Trade Cases – Round 6

Matt Roberts

What’s the problem?

Yeah, so we don’t love this. After an easy start at 430k and opening scores of 124, 95 and 115, Roberts returned from the Swans’ Round 3 bye started dropping 70s in a disappointing split role. It’s been split in two senses. First, he is splitting the HB economy itself; so that’s kick ins, distribution and uncontested build up ball. Secondly, his role has been split in that he’s now out and out not  always lining up at HB – instead being stationed on a wing, where he accrued most of his touches over the weekend.

An impetus for, or at least symptom of, this split role is Riley Bice, who found his way into the starting 22 in Round 2. The long and the short of it is Bice and Roberts are chopping it up at HB. Roberts has lost his previous plurality on HB economy and discretion for effective and aggressive ball movement; now seeing stints in the wing.

The ascent of Bice is doing two things: i) fundamentally altering his role and positioning, and ii) undercutting his floor by eating some of the distribution economy.

It’s all been quite subtle and, of course, match conditions have been a factor, but let’s take a look at the numbers.

Pre bye numbers:

• Round 0 [124]: 26 touches, 20 kicks, 9 marks, 447 MG, 76% DE, 2 clangers, 1/12 KIs
• Round 1 [95]: 19 touches, 14 kicks, 3 marks, 379 MG, 78% DE, 3 clangers, 3/14 KIs
• Round 2 [115]: 25 touches, 19 kicks, 5 marks, 524 MG, 76% DE, 2 clangers, 5/11 KIs

Post bye numbers:

• Round 4 [77]: 20 touches, 13 kicks, 6 marks, 372 MG, 90% DE, 2 clangers, 3/4 KIs
• Round 5 [79]: 24 touches, 17 kicks, 5 marks, 433 MG, 70% DE, 5 clangers, 3/12 KIs

Not that stark a drop off right? Touches still in the 20s, some KIs and trademark efficiency. The problem, fundamentally, is how and where he’s getting the ball. The ‘how’ is in tandem with Bice and the ‘where’ is up on the ground on the wing. That, the how and where Roberts is obtaining the ball, is inhibiting his ability to dispose of it in a high SC yielding manner. Re-read that if you must, as I really couldn’t find a better way to express it, but essentially a shift in the Swans on field 22 and rotations are confounding Roberts at the moment.

What’s the go?

Everything outlined above will conspire to cap Roberts’ ceiling. There’s no debating that. Even with 20-24 well used touches, as he’s had over the last fortnight, it’s tough to ton – far less go 120+. In this current state of affairs, he’s just got to get everything right to keep his head (aka scoring) above water. For as long he’s directed to chop it up with Bice, his narrowed scoring stream will persist. Roberts will need a change in the Swans’ marching orders to lift his floor and re-open his ceiling – and does that really happen? There issues are ahead of the ball, Bice certainly isn’t going anyway and Lloyd rotates.

The problem with trading him is it’ll take 80-130k to trade him to someone guaranteed to be Top 6 and it really is the time to be banging out those first upgrades. Pausing and burning trades and cash to get Roberts [85] up to DEF premo [110] gets blown away by an on field rookie [60] to a MID premo [115]. It just seems an awkward time to pivot from a player who everyone wears the ups and downs of. For me, I’d just bank on his strong core attributes of efficiency and K:HB ratio, let him get to D6 and work on the rest of your team. Sinclair (BE 158), Zorko (BE 177) and Whitfield (BE 124) are all also due a haircut – wouldn’t be paying top dollar for any of them.

Clayton Oliver

What’s the problem?

Satan, Satan, Satan. What circle of hell are we in now? You’re back, you’re on ball, but it’s all still…bleh. A 97.4 average and just 1/5 scores over the ton. What has made him a frustrating pick is his core midfield numbers have actually been decent! 30~ touches, a solid CP ratio and the bulk of the Dees’ clearance work. His issue is a total lack of polish and two way work, limiting him to a CB/stoppage scoring stream only, and the fact he’s playing in a abysmal low use, low scoring side. The total absence of two way work, efficiency and score involvement (which is what elevates MIDs to 120 and Top 8) isn’t surprising given he missed a fair bit of football but the expectation was he’d develop that in a stable engine room and system – that hasn’t been the case. No granular analysis required: he is, for now, a coal face only MID with no attributes outside stoppage and inhibited by a bottom four system.

Few other tangibles that have dragged him down include: tags from Bedford and Setterfield, Petracca being shafted up forward and glaring absence of a capable defensive midfield to help him.

What’s the go?

I expected things to click back into gear against the Bombers, I’ll admit, but you still can’t trade him heading into Richmond and West Coast back to back. I think that fortnight of football gives him the chance to fix up his average and reward us with some 130s. Even the Day-less Hawks the week after I don’t mind. Given that fixture, it’s a hold. If he does nothing across those matches, then by all means divest but it’s a big no trading a MID with the Tiges and Eagles coming up – no matter how inhibited they’ve been.

Finn Callaghan

What’s the problem?

Despite playing a full time MID role, Callaghan’s playing pure cart before the horse football: winning the ball without numbers, bursting through with no one on the defensive side, failing to position as the outlet recipient and kicking to dead space. Additionally, his contested profile is heavily underdeveloped and he struggles to lower his eyes. None of this is in an indictment on the young fella but the hope was, I think, that he’d have enough positive scoring streams, particularly SIs, to paper over the deficiencies that emerging MIDs tend to have.

A UK cultural commentator once said of a politician and then party leader “He is a man of high ambition and low talent – the worst possible combination”. Now Finn is certainly not low talent but he is the ‘worst possible combination’ of uncontested accumulation and ineffective use. You can’t be doing both. Your classic coal face MIDs, think Rowell and Libba, win so much quality contested ball that it doesn’t need to always be disposed of efficiently – the contested extraction and clearance win itself is worth plenty, to both the team and CD. Then your Brayshaw or Sheezel types, who are notionally more ground covering uncontested types, dispose of it so well, so consistently that their shallower contested profile is all but forgotten.

So that’s Finn: not finding it enough and not using it well. The 55 against the Hawks you give him a pass – he was tagged – and the Saints are really dense, so I’m inclined to give him a pass there too. It’s just really unsettling that he only went 72 against West Coast. It was just bulwark through, get the ball, flick on the jets and dispose of it closer to a fan in the stands than a team mate. True cart before the horses stuff.

What’s the go?

In terms of fixture, the next few weeks aren’t especially prohibative: the Crows and Dogs are open contest sides and the Swannies made Long, Pendles and Sidebottom look like Kerr, Cousins and Judd last week. When it comes to deliberating how Finn goes from here, it’s not as if he’s got a proven premium scoring history he can revert to or recapture. This is truly his first year of relevancy. Spinning up to Daicos or Zerrett would net points but I think you’d be better served to just boost and get there with a 2D1U (two down, one up). Cleary and Gross are must haves, so I’d say just do it that way.

The most viable trade case of the bunch but still playing full time MID.

Disposals & DE:

• Round 0 [144]: 33 @ 85%
• Round 1 [104]: 31 @ 74%
• Round 3 [55]: 21 @ 62%
• Round 4 [72]: 25 @ 68%
• Round 5 [82]: 24 @ 75%

He’ll need to punch 28, frankly 30, to overcome his DE and CP ratio issues.

Tristan Xerri

What’s the problem?

Popped Xerri in here just to clarify what’s going on with him at the moment. He started the season like a house on fire with the signature bullocking around the ground presence and traditional HTA craft, opening with a 122 against the Dogs and honestly toweling Maxxy for 136. Then, in Round 3, he sustained a hamstring problem against the Crows which has since contained him to sitting out and doing laps at training and three subtons in a row. What that has done is compromised his ATG influence, which has been remarkable until this point. He’d have a baseline for 18~ touches and often lead the Roos for contested possessions and clearances. Cut to his most recent game: just the 9 nine touches. The previous two weeks, 18 and 17, so hitting that baseline but disposed off with less wheeling and confidence.

He’s labouring, clearly, but the official word from the club is it’s ‘hamstring awareness’ that he’s managing.

What’s the go?

Will Maxxy, who’s leaked 90k, put points on him? Probably, yeah. Especially with Freo and West Coast on the horizon. But unprompted? You don’t sideways a premo, least not in the rucks. Back in the fact he doesn’t have a structural or soft tissue injury profile. Plus, North surely wouldn’t be flogging him out there if he were that seriously inhibited. They back managing it in training and on gameday rather than giving him a spell.

If your CG is all in order, you somehow already have Daicos and you’re also grabbing Gross and Clearly, I suppose it could be sanctioned as an aggressive, pre-emptive move? But then again Maxxy was disappointing over the first three weeks and has returned to recognizable form.

To cap off both Xerri and this piece, the trade case for shipping off a premium at this stage, the beginning of upgrading season, has to be crisis scoring or injury. I don’t think it can be said that any of the trade cases presented warrant forging ahead. Are their problems with their scoring? Yes. Are there attainable alternatives who will cover them? Also yes. But better to acquire those alternatives straight up, reduce your OF rookie liability and forge ahead to full premo.