger) in the mid so opportunity cost the big concern about merret.

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    1. Part 2:

      Is Macrae the real uberprem deal? Will he go 115+ (top 6) or just 105+ (top 15).

      Merret i see averaging 105-110ish from here out considering he will cop a tag here and there, or another big knock dropping him under his ‘fit’ 110 average.

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  2. Need to get rid of Greene and Bonner. Have got some DPP and 288k in the bank so one has to be a FWD and one can be a DEF or MID

    TU Yeo and Gray
    TD Macrae and FWD (521k to spend – miss Mundy by 1k)

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      1. Gray gives you the added worry of the round 10 bye and is perhaps slightly overpriced at the moment.

        If you can handle the bye then go for Yeo and Gray definitley.

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  3. TU Trade Walters
    TD Hold Walters

    Does anyone have any more information? Iโ€™ve heard it could be as little as two weeks which Iโ€™d happily hold.

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    1. i’ve heard 2/3 weeks.

      However with his history of injuries surely they take their time and not rush? so i’m leaning more to the 3/4 week angle

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  4. TU: McLean
    TD: Sicily or another forward that could average in the top 6 fwds below McLeanโ€™s price

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  5. TU – option 1
    Bonner-mirra
    Holman-merret
    35000 in the bank
    TD- option 2
    Bonner-duman
    Holman- Cripps
    6500 in the bank
    Pretty sure mirra has better JS and out put than taylin duman

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    1. There was a suggestion on the AFL site that Mirra could be the one to make way for Sicily. May not be anything in it but keep an eye on team announcements.
      Youโ€™ve also missed his first and likely biggest price rise. Think that horse may have already bolted.

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    1. You’ve missed Mirra’s price jump and his JS is still TBD with the hawks having a few guys to come back in. Seems like burning 2 trades to not generate many more points.

      Duman would be a better downgrade option as he’s on the bubble.

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  6. G’day guys,
    Got 300K in the bank to upgrade with 24 trades
    T/U: Christensen –> McLean
    T/D: Hold off

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  7. Got the thumbs up in Trade Talk #1 for Buddy to premo MID and after reading peoples thoughts in Trade or Hold my only trade this week will Buddy to MID moving Heeney back to FWD. Who comes in?
    TU: Cripps
    TD: Macrae
    Comment: Zerrett & $$$$

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  8. I have my eye on Macrae and Gray this week by upgrading Banfield and Brayshaw. Both rookies have a little more cash in them but I feel Macrae and Gray are in hot form and may increase more than the rookies over the next two weeks. Btw I am leaving space for a possible double downgrade next week.

    Trades: Macrae & Gray in Brayshaw & Banfield out

    Thoughts?

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    1. Can you afford to go 1up 1 down this week and hold off on Gray until after his Round 10 bye? Price will probably level out (projected BEs of 119 and 139 over the next 2 rounds).

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      1. I have cash to bring in two guns this week. I am unsure about js of bubble boys this week.

        I thought about holding off on Gray but he is in hot form and WCE have given up big scores to opposition mids such as Neale last week.

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  9. Need to bring in a rookie forward this week. None on the bubble

    Who do we think has the best job security of the first gamers?

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  10. Gidday legends,

    Fair few issues in my rabble of a squad, looking for some advice.

    Almost certainly bringing in Duman for Coffield.

    I have a couple of mid-pricers doing nothing in Aaron Young and Caleb Marchbank, have enough money to upgrade either.

    Options are Young- Lynch (crows) POD potenital, Smith or Mundy. (Current FWD Heeney, Gray, Walters, Petracca, Young, Ratugolea, Fritsch, Giles-Langdon)

    Marchbank-Seedsman or Jonas, again both PODS. (Current DEF Laird, Hurley, Marchbank, Finlayson, Doedee, Murray, Naughton, Stoddart)

    Or live with the mid-pricers.

    Any thoughts/suggestions appreciated.

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    1. Young is playing, scoring points and making money (albeit not much)! Why would you want to trade him out when you have Walters and Petracca who are not playing, with Walters potentially out for a while?
      Coffield, whilst having a poor game last week should just about make his BE of 54 if selected. If not, you can bench him for now with Naughton tracking well.
      Marchbank may lose $40k in value over the next couple of weeks, but was travelling very well before his injury (105, 81 and 40 in a qtr!). Personally I wouldn’t trade him if I had him as I’d back him to come good again.

      How much cash do you have? How many trades left?
      Depending on the answers to those, I’d probably consider Walters to Mundy.

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      1. hey allsaints, cheers for the feedback.

        I’m happy to hold Walters and Petracca as they won’t be missing for too long and are scoring reasonably well.

        You make a good point about Marchbank, he is capable of averaging quite well.

        Just not sure About Young he is ho hum, and if I have the cash I figure why not upgrade him.

        Coffield will give me cash for upgrades, he is probably the rookie who I can afford to drop, others are travelling quite well.

        I have $37k in the bank, potentially $155k if I move Coffield out for Duman.

        24 trades left.

        I think the mistake was picking Young to start with, might have to just ride the wave with him.

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        1. No worries. I do think Walters may be out longer than you think. They’d be mad to rush him back given the type of injury and playing at Optus every other week puts serious doubt in my head for his long-term fitness.

          If Langdon doesn’t make it this week (knee), you will cop a donut in your FWD line. Can’t sell Langdon as he has a LOT of cash still to make. Petracca will surely be back next week unless he’s soft which leaves … I traded Walters out this week.

          It’s your team, so you must do what you think’s right. Good luck with whatever you decide. Hopefully you might get a bit more feedback on here, or you could try a couple of TU/TDs and see what the majority think. A sample size of one is very dangerous! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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        2. on the Coffield point, he is still undervalued by $50k+. You won’t be maximising his trade value should you pull the trigger now. He isn’t listed above in your DEF so is he in your MID?! It might be worth waiting a week for Spargo if so. Likely better JS and scoring potential than Duman.

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          1. Fair point, yeah Coffield is in MID at this stage, it was either him, Holman or Dow, Holman has been struggling a bit lately, Dow is looking better.

            I guess it will be a wait and see if Langdon is named and go from there, not massively keen on copping a donut.

            Being a Freo supporter I may be being a bit optimistic about Walters and it may be clouding my judgement to part ways with him.

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    2. Young will be a handy player playing through all the main bye rounds. I’d re-evaluate after the bye rounds have completed whether to trade him then. As long as you can field a team in R10 when Port and Suns players are out.

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  11. Trading Greene out , can bring in Macrae to make it 7 mid premo’s or straight swap for a forward most likely Heeney to keep it at 4 Fwd premo’s.
    Currently have Greene, Gray,Mclean,Smith plus Roughy and Waterman/Higgins/Henry.
    T/U Macrae
    T/D Heeney

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    1. IF I was to trade in Macrae I would swing Crowden or Spargo forward(had Spargo all year as Dpp loophole option)

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      1. nice one on Spargo. For me, I’d get Macrae over Heeney as he averages 13pts more/week and swing Spargo fwd.

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  12. Looking to trade walters out – potentially pick him up later in the year after his bye and once fully recovered (and price has bottomed out). Would get Robbie Gray however will wait until after his bye

    T/U Dangerfied
    T/D Macrae

    Who will score higher? I will only have 1 midfield spot left (occupied by T Kelly) after this trade – would like to get Danger however given he is sore and G Ablett will be back in the midfield, thinking this will push him forward more and reduce his output

    Comment – Hold

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  13. Thoughts on banfield or fogarty to Josh Kennedy so not to field Holman. Still waiting to cull other rookies for a big upgrade.

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    1. if you consider JPK an M8 I’d do it, if not, it’d be a no from me. Do you have a loophole option for Holman this week? He might score well, or not, or get dropped!!!

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      1. No loophole. But I’m happy to have him at m9 and loophole him after byes. I usually get nine mids after side is finished. But that price combined with the players I want on field are to inflated to trade in now. Basically is he a good mid 9 for the run home?

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  14. Richards > duman? $120k? got $140k in bank

    or should i pull trigger on naughton as i make $160k?

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    1. I’d be holding Richards, he pumped out an 80 early on so he is capable of scoring well. He needs to go up more to be worth trading. JS seems ok for now.

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    2. If it were my team I wouldn’t do either; both are scoring ok, both are making money and both have comparatively better JS. Naughton in particular looks to be improving every game (his last three ave. is better than Duman’s).

      Yes, you might get a quick $50k price increase this week, but there are too many unknowns for me. If, as people say on SCT a trade is worth $80k, would you really be ‘making’ $160k?

      Can I suggest you read this week’s excellent Cow Talk piece from FD before pulling the trigger?

      If it’s part of a bigger plan/move, please ignore me and hit that ‘T’.

      Good luck with it whatever you decide.

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  15. Greene replacement:

    TU – Hurley via Sicily DPP
    TD – Mundy/McLean

    Hurley seems assured of a Top 6 DEF spot whereas there’s some question marks over Mundy/McLean being Top 6 FWDs in the end. Going Hurley also gives me the capacity to turn Murray/McNaughton into the likes of Spargo/Ronke next week.

    Then again, going for Hurley slightly weakens my FWD line and it makes some sense to go for a like for like replacement of Greene in Mundy/McLean.

    Thoughts via the thumbs would be appreciated.

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  16. Have 24 trades left. Depending on selection Barry or Holman out for Duman and swing Finlayson into mids.

    T/U- Trade away
    T/D- Hold off

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      1. I read somewhere that Ross Lyon confirmed he was playing this week but I do agree with you. Freo have a lot of Sunday games so could be my loophole as I don’t have one.

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  17. I only have 2 Def Premos but the Rookies are scoring so well, so should I upgrade elsewhere? Can upgrade say Murray to any DEF.
    T/U – HOLD and improve other lines
    T/D – Take a Top 6 DEF now.

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    1. Not enough info to be able to properly answer the question. Who are you aiming to bring in on other lines? Which rookies are you looking to upgrade/downgrade?

      Are the players you are targeting currently on the way up or down? Do you have guys on other lines not scoring that you need to move on eg. Billings?

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  18. 23 Trades $338.3K Bank
    Looking at 2 options Mid/Def and Fwd/Fwd strengthen
    #1
    OUT Banfield/Murray
    IN Merrett/Seedsman

    #2
    OUT Christensen/Petracca
    IN McLean/R Gray

    T/U: #1
    T/D: #2
    Any comments appreciated

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    1. Can you get in Sicily instead of Seedsman? More likely to be a lock as a top 6 defender than Seedsman.

      As for option 2, saving trades to upgrade/downgrade rookies will be gold in the next few weeks (and over the byes). And with Petracca not having a ling term injury, I wouldn’t be using trades on him and Christensen at this stage if you can handle Petracca missing another week (Sicily’s DPP could come in handy if you go him in).

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      1. about $20K short on the Sicily option (under Opt#1), however the below is possible also

        OUT Banfield/Christensen
        IN Merrett or Mclean (DPP) / Sicily

        the Mclean/Sicily option would then add in 2 DPP, and achieve the upgrade still looking for. Saves Petrecca and Murray for later trades as required.

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        1. Like this option a lot more. Upgrading Banfield and Christensen and not using a trade on Petracca who will be back probably next week. Can upgrade Murray in a week or so but is also scoring some consistent points so can also hold through the bye rounds if you get injuries

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    1. Tough one. I’m going Macrae by a whisker because I feel Cripps is going to eventually burn out doing it all. I have the same as you but Cripps instead of Macrae (had Cripps all season) FYI.

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      1. Cheers Dan. I agree too. Heโ€™s carrying the Blues like Judd did. Was leaning towards Macrae.

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  19. Can I ask why no one is talking about Shannon Hurn?

    Aside from a blip against Carlton his scores gave been excellent.

    I’m aware that he has averaged mid 80s in the last few years. Is it a role change this year that can be expected to continue or just a hot start to the year that will fade soon.

    TU: good POD that will continue to score well
    TD: scores won’t last. Look elsewhere

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    1. Interested to see the response on this. Personally I’ve no idea, but am watching him like an eagle!

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    2. Wouldn’t say it was just a blip against Carlton. After a great start he went 85, 91 and then 58 and only averaged 78 across that 3 week stretch. Bounced back well on the weekend with a top score but with a BE of 97 its worth another week of ‘watching him like an eagle’ and his price wont jump much with another good score.

      Would be traded in as someone who you’d want to be confident will be a top 6 defender so you’d want to be confident he wont go missing for 3 weeks before coming back.

      Projected to drop under $480k after this week so could be worth the punt and be a POD.

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      1. Thanks mozman. Might wait til after Rd12 for him or Yeo as already have 5 premiums for that bye, even though I have plenty of non-premium cover elsewhere. Focus for my upgrades needs to be premos with R13 bye right now.
        Would love to have got Zerret this week for that reason, but canโ€™t do it without taking a donut in my injury-plagued FWD line.

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  20. 24 trades left, $35k remaining.

    I have Walters, who’s now out for 3 weeks. So I need to get rid of him.

    TU: M. Walters -> R. Gray
    N. Holman -> C. Spargo

    TD: M. Walters -> J. Sicily
    Keep Holman for one more week, as his BE is 35.

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  21. 25 trades left, 15k in the bank

    TU: Naughton -> Duman
    Billings -> Mclean

    TD: Murray-> Duman
    Holman -> Spargo/Mutch

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  22. New plan after teams announced…

    Bonner for hurley/simpson/yeo
    Going early on spargo for ryan.
    Leaving 270k for a double upgrade next week

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    1. Had a better idea i think…

      Still bonner for simpson/hurley/yeo

      But now walters out for heeney. And go the spargo downgrade next week if he impresses. Leaves 100k in bank and means i can leave garlett on the bench to cover the forward carnage

      T/u. Better idea
      T/d. Go with the first plan

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  23. Looking like I will go

    Banfield –> Macrea
    Murray –> Duman

    Murray maybe a bit early but I should be able to manage in my backline

    If anyone has any other recommendations for the premium I bring can literally be any player from FWD/MID/DEF but I think Macrea is the right option.

    Thanks for any feedback

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  24. Iโ€™ve calmed down from earlier in the week & re-thought my trades.
    Hibberd & Billings live another week after I realized I had the funds to go Henry to Sicily & Banfield to Zerrett.
    Danger fund now non-existent but will be re-established next week.
    Hibbo, Billo…donโ€™t let me down fellas…..

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  25. In two minds what to do here, doesn’t make any difference to who i’ll field this week, but i’m wondering if i can save a trade long term by hiding Walters on my midfield bench.

    Option 1 is Walters to Sicily

    Option 2 is sell Holman or Coffield and hide Walters on the Midfield Bench, I think Holman can bounce back and make more cash so i’m prepared to keep him this week but what about Coffield?

    My initial thoughts for next week is 1 maybe 2 downgrades, for Spargo and/or Ronke.
    Obviously if i hold Holman and he does nothing this week then he would go for one of them, but does selling Coffield now limit my options next week, or should i just get rid of him with that 24 in his cycle?

    TU Walters to Sicily
    TD Coffield to Sicilly, and keep Walters

    Comment Holman to Sicilly, or any better ideas.

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  26. hey guys, should i trade Sam Sauce Jacobs? I can afford any ruck man. Im worried Grundy will play injured heard Bucks say he will be monitored during games. Jacobs apparently has a good record against Carlton. please help!
    Thumbs up Trade him
    or
    Thumbs down keep him
    Cheers

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  27. Who’s more important getting in this week for Walters.
    TU McLean
    TD Merrett

    Current mids Martin mitch fyfe conigs Cripps Kelly finlayson Stephenson (banfield Barry Holman)
    Next week will look at downgrading banfield to spargo/Ronke/worpel type then upgrading Holman to crouch/macrae/danger
    Fwds heeney Walters smith petrecca billingsfritch ( gueilfi Fogarty)

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  28. Trading out Murray but steering clear of Sicily purely because I hate him with a passion! Wanting to bring in a POD but who is more likely to finish a Top 6 DEF?
    T/U – Howe
    T/D – Hurn

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    1. If you’re thinking of going Hurn, can you afford to wait a week? Murray still projected to grow another $10k with a BE of ~50 and with Hurn’s BE of closer to 100 he’s not likely to change much in price at all.

      Gives you another week to look at Hurn and see if he’s the real deal and can continue to pump out 110+ scores or whether he’s likely to put up average scores (1 stinker) like he did for 3 out of the last 4 games.

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  29. Billings to Mundy
    T/U – Yes do it
    T/D – No, Hold Billings he will get better.
    Comment – Different option than Mundy.

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  30. TU: Bonner to Cole
    TD: save the trade(have 22 left)
    I donโ€™t rate Dumans job security or potential for points

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  31. Got Greene and Walters, probably can’t keep them both, and a probable trade to McLean for one of them. Thoughts on who to get rid of, or comment to trade both. Got 124,100k in bank.

    TU – Trade Greene
    TD – Trade Walters

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  32. Looking at either of these two

    Bonner => Cole
    Gives me 300k for next week and 22 trades.
    T/U
    Or
    T/D
    Bonner => Duman
    Coffield (the spud) => Sicily

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  33. Who to play on field through dpp

    TU- naughton
    TD- one of Higgins, fritsch or Langdon

    If TD please comment which one , need some help !

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  34. Apologies as this is not a trade question but could someone give me some clarity on the number of players that count for the bye rounds and if there are any specific restrictions? For example, I have Gawn and Martin both missing from rd 13 and no back up (olango). Do I need to field a ruck to avoid the dreaded donut? Iโ€™m just outside the top 100 and feel like a bye โ€˜planโ€™ is fairly critical!!!
    Thanks always to all the mountainous work put in by the SCT community, terrific reading and the only reason Iโ€™m having my best start in the 3-4 years of playing!!

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    1. Yep, for Rd12-14 it is the best 18 scores from any position, including emergencies.

      So if you donโ€™t field a ruckman but have 18 scoring players elsewhere then you are ok.

      If you have more than 18 scoring players then the best 18 count.

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  35. Sicily in but for which of these two?

    T/U โ€ฆ. Murray ( def ) having Doedee & Finlayson as D5 & 6
    T/D โ€ฆ. Billings ( fwd ) having ZGL & Fritsch as F5 & 6, but will move Sicily back to defence when upgrading in a few rounds!

    Cheers Catta

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    1. Sicily for Murray looks like the best option. Murray only has approximately another 10,000 to 50,000 to make and I don’t think Billings warrants a trade as he isn’t injured and his scoring over the remainder of the year should compensate for his early poor performances.

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      1. Murray getting close to his ceiling. Billings has shown that he can score big consistently when he gets hot. Had a similar slow start last season and went on to score 100+ in 6 out of the 7 games from rounds 7 – 14 (then repeated the cycle by having 4 stinkers in a row). Seems to go in streaks so hopefully for you he can bust out of it this week.

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  36. Current Team

    DEF/Laird, Yeo, Lloyd
    DEF/Doedee, Murray, Naughton
    DEF Bench/Coffield l.Murphy

    MID/ Fyfe, Cripps, Martin, Ross
    MID/ Kelly, Finlayson, Holman, Dow
    MID Bench / J.kelly, Walters Fogarty

    Ruck/ Grundy, Gawn
    Ruck Bench/ Darcy Cameron
    FWD/Heeney, Smith, Wingard
    FWD/Rayner, Waterman, J.Higgins
    FWD Bench/ Guelfi L.Keefe

    TU trade Wingard + Walters To Sicily+ Merret
    TD Trade Wingard for Merret via dpp and downgrade a rookie

    124k in bank
    Comment other advice

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  37. I wasn’t going to do this but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. It’s also almost 1 in the morning, so maybe that’s factoring into it here…

    Matt Crouch – will be my M8 (leaving only Dusty or Macrae for M9), the only question is when do I bring him in. Conventional wisdom would say wait until next week, he should drop further in price. I foresee a few issues with this:

    1) He won’t drop that much (a 120 would see him drop 15k to around $545k).
    2) I’ll miss out on his points (~40-50 / week difference between him and Holman, who would then be on the bench). He plays Carlton this week, so that could even be greater than 40-50.
    3) I will likely miss out on the rookies available next week and those will be crucial, especially approaching the byes.

    Seeing as how it will be easier to find 20k than it will be to find a playing downgrade option, I think it makes sense to make the trade now.

    T/U – Sounds like a sound plan with consideration of all the variables that could make this an excellent option.
    T/D – Go to bed and come up with a better plan tomorrow ya muppet!

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    1. Crouch’s B/E is 188.
      Holman’s is 35.

      If your forecast is somewhat accurate:
      – Crouch reaches 120 approx
      – Holman reaches 80 approx
      Then Crouch will only drop around $20k whilst Holman increases $20k approx.

      It could ultimately depend on how much you have in the bank with the differential being +/- $40k (approx.) which may also determine if you can pick up Dusty or Macrae at the right time.

      Do you prioritise scoring or cash?

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      1. Thanks for the reply. B/Es that I have are:
        167 – Crouch (if he scores his average of 85, he’ll drop 27k – I doubt he scores under 100, more likely 105-120)
        13 – Brayshaw (will go up about $15k if he scores his 53 average)
        28 – Holman – (doesn’t matter as he’s going to the bench – I think I mentioned that but may be why I’m getting the thumbs down?)

        Just to clarify, trade would be Brayshaw -> Crouch. If it were Holman, I’d probably wait a week but I see better options next week for d/g targets. I could go Spargo this week but Crouch puts more points on the board and is less risky.

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    1. Gulefi not playing this week. Named as emergency.

      He is being rested after only a four day break last week.

      Should be back next week.

      I’m interested in the result of this one. I too have the same decision to make.

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  38. Just out or curiosity, if you have 23 trades remaining and avg 2200, would you this round:
    TU Trade
    TD Not trade

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    1. Not quite as simple as that. Depends on whether the trade is getting in a premo who helps you with the bye rounds and will stay in your team. Or are the trades downgrading a cow that can hold off to next week etc

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  39. Trying to pocket some cash for a Dangerfield upgrade next week, unsure on how rash my decisions should be:

    TU: Holman for Spargo , Banfield for Higgins (provides mid/fwd flexibility for byes)

    TD: Holman for either Spargo/Higgins, hold Banfield, delay Dangerfield trade for two weeks time.

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  40. 25 Trades: 261K – Looking for your best trade advice, thanks
    DEF: Laird, Simpson, Shaw, Doedee, Murray, Bonner (Naughton, L Murphy)
    MID: Danger, Fyfe, Titch, Dusty, Cogs, Kelly, Finalyson, Holman (Banfield, Brayshaw, Barry)
    RUC: Gawn NicNat (Olango)
    FWD: Heeney, Petracca, D Smith, Billings, Christensen, Henry (Fritsch, Guelfi)

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  41. Hello All.. need help!

    TU: Franklin >Spargo.. Banfield > Merret

    TD: Stephenson >Spargo.. Murray > Sicily

    Leaning TD..Means holding Buddy & be able to bring in MCrouch next week

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  42. TU- Murray and Richards to Seedsman and Webster
    TD- Richards and Banfield to Simpson/Hurley and Spargo

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