What The Ruck 2019 – PART ONE

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 30 2019

(Written & Created By Hot Sauce)

Coaches, please give a hearty welcome to our new Contributor, Hot Sauce.  He’s got some very insightful articles coming your way over the pre-season.  All going well, you’ll see him on a weekly basis during the season.  Take it away, Hot Sauce…………

 

Every year, the biggest dilemma coaches face is the three spots for the Rucks. Just three players out of 30 – such little room for error. Coaches who get this right have a strong advantage over the rest of the field by either picking the top 2 Rucks for the year and maximising their points scored for the full season while saving trades; or picking the right mid-price/cash-cow Rucks as ‘stepping-stones’ to upgrade to the best performed Rucks while securing big scores with safer bets in other areas of the ground.

 

This year is a bit different to years past in that we have two outstanding candidates in Grundy and Gawn who were head and shoulders above the rest of the pack last season. So, is it a foregone conclusion to pick them both in 2019? Or do we pick one and try find a bargain or ‘diamond in the rough’ with the other? Perhaps we skip them both focussing our cash on other areas and upgrade later in the year?

 

I will deep dive below to try and find an answer to this puzzle, whether we should pull the trigger and go with Grundy & Gawn (G&G); or Grundy/Gawn & Other (G&O); or Other & Other (O&O). So, what the Ruck should we do?

 

Here is why we should go with G&G:

 

1. The Massive Scoring Boost

 

In 2018 both Grundy and Gawn played all 22 games and amassed an enormous 5,675 points combined (an average of 258 points per week) for the lucky few coaches who backed them in from the start of the season. That is a huge advantage of 480 points (22 per week) over the next best combo without both G&G (which was Grundy & Martin) and 1,123 points (51 per week) of the best combo that had neither of G&G (Martin & Westhoff).

 

That point generation is hard to pass up on given both G&G’s dominance last season compared to their Ruck counterparts while the evenness across premium players in other positions allows for some unique picks as their scoring base won’t change as much in comparison. So, for what used to be an area for unique picks, the Rucks now seem to be offering up two uber-elite and very safe options that you can rely on week in and week out while ticking off 2 potential VC/C options every week.

 Grundy amazingly had only 3 games below 100 (with a low of 95) and 13 games over 120+ including a whopping 8 games over 140+. On top of that Grundy has increased his average score every season since 2015. If that sounds too good to be true, then let’s add Gawn’s amazing season which consisted of only 4 games below 100, 14 games over 120+, and like Grundy, a season that included 8 games over 140+. You should be drooling right now!

 

2. Saving Trades

 

Every coach must delicately balance points accumulation and cash generation all while trying to reserve as many trades as possible for the dreaded injuries/rest games/form slumps that could come at any point. So why not lock in two players who are as close to sure things for their position at the start of the season and focus that energy elsewhere on the field.

 

Although this means more trades elsewhere so “what’s the difference” I hear you screaming at me – well my ‘in-need of anger management’ friend, the difference is with G&G in the Ruck you are as close as conceivably possible to securing the top ranked players for that position where elsewhere is considerably more difficult. You would be lucky to secure 2 or 3 of the top ranked players (6 for DEF/FWD and 8 for MID) before Round 1 so why not take advantage?

 

3. Weak Premium Alternatives In the Ruck

 

OK so let’s say you won’t go with the G&G set & forget set-up but instead go with either a G&O or O&O selection, it raises a difficult question – who else do you choose?  You have two options; either an alternative premium to either Grundy or Gawn, or a potential ‘stepping stone’ Ruck that will allow you to get to G&G quicker with minimal trades. I’ll address the latter later in this article, but for now let’s look at alternative premium options.

 

Of all the best possible options, there isn’t a single player screaming out to be considered as a Top 2 Ruck. Stef Martin, ‘Big Boy’ McEvoy, The Hoff and Goldy were the only players to crack the ton last year. Paddy Ryder, Nic Nat and Matty Kruezer are the only other two Rucks to crack the ton in the last three years with Sandi and Sauce seemingly well past their prime. Of these potential premium selections, it would be only Goldy and possibly Martin, that you could think could compile a good enough season to justify skipping G&G. The rest are either past their prime; long in the tooth; carrying injury concerns; or all of the above. None of these players can be selected with the same level of confidence as G&G.

** Solid debut effort from Hot Sauce!  Look out for PART TWO tomorrow morning……… – Schwarzwalder **

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24 thoughts on “What The Ruck 2019 – PART ONE”

  1. Compelling argument Sauce, my current team would need a major rehaul to fit Gawny in. The difference between Grundy and Gawn is Gawn’s score is mainly provided in the ruck. Enter Pruess and think how that affected Goldy’s score. Many think that Gawn will come back to the pack while Reg is the new generation ruck prototype. Your write up makes it a costly decision if they’re wrong.Great read and more than food for thought.

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    1. Pruess didn’t ruck with Goldy last year, Goldy’s scores weren’t that good but i do agree if Pruess does ruck Gawns average will drop 20 points or so. If he plays the Mason cox role up fwd than shouldn’t be problem.

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      1. That’s true but with Hogan being traded to Fremantle, it leaves a spot open in the forward. It’s unknown if Preuss will take over that spot. Gawn and Preuss could play together like Nic Nat & Lycett did last year. If that happens Preuss could be a good option as a stepping stone but it’s highly unlikely he’ll avg over 90.

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    2. Thanks Joestar!

      I’m in the same predicament as yourself. Trying to fit them both is proving very difficult!

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  2. You’re a star joe.. can’t wait for part 2… Bringing some clarity to the angst … I’d have thought with Mitchell going down that the extra $ would see the GG choice rise.. but apparently Grundy is not even in half the teams so far at 44% selection and Gawn is sitting at 35%.. which means at least 21% of punters have neither.. given that not all those with Gawn will have Grundy suggests having GG is a massive pod.
    Can’t wait for the logic behind the non GG options..

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    1. My logic: Gawn and Grundy share the same bye that means you’ll be down 2 ruckman in (what I believe) is the hardest bye round to work around with premium players. I’ve got with my rucks set-up (for the moment) working around the bye rds; so I have Grundy (13), Goldy (14) and Clarke (12). Maximising points (for the bye rds) vs going all out from the start is always a good conversation to have.

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  3. Meant to start with .. fantastic write up , you’re a star Sauce and agree with joe .. lost it in editing on ruddy iPhone.. can’t wait for Part 2…

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    1. Haha not a problem Lazza. Cheers for the encouragement!

      If G&G turns out to be a POD that will be the tipping point for me to lock it in. Let’s see how it plays out.

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  4. Brilliant write up and has me considering a change to my lineup. Starting to wonder if it’s worth just out laying the cash for GG from the start. Possibly save 2 trades trying to upgrade a stepping stone (and what is the value of two trades? FD would say they are like oxygen if I recall correctly)
    Otherwise you start with maybe Grundy & Goldy and stick with that for the year….

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  5. Great write-up Sauce and look forward to part II. I think I’ll wait til I’ve read that piece too before making a decision.

    There is a mathematical argument for starting Goldy over Gawn though, just cos of their byes. I’ll try to explain it.

    First Goldy wasn’t right (mentally or physically) at the start of last year. He got himself right tho’ and came home with an average of 111 in his last 13-14 games. He is, like Gawn, a traditional ruck so the new rules should have minimal/nil effect on their comparative scoring ability in 2019. Goldy has shed a few kilos but looks stronger and leaner.

    Now it’s a big assumption but I’m going to presume that Gawn will average 127 up to the Rd14 bye and Goldy will average 111.
    Gawn will then score 127 x 12 games (R13bye) = 1524pts
    Goldy will score 111 x 13 games (R14bye) = 1443pts
    That’s a total pts diff. of 81pts.
    Now the starting price diff. is 692 100 – 548 000 = 144 100.
    All things being equal, that cash spent wisely onfield (eg turning a pot’l breakout into another premo) should make your team a further 27.8 pts/wk.
    That is a net total 280+pts for your team (upto and including Rd13), slightly lessens your headaches through the byes and should allow you to start with one extra genuine premium from the start.

    Now, I’m not saying this is the right thing to do. Just assuming averages is a big enough risk, but there is an argument. Indeed you can create an argument for GG, GO and/or OO. And they are all as compelling as each other. I wrote an argument for Longer a few weeks back, but now I’m not gonna go near him. Further analysis showed he has too many stinkers and stinkers mean VERY slow cash growth. Opinions, like the winds, change.

    Thanks again Sauce. Looking forward to part II.

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    1. 81 points difference upto Goldy’s bye, not much at all. I guess we also need to factor in the 19th player that would cover Grundy for his bye week, but if last year is anything to go by he was either injured (0 points) or Heron (25 points)

      Another factor that needs to be added is Gawn can be a captain option. Very hard to measure this one, you would have someone else instead of Gawn (if you have Goldy). Does that make sense?

      There is also a good chance the gap is less than 16 points, especially since we don’t know what effect Preuss will have.

      Another good thing for a Goldy owner is he has his bye after Gawn. While we all hate sideways trading at least in a situation where you realise Gawn is clearly top2 ruck, you could trade into him after his bye. Sideways yes, but at least you get some points back from not missing a bye round with that combo.

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    2. interesting points you make but i feel it is better and fairer (for the sake of analysis) to take the full season average for both Gawn and Goldy…some 26 points difference per game

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      1. Absolutely. That was kinda what I mean about constructing an argument. You just have to find the data to support it!

        To be honest if the # of decent starting rookies allow it, I’m 99% certain I’ll be going the G&G route. For the strong reasons Ben gives below, and unbelievably it sounds like it may even provide a decent POD. Happy days!

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    3. Excellent points All Saints – your analysis provides plenty of additional food for thought! Thanks for sharing!

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  6. Wonderfully written Hot Sauce, an awesome debut!

    As for my two cents, I think if you can afford it, starting Gawn is actually LESS risky than trying to pick another premo (Goldy, Stef etc.) or starting a mid-pricer like Longer or Sinclair.

    If your other premo doesn’t fire and averages less than you’d hope, and either Gawn or a premo you didn’t pick starts pumping out the big scores, it makes it very hard to make a corrective trade without waiting for a cow to get fat, which could take until the byes, and even then the difference in price could be too great. This risk if amplified even greater if you start Longer or Sinclair, if they don’t average enough to be a stepping stone, or get injured/dropped you’re screwed.

    On the other hand, if Gawn starts off the year averaging not what you want because Preuss is stuffing up his scores, he is so pricey that you can easily make a corrective trade to whichever premo appears to be gunning for the number 2 ruck spot, and pocket the extra 100k to use on another upgrade down the road.

    I understand why you might be tempted to start another premo or a mid-pricer in order to free up cash to strengthen the other lines, but I do not get when people say they’re not starting Gawn because he’s too risky and they’re uncertain of how he’ll score this year.

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    1. Cheers Ben – appreciate the positive feedback!

      I’m definately leaning towards your train of thoughts of either G&G or G&O but strictly a mid-pricer and not another premo.

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  7. Some insight on Billy Longer in 2017 (where he was the first choice ruck for majority of the year). In 2017 longer started at 260k (exact same as this year) played 17/22 games and averaged 78 finishing on a price of 468k.

    To break down his average in this year he averaged 54 in rounds 4-8. In rounds 9-16 he averaged 76 and in rounds 18-23 (missed round 17) he averaged 95. (Not sure why on the supercoach website it includes the games he didn’t play into the average meaning there were 0’s in the average).

    In all games Longer played in 2017 he was the solo ruck as you imagine he will be this year. Through this we can already see how up and down longer can be going from a 4 game average of 54 to finishing on a 6 game average of 95. I would expect much of the same this year as the the saints will more than likely be an up and down team themselves.

    In his average Longer scored 10 scores above 75 including 5 above 100. However the issue came when he scored 3 games below 40 (including a 21 and 25).

    In terms of price rises Longers up and down scoring prevented him from becoming 500k even losing money when he averaged 56 early. It wasn’t until he turned is average into 76 that he made 89k and then an extra 108k in the final 6 rounds (However by starting Longer you need him to make this money before the bye and start strong rather than finishing strong)

    So basically will longer average that 80+ range and find consistency to be a successful stepping stone to Grundy or Gawn? Its certainly a risk whilst potentially missing out on upwards of 40 points a game (although as allsaints said it is difficult to estimate a players average which makes the decision harder.)

    I personally agree with Ben that even with Preuss, Gawn (or Goldy if you don’t want both Gawn and Grundy) seems like a much safer option and will save the stress of finding a way to upgrade Longer if he can only average 60-70.

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  8. I feel like Preuss has been recruited for the sole purpose of an emergency in case Gawn breaks down. Wiedeman will fill the ff void if he can step up if not they will probably be happy to fill the forward line with small players around McDonald.

    I also view Roughead as much more likely of getting a game and taking ruck minutes off Grundy than Preuss off Gawn.

    With no other ruckman threatening of being top 2 besides G/G again and no stepping stone that instills me with any confidence. It is a lot of coin to spend on the rucks but you have to lock them.

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    1. I tend to agree Dukes!

      That very well could be true regarding Roughead impacting Grundy. One of the G’s could come down to whether Preuss, Roughead or both are selected round 1!

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  9. I have had g & g from day one, in relation to byes i have 5 of my 13 keepers not playing rd 13,wouldn’t want anymore , but i dont want to miss 12 rounds of maxys scoring either!

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  10. Gawn and grundy haven’t left my pre season side since SC gold picker opened. Having Preuss for a chopout will give gawn a bit of a rest, as if melbourne would want preuss taking too much time out of the ruck compared to gawn anyway. If gawn can rest down back or up forward he will just attract the footy and potentially take contested marks- he is the best big man in the game.

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