Underpricer – MID #1 – Tom Mitchell

Tom MITCHELL (HAW) MID, $630,900, BE: 116.18

Age: 26yrs 9mths

Games: 111

2020 Season: 7th

Draft Pick: Rd1 Pick 21

SC history (2018-13): 129.1, 118.9, 104, 104.5, 83.8, 86.2

SC % ownership: 17% and rising

The 2018 Brownlow Medallist had the SC world at his feet going into the pre-season last year when fate struck a cruel blow. While suffering the inevitable hangover from a hefty dose of leather-poisoning, the ball magnet suffered a broken tibia and fibula in training. It sounded much like Nathan Brown’s all those years ago for Richmond; and it took Brown a full two years to get back to where he was (if he ever did, in fact). Mitch Wallis you could argue, hasn’t quite got back to his ‘pre-double-break’ best, that he endured in 2016. The news from both, is don’t rush it.

To be honest Titch hasn’t; he’s already had a longer period away than either of the other two did. He’s incredibly professional and appears to be managing his way back to stardom just as he’s been advised and should.

He played a half in HAW’s intraclub 8 days ago and 61% game time against the Saints on Friday night, scoring at 1.82 ppm, with 21 disposals, 13 CPs and six tackles. He moved well in managed time.

SuperCoach has actually been very clever in pricing him with only a 10% discount. Any greater than that, he’d likely be in ALL starting teams, but it’s a small enough discount to have us all questioning whether we should start him or not. Genius!

Starters for ten??

What do we need?

You’ll want him to be an excellent keeper to start him. You can argue that whether you’re going five or six deep in the guts, he will have to average 115 minimum for him to be a good pick; given that there are likely six others who will do that or better in 2020.

Positives

He’s averaged more than that (and by some margin) the last two years he has played. While his TOG% may be ‘managed’ early, he is more than capable of producing these numbers even if he’s down 10% on 2018. There is nothing like game-time to ‘get your legs back’ and if he gets through the crash and bumps of the first few rounds, he should be right.

Negatives

Serious injuries take time and those that have had similar injuries have taken a couple of years or longer to get back to their pre-injury output, though Titch is clearly best in class. A slight drop-off may see him incapable of getting from contest to contest which he relies on so much for his uber-elite scoring. Even a slight decrease may see a damaging drop in his SC average.

VERDICT:

I think I would rather watch and act. The safer option. Even if he averages 125 (yes you’ll miss all those points) he won’t be any more expensive come his bye. He also has the Rd14 bye and I really want to start three already with the same … and I think I trust them all a little more at this juncture. Just.

Either way, I think we’re all going to want him at some point so whether you’re starting him or not will likely be a good decision.

Titch is the only MID who warrants his own personal piece. The final piece in this series will include Hannebery, Walsh, Cutler and Patrick Naish