Most Traded – Round 10

Some interesting names bobbing up on the lists this round. Riley Bice appearing as the top traded OUT player would not have been on the radar the last couple of weeks, but with a BE of 25 more than his average of 77 it seems people are cashing in for one of the defensive upgrades on the INs list. Back at the SCG where his scoring seems to dip probably makes sense but take into account the lack of (fairly) reliable defensive rookies that you might want for coverage and Bice as D7 is not horrible.

Caleb Daniel jumps up the OUT list, I think more to do with a pretty poor last three quarters against the Lions where he only managed eight kicks and 51 points. My feeling on this is that he should not be your highest priority disposal target this week, and if he is, good on you as you are in good shape. That said, he has not dropped below 88 since round one and is predicted to go at 91 with a BE of 121 would lose about $13k based on those stats. He won’t be making money up till his bye, but he is up against The Tigers this week, a team he has a career average of 96 against and a career low of a modestly reasonable 64. I’m thinking it says hold for a least a week giving you time to sort out your round 12 strategy for his bye.

Caiden Cleary is a bit of an enigma. contested player who tackles and can score spike games. I see him as rookie worth keeping for a bit longer, mainly as a bench scorer. His BE is 55 (achievable) and he has reached it in 2/3 of his games. Only his third game at the SCG this year, so data limited, but home game against the Blues gives him opportunities.

He’s been our “chop shop” ruck and mostly flex, and he’s made us nearly $128k in three weeks, but is it time to permanently stop the flirtation and use Matt Flynn‘s cash for a serious upgrade, given most of us can swap him for any position. We would have said so at 3/4 time last week but a 50 point last ditch effort saw him rise to an 80 and make us a few grand. Now with a BE of 97 and West Coast looking to consolidate a dual ruck set up, cash looks to have stalled. It was not just a lack of ruck opportunities as he had three times more contests than Bailey Williams and still only scored 14 points more than his team mate. RoMo is his next oppo and he has a 140 in the bank against the Sainters but I still think he’s on the move. Top Ten percent coach list agrees, with Flynn being in their top four trade outs.

With a couple of 90s in his last two at home, I’m giving Elijah Hewett another opportunity to shine. Achievable BE of 46 and valuable DPP coming into the byes, I’m hoping he can step in to a couple of those byes via that DPP and The Weagles continuing to give him games. Certainly has the the talent, but if he’s your way of cashing in then go for it, after all it is prime upgrade season.

As for the others on the OUT list, all are pretty sure bets to be traded for better value. Clarry Oliver moving into a voluntary tagging role spells curtains for those that have hung on this long. Turn him into a value option while he still has some cash in him. The others are all rookies who have reached their peak, and I the case of SPP and Sam Davidson, have started to lose money. Problem still is the option of downgrades is not overly flush at this stage.

Moving on to the Most Traded IN list, Jack Sinclair dominates the list of premos just like he does his oppo, and for good reason, not the least of which included that cushy round 13 bye. A $63k price drop defines the fallen premo strategy and a BE of 106 would indicate he’s not falling any further. DPP is gold so jump on if you have the way. The Magician, Dane Zorko, exploded in calculations again with a dominant 166 against the Roos, and with price tag of $532K also fits the bill as a catchy fallen premo. A 53 BE means he will not be any cheaper, so now is the time as long as you can negotiate that tricky round 16 bye that includes his Lion friends, along with some premo Giants and the likes of Zerrett and Baz, and ignore the Kiddy Coleman factor in the near future.

Max Holmes has roared back into calculations following some down weeks. Personally, I cannot figure out how a player like him can fluctuate by 60 or 70 points in any give week, and it would be frustrating as an owner. But as is the trend with trading, a big week sees the spotlight back on Max. A low BE and under $500k probably says “pick me” and it is not just the “All Coaches” list, but a good representation from all the top percentage lists. The top 1% (of which I’m one BTW) has seen 85 coaches trade him in, and a further 1211 in tho top ten percent. I will not be one of those. I have always had a slight mistrust despite his 104 average and DPP, and in games against his his next oppo, The Power, he has never tonned up and has a very moderate career average of just 70.

The other big mover in the premo stakes is Josh Dunkley, who fits the fallen category by $63k. Averaging 114 and sitting at eight on the list of total scores and a BE of just 71, it pretty much says “pick me”. However, there are already two other Lions (Zorko and McCluggage) sitting in the top ten scorers overall, and chuck in Lachie Neale and Washcroft and the question becomes how many premo Lions is to many for that round 16 bye. If you are sorted, then Dunks is a bargain at $539k, and a really consistent performer.

Coaches down the pecking order, looking for a bargain have seemingly elevated CJ Jiath into some relevance following his two spike scores and a healthy -38 BE. Interesting to note that he does not appear on the top 1%, top 5% or top 10% lists, in a message I think says buyer beware. Looks great, can score but can go missing and has injury history, and coaches looking for the long term have avoided him. Don’t hate it but not going there.

Jed Bews leaps onto the list by virtue of a first up 95 and being a mature age player capable of more than rookies. A BE of -25 would see a price rise of around $53k with another 95, and $39k with his projection. My problem is I don’t see another 95 in the offing, and if history tells us anything, a revert to the 60s would be the norm. Has only scored 90+ on in five games over his career, and never scored above 90 against his next four opponents, with a best average of just 51.6 in that span. Add to the mix, any of Stewart, Henry, Kolodjashnij due back soon, and does he even hold his spot?

However, all this may be overthinking it due to the lack of downgrade options on the horizon. Hugh Boxshall is one I’ve liked since the pre season and is serious contender but is his spot any safer in the St Kilda side than any of the others that FURL flicks around his magnet board. I will be looking at him as my downgrade option to nab Jack Sinclair, but given the Saints play last, it may be an El-Hawli type to slot in for a Murphy Reid who I couldn’t trade out last week. El Hawli seems to have a wing spot for a while and his next game could be matching up against tiring Sam Davisdson. I don’t think we should go early on the other two, even though Simpson‘s role seems pretty good and he has been filling it in the twos, but there’s a few of those types at Freo and NOD is not far away.